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Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the model’s highlighted side (or lean) to what happened at full time.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Lebih / Kurang 2.5 Kurang 2.5 Kurang 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Tidak ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Guarani U20 Guarani U20 ✔ Correct
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 0-1 ✔ Correct
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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"away_win_prob": 0.4335,
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"btts_no_prob": 0.463,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.537,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
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"fair_odds_away": 2.31,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.43,
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"fair_odds_home": 3.64,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.13,
"home_win_prob": 0.275,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Winner : Guarani U20",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Guarani U20"
},
"away_xg": 1.47,
"betting_insight": {
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"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
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"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
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"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
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},
"market_comparison": [
{
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}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 1.56,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
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"label": "Away",
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"market_odds": 1.56,
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"prob_edge": -20.8,
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},
"betting_markets": {
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"away_played": 1,
"away_score_rate": 77.0,
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"home_played": 2,
"home_score_rate": 67.7,
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"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 53.7,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 53.7
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.47,
"home_expected": 1.13,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
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{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.9
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{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 9.1
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{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
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},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-2",
"prob": 8.0
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Flamengo SP U20 or Draw",
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},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Flamengo SP U20 or Guarani U20",
"prob": 70.9
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Guarani U20",
"prob": 72.5
}
],
"pick_key": "X2",
"pick_label": "Draw or Guarani U20",
"pick_prob": 72.5
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 43.4,
"draw_pct": 29.1,
"home_pct": 27.5,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Guarani U20"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 4.0,
"confidence": "low",
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"pick": "Under 2.5",
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"prob_source": "poisson",
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"market": "Flamengo SP U20 Win",
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}
},
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"home_team": "Flamengo SP U20",
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"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
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{
"closing_implied_pct": 24.61,
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{
"closing_implied_pct": 56.78,
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},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 51.08,
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"kind": "ou_o",
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},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 48.92,
"gap_pp": 2.88,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
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"implied_early_pct": 18.61,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.6,
"early": 3.6,
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"implied_early_pct": 24.61,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 1.56,
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"kind": "1x2_a"
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{
"closing": 1.81,
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"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.89,
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"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 8.9,
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}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.3
}
},
"home_xg": 1.13,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0972,
"ev_no_display": {
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"raw_pct": -9.7,
"text": "-9.7%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.0472,
"ev_yes_display": {
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"raw_pct": 4.7,
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},
"featured": true,
"id": "btts",
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"tier": "best",
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},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.0842,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -8.4,
"text": "-8.4%"
},
"ev_under": 0.036,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 3.6,
"text": "+3.6%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.036,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10032.4,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "no_bet",
"ev": -0.2147,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
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"raw_pct": -21.5,
"text": "-21.5%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.5678,
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"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -4.1,
"text": "-4.1%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4333,
"side_label": "Guarani U20",
"sort_key": 1789.775,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 816.9,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.3
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 13.4,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -13.43,
"hero_label": "Guarani U20",
"market_prob_pct": 56.8,
"market_team": "Guarani U20",
"model_prob_pct": 43.4,
"model_team": "Guarani U20",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 8.89,
"fair_prob": 27.5,
"label": "Flamengo SP U20",
"market_prob": 18.61,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.54,
"fair_prob": 29.15,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 24.61,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -13.43,
"fair_prob": 43.35,
"label": "Guarani U20",
"market_prob": 56.78,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.78,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 51.98,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.78,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 48.02,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.37,
"fair_prob": 53.7,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 49.33,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.37,
"fair_prob": 46.3,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 50.67,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -13.43,
"fair_prob_pct": 43.35,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Guarani U20",
"market_prob_pct": 56.78,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Flamengo SP U20"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 13.43,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Guarani U20",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_prob_pct": 56.8,
"model_prob_pct": 43.4,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"reliability_headline": "Use caution",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_tier": "caution",
"summary": "Both lean Guarani U20, but the market prices them higher (56.8% vs model 43.4%). The edge remains modest and the match stays relatively open.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Forecast Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning"
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -13.43,
"hero_label": "Guarani U20",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "Current market behavior suggests broad agreement that Guarani U20 is the dominant side.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Guarani U20 than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "The market is materially more optimistic about Guarani U20 than the current fair estimate.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Guarani U20 than the current fair estimate.",
"Current market behavior suggests broad agreement that Guarani U20 is the dominant side."
