The Strongest vs Bolívar Statistics & Analysis

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      "afp_draw_prob": 0.2114,
      "afp_home_win_prob": 0.5606,
      "away_predicted_xg": 1.47,
      "away_win_prob": 0.2281,
      "away_win_prob_posterior": 0.2281,
      "bayes_applied": 1,
      "btts_no_prob": 0.277,
      "btts_yes_prob": 0.723,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
      "draw_prob": 0.2114,
      "draw_prob_posterior": 0.2114,
      "fair_odds_away": 4.38,
      "fair_odds_away_posterior": 4.38,
      "fair_odds_draw": 4.73,
      "fair_odds_draw_posterior": 4.73,
      "fair_odds_home": 1.78,
      "fair_odds_home_posterior": 1.78,
      "home_predicted_xg": 2.63,
      "home_win_prob": 0.5606,
      "home_win_prob_posterior": 0.5606,
      "over_25_prob": 0.776,
      "prediction_confidence": "low",
      "under_25_prob": 0.224
    },
    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "Double chance : draw or Bol\u00edvar",
      "main_pick_display": "Winner : The Strongest",
      "percent_away": "45%",
      "percent_draw": "45%",
      "percent_home": "10%",
      "winner_name": "Bol\u00edvar"
    },
    "away_xg": 1.47,
    "betting_insight": {
      "bet_label": "The Strongest",
      "confidence": 56.1,
      "main_pick_meta": {
        "confidence": "high",
        "display_text": "Winner : The Strongest",
        "edge": 0.2313,
        "edge_gap": 0.333,
        "market": "1X2",
        "market_prob": 0.3296,
        "model_prob": 0.5609,
        "pick_type": "winner",
        "probabilities": {
          "away": 22.8,
          "draw": 21.1,
          "home": 56.1
        },
        "reason": "",
        "selection": "home",
        "selection_name": "The Strongest"
      },
      "market_comparison": [
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
          "odd": 2.78
        }
      ],
      "risk_color": "#f44336",
      "risk_key": "high_risk",
      "stacked_market": null,
      "value_bet": {
        "best_odds": 2.78,
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "display_market": "The Strongest Win",
        "is_value": true,
        "label": "Home",
        "market_fair_odds": 3.03,
        "market_odds": 2.78,
        "model_odds": 1.78,
        "overround": 9.1,
        "prob_edge": 20.2,
        "value_pct": 56.2,
        "value_rating": "strong_value"
      }
    },
    "betting_markets": {
      "btts": {
        "away_clean_sheet": 3,
        "away_failed_to_score": 1,
        "away_played": 8,
        "away_score_rate": 77.0,
        "home_clean_sheet": 3,
        "home_failed_to_score": 2,
        "home_played": 7,
        "home_score_rate": 92.8,
        "no_prob": 27.7,
        "pick": "Yes",
        "pick_prob": 72.3,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": false,
        "yes_prob": 72.3
      },
      "correct_score": {
        "away_expected": 1.47,
        "home_expected": 2.63,
        "scores": [
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-1",
            "prob": 8.4
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 3,
            "label": "3-1",
            "prob": 7.4
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-1",
            "prob": 6.4
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          {
            "away": 2,
            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-2",
            "prob": 6.2
          },
          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-0",
            "prob": 5.7
          }
        ],
        "source": "xG"
      },
      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
          {
            "key": "1X",
            "label": "The Strongest or Draw",
            "prob": 77.2
          },
          {
            "key": "12",
            "label": "The Strongest or Bol\u00edvar",
            "prob": 78.9
          },
          {
            "key": "X2",
            "label": "Draw or Bol\u00edvar",
            "prob": 43.9
          }
        ],
        "pick_key": "12",
        "pick_label": "The Strongest or Bol\u00edvar",
        "pick_prob": 78.9
      },
      "match_winner": {
        "away_pct": 22.8,
        "draw_pct": 21.1,
        "home_pct": 56.1,
        "lean_key": "home",
        "lean_label": "The Strongest"
      },
      "over_under": {
        "api_hint": null,
        "avg_total": 4.1,
        "away_avg_scored": 2.4,
        "confidence": "high",
        "home_avg_scored": 1.7,
        "over_prob": 77.6,
        "pick": "Over 2.5",
        "pick_prob": 77.6,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": false,
        "total_expected": 4.1,
        "under_prob": 22.4
      },
      "prob_source": "poisson",
      "value_bet_enhanced": {
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "edge": 56.2,
        "implied_prob": 36.0,
        "is_value": true,
        "label": "Home",
        "market": "The Strongest Win",
        "model_prob": 56.2,
        "odds": 2.78
      }
    },
    "closing_line_bundle": {
      "away_team": "Bol\u00edvar",
      "closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
        "away": 40.55,
        "draw": 26.49,
        "home": 32.96
      },
      "closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "closing_capture": "PRE1",
      "closing_fetched_at": "2026-07-12 21:14:01",
      "early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "early_capture": "PRE30",
