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Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 matlamat) ✔ Betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Farroupilha Bagé ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Betul
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.96
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Bagé win · Farroupilha 1–2 Bagé
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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"facts": {
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"dc_rho": -0.13,
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"fair_odds_away": 2.92,
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"fair_odds_draw": 3.37,
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"fair_odds_home": 2.77,
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"home_predicted_xg": 1.32,
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"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
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"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Double chance : draw or Bag\u00e9 and -3.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Bag\u00e9"
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"away_xg": 1.28,
"betting_insight": {
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"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.1025,
"edge_gap": 0.0185,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.2584,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
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"draw": 29.7,
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"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
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"market_comparison": [
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"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 3.48
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"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 3.48,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
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"label": "Home",
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"overround": 11.2,
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"away_played": 5,
"away_score_rate": 72.2,
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"away": 1,
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"options": [
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"key": "1X",
"label": "Farroupilha or Draw",
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{
"key": "12",
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{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Bag\u00e9",
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],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Farroupilha or Bag\u00e9",
"pick_prob": 70.3
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"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 34.2,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 36.1,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Farroupilha"
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"over_under": {
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"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 0.8,
"confidence": "low",
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"closing_capture": "PRE1",
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"early_capture": "PRE30",
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"closing_implied_pct": 28.28,
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"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 34.24
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{
"closing_implied_pct": 33.82,
"gap_pp": 14.38,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
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{
"closing_implied_pct": 66.18,
"gap_pp": -14.38,
"kind": "ou_u",
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"movement": [
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"closing": 3.48,
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"implied_delta_pp": -0.1,
"implied_early_pct": 25.95,
"kind": "1x2_h"
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"closing": 3.18,
"early": 3.16,
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{
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"ev_no": -0.2629,
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"text": "-26.3%"
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"ev_yes": 0.3298,
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"raw_pct": 33.0,
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"featured": true,
"id": "btts",
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"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.5
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{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.3014,
"ev_over_display": {
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"raw_pct": 30.1,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"ev_under": -0.2489,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -24.9,
"text": "-24.9%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.3014,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10271.26,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "no_bet",
"ev": -0.0102,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -1.0,
"text": "-1.0%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
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"max_ev": -0.0102,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -1.0,
"text": "-1.0%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
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"sort_key": 1797.45,
"tier": "bad_ev"
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{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
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],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "7/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "7/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -16.9%",
"alert_team": "Farroupilha",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 11.6,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -11.64,
"hero_label": "Bag\u00e9",
"market_prob_pct": 25.8,
"market_team": "Bag\u00e9",
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"model_team": "Farroupilha",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 85,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 10.27,
"fair_prob": 36.11,
"label": "Farroupilha",
"market_prob": 25.84,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.37,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 28.28,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -11.64,
"fair_prob": 34.24,
"label": "Bag\u00e9",
"market_prob": 45.88,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 13.49,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 34.71,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -13.49,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 65.29,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 14.4,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 40.1,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -14.4,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 59.9,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -11.64,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Bag\u00e9",
"market_prob_pct": 45.88,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Farroupilha"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 11.64,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Farroupilha",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_prob_pct": 25.8,