],
"quiet_market": true,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Guarani U20 more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"Pricing has been stable with broad sportsbook participation, suggesting settled consensus.",
"The market materially disagrees with the model on Guarani U20 (pricing gap 13.4 pp). The market may be pricing squad quality, tournament context, or lineup strength beyond the Elo framework."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"max_gap_pp": 13.43,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 14.2 pp (at 43.4%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 14.2,
"max_prob_pct": 43.4,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 8.89,
"fair_prob_pct": 27.5,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Flamengo SP U20",
"market_prob_pct": 18.61,
"side": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.54,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.15,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 24.61,
"side": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -13.43,
"fair_prob_pct": 43.35,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Guarani U20",
"market_prob_pct": 56.78,
"side": "away"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "The market is materially more optimistic about Guarani U20 than the current fair estimate.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Guarani U20 (56.8%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Guarani U20, Market \u2192 Guarani U20, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 64.1,
"closing_odds": 1.56,
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 64.1,
"entry_odds": 1.56,
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Forecast Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "8/9",
"current_odds": 5.25,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 5.25,
"pick_team": "Flamengo SP U20",
"steam_score": 27,
"steam_team_name": "Flamengo SP U20",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 13.4,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 13012,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/13012.webp",
"away_team_name": "Guarani U20",
"country_code": "BR",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/br.svg",
"country_name": "Brazil",
"fixture_id": 1547251,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_country": "Brazil",
"home_team_id": 13007,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/13007.webp",
"home_team_name": "Flamengo SP U20",
"league_country": "Brazil",
"league_id": 1086,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/1086.webp",
"league_name": "Paulista - U20",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-06-12 18:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4789,
"best_odd": 1.56,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0644,
"ev": -0.2147,
"implied_prob": 0.5678,
"model_prob": 0.4333,
"p_final": 0.5034
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2794,
"best_odd": 3.6,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0128,
"ev": -0.0682,
"implied_prob": 0.2461,
"model_prob": 0.2918,
"p_final": 0.2588
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.1733,
"best_odd": 4.76,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0154,
"ev": -0.0409,
"implied_prob": 0.1861,
"model_prob": 0.275,
"p_final": 0.2015
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 1.95,
"best_yes_odd": 1.95,
"edge_no": -0.0437,
"edge_yes": 0.0437,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0972,
"ev_yes": 0.0472,
"implied_no": 0.5067,
"implied_yes": 0.4933,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 1.9,
"best_under_odd": 2.0,
"edge_over": -0.0378,
"edge_under": 0.0378,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.0842,
"ev_under": 0.036,
"implied_over": 0.5198,
"implied_under": 0.4802,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0472,
"confidence": 4.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 4.5
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "C",
"stake_factor": 0.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.537,
"draw_prob": 0.2918,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4333,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.34
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0472,
"hero_display_only": true,
"implied_prob": 0.4933,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.537,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "hero_display",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "hero_display"
},
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0644,
"ev": -0.2147,
"implied_prob": 0.5678,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.4333,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Guarani U20"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0437,
"ev": 0.0472,
"implied_prob": 0.4933,
"model_prob": 0.537,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0378,
"ev": 0.036,
"implied_prob": 0.4802,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1547251,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": false,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"max_valid_ev": 0.0472,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.4333,
"draw": 0.2918,
"home": 0.275
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Guarani U20",
"home": "Flamengo SP U20"
},
"top_pick": null,
"valid_markets_count": 2
}
},
"fixture_id": 1547251,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-06-12T17:59:11.811560+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Bagaimana untuk menggunakan ini
- Fokus pada baris Utama apabila anda mahukan satu idea yang boleh diambil tindakan.
- Jangan parlay banyak picks tepi nipis bersama-sama;tepi tidak menambah dengan pasti.
- Anggap pukulan panjang sebagai permainan pilihan, bersaiz tinggi sahaja.
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
Dapatkan Ramalan Premium untuk Flamengo SP U20 & Guarani U20!
Buka analisis mendalam, tip pertaruhan eksklusif, dan ramalan perlawanan dengan perkhidmatan langganan premium kami.
Langgan Sekarang
Brazil. Paulista - U20 Ramalan
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