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Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the model’s highlighted side (or lean) to what happened at full time.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Lebih / Kurang 2.5 Lebih 2.5 Lebih 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Guarani MG Guarani MG ✔ Correct
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 2-1 ✔ Correct
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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"btts_yes_prob": 0.539,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
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"home_win_prob_posterior": 0.421,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
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"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Winner : Mamor\u00e9",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Mamor\u00e9"
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"betting_insight": {
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"confidence": "low",
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"market": "1X2",
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"probabilities": {
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"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
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"risk_color": null,
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"stacked_market": null,
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"overround": 12.6,
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},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
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"away_failed_to_score": 1,
"away_played": 2,
"away_score_rate": 68.3,
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"home_score_rate": 76.5,
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"pick": "Yes",
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"source": "xG_dc",
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{
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{
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{
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{
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],
"source": "xG"
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"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
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{
"key": "12",
"label": "Guarani MG or Mamor\u00e9",
"prob": 69.9
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Mamor\u00e9",
"prob": 57.9
}
],
"pick_key": "1X",
"pick_label": "Guarani MG or Draw",
"pick_prob": 72.2
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 27.8,
"draw_pct": 30.1,
"home_pct": 42.1,
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},
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"confidence": "low",
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"market": "Guarani MG Win",
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}
},
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{
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{
"closing_implied_pct": 34.83,
"gap_pp": 13.37,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 65.17,
"gap_pp": -13.37,
"kind": "ou_u",
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}
],
"movement": [
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{
"closing": 2.72,
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{
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{
"closing": 2.62,
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{
"closing": 1.4,
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],
"movement_negligible": true,
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"top_value_gap": {
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},
"correct_score_insight": {
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},
"home_xg": 1.45,
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"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2393,
"ev_no_display": {
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"raw_pct": -23.9,
"text": "-23.9%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.1966,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 19.7,
"text": "+19.7%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "btts",
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"tier": "best",
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"yes_prob": 53.9
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
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"ev_over_display": {
"capped": true,
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"text": "+25%+"
},
"ev_under": -0.223,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -22.3,
"text": "-22.3%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
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"sort_key": 10236.52,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "no_bet",
"ev": -0.1027,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -10.3,
"text": "-10.3%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4113,
"max_ev": -0.0958,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -9.6,
"text": "-9.6%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4205,
"side_label": "Guarani MG",
"sort_key": 1776.05,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.2,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
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}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "7/10",
"alert_breadth_note": "7/10 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +20.4%",
"alert_team": "Mamor\u00e9",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 2.5,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -2.52,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 41.1,
"market_team": "Guarani MG",
"model_prob_pct": 42.1,
"model_team": "Guarani MG",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable forecast",
"status_line": "Model and market broadly aligned",
"steam_score": 90,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 0.97,
"fair_prob": 42.1,
"label": "Guarani MG",
"market_prob": 41.13,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.52,
"fair_prob": 30.14,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 32.66,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.55,
"fair_prob": 27.76,
"label": "Mamor\u00e9",
"market_prob": 26.21,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 12.54,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 35.66,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -12.54,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 64.34,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 11.16,
"fair_prob": 53.9,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 42.74,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -11.16,
"fair_prob": 46.1,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 57.26,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": -2.52,
"fair_prob_pct": 30.14,
"hero_side": "draw",
"hero_team_name": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 32.66,
"status": "market_efficient",
"steam_team_name": "Mamor\u00e9"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "market_efficient",
"max_gap_pp": 2.52,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Guarani MG",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_prob_pct": 41.1,
"model_prob_pct": 42.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"reliability_headline": "Reliable forecast",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_tier": "reliable",
"summary": "The model and market both lean Guarani MG, but neither indicates a dominant favourite. Draw and Draw remain plausible \u2014 this is a relatively open match.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Forecast Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass"
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -2.52,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"hero_side": "draw",
