HPS vs Kiffen Statistics & Analysis

Jun 12, 2026 - 16:00
1 1.30
2 1.30
xG Accuracy: 76%
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Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa

Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.

  • Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
  • Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Ya ✖ tak betul
  • 1X2 HPS Kiffen ✖ tak betul
  • Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-2 ✔ Betul

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 01, 2026 · 04:23 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2692675

Closing Odds 2.16
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Kiffen win · HPS 1–2 Kiffen
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Intelijen pasaran

Bacaan selepas pilihan utama: bagaimana suapan penutup berprioriti bergerak berbanding model.

Ringkasan pasaran

Pasaran kekal stabil menjelang sepakan. Tiada anjakan implied ketara antara PRE30 dan PRE1 pada snapshot berprioriti.

Walaupun pergerakan lewat kecil, model masih menilai HPS (1X2),Lukis (1X2),Bawah 2.5 gol jauh melebihi implied snapshot penutupan — bacaan statik "model vs harga", bukan kejaran steam.

Model masih melebihi implied penutupan pada Bawah 2.5 gol kira-kira 13.1 mata peratus — isyarat salah harga paling jelas pada halaman ini.

Model vs implied penutup

Pasaran Model % Implied penutup % Jurang (pp)
HPS (1X2) 35.2 31.0 +4.2
Lukis (1X2) 29.6 27.1 +2.5
Kiffen (1X2) 35.2 41.9 -6.7
Lebih 2.5 gol 48.2 61.3 -13.1
Bawah 2.5 gol 51.8 38.7 +13.1
Apa maksudnya

Secara ringkas: model kira-kira 51.8% pada Bawah 2.5 gol, manakala snapshot penutup menunjukkan kira-kira 38.7%. Bezanya — kira-kira 13.1 mata peratus — ialah jurang model-vs-pasaran terbesar yang ditonjolkan di halaman ini.

Ringkas: "implied penutup" ialah kebarangkalian terbit daripada odds akhir yang ditangkap (selepas de-vig ringkas). "Jurang (pp)" = peratus model tolak implied tersebut, dalam mata peratus (pp).

Pergerakan garisan menjelang sepakan mula

Satu buku prioriti setiap snapshot (bukan semua). Laluan tangkapan: PRE30 → PRE1 · Buku: Pinnacle

Dalam kurungan pada lajur: Penutup = snapshot pertama tersedia ikut PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Awal = pertama dalam PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 yang berbeza daripada Penutup.

Odds terperinci dilipat di bawah — pergerakan implied (de-vig) boleh diabaikan.

Lihat jadual penuh baris demi baris
Pasaran Awal (PRE30) Penutup (PRE1) Δ tersirat (pp)
HPS (1X2) 2.92 2.92 0.0
Lukis (1X2) 3.34 3.34 0.0
Kiffen (1X2) 2.16 2.16 0.0
Lebih 2.5 gol 1.51 1.51 0.0
Bawah 2.5 gol 2.39 2.39 0.0

Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.

