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Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the model’s highlighted side (or lean) to what happened at full time.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Lebih / Kurang 2.5 Kurang 2.5 Kurang 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Tidak ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Velo Clube U20 Lukis ✖ Incorrect
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-0 ✖ Incorrect
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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"dc_rho": -0.13,
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"fair_odds_away": 2.7,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.38,
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"home_predicted_xg": 1.26,
"home_win_prob": 0.3331,
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"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Double chance : draw or Velo Clube U20 and -3.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Velo Clube U20"
},
"away_xg": 1.34,
"betting_insight": {
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"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
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},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.41
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.41,
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"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
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"label": "Away",
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},
"betting_markets": {
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"away_failed_to_score": 2,
"away_played": 2,
"away_score_rate": 73.8,
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"home_failed_to_score": 0,
"home_played": 2,
"home_score_rate": 71.6,
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"pick": "Yes",
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"yes_prob": 54.5
},
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"home_expected": 1.26,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
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"label": "1-1",
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{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.0
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{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
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{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
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{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
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}
],
"source": "xG"
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"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Uni\u00e3o S\u00e3o Jo\u00e3o U20 or Draw",
"prob": 62.9
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Uni\u00e3o S\u00e3o Jo\u00e3o U20 or Velo Clube U20",
"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Velo Clube U20",
"prob": 66.7
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Uni\u00e3o S\u00e3o Jo\u00e3o U20 or Velo Clube U20",
"pick_prob": 70.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 37.1,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 33.3,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Velo Clube U20"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "-3.5",
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 0.0,
"confidence": "low",
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"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
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},
"prob_source": "poisson",
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"implied_prob": 41.5,
"is_value": false,
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"market": "Velo Clube U20 Win",
"model_prob": 37.0,
"odds": 2.41
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Velo Clube U20",
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"early_capture": "PRE30",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Uni\u00e3o S\u00e3o Jo\u00e3o U20",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
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{
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"kind": "1x2_h",
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{
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},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 36.89,
"gap_pp": 0.16,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 37.05
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 49.33,
"gap_pp": -1.13,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 50.67,
"gap_pp": 1.13,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
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{
"closing": 3.28,
"early": 3.28,
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{
"closing": 2.41,
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"kind": "1x2_a"
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{
"closing": 1.88,
"early": 1.88,
"implied_closing_pct": 49.33,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 49.33,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.83,
"early": 1.83,
"implied_closing_pct": 50.67,
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"implied_early_pct": 50.67,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
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"kind": "1x2_d"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
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"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
}
},
"home_xg": 1.26,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1661,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -16.6,
"text": "-16.6%"
},
"ev_under": 0.0774,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 7.7,
"text": "+7.7%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0774,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10219.66,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0127,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -1.3,
"text": "-1.3%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.1171,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -11.7,
"text": "-11.7%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": -0.0127,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 1796.825,
"tier": "bad_ev",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"decision": "no_bet",
"ev": -0.1091,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -10.9,
"text": "-10.9%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3689,
"max_ev": -0.0873,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -8.7,
"text": "-8.7%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"side_label": "Velo Clube U20",
"sort_key": 1778.175,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 2.7,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -2.69,
"hero_label": "Uni\u00e3o S\u00e3o Jo\u00e3o U20",
"market_prob_pct": 36.9,
"market_team": "Velo Clube U20",
"model_prob_pct": 37.1,
"model_team": "Velo Clube U20",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable forecast",
"status_line": "Model and market broadly aligned",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -2.69,
"fair_prob": 33.31,
"label": "Uni\u00e3o S\u00e3o Jo\u00e3o U20",
"market_prob": 36.0,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.52,
