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Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 matlamat) ✔ Betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Tidak ✔ Betul
- 1X2 draw Lukis ✔ Betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 1-1, 2-0 0-0 ✔ Betul
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.8
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Draw · Shahrdari Noshahr 0–0 Navad Urmia
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
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{
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{
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"prob_source": "poisson",
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{
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{
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"text": "-2.2%"
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{
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"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
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"market_prob_pct": 32.1,
"market_team": "Shahrdari Noshahr",
"model_prob_pct": 39.1,
"model_team": "Draw",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
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{
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"outcome": "home"
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{
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{
"edge_pp": 6.67,
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"label": "Navad Urmia",
"market_prob": 17.97,
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"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.47,
"fair_prob": 20.1,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 29.57,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
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{
"edge_pp": 9.47,
"fair_prob": 79.9,
"label": "Under 2.5",
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{
"edge_pp": -3.84,
"fair_prob": 30.0,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 33.84,
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"outcome": "yes"
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{
"edge_pp": 3.84,
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"label": "BTTS No",
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"outcome": "no"
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],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -13.7,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.23,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Shahrdari Noshahr",
"market_prob_pct": 49.93,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Shahrdari Noshahr"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 13.7,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Draw",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_prob_pct": 32.1,
"model_prob_pct": 39.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"reliability_headline": "Use caution",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_tier": "caution",
"summary": "The model and market both lean Draw, but neither indicates a dominant favourite. Draw and Shahrdari Noshahr remain plausible \u2014 this is a relatively open match.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning"
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -13.7,
"hero_label": "Shahrdari Noshahr",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Shahrdari Noshahr than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Shahrdari Noshahr.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Shahrdari Noshahr than the current fair estimate.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Shahrdari Noshahr."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Shahrdari Noshahr more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"Recent line movement on Shahrdari Noshahr (+0.0%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (6/7) supports the current market view on Shahrdari Noshahr."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"max_gap_pp": 13.7,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
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"breakdown": [
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"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 2.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 2.9,
"max_prob_pct": 39.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -13.7,
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"side": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.03,
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"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 32.1,
"side": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.67,
"fair_prob_pct": 24.64,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Navad Urmia",
"market_prob_pct": 17.97,
"side": "away"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Shahrdari Noshahr.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Shahrdari Noshahr (32.1%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Draw, Market \u2192 Shahrdari Noshahr, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 55.56,
"closing_odds": 1.8,
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 55.56,
"entry_odds": 1.8,
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
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{
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"id": "forecast_generated",
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"status": "done"
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{
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"id": "market_detected",
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},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "6/7",