View technical JSON
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        "home_failed_to_score": 0,
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        ],
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      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
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            "key": "12",
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    "homepage_pick": null,
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        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_over": -0.2529,
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        "ev_under": 0.2432,
        "ev_under_display": {
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    ],
    "market_intelligence": {
      "betting_signal": {
        "alert_breadth": "8/12",
        "alert_breadth_note": "8/12 sportsbooks confirmed",
        "alert_move": "\u2191 +8.0%",
        "alert_team": "HPS",
        "alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
        "divergence_pp": 6.7,
        "has_alert": true,
        "hero_edge_pp": -6.73,
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        "steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
        "steam_tier": "B",
        "title": "Betting Signal"
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          "outcome": "home"
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        {
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          "market_prob": 27.1,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "draw"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -6.73,
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          "outcome": "away"
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        {
          "edge_pp": -12.59,
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          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "over"
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        {
          "edge_pp": 12.59,
          "fair_prob": 51.8,
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          "market_prob": 39.21,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "under"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -9.45,
          "fair_prob": 54.5,
          "label": "BTTS Yes",
          "market_prob": 63.95,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "yes"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 9.45,
          "fair_prob": 45.5,
          "label": "BTTS No",
          "market_prob": 36.05,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "no"
        }
      ],
      "edge_snapshot": {
        "edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
        "edge_pp": -6.73,
        "fair_prob_pct": 35.17,
        "hero_side": "away",
        "hero_team_name": "Kiffen",
        "market_prob_pct": 41.9,
        "status": "market_ahead",
        "steam_team_name": "HPS"
      },
      "fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
      "fair_vs_market": {
        "comparison_available": true,
        "comparison_disabled": false,
        "degraded_note": "",
        "divergence_guard": {
          "divergence_level": "moderate",
          "edge_status": "market_ahead",
          "max_gap_pp": 6.73,
          "suppress_hero": false,
          "suppress_value_language": false
        },
        "divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
        "divergence_level": "moderate",
        "divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
        "divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
        "divergence_tier": "moderate",
        "edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
        "edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
        "fair_confidence": "medium",
        "fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
        "fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
        "forecast_assessment": {
          "favourite_class": "Balanced match",
          "favourite_label": "HPS",
          "forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
          "headline": "Balanced match",
          "market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
          "market_prob_pct": 31.0,
          "model_prob_pct": 35.2,
          "outcome_separation_tier": "low",
          "paragraphs": [],
          "reliability_headline": "Reliable forecast",
          "reliability_icon": "\u2713",
          "reliability_tier": "reliable",
          "summary": "The model and market both lean HPS, but neither indicates a dominant favourite. Draw and Kiffen remain plausible \u2014 this is a relatively open match.",
          "tier": "balanced",
          "title": "Forecast Assessment",
          "validation_label": "Pass"
        },
        "forecast_certainty": {
          "note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
          "tier": "low",
          "tier_label": "Low"
        },
        "forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
        "has_market_probs": true,
        "hero_edge_pp": -6.73,
        "hero_label": "Kiffen",
        "hero_side": "away",
        "market_activity": "HPS odds lengthened \u2191 +8.0%.",
        "market_agreement": "moderate",
        "market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
        "market_interpretation": {
          "bullets": [
            "Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
          ],
          "follow_up": "However, HPS has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 8.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
          "gap_tier": "mild",
          "lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Kiffen. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
          "note": "Drift away from HPS \u2014 odds lengthened by 8.0% (weakening support).",
          "paragraphs": [
            "The market and model broadly agree on Kiffen. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
            "However, HPS has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 8.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
            "Drift away from HPS \u2014 odds lengthened by 8.0% (weakening support)."
          ],
          "quiet_market": false,
          "title": "Market Assessment"
        },
        "market_narrative": {
          "paragraphs": [
            "The market still prices Kiffen above the current fair estimate.",
            "At the same time, HPS has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 8.0%, suggesting weakening support."
          ],