"fair_prob": 29.63,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 27.11,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.17,
"fair_prob": 37.06,
"label": "Velo Clube U20",
"market_prob": 36.89,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.94,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 54.14,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.94,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 45.86,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.83,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 57.33,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.83,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 42.67,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": -2.69,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.31,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Uni\u00e3o S\u00e3o Jo\u00e3o U20",
"market_prob_pct": 36.0,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "Uni\u00e3o S\u00e3o Jo\u00e3o U20"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 2.69,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Velo Clube U20",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_prob_pct": 36.9,
"model_prob_pct": 37.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"reliability_headline": "Reliable forecast",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_tier": "reliable",
"summary": "The model and market both lean Velo Clube U20, but neither indicates a dominant favourite. Draw and Uni\u00e3o S\u00e3o Jo\u00e3o U20 remain plausible \u2014 this is a relatively open match.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Forecast Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass"
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -2.69,
"hero_label": "Uni\u00e3o S\u00e3o Jo\u00e3o U20",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Uni\u00e3o S\u00e3o Jo\u00e3o U20.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Uni\u00e3o S\u00e3o Jo\u00e3o U20."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"Recent line movement on Uni\u00e3o S\u00e3o Jo\u00e3o U20 (+0.0%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (5/5) supports the current market view on Uni\u00e3o S\u00e3o Jo\u00e3o U20."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"max_gap_pp": 2.69,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 3.8 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 3.8,
"max_prob_pct": 37.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -2.69,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.31,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Uni\u00e3o S\u00e3o Jo\u00e3o U20",
"market_prob_pct": 36.0,
"side": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.52,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.63,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 27.11,
"side": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.17,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.06,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Velo Clube U20",
"market_prob_pct": 36.89,
"side": "away"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Uni\u00e3o S\u00e3o Jo\u00e3o U20.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Velo Clube U20 (36.9%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Velo Clube U20, Market \u2192 Velo Clube U20, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 40.49,
"closing_odds": 2.47,
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 40.49,
"entry_odds": 2.47,
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Forecast Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/5",
"current_odds": 3.1,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 3.1,
"pick_team": "Uni\u00e3o S\u00e3o Jo\u00e3o U20",
"steam_score": 30,
"steam_team_name": "Uni\u00e3o S\u00e3o Jo\u00e3o U20",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 2.7,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 13069,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/13069.webp",
"away_team_name": "Velo Clube U20",
"country_code": "BR",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/br.svg",
"country_name": "Brazil",
"fixture_id": 1547259,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_country": "Brazil",
"home_team_id": 18356,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/18356.webp",
"home_team_name": "Uni\u00e3o S\u00e3o Jo\u00e3o U20",
"league_country": "Brazil",
"league_id": 1086,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/1086.webp",
"league_name": "Paulista - U20",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-06-12 18:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4489,
"best_odd": 2.41,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0007,
"ev": -0.1091,
"implied_prob": 0.3689,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"p_final": 0.3697
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2888,
"best_odd": 3.28,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0072,
"ev": -0.0873,
"implied_prob": 0.2711,
"model_prob": 0.296,
"p_final": 0.2783
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4321,
"best_odd": 2.47,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0115,
"ev": -0.1391,
"implied_prob": 0.36,
"model_prob": 0.3335,
"p_final": 0.3485
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 2.17,
"best_yes_odd": 1.62,
"edge_no": 0.0283,
"edge_yes": -0.0283,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0127,
"ev_yes": -0.1171,
"implied_no": 0.4267,
"implied_yes": 0.5733,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 1.73,
"best_under_odd": 2.08,
"edge_over": -0.0594,
"edge_under": 0.0594,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1661,
"ev_under": 0.0774,
"implied_over": 0.5414,
"implied_under": 0.4586,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0774,
"confidence": 5.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"score": 5.0
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.296,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3705,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.08
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0007,
"ev": -0.1091,
"implied_prob": 0.3689,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Velo Clube U20"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"edge": 0.0283,
"ev": -0.0127,
"implied_prob": 0.4267,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0594,
"ev": 0.0774,
"implied_prob": 0.4586,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1547259,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0774,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3705,
"draw": 0.296,
"home": 0.3335
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Velo Clube U20",
"home": "Uni\u00e3o S\u00e3o Jo\u00e3o U20"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.028065,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0774,
"implied_prob": 0.4586,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1
}
},
"fixture_id": 1547259,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-06-12T17:59:23.019414+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Bagaimana untuk menggunakan ini
- Fokus pada baris Utama apabila anda mahukan satu idea yang boleh diambil tindakan.
- Jangan parlay banyak picks tepi nipis bersama-sama;tepi tidak menambah dengan pasti.
- Anggap pukulan panjang sebagai permainan pilihan, bersaiz tinggi sahaja.
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Brazil. Paulista - U20 Ramalan
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