Arba Minch Kenema vs Suhul Shire Statistics & Analysis

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      "fair_odds_draw": 2.69,
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      "under_25_prob": 0.752
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    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "Combo Double chance : Arba Minch Kenema or draw and -3.5 goals",
      "main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
      "percent_away": "30%",
      "percent_draw": "35%",
      "percent_home": "35%",
      "winner_name": "Arba Minch Kenema"
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    "away_xg": 0.89,
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        "pick_type": "no_strong",
        "probabilities": {
          "away": 33.1,
          "draw": 37.2,
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        },
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        "selection": null,
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    "betting_markets": {
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        "away_failed_to_score": 18,
        "away_played": 34,
        "away_score_rate": 58.9,
        "home_clean_sheet": 10,
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        "pick_prob": 65.0,
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            "away": 0,
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          {
            "away": 1,
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            "away": 2,
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        ],
        "source": "xG"
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      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
          {
            "key": "1X",
            "label": "Arba Minch Kenema or Draw",
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          {
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      "match_winner": {
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        "draw_pct": 37.2,
        "home_pct": 29.7,
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        "lean_label": "Draw"
      },
      "over_under": {
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        "odds": 2.84
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    },
    "closing_line_bundle": {
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      "home_team": "Arba Minch Kenema",
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      ],
      "movement": [
        {
          "closing": 2.3,
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        "alert_breadth_note": "10/11 sportsbooks confirmed",
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        "alert_team": "Suhul Shire",
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        "hero_label": "Arba Minch Kenema",
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        "model_prob_pct": 37.2,
        "model_team": "Draw",
        "show": true,
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        "status_key": "aligned",
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        "status_line": "Model and market broadly aligned",
        "steam_score": 96,
        "steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
        "steam_tier": "A+",
        "title": "Betting Signal"
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          "outcome": "home"
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          "edge_pp": 5.35,
          "fair_prob": 37.23,
          "label": "Draw",
          "market_prob": 31.88,
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          "outcome": "draw"
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        {
          "edge_pp": 4.31,
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          "outcome": "away"
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          "edge_pp": -7.94,
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          "outcome": "over"
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        {
          "edge_pp": 7.94,
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          "market_prob": 67.26,
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          "outcome": "under"
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          "market_prob": 59.28,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "no"
        }
      ],
      "edge_snapshot": {
        "edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
        "edge_pp": -9.65,
        "fair_prob_pct": 29.72,
        "hero_side": "home",
        "hero_team_name": "Arba Minch Kenema",
        "market_prob_pct": 39.37,
        "status": "market_ahead",
        "steam_team_name": "Suhul Shire"
      },
      "fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
      "fair_vs_market": {
        "comparison_available": true,
        "comparison_disabled": false,
        "degraded_note": "",
        "divergence_guard": {
          "divergence_level": "moderate",
          "edge_status": "market_ahead",
          "max_gap_pp": 9.65,
          "suppress_hero": false,
          "suppress_value_language": false
        },
        "divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
        "divergence_level": "moderate",
        "divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
        "divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
        "divergence_tier": "moderate",
        "edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
        "edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
        "fair_confidence": "medium",
        "fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
        "fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
        "forecast_assessment": {
          "favourite_class": "Balanced match",
          "favourite_label": "Draw",
          "forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
          "headline": "Balanced match",
          "market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
          "market_prob_pct": 31.9,
          "model_prob_pct": 37.2,
          "outcome_separation_tier": "low",
          "paragraphs": [],
          "reliability_headline": "Reliable prediction",
          "reliability_icon": "\u2713",
          "reliability_tier": "reliable",
          "summary": "The model and market both lean Draw, but neither indicates a dominant favourite. Draw and Suhul Shire remain plausible \u2014 this is a relatively open match.",
          "tier": "balanced",
          "title": "Prediction Assessment",
          "validation_label": "Pass"
        },
        "forecast_certainty": {
          "note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
          "tier": "low",
          "tier_label": "Low"
        },
        "forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
        "has_market_probs": true,
        "hero_edge_pp": -9.65,
        "hero_label": "Arba Minch Kenema",
        "hero_side": "home",
        "market_activity": "Suhul Shire odds lengthened \u2191 +22.1%.",
        "market_agreement": "moderate",
        "market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
        "market_interpretation": {
          "bullets": [
            "Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
          ],
          "follow_up": "However, Suhul Shire has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 22.1%, suggesting weakening support.",
          "gap_tier": "mild",
          "lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Arba Minch Kenema. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
          "note": "Drift away from Suhul Shire \u2014 odds lengthened by 22.1% (weakening support).",
          "paragraphs": [
            "The market and model broadly agree on Arba Minch Kenema. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
            "However, Suhul Shire has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 22.1%, suggesting weakening support.",
            "Drift away from Suhul Shire \u2014 odds lengthened by 22.1% (weakening support)."