      "early_fetched_at": "2026-07-12 20:44:02",
      "has_data": true,
      "home_team": "The Strongest",
      "largest_move_kind": null,
      "max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
      "model_vs_closing": [
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 32.96,
          "gap_pp": 23.13,
          "kind": "1x2_h",
          "model_pct": 56.09
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 26.49,
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          "kind": "1x2_d",
          "model_pct": 21.11
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        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 40.55,
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          "model_pct": 22.8
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        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 62.03,
          "gap_pp": 15.57,
          "kind": "ou_o",
          "model_pct": 77.6
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 37.97,
          "gap_pp": -15.57,
          "kind": "ou_u",
          "model_pct": 22.4
        }
      ],
      "movement": [
        {
          "closing": 2.78,
          "early": 2.78,
          "implied_closing_pct": 32.96,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 32.96,
          "kind": "1x2_h"
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        {
          "closing": 3.46,
          "early": 3.46,
          "implied_closing_pct": 26.49,
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          "implied_early_pct": 26.49,
          "kind": "1x2_d"
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        {
          "closing": 2.26,
          "early": 2.26,
          "implied_closing_pct": 40.55,
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          "implied_early_pct": 40.55,
          "kind": "1x2_a"
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        {
          "closing": 1.5,
          "early": 1.5,
          "implied_closing_pct": 62.03,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 62.03,
          "kind": "ou_o"
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        {
          "closing": 2.45,
          "early": 2.45,
          "implied_closing_pct": 37.97,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 37.97,
          "kind": "ou_u"
        }
      ],
      "movement_negligible": true,
      "same_bookmaker": true,
      "top_value_gap": {
        "gap_pp": 23.1,
        "kind": "1x2_h"
      }
    },
    "correct_score_insight": {
      "best_value": null,
      "most_likely": {
        "label": "2-1",
        "prob": 8.4
      }
    },
    "home_xg": 2.63,
    "homepage_pick": {
      "best_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "best_odds": 2.78,
      "confidence": "moderate",
      "display_label": "Home The Strongest",
      "edge": 20.1,
      "ev": 71.6,
      "probability": 56.1
    },
    "market_cards": [
      {
        "consensus_odds": 2.78,
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.1054,
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": 10.5,
          "text": "+10.5%"
        },
        "featured": true,
        "id": "1x2",
        "implied_prob": 0.3296,
        "max_ev": 0.1054,
        "max_ev_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": 10.5,
          "text": "+10.5%"
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        "model_prob": 0.5609,
        "side_label": "The Strongest",
        "sort_key": 10244.86,
        "tier": "best"
      },
      {
        "decision": "lean",
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        "ev_under_display": null,
        "featured": false,
        "id": "ou_2_5",
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        "over_prob": 77.6,
        "sort_key": 4050.0,
        "tier": "lean",
        "under_prob": 22.4,
        "value_side": "over"
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      {
        "decision": "lean",
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        "ev_yes": null,
        "ev_yes_display": null,
        "featured": false,
        "id": "btts",
        "max_ev": null,
        "no_prob": 27.7,
        "sort_key": 4050.0,
        "tier": "lean",
        "value_side": "yes",
        "yes_prob": 72.3
      },
      {
        "featured": false,
        "id": "correct_score",
        "sort_key": 805.2,
        "tier": "risk",
        "top_label": "2-1",
        "top_prob": 8.4
      }
    ],
    "market_intelligence": {
      "betting_signal": {
        "alert_breadth": "10/11",
        "alert_breadth_note": "10/11 sportsbooks confirmed",
        "alert_move": "\u2191 +36.6%",
        "alert_team": "The Strongest",
        "alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
        "divergence_pp": 23.1,
        "has_alert": true,
        "hero_edge_pp": 23.1,
        "hero_label": "The Strongest",
        "market_prob_pct": 33.0,
        "market_team": "Bol\u00edvar",
        "model_prob_pct": 56.1,
        "model_team": "The Strongest",
        "show": true,
        "status_icon": "!",
        "status_key": "caution",
        "status_label": "Use caution",
        "status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
        "steam_score": 92,
        "steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
        "steam_tier": "A+",
        "title": "Betting Signal"
      },
      "decision_chain": {
