Uberaba vs CAP Statistics & Analysis

Jun 17, 2026 - 22:30
1 1.42
1 1.18
xG Accuracy: 85%
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Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa

Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.

  • Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
  • Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Betul
  • 1X2 Uberaba Lukis ✖ tak betul
  • Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 1-1 ✔ Betul

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 25, 2026 · 00:25 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1660491

Closing Odds 3.84
AI Fair Odds
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Uberaba 1–1 CAP
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Intelijen pasaran

Bacaan selepas pilihan utama: bagaimana suapan penutup berprioriti bergerak berbanding model.

Ringkasan pasaran

Pasaran kekal stabil menjelang sepakan. Tiada anjakan implied ketara antara PRE30 dan PRE1 pada snapshot berprioriti.

Walaupun pergerakan lewat kecil, model masih menilai CAP (1X2),Lebih 2.5 gol jauh melebihi implied snapshot penutupan — bacaan statik "model vs harga", bukan kejaran steam.

Model masih melebihi implied penutupan pada Lebih 2.5 gol kira-kira 11.2 mata peratus — isyarat salah harga paling jelas pada halaman ini.

Model vs implied penutup

Pasaran Model % Implied penutup % Jurang (pp)
Uberaba (1X2) 41.0 46.1 -5.1
Lukis (1X2) 29.4 30.8 -1.4
CAP (1X2) 29.6 23.2 +6.5
Lebih 2.5 gol 48.2 37.0 +11.2
Bawah 2.5 gol 51.8 63.0 -11.2
Apa maksudnya

Secara ringkas: model kira-kira 48.2% pada Lebih 2.5 gol, manakala snapshot penutup menunjukkan kira-kira 37.0%. Bezanya — kira-kira 11.2 mata peratus — ialah jurang model-vs-pasaran terbesar yang ditonjolkan di halaman ini.

Ringkas: "implied penutup" ialah kebarangkalian terbit daripada odds akhir yang ditangkap (selepas de-vig ringkas). "Jurang (pp)" = peratus model tolak implied tersebut, dalam mata peratus (pp).

Pergerakan garisan menjelang sepakan mula

Satu buku prioriti setiap snapshot (bukan semua). Laluan tangkapan: PRE30 → PRE1 · Buku: Pinnacle

Dalam kurungan pada lajur: Penutup = snapshot pertama tersedia ikut PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Awal = pertama dalam PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 yang berbeza daripada Penutup.

Odds terperinci dilipat di bawah — pergerakan implied (de-vig) boleh diabaikan.

Lihat jadual penuh baris demi baris
Pasaran Awal (PRE30) Penutup (PRE1) Δ tersirat (pp)
Uberaba (1X2) 1.93 1.93 0.0
Lukis (1X2) 2.89 2.89 0.0
CAP (1X2) 3.84 3.84 0.0
Lebih 2.5 gol 2.47 2.47 0.0
Bawah 2.5 gol 1.45 1.45 0.0

Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.