          ],
          "quiet_market": false,
          "title": "Market Assessment"
        },
        "market_narrative": {
          "paragraphs": [
            "The market still prices Arba Minch Kenema above the current fair estimate.",
            "At the same time, Suhul Shire has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 22.1%, suggesting weakening support.",
            "Broad sportsbook alignment (10/11) supports the current market view on Suhul Shire."
          ],
          "title": "Current Market Narrative"
        },
        "max_gap_pp": 9.65,
        "model_validation": {
          "score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
          "status": "pass"
        },
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        "outcome_separation": {
          "breakdown": [
            "No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
            "Favourite exceeds second outcome by 4.2 pp (at 37.2%)."
          ],
          "lead_gap_pp": 4.2,
          "max_prob_pct": 37.2,
          "note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
          "tier": "low",
          "tier_label": "Low"
        },
        "outcome_separation_label": "Low",
        "rows": [
          {
            "edge_pp": -9.65,
            "fair_prob_pct": 29.72,
            "is_hero": true,
            "label": "Arba Minch Kenema",
            "market_prob_pct": 39.37,
            "side": "home"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": 5.35,
            "fair_prob_pct": 37.23,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Draw",
            "market_prob_pct": 31.88,
            "side": "draw"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": 4.31,
            "fair_prob_pct": 33.06,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Suhul Shire",
            "market_prob_pct": 28.75,
            "side": "away"
          }
        ],
        "status": "market_ahead",
        "status_label": "Market Ahead",
        "steam_note": "Drift away from Suhul Shire \u2014 odds lengthened by 22.1% (weakening support).",
        "unavailable_note": ""
      },
      "interpretation": {
        "has_conflict": true,
        "paragraphs": [
          "The betting market strongly prefers Arba Minch Kenema (31.9%).",
          "However, Suhul Shire has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2191 +22.1%, 10/11).",
          "This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Draw, Market \u2192 Arba Minch Kenema, Recent sharp money \u2192 Suhul Shire.",
          "Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
        ],
        "show": true,
        "title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
      },
      "lifecycle": {
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        "closing_odds": 2.3,
        "clv_pending": true,
        "clv_pp": 0.0,
        "clv_status": "pending",
        "context": "match",
        "current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
        "current_stage_detail": "",
        "current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
        "entry_implied_pct": 43.48,
        "entry_odds": 2.3,
        "model_validation_label": "Pass",
        "model_validation_status": "pass",
        "stages": [
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            "detail": "",
            "id": "forecast_generated",
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            "status": "done"
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            "id": "market_detected",
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            "detail": "",
            "id": "model_validated",
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            "detail": "PRE1",
            "id": "closing_recorded",
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            "detail": "",
            "id": "clv_evaluated",
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        ]
      },
      "market_move_intelligence": {
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        "books_total": 11,
        "breadth_display": "10/11",
        "clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
        "clv_status": "evaluated",
        "current_odds": 3.2,
        "move_context": "Largest move today",
        "move_display": "\u2191 +22.1%",
        "move_pct_abs": 22.1,
        "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
        "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 23h 44m",
        "narrative_paragraphs": [
          "10/11 books synchronized on Suhul Shire (22.1% steam, score 96) \u2014 high-conviction multi-book repricing beats isolated ticks.",
          "Sharp sportsbooks led a meaningful repricing with broad market follow-through."
        ],
        "narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
        "odds_path": {
          "display": "3.25 \u2192 2.55 \u2192 3.20",
          "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
          "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 23h 44m",
          "pick_team": "Suhul Shire",
          "points": [
            {
              "label_key": "open",
              "value": "3.25"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "extreme",
              "value": "2.55"
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            {
              "label_key": "current",
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          ],
          "sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,1.6 56.0,0.0",
          "sparkline_trend": "up",
          "sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise"
        },
        "open_odds": 2.62,
        "page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: Suhul Shire \u2191 +22.1% market move detected",
        "phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
        "phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
        "pick_team": "Suhul Shire",
        "ref_book": "Bet365",
        "seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: Suhul Shire \u2191 +22.1% market move detected",
        "sharp_leader": "Bet365",
        "show": true,
        "signal_badge_class": "steam",
        "signal_icon": "\ud83d\udd25",
        "signal_key": "strong_steam",
        "signal_label": "Strong steam",
        "steam_score": 96,
        "steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
        "steam_tier": "A+",
        "title": "Market Move Intelligence"
      },
      "market_overview": {
        "breadth_display": "10/11",
        "current_odds": 3.2,
        "move_display": "\u2191 +22.1%",
        "open_odds": 2.62,
        "pick_team": "Suhul Shire",
        "steam_score": 96,
        "steam_team_name": "Suhul Shire",
        "steam_tier": "A+"
      },
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        "current_divergence_pp": 9.7,
        "divergence_label": "Current divergence",
        "title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
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          "Historical similar matches",
          "Closing odds analysis",
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          "Historical model vs market results"
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      "show": true
    },
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 9986,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/9986.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Suhul Shire",
      "country_code": "ET",
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      "longshot_picks": [],
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          "value_side": "under"
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      "secondary_picks": [],
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      "teams": {
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  "generated_at_utc": "2026-06-15T12:12:44.506125+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}