"current_odds": 1.8,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 1.8,
"pick_team": "Shahrdari Noshahr",
"steam_score": 36,
"steam_team_name": "Shahrdari Noshahr",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 13.7,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 2726,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/2726.webp",
"away_team_name": "Navad Urmia",
"country_code": "IR",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ir.svg",
"country_name": "Iran",
"fixture_id": 1548217,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_country": "Iran",
"home_team_id": 18302,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/18302.webp",
"home_team_name": "Shahrdari Noshahr",
"league_country": "Iran",
"league_id": 291,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/291.webp",
"league_name": "Azadegan League",
"league_season": 2025,
"match_date": "2026-06-15 13:30:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_draw_above_30"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 5.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.18,
"best_odd": 5.0,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.012,
"ev": -0.0412,
"implied_prob": 0.1797,
"model_prob": 0.2465,
"p_final": 0.1918
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4028,
"best_odd": 2.8,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0282,
"ev": -0.0224,
"implied_prob": 0.321,
"model_prob": 0.3909,
"p_final": 0.3491
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.477,
"best_odd": 1.8,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0652,
"ev": -0.2186,
"implied_prob": 0.4993,
"model_prob": 0.3626,
"p_final": 0.4341
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 1.4,
"best_yes_odd": 2.8,
"edge_no": 0.0384,
"edge_yes": -0.0384,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.02,
"ev_yes": -0.16,
"implied_no": 0.6616,
"implied_yes": 0.3384,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 3.25,
"best_under_odd": 1.33,
"edge_over": -0.0947,
"edge_under": 0.0947,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.3468,
"ev_under": 0.0627,
"implied_over": 0.2957,
"implied_under": 0.7043,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 1.54,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0627,
"confidence": 4.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_draw_above_30"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 4.5
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u6781\u7aef\u9632\u5b88\uff08\u4f4e\u8fdb\u7403\uff09",
"scoring_type": "defensive",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.3,
"draw_prob": 0.3909,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3909,
"over_prob": 0.201,
"total_xg": 1.54,
"under_prob": 0.799,
"xg_diff": 0.2
},
"type": "defensive",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0282,
"ev": -0.0224,
"implied_prob": 0.321,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3909,
"side": "draw",
"side_label": "draw"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"edge": 0.0384,
"ev": -0.02,
"implied_prob": 0.6616,
"model_prob": 0.7,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0947,
"ev": 0.0627,
"implied_prob": 0.7043,
"model_prob": 0.799,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1548217,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0627,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.2465,
"draw": 0.3909,
"home": 0.3626
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Navad Urmia",
"home": "Shahrdari Noshahr"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.065126,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0627,
"implied_prob": 0.7043,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.799,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1
}
},
"fixture_id": 1548217,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-06-15T18:15:37.243656+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Langgan Sekarang
Azadegan League — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nassaji Mazandaran | 34 | 20 | 9 | 5 | 69 |
| 2 | Mes Shahr-e Babak | 34 | 19 | 11 | 4 | 68 |
| 3 | Sanat Naft | 34 | 16 | 12 | 6 | 60 |
| 4 | Saipa | 34 | 16 | 11 | 7 | 59 |
| 5 | Pars Jonoubi JAM | 34 | 16 | 12 | 6 | 57 |
| 6 | Havadar | 34 | 11 | 17 | 6 | 50 |
| 7 | Fard Alborz | 34 | 10 | 16 | 8 | 46 |
| 8 | Mes Kerman | 34 | 10 | 15 | 9 | 45 |
| 9 | Naft Bandar Abbas | 34 | 10 | 17 | 7 | 44 |
| 10 | Ario Eslamshahr | 34 | 9 | 16 | 9 | 43 |
| 11 | Be'sat Kermanshah | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 35 |
| 12 | Shenavarsazi Qeshm | 34 | 8 | 11 | 15 | 35 |
| 13 | Mes Soongoun | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 34 |
| 14 | Niroye Zamini | 34 | 8 | 12 | 14 | 33 |
| 15 | Naft Gachsaran | 34 | 7 | 14 | 13 | 32 |
| 16 | Shahrdari Noshahr | 34 | 5 | 15 | 14 | 27 |
| 17 | Navad Urmia | 34 | 4 | 12 | 18 | 24 |
| 18 | Damash Gilanian | 34 | 2 | 13 | 19 | 16 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nassaji Mazandaran | 34 | 48 | 17 | +31 | 69 |
| 2 | Pars Jonoubi JAM | 34 | 44 | 22 | +22 | 57 |
| 3 | Mes Shahr-e Babak | 34 | 41 | 14 | +27 | 68 |
| 4 | Sanat Naft | 34 | 37 | 21 | +16 | 60 |
| 5 | Havadar | 34 | 32 | 23 | +9 | 50 |
| 6 | Saipa | 34 | 30 | 18 | +12 | 59 |
| 7 | Niroye Zamini | 34 | 28 | 31 | -3 | 33 |
| 8 | Naft Bandar Abbas | 34 | 26 | 19 | +7 | 44 |
| 9 | Be'sat Kermanshah | 34 | 25 | 32 | -7 | 35 |
| 10 | Naft Gachsaran | 34 | 25 | 41 | -16 | 32 |
| 11 | Fard Alborz | 34 | 24 | 15 | +9 | 46 |
| 12 | Mes Kerman | 34 | 23 | 18 | +5 | 45 |
| 13 | Shenavarsazi Qeshm | 34 | 23 | 36 | -13 | 35 |
| 14 | Ario Eslamshahr | 34 | 19 | 18 | +1 | 43 |
| 15 | Shahrdari Noshahr | 34 | 18 | 29 | -11 | 27 |
| 16 | Mes Soongoun | 34 | 17 | 34 | -17 | 34 |
| 17 | Navad Urmia | 34 | 16 | 48 | -32 | 24 |
| 18 | Damash Gilanian | 34 | 16 | 56 | -40 | 16 |