"market_activity": "Mamor\u00e9 odds lengthened \u2191 +20.4%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "However, Mamor\u00e9 has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 20.4%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Drift away from Mamor\u00e9 \u2014 odds lengthened by 20.4% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"However, Mamor\u00e9 has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 20.4%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Mamor\u00e9 \u2014 odds lengthened by 20.4% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"At the same time, Mamor\u00e9 has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 20.4%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (7/10) supports the current market view on Mamor\u00e9."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"max_gap_pp": 2.52,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 12.0 pp (at 42.1%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 12.0,
"max_prob_pct": 42.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 0.97,
"fair_prob_pct": 42.1,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Guarani MG",
"market_prob_pct": 41.13,
"side": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.52,
"fair_prob_pct": 30.14,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 32.66,
"side": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.55,
"fair_prob_pct": 27.76,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Mamor\u00e9",
"market_prob_pct": 26.21,
"side": "away"
}
],
"status": "market_efficient",
"status_label": "Market Efficient",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Mamor\u00e9 \u2014 odds lengthened by 20.4% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Guarani MG (41.1%).",
"However, Mamor\u00e9 has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2191 +20.4%, 7/10).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Guarani MG, Market \u2192 Guarani MG, Recent sharp money \u2192 Mamor\u00e9.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 36.76,
"closing_odds": 2.72,
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 36.76,
"entry_odds": 2.72,
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Forecast Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 7,
"books_total": 10,
"breadth_display": "7/10",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.25,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +20.4%",
"move_pct_abs": 20.4,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 16h",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"7/10 books synchronized on Mamor\u00e9 (20.4% steam, score 90) \u2014 high-conviction multi-book repricing beats isolated ticks.",
"Sharp sportsbooks led a meaningful repricing with broad market follow-through."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_path": {
"display": "3.54 \u2192 2.70 \u2192 3.25",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 16h",
"pick_team": "Mamor\u00e9",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.54"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.70"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.25"
}
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,3.7",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise"
},
"open_odds": 2.7,
"page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: Mamor\u00e9 \u2191 +20.4% market move detected",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Mamor\u00e9",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: Mamor\u00e9 \u2191 +20.4% market move detected",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "steam",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udd25",
"signal_key": "strong_steam",
"signal_label": "Strong steam",
"steam_score": 90,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "7/10",
"current_odds": 3.25,
"move_display": "\u2191 +20.4%",
"open_odds": 2.7,
"pick_team": "Mamor\u00e9",
"steam_score": 90,
"steam_team_name": "Mamor\u00e9",
"steam_tier": "A+"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 2.5,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 13082,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/13082.webp",
"away_team_name": "Mamor\u00e9",
"country_code": "BR",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/br.svg",
"country_name": "Brazil",
"fixture_id": 1547676,
"goals_away": 0,
"goals_home": 2,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_country": "Brazil",
"home_team_id": 12296,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/12296.webp",
"home_team_name": "Guarani MG",
"league_country": "Brazil",
"league_id": 619,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/619.webp",
"league_name": "Mineiro - 2",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-06-13 18:30:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Second Half",
"status_short": "2H",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_draw_above_30"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2928,
"best_odd": 3.39,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0047,
"ev": -0.0958,
"implied_prob": 0.2621,
"model_prob": 0.278,
"p_final": 0.2667
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.433,
"best_odd": 2.72,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0109,
"ev": -0.1412,
"implied_prob": 0.3266,
"model_prob": 0.3015,
"p_final": 0.3157
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4438,
"best_odd": 2.16,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0041,
"ev": -0.1027,
"implied_prob": 0.4113,
"model_prob": 0.4205,
"p_final": 0.4154
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 1.65,
"best_yes_odd": 2.22,
"edge_no": -0.1116,
"edge_yes": 0.1116,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2393,
"ev_yes": 0.1966,
"implied_no": 0.5726,
"implied_yes": 0.4274,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 2.62,
"best_under_odd": 1.5,
"edge_over": 0.1254,
"edge_under": -0.1254,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.2628,
"ev_under": -0.223,
"implied_over": 0.3566,
"implied_under": 0.6434,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2628,
"confidence": 6.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_draw_above_30",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.539,
"draw_prob": 0.3015,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4205,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.3
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0041,
"ev": -0.1027,
"implied_prob": 0.4113,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4205,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Guarani MG"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.1116,
"ev": 0.1966,
"implied_prob": 0.4274,
"model_prob": 0.539,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.1254,
"ev": 0.2628,
"implied_prob": 0.3566,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1547676,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2628,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.278,
"draw": 0.3015,
"home": 0.4205
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2628,
"implied_prob": 0.3566,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2628,
"implied_prob": 0.3566,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Mamor\u00e9",
"home": "Guarani MG"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.105967,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1966,
"implied_prob": 0.4274,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.539,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2
}
},
"fixture_id": 1547676,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-06-13T20:52:56.322694+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Bagaimana untuk menggunakan ini
- Fokus pada baris Utama apabila anda mahukan satu idea yang boleh diambil tindakan.
- Jangan parlay banyak picks tepi nipis bersama-sama;tepi tidak menambah dengan pasti.
- Anggap pukulan panjang sebagai permainan pilihan, bersaiz tinggi sahaja.
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