          "title": "Current Market Narrative"
        },
        "max_gap_pp": 6.73,
        "model_validation": {
          "score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
          "status": "pass"
        },
        "model_validation_label": "Pass",
        "outcome_separation": {
          "breakdown": [
            "No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
            "Top two 1X2 outcomes within 0.0 percentage points."
          ],
          "lead_gap_pp": 0.0,
          "max_prob_pct": 35.2,
          "note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
          "tier": "low",
          "tier_label": "Low"
        },
        "outcome_separation_label": "Low",
        "rows": [
          {
            "edge_pp": 4.17,
            "fair_prob_pct": 35.17,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "HPS",
            "market_prob_pct": 31.0,
            "side": "home"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": 2.55,
            "fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Draw",
            "market_prob_pct": 27.1,
            "side": "draw"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": -6.73,
            "fair_prob_pct": 35.17,
            "is_hero": true,
            "label": "Kiffen",
            "market_prob_pct": 41.9,
            "side": "away"
          }
        ],
        "status": "market_ahead",
        "status_label": "Market Ahead",
        "steam_note": "Drift away from HPS \u2014 odds lengthened by 8.0% (weakening support).",
        "unavailable_note": ""
      },
      "interpretation": {
        "has_conflict": true,
        "paragraphs": [
          "The betting market strongly prefers Kiffen (31.0%).",
          "However, HPS has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2191 +8.0%, 8/12).",
          "This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 HPS, Market \u2192 Kiffen, Recent sharp money \u2192 HPS.",
          "Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
        ],
        "show": true,
        "title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
      },
      "lifecycle": {
        "closing_implied_pct": 46.3,
        "closing_odds": 2.16,
        "clv_pending": true,
        "clv_pp": 0.0,
        "clv_status": "pending",
        "context": "match",
        "current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
        "current_stage_detail": "",
        "current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
        "entry_implied_pct": 46.3,
        "entry_odds": 2.16,
        "model_validation_label": "Pass",
        "model_validation_status": "pass",
        "stages": [
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "forecast_generated",
            "label": "Forecast Generated",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "market_detected",
            "label": "Market Compared",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "model_validated",
            "label": "Validation Passed",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "PRE1",
            "id": "closing_recorded",
            "label": "Closing Recorded",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "clv_evaluated",
            "label": "CLV Evaluated",
            "status": "pending"
          }
        ]
      },
      "market_move_intelligence": {
        "books_reacting": 8,
        "books_total": 12,
        "breadth_display": "8/12",
        "clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
        "clv_status": "evaluated",
        "current_odds": 2.7,
        "move_context": "Largest move today",
        "move_display": "\u2191 +8.0%",
        "move_pct_abs": 8.0,
        "move_speed_icon": "\u2194",
        "move_speed_label": "Gradual move over 7h 59m",
        "narrative_paragraphs": [
          "Multi-book steam on HPS (8.0%, 8/12) \u2014 aligned shortening, not a single-book blip.",
          "A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
        ],
        "narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
        "odds_path": {
          "display": "2.95 \u2192 2.35 \u2192 2.70",
          "move_speed_icon": "\u2194",
          "move_speed_label": "Gradual move over 7h 59m",
          "pick_team": "HPS",
          "points": [
            {
              "label_key": "open",
              "value": "2.95"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "extreme",
              "value": "2.35"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "current",
              "value": "2.70"
            }
          ],
          "sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,9.4",
          "sparkline_trend": "up",
          "sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise"
        },
        "open_odds": 2.5,
        "page_alert_line": "Strong steam move across 8/12 sportsbooks on HPS",
        "phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
        "phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
        "pick_team": "HPS",
        "ref_book": "Bet365",
        "seo_title_alert": "",
        "sharp_leader": "Betfair",
        "show": true,
        "signal_badge_class": "confirm",
        "signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc8",
        "signal_key": "market_steam",
        "signal_label": "Steam",
        "steam_score": 54,
        "steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
        "steam_tier": "B",
        "title": "Market Move Intelligence"
      },
      "market_overview": {
        "breadth_display": "8/12",
        "current_odds": 2.7,
        "move_display": "\u2191 +8.0%",
        "open_odds": 2.5,
        "pick_team": "HPS",
        "steam_score": 54,
        "steam_team_name": "HPS",
        "steam_tier": "B"
      },
      "premium_teaser": {
        "current_divergence_pp": 6.7,
        "divergence_label": "Current divergence",
        "title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
        "unlock_items": [
          "Historical similar matches",
          "Closing odds analysis",
          "CLV tracking",
          "Sharp money signals",
          "Market efficiency rating",
          "Historical model vs market results"
        ],
        "unlock_label": "Unlock"
      },
      "show": true
    },
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 9174,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/9174.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Kiffen",
      "country_code": "FI",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/fi.svg",
      "country_name": "Finland",
      "fixture_id": 1541621,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_country": "Finland",