        "academy_links": [
          {
            "key": "market_disagree",
            "read_min": 5,
            "title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
            "url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
          },
          {
            "key": "steam",
            "read_min": 4,
            "title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
            "url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
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          {
            "key": "clv_pending",
            "read_min": 3,
            "title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
            "url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
          }
        ],
        "alignment": {
          "key": "conflict",
          "label": "Disagree",
          "model_strong": false,
          "summary": "The market has moved toward The Strongest, but the model still strongly favours The Strongest."
        },
        "authority": {
          "action": "wait",
          "alignment": {
            "key": "conflict",
            "label": "Disagree",
            "model_strong": false,
            "summary": "The market has moved toward The Strongest, but the model still strongly favours The Strongest."
          },
          "alignment_key": "conflict",
          "best_consensus_ev": 0.1054,
          "best_outlier_ev": 0.5594,
          "confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
          "decision_strength": 3.1,
          "decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
          "decision_strength_v2": 3.1,
          "execution_confidence": 35,
          "gates_failed": [
            "Decision strength below 7"
          ],
          "headline": "Wait",
          "icon": "\u23f8",
          "label": "Wait for validation",
          "market_signal": "The market has moved toward The Strongest, but the model still strongly favours The Strongest.",
          "model_lean": "The Strongest",
          "outlier_detected": true,
          "primary_allowed": false,
          "reasons": [
            "The market has moved toward The Strongest, but the model still strongly favours The Strongest.",
            "Decision strength: 3.1/10",
            "Decision strength below 7",
            "Outlier price +56% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
          ],
          "reliability_score": 54,
          "strength_v2_breakdown": [
            "Base decision score (v1)",
            "Market steam conflicts with model",
            "Consensus-line +EV"
          ],
          "subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
          "tier": "wait",
          "version": "v1"
        },
        "bet_status": "wait",
        "evidence": {
          "score": 82,
          "signals": [
            {
              "icon": "\u2713",
              "key": "statistical_edge",
              "label": "Strong model lean",
              "status": "pass"
            },
            {
              "icon": "!",
              "key": "market_agreement",
              "label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
              "status": "caution"
            },
            {
              "icon": "!",
              "key": "steam",
              "label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
              "status": "caution"
            },
            {
              "icon": "!",
              "key": "validation",
              "label": "Validation warning",
              "status": "caution"
            }
          ],
          "stars": 4,
          "tier": "high",
          "tier_label": "High"
        },
        "forecast_reliability": {
          "breakdown": [
            {
              "key": "validation",
              "label": "Validation: Warning",
              "tone": "caution"
            },
            {
              "key": "gap",
              "label": "Large market gap (23 pp)",
              "tone": "caution"
            },
            {
              "key": "steam",
              "label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
              "tone": "caution"
            }
          ],
          "parts": {
            "alignment": 13.4,
            "data_quality": 12.0,
            "market_coverage": 9.1,
            "steam_coherence": 0.0,
            "validation": 14.0
          },
          "score": 54,
          "stars": 2,
          "tier": "moderate",
          "tier_label": "Moderate"
        },
        "mv_status": "warning",
        "suppress_execution": true,
        "value_split": {
          "execution_confidence": {
            "label": "Execution Confidence",
            "score": 35,
            "tier": "low",
            "tier_label": "Low"
          },
          "model_value": {
            "label": "Model Value",
            "score": 41,
            "tier": "low",
            "tier_label": "Low"
          },
          "recommendation": {
            "action": "wait",
            "label": "Wait"
          }
        },
        "verdict": {
          "agree_note": "The market has moved toward The Strongest, but the model still strongly favours The Strongest.",
          "alignment": {
            "key": "conflict",
            "label": "Disagree",
            "model_strong": false,
            "summary": "The market has moved toward The Strongest, but the model still strongly favours The Strongest."