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"reliability_headline": "Use caution",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_tier": "caution",
"summary": "The model and market both lean Farroupilha, but neither indicates a dominant favourite. Draw and Bag\u00e9 remain plausible \u2014 this is a relatively open match.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning"
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -11.64,
"hero_label": "Bag\u00e9",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Farroupilha odds shortened \u2193 -16.9%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Farroupilha, with odds shortening by 16.9%.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Bag\u00e9 than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Buying interest on Farroupilha \u2014 odds shortened by 16.9%.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Bag\u00e9 than the current fair estimate.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Farroupilha, with odds shortening by 16.9%.",
"Buying interest on Farroupilha \u2014 odds shortened by 16.9%."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Bag\u00e9 more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Farroupilha has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 16.9%.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (7/9) supports the current market view on Farroupilha."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"max_gap_pp": 11.64,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 1.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 1.9,
"max_prob_pct": 36.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 10.27,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Farroupilha",
"market_prob_pct": 25.84,
"side": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.37,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 28.28,
"side": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -11.64,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Bag\u00e9",
"market_prob_pct": 45.88,
"side": "away"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Buying interest on Farroupilha \u2014 odds shortened by 16.9%.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Bag\u00e9 (25.8%).",
"However, Farroupilha has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -16.9%, 7/9).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Farroupilha, Market \u2192 Bag\u00e9, Recent sharp money \u2192 Farroupilha.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 51.02,
"closing_odds": 1.96,
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 51.02,
"entry_odds": 1.96,
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 7,
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "7/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.6,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -16.9%",
"move_pct_abs": 16.9,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 12h",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"7/9 books synchronized on Farroupilha (16.9% steam, score 85) \u2014 high-conviction multi-book repricing beats isolated ticks.",
"Sharp sportsbooks led a meaningful repricing with broad market follow-through."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_path": {
"display": "5.20 \u2192 3.42 \u2192 3.60",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 12h",
"pick_team": "Farroupilha",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "5.20"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.42"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.60"
}
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 18.7,16.8 37.3,18.0 56.0,14.4",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop"
},
"open_odds": 4.33,
"page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: Farroupilha \u2193 -16.9% market move detected",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Farroupilha",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: Farroupilha \u2193 -16.9% market move detected",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "steam",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udd25",
"signal_key": "strong_steam",
"signal_label": "Strong steam",
"steam_score": 85,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "7/9",
"current_odds": 3.6,
"move_display": "\u2193 -16.9%",
"open_odds": 4.33,
"pick_team": "Farroupilha",
"steam_score": 85,
"steam_team_name": "Farroupilha",
"steam_tier": "A+"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 11.6,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 10044,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/10044.webp",
"away_team_name": "Bag\u00e9",
"country_code": "BR",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/br.svg",
"country_name": "Brazil",
"fixture_id": 1544588,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_country": "Brazil",
"home_team_id": 25078,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/25078.webp",
"home_team_name": "Farroupilha",
"league_country": "Brazil",
"league_id": 1158,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/1158.webp",
"league_name": "Copa Ga\u00facha",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-06-17 18:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4952,
"best_odd": 1.96,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0577,
"ev": -0.2137,
"implied_prob": 0.4588,
"model_prob": 0.3424,
"p_final": 0.4012
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2938,
"best_odd": 3.18,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0041,
"ev": -0.0878,
"implied_prob": 0.2828,
"model_prob": 0.2967,
"p_final": 0.2869
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2539,
"best_odd": 3.48,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.026,
"ev": -0.0102,
"implied_prob": 0.2584,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"p_final": 0.2844
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 1.62,
"best_yes_odd": 2.44,
"edge_no": -0.144,
"edge_yes": 0.144,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2629,
"ev_yes": 0.3298,
"implied_no": 0.599,
"implied_yes": 0.401,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 2.7,
"best_under_odd": 1.45,
"edge_over": 0.1349,
"edge_under": -0.1349,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.3014,
"ev_under": -0.2489,
"implied_over": 0.3471,
"implied_under": 0.6529,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.3298,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2967,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3609,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.04
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.026,
"ev": -0.0102,
"implied_prob": 0.2584,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Farroupilha"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.144,
"ev": 0.3298,
"implied_prob": 0.401,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.1349,
"ev": 0.3014,
"implied_prob": 0.3471,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1544588,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.3298,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3424,
"draw": 0.2967,
"home": 0.3609
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3014,
"implied_prob": 0.3471,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3014,
"implied_prob": 0.3471,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Bag\u00e9",
"home": "Farroupilha"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.179741,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3298,
"implied_prob": 0.401,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2
}
},
"fixture_id": 1544588,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-06-17T18:01:04.855660+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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