View technical JSON
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        {
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      ],
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        "comparison_disabled": false,
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          "suppress_value_language": false
        },
        "divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
        "divergence_level": "moderate",
        "divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
        "divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
        "divergence_tier": "moderate",
        "edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
        "edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
        "fair_confidence": "medium",
        "fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
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          "headline": "Balanced match",
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          "outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
          "paragraphs": [],
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          "tier": "balanced",
          "title": "Prediction Assessment",
          "validation_label": "Pass"
        },
        "forecast_certainty": {
          "note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
          "tier": "low",
          "tier_label": "Low"
        },
        "forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
        "has_market_probs": true,
        "hero_edge_pp": 6.53,
        "hero_label": "CAP",
        "hero_side": "away",
        "market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
        "market_agreement": "moderate",
        "market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
        "market_interpretation": {
          "bullets": [
            "Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
          ],
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          "gap_tier": "mild",
          "lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on CAP.",
          "note": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on CAP.",
          "paragraphs": [
            "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on CAP."
          ],
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        "market_narrative": {
          "paragraphs": [
            "The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on CAP.",
            "Pricing has been stable with broad sportsbook participation, suggesting settled consensus."
          ],
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        },
        "max_gap_pp": 6.53,
        "model_validation": {
          "score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
          "status": "pass"
        },
        "model_validation_label": "Pass",
        "outcome_separation": {
          "breakdown": [
            "No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
            "Favourite exceeds second outcome by 11.2 pp (at 40.9%)."
          ],
          "lead_gap_pp": 11.2,
          "max_prob_pct": 40.9,
          "note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
          "tier": "medium",
          "tier_label": "Medium"
        },
        "outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
        "rows": [
          {
            "edge_pp": -5.16,
            "fair_prob_pct": 40.91,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Uberaba",
            "market_prob_pct": 46.07,
            "side": "home"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": -1.37,
            "fair_prob_pct": 29.4,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Draw",
            "market_prob_pct": 30.77,
            "side": "draw"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": 6.53,
            "fair_prob_pct": 29.69,
            "is_hero": true,
            "label": "CAP",
            "market_prob_pct": 23.16,
            "side": "away"
          }
        ],
        "status": "strong_disagreement",
        "status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
        "steam_note": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on CAP.",
        "unavailable_note": ""
      },
      "interpretation": {
        "has_conflict": false,
        "paragraphs": [
          "The betting market strongly prefers Uberaba (46.1%).",
          "Both lean Uberaba, but the market prices them higher (46.1% vs model 40.9%). The edge remains modest and the match stays relatively open."
        ],
        "show": true,
        "title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
      },
      "lifecycle": {
        "closing_implied_pct": 26.04,
        "closing_odds": 3.84,
        "clv_pending": true,
        "clv_pp": 0.0,
        "clv_status": "pending",
        "context": "match",
        "current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
        "current_stage_detail": "",
        "current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
        "entry_implied_pct": 26.04,
        "entry_odds": 3.84,
        "model_validation_label": "Pass",
        "model_validation_status": "pass",
        "stages": [
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "forecast_generated",
            "label": "Prediction Generated",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "market_detected",
            "label": "Market Compared",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "model_validated",
            "label": "Validation Passed",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "PRE1",
            "id": "closing_recorded",
            "label": "Closing Recorded",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "clv_evaluated",
            "label": "CLV Evaluated",
            "status": "pending"
          }
        ]
      },
      "market_move_intelligence": {
        "show": false
      },
      "market_overview": {
        "breadth_display": "8/11",
        "current_odds": 1.91,
        "move_display": "+0.0%",
        "open_odds": 1.91,
        "pick_team": "Uberaba",
        "steam_score": 22,
        "steam_team_name": "Uberaba",
        "steam_tier": "C"
      },
      "premium_teaser": {
        "current_divergence_pp": 6.5,
        "divergence_label": "Current divergence",
        "title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
        "unlock_items": [
          "Historical similar matches",
          "Closing odds analysis",
          "CLV tracking",
          "Sharp money signals",
          "Market efficiency rating",
          "Historical model vs market results"
        ],
        "unlock_label": "Unlock"
      },
      "show": true
    },
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 7824,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/7824.webp",
      "away_team_name": "CAP",