          },
          "authority": {
            "action": "wait",
            "alignment": {
              "key": "conflict",
              "label": "Disagree",
              "model_strong": false,
              "summary": "The market has moved toward The Strongest, but the model still strongly favours The Strongest."
            },
            "alignment_key": "conflict",
            "best_consensus_ev": 0.1054,
            "best_outlier_ev": 0.5594,
            "confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
            "decision_strength": 3.1,
            "decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
            "decision_strength_v2": 3.1,
            "execution_confidence": 35,
            "gates_failed": [
              "Decision strength below 7"
            ],
            "headline": "Wait",
            "icon": "\u23f8",
            "label": "Wait for validation",
            "market_signal": "The market has moved toward The Strongest, but the model still strongly favours The Strongest.",
            "model_lean": "The Strongest",
            "outlier_detected": true,
            "primary_allowed": false,
            "reasons": [
              "The market has moved toward The Strongest, but the model still strongly favours The Strongest.",
              "Decision strength: 3.1/10",
              "Decision strength below 7",
              "Outlier price +56% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
            ],
            "reliability_score": 54,
            "strength_v2_breakdown": [
              "Base decision score (v1)",
              "Market steam conflicts with model",
              "Consensus-line +EV"
            ],
            "subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
            "tier": "wait",
            "version": "v1"
          },
          "headline": "Wait",
          "icon": "\u23f8",
          "label": "Wait for validation",
          "subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
          "tier": "wait"
        },
        "why": {
          "action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
          "bullets": [
            "Model: The Strongest 2.63 xG vs Bol\u00edvar 1.47 \u2192 The Strongest 56.1%",
            "Market: Bol\u00edvar ~33.0% implied",
            "Market Drift: The Strongest odds \u2191 +36.6%"
          ],
          "one_liner": "Model favours The Strongest, but sharp money moved toward The Strongest.",
          "title": "Why?"
        }
      },
      "edge_rows": [
        {
          "edge_pp": 23.1,
          "fair_prob": 56.06,
          "label": "The Strongest",
          "market_prob": 32.96,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "home"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -5.35,
          "fair_prob": 21.14,
          "label": "Draw",
          "market_prob": 26.49,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "draw"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -17.74,
          "fair_prob": 22.81,
          "label": "Bol\u00edvar",
          "market_prob": 40.55,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "away"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": null,
          "fair_prob": 77.6,
          "label": "Over 2.5",
          "market_prob": null,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "over"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": null,
          "fair_prob": 22.4,
          "label": "Under 2.5",
          "market_prob": null,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "under"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": null,
          "fair_prob": 72.3,
          "label": "BTTS Yes",
          "market_prob": null,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "yes"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": null,
          "fair_prob": 27.7,
          "label": "BTTS No",
          "market_prob": null,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "no"
        }
      ],
      "edge_snapshot": {
        "edge_label": "extreme_disagreement",
        "edge_pp": 23.1,
        "fair_prob_pct": 56.06,
        "hero_side": "home",
        "hero_team_name": "The Strongest",
        "market_prob_pct": 32.96,
        "status": "strong_disagreement",
        "steam_team_name": "The Strongest"
      },