      "home_team_id": 13517,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/13517.webp",
      "home_team_name": "HPS",
      "league_country": "Finland",
      "league_id": 247,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/247.webp",
      "league_name": "Kakkonen - Lohko A",
      "league_season": 2026,
      "match_date": "2026-06-12 16:00:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS",
      "venue_city": null,
      "venue_name": "Briotech Arena"
    },
    "match_decision": {
      "confidence": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
          "Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.0
      },
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.4046,
            "best_odd": 2.16,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0272,
            "ev": -0.1537,
            "implied_prob": 0.419,
            "model_prob": 0.3518,
            "p_final": 0.3918
          },
          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.2885,
            "best_odd": 3.34,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0073,
            "ev": -0.0703,
            "implied_prob": 0.271,
            "model_prob": 0.2965,
            "p_final": 0.2783
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.4218,
            "best_odd": 2.92,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0176,
            "ev": -0.0434,
            "implied_prob": 0.31,
            "model_prob": 0.3518,
            "p_final": 0.3276
          }
        },
        "btts": {
          "best_no_odd": 2.62,
          "best_yes_odd": 1.5,
          "edge_no": 0.0945,
          "edge_yes": -0.0945,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_no": 0.1921,
          "ev_yes": -0.1825,
          "implied_no": 0.3605,
          "implied_yes": 0.6395,
          "n_bookmakers": 6,
          "reliability": "medium"
        },
        "ou25": {
          "best_over_odd": 1.55,
          "best_under_odd": 2.4,
          "edge_over": -0.1259,
          "edge_under": 0.1259,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_over": -0.2529,
          "ev_under": 0.2432,
          "implied_over": 0.6079,
          "implied_under": 0.3921,
          "n_bookmakers": 7,
          "reliability": "medium"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 2.6,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.2.0"
      },
      "balanced_alternative": null,
      "best_tracked_ev": 0.2432,
      "confidence": 6.5,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
          "pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Primary line identified (+1.0)",
          "Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
          "Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.5
      },
      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": false,
        "1x2_open_contest": true,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
      },
      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
      },
      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
        "scoring_type": "balanced",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
          "draw_prob": 0.2965,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.3518,
          "over_prob": 0.482,
          "total_xg": 2.6,
          "under_prob": 0.518,
          "xg_diff": 0.0
        },
        "type": "balanced",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
      },
      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "decision": "no_bet",
          "edge": 0.0176,
          "ev": -0.0434,
          "implied_prob": 0.31,
          "max_ev_side": "home",
          "model_prob": 0.3518,
          "side": "home",
          "side_label": "HPS"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.0945,
          "ev": 0.1921,
          "implied_prob": 0.3605,
          "model_prob": 0.455,
          "side": "no",
          "value_side": "no"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.1259,
          "ev": 0.2432,
          "implied_prob": 0.3921,
          "model_prob": 0.518,
          "side": "under",
          "value_side": "under"
        }
      },
      "match_id": 1541621,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "bet",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": true,
        "code": "clear_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.2432,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 1.0,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.3518,
        "draw": 0.2965,
        "home": 0.3518
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "no_ev_1x2"
      ],
      "secondary_pick": {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.1921,
        "implied_prob": 0.3605,
        "market": "btts",
        "model_prob": 0.455,
        "not_dominant": true,
        "risk_band": "medium",
        "risk_tier": "secondary",
        "side": "no",
        "slot": "secondary"
      },
      "secondary_picks": [
        {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "ev": 0.1921,
          "implied_prob": 0.3605,
          "market": "btts",
          "model_prob": 0.455,
          "not_dominant": true,
          "risk_band": "medium",
          "risk_tier": "secondary",
          "side": "no",
          "slot": "secondary"
        }
      ],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Kiffen",
        "home": "HPS"
      },
      "top_pick": {
        "composite_score": 0.088184,
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.2432,
        "implied_prob": 0.3921,
        "market": "ou_2_5",
        "model_prob": 0.518,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "under",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
      },
      "valid_markets_count": 2
    }
  },
  "fixture_id": 1541621,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-06-12T15:59:20.601709+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}

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Kakkonen - Lohko A Kakkonen - Lohko A — Kedudukan
# PASUKAN P M S K Mata
1 Kiffen 18 12 3 3 39
2 PEPO 18 11 4 3 37
3 Atlantis 18 10 2 6 32
4 HIFK Helsinki 18 7 6 5 27
5 HPS 18 7 4 7 25
6 PPJ 18 5 8 5 23
7 Reipas 18 7 2 9 23
8 PuiU Helsinki 18 4 4 10 16
9 MyPa 18 4 3 11 15
10 Union Plaani 18 4 2 12 14
# PASUKAN P J B +/- Mata
1 Atlantis 18 62 44 +18 32
2 Kiffen 18 41 24 +17 39
3 HIFK Helsinki 18 39 33 +6 27
4 HPS 18 39 41 -2 25
5 PEPO 18 36 23 +13 37
6 Reipas 18 35 35 0 23
7 PPJ 18 33 31 +2 23
8 PuiU Helsinki 18 26 38 -12 16
9 MyPa 18 20 39 -19 15
10 Union Plaani 18 19 42 -23 14