      "country_code": "BR",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/br.svg",
      "country_name": "Brazil",
      "fixture_id": 1547682,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_country": "Brazil",
      "home_team_id": 18795,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/18795.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Uberaba",
      "league_country": "Brazil",
      "league_id": 619,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/619.webp",
      "league_name": "Mineiro - 2",
      "league_season": 2026,
      "match_date": "2026-06-17 22:30:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS",
      "venue_city": null,
      "venue_name": null
    },
    "match_decision": {
      "confidence": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.5
      },
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.2708,
            "best_odd": 3.84,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0176,
            "ev": -0.0432,
            "implied_prob": 0.2316,
            "model_prob": 0.2965,
            "p_final": 0.2492
          },
          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.4407,
            "best_odd": 2.89,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0061,
            "ev": -0.1283,
            "implied_prob": 0.3077,
            "model_prob": 0.2939,
            "p_final": 0.3016
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.5539,
            "best_odd": 1.93,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0284,
            "ev": -0.1655,
            "implied_prob": 0.4607,
            "model_prob": 0.4096,
            "p_final": 0.4324
          }
        },
        "btts": {
          "best_no_odd": 1.65,
          "best_yes_odd": 2.15,
          "edge_no": -0.1048,
          "edge_yes": 0.1048,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_no": -0.2427,
          "ev_yes": 0.1632,
          "implied_no": 0.5638,
          "implied_yes": 0.4362,
          "n_bookmakers": 5,
          "reliability": "medium"
        },
        "ou25": {
          "best_over_odd": 2.5,
          "best_under_odd": 1.5,
          "edge_over": 0.1053,
          "edge_under": -0.1053,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_over": 0.205,
          "ev_under": -0.223,
          "implied_over": 0.3767,
          "implied_under": 0.6233,
          "n_bookmakers": 9,
          "reliability": "medium"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 2.6,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.2.0"
      },
      "balanced_alternative": null,
      "best_tracked_ev": 0.205,
      "confidence": 6.5,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
          "pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Primary line identified (+1.0)",
          "Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
          "Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.5
      },
      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": false,
        "1x2_open_contest": true,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
      },
      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
      },
      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
        "scoring_type": "balanced",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.541,
          "draw_prob": 0.2939,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.4096,
          "over_prob": 0.482,
          "total_xg": 2.6,
          "under_prob": 0.518,
          "xg_diff": 0.24
        },
        "type": "balanced",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
      },
      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "decision": "no_bet",
          "edge": -0.0284,
          "ev": -0.1655,
          "implied_prob": 0.4607,
          "max_ev_side": "away",
          "model_prob": 0.4096,
          "side": "home",
          "side_label": "Uberaba"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.1048,
          "ev": 0.1632,
          "implied_prob": 0.4362,
          "model_prob": 0.541,
          "side": "yes",
          "value_side": "yes"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.1053,
          "ev": 0.205,
          "implied_prob": 0.3767,
          "model_prob": 0.482,
          "side": "over",
          "value_side": "over"
        }
      },
      "match_id": 1547682,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "bet",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": true,
        "code": "clear_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.205,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 1.0,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.2965,
        "draw": 0.2939,
        "home": 0.4096
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "no_ev_1x2"
      ],
      "secondary_pick": {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.205,
        "implied_prob": 0.3767,
        "market": "ou_2_5",
        "model_prob": 0.482,
        "not_dominant": true,
        "risk_band": "medium",
        "risk_tier": "secondary",
        "side": "over",
        "slot": "secondary"
      },
      "secondary_picks": [
        {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "ev": 0.205,
          "implied_prob": 0.3767,
          "market": "ou_2_5",
          "model_prob": 0.482,
          "not_dominant": true,
          "risk_band": "medium",
          "risk_tier": "secondary",
          "side": "over",
          "slot": "secondary"
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      ],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "CAP",
        "home": "Uberaba"
      },
      "top_pick": {
        "composite_score": 0.088291,
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.1632,
        "implied_prob": 0.4362,
        "market": "btts",
        "model_prob": 0.541,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "yes",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
      },
      "valid_markets_count": 2
    }
  },
  "fixture_id": 1547682,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-06-17T22:29:12.868073+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}

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Mineiro - 2 Mineiro - 2Kedudukan
# PASUKAN P M S K Mata
1 Uberaba 10 7 2 1 23
2 Valeriodoce 10 5 5 0 20
3 Democrata SL 10 5 2 3 17
4 BOA 10 5 2 3 17
5 Aymorés 10 4 4 2 16
6 Villa Nova 10 4 2 4 14
7 CAP 10 3 3 4 12
8 Mamoré 10 3 3 4 12
9 Guarani MG 10 3 3 4 12
10 Coimbra 10 2 4 4 10
11 Caldense 10 1 3 6 6
12 Ipatinga 10 1 1 8 4
# PASUKAN P J B +/- Mata
1 Democrata SL 10 19 10 +9 17
2 Uberaba 10 17 9 +8 23
3 Aymorés 10 17 9 +8 16
4 Villa Nova 10 17 12 +5 14
5 BOA 10 12 9 +3 17
6 Coimbra 10 12 12 0 10
7 Guarani MG 10 12 14 -2 12
8 Valeriodoce 10 9 4 +5 20
9 CAP 10 9 9 0 12
10 Mamoré 10 8 9 -1 12
11 Caldense 10 6 14 -8 6
12 Ipatinga 10 6 33 -27 4