      "fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
      "fair_vs_market": {
        "closing_capture": "PRE1",
        "closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
        "comparison_available": true,
        "comparison_disabled": false,
        "comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates The Strongest\u0027s win probability at 56.1%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 33.0%, a difference of 23.1 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
        "degraded_note": "",
        "divergence_guard": {
          "divergence_level": "extreme",
          "edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
          "max_gap_pp": 23.1,
          "suppress_hero": false,
          "suppress_value_language": true
        },
        "divergence_label": "Extreme model-market divergence",
        "divergence_level": "extreme",
        "divergence_level_label": "Extreme divergence",
        "divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs substantially from current market pricing. Large divergences can occur when rating inputs are incomplete, team-strength estimates are uncertain, or the market incorporates information not present in the model. Interpret with caution.",
        "divergence_tier": "extreme",
        "edge_label": "Extreme disagreement",
        "edge_label_key": "extreme_disagreement",
        "fair_confidence": "medium",
        "fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
        "fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
        "forecast_assessment": {
          "favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
          "favourite_label": "The Strongest",
          "forecast_certainty_tier": "high",
          "headline": "Slight edge match",
          "market_agreement_label": "Weak",
          "market_prob_pct": 33.0,
          "model_prob_pct": 56.1,
          "outcome_separation_tier": "high",
          "paragraphs": [],
          "reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
          "reliability_icon": "!",
          "reliability_score": 54,
          "reliability_tier": "limited",
          "summary": "The market has moved toward The Strongest, but the model still strongly favours The Strongest. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
          "tier": "slight_edge",
          "title": "Prediction Assessment",
          "validation_label": "Warning",
          "value_split": {
            "execution_confidence": {
              "label": "Execution Confidence",
              "score": 35,
              "tier": "low",
              "tier_label": "Low"
            },
            "model_value": {
              "label": "Model Value",
              "score": 41,
              "tier": "low",
              "tier_label": "Low"
            },
            "recommendation": {
              "action": "wait",
              "label": "Wait"
            }
          },
          "why": {
            "action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
            "bullets": [
              "Model: The Strongest 2.63 xG vs Bol\u00edvar 1.47 \u2192 The Strongest 56.1%",
              "Market: Bol\u00edvar ~33.0% implied",
              "Market Drift: The Strongest odds \u2191 +36.6%"
            ],
            "one_liner": "Model favours The Strongest, but sharp money moved toward The Strongest.",
            "title": "Why?"
          }
        },
        "forecast_certainty": {
          "note": "One outcome clearly leads the model 1X2 grid.",
          "tier": "high",
          "tier_label": "High"
        },
        "forecast_certainty_label": "High",
        "has_market_probs": true,
        "hero_edge_pp": 23.1,
        "hero_label": "The Strongest",
        "hero_side": "home",
        "market_activity": "The Strongest odds lengthened \u2191 +36.6%.",
        "market_agreement": "weak",
        "market_agreement_label": "Weak",
        "market_interpretation": {},
        "market_narrative": {},
        "market_source": "closing_1x2",
        "max_gap_pp": 23.1,
        "model_validation": {
          "score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
          "status": "warning"
        },
        "model_validation_label": "Warning",
        "outcome_separation": {
          "breakdown": [
            "Favourite exceeds second outcome by 33.2 pp (at 56.1%)."
          ],
          "lead_gap_pp": 33.2,
          "max_prob_pct": 56.1,
          "note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
          "tier": "high",
          "tier_label": "High"
        },
        "outcome_separation_label": "High",
        "overall_assessment": {
          "badge_class": "extreme",
          "largest_gap_label": "The Strongest",
          "largest_gap_pp": 23.1,
          "lead": "The model rates The Strongest considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
          "level": "extreme",
          "max_gap_pp": 23.1,
          "title": "Strong Disagreement"
        },
        "rows": [
          {
            "difference_pp": 23.1,
            "edge_pp": 23.1,
            "fair_prob_pct": 56.06,
            "is_hero": true,
            "label": "The Strongest",
            "market_prob_pct": 32.96,
            "side": "home",
            "signal_key": "model_edge",
            "signal_label": "Model Edge"
          },
          {
            "difference_pp": -5.35,
            "edge_pp": -5.35,
            "fair_prob_pct": 21.14,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Draw",
            "market_prob_pct": 26.49,
            "side": "draw",
            "signal_key": "market_higher",
            "signal_label": "Market Higher"
          },
          {
            "difference_pp": -17.74,
            "edge_pp": -17.74,
            "fair_prob_pct": 22.81,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Bol\u00edvar",
            "market_prob_pct": 40.55,
            "side": "away",
            "signal_key": "market_higher",
            "signal_label": "Market Higher"
          }
        ],
        "status": "strong_disagreement",
        "status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
        "steam_note": "",
        "unavailable_note": ""
      },
      "interpretation": {
        "has_conflict": true,
        "paragraphs": [
          "The betting market strongly prefers Bol\u00edvar (33.0%).",
          "However, The Strongest has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +36.6%, 10/11) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
          "This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 The Strongest, Market \u2192 Bol\u00edvar, while The Strongest odds drifted longer (market fade).",
          "Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
        ],
        "show": true,
        "title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
      },
      "lifecycle": {
        "closing_implied_pct": 35.97,
        "closing_odds": 2.78,
        "clv_pending": true,
        "clv_pp": 0.0,
        "clv_status": "pending",
        "context": "match",
        "current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
        "current_stage_detail": "",
        "current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
        "entry_implied_pct": 35.97,
        "entry_odds": 2.78,
        "model_validation_label": "Warning",
        "model_validation_status": "warning",
        "stages": [
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "forecast_generated",
            "label": "Prediction Generated",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "market_detected",
            "label": "Market Compared",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "model_validated",
            "label": "Validation Passed",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "PRE1",
            "id": "closing_recorded",
            "label": "Closing Recorded",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "clv_evaluated",
            "label": "CLV Evaluated",
            "status": "pending"
          }
        ]
      },
      "market_move_intelligence": {
        "books_reacting": 10,
        "books_reacting_detail": [
          {
            "bookmaker_id": 11,
            "bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
            "is_sharp": false,
            "move_delta_display": "\u2191 +40.2%",
            "odds_delta_pct": 40.2
          },
          {
            "bookmaker_id": 2,
            "bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
            "is_sharp": false,
            "move_delta_display": "\u2191 +39.1%",
            "odds_delta_pct": 39.1
          },
          {
            "bookmaker_id": 36,
            "bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
            "is_sharp": false,
            "move_delta_display": "\u2191 +37.5%",
            "odds_delta_pct": 37.5
          },
          {
            "bookmaker_id": 32,
            "bookmaker_name": "Betano",
            "is_sharp": false,
            "move_delta_display": "\u2191 +37.1%",
            "odds_delta_pct": 37.1
          },
          {
            "bookmaker_id": 8,
            "bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
            "is_sharp": true,
            "move_delta_display": "\u2191 +36.6%",
            "odds_delta_pct": 36.6
          },
          {
            "bookmaker_id": 9,
            "bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
            "is_sharp": false,
            "move_delta_display": "\u2191 +36.6%",
            "odds_delta_pct": 36.6
          },
          {
            "bookmaker_id": 7,
            "bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
            "is_sharp": false,
            "move_delta_display": "\u2191 +35.0%",
            "odds_delta_pct": 35.0
          },
          {
            "bookmaker_id": 3,
            "bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
            "is_sharp": true,
            "move_delta_display": "\u2191 +31.5%",
            "odds_delta_pct": 31.5
          },
          {
            "bookmaker_id": 1,
            "bookmaker_name": "10Bet",
            "is_sharp": false,
            "move_delta_display": "\u2191 +27.8%",
            "odds_delta_pct": 27.8
          },
          {
            "bookmaker_id": 5,
            "bookmaker_name": "SBO",
            "is_sharp": true,
            "move_delta_display": "\u2191 +12.7%",
            "odds_delta_pct": 12.7
          }
        ],
        "books_total": 11,
        "breadth_display": "10/11",
        "clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
        "clv_status": "evaluated",
        "current_odds": 2.8,
        "is_drift": true,
        "move_context": "Largest move today",
        "move_display": "\u2191 +36.6%",
        "move_pct_abs": 36.6,
        "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
        "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 31h 54m",
        "narrative_paragraphs": [
          "10/11 books lengthened The Strongest together (36.6% drift, score 92) \u2014 broad market fade, not a single-book blip.",
          "Broad multi-book drift \u2014 odds lengthened across sportsbooks (market fade)."
        ],
        "narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
        "odds_delta_pct": 36.6,
        "odds_path": {
          "chart_y_labels": [
            "2.80",
            "2.42",
            "2.05"
          ],
          "display": "2.80 \u2192 1.97 \u2192 2.80",
          "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
          "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 31h 54m",
          "pick_team": "The Strongest",
          "points": [
            {
              "label_key": "open",
              "value": "2.80"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "extreme",
              "value": "1.97"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "current",
              "value": "2.80"
            }
          ],
          "sparkline_points": [
            2.05,
            2.78,
            2.8
          ],
          "sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.5 56.0,0.0",
          "sparkline_trend": "up",
          "sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
          "summary_boxes": [
            {
              "label_key": "open",
              "value": "2.05"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "low",
              "value": "2.05"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "high",
              "value": "2.80"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "current",
              "value": "2.80"
            }
          ]
        },
        "open_odds": 2.05,
        "page_alert_line": "Market drift alert: The Strongest odds \u2191 +36.6% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
        "phase_label": "Market drift",
        "phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
        "pick_team": "The Strongest",
        "ref_book": "Bet365",
        "seo_title_alert": "Market drift alert: The Strongest odds \u2191 +36.6% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
        "sharp_leader": "Bet365",
        "show": true,
        "signal_badge_class": "fade",
        "signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc9",
        "signal_impact": {
          "current_odds": 2.8,
          "label": "Sharp signal",
          "move_display": "\u2191 +36.6%",
          "open_odds": 2.05,
          "summary": "Market moved toward The Strongest while the model still favours another side.",
          "team": "The Strongest",
          "tone": "against"
        },
        "signal_key": "strong_drift",
        "signal_label": "Strong drift",
        "steam_score": 92,
        "steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
        "steam_tier": "A+",
        "title": "Market Move Intelligence"
      },
      "market_overview": {
        "breadth_display": "10/11",
        "current_odds": 2.8,
        "move_display": "\u2191 +36.6%",
        "open_odds": 2.05,
        "pick_team": "The Strongest",
        "steam_score": 92,
        "steam_team_name": "The Strongest",
        "steam_tier": "A+"
      },
      "premium_teaser": {
        "current_divergence_pp": 23.1,
        "divergence_label": "Current divergence",
        "title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
        "unlock_items": [
          "Historical similar matches",
          "Closing odds analysis",
          "CLV tracking",
          "Sharp money signals",
          "Market efficiency rating",
          "Historical model vs market results"
        ],
        "unlock_label": "Unlock"
      },
      "show": true
    },
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_goal_display": null,
      "away_team_id": 3702,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/3702.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Bol\u00edvar",
      "country_code": "BO",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/bo.svg",
      "country_name": "Bolivia",
      "fixture_id": 1538402,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_goal_display": null,
      "home_team_country": "Bolivia",
      "home_team_id": 3711,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/3711.webp",
      "home_team_name": "The Strongest",
      "league_country": "Bolivia",
      "league_id": 344,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/344.webp",
      "league_name": "Primera Divisi\u00f3n Bolivia",
      "league_season": 2026,
      "match_date": "2026-07-12 21:15:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "score_penalty_away": null,
      "score_penalty_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS",
      "venue_city": "La Paz",
      "venue_name": "Estadio Hernando Siles"
    },
    "match_decision": {
      "confidence": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 8.0
      },
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.3302,
            "best_odd": 2.26,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0586,
            "ev": -0.2161,
            "implied_prob": 0.4055,
            "joint_probs": {
              "away": 0.4055,
              "draw": 0.2649,
              "home": 0.3296
            },
            "model_prob": 0.228,
            "p_final": 0.3469
          },
          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.2758,
            "best_odd": 3.46,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0148,
            "ev": -0.1349,
            "implied_prob": 0.2649,
            "joint_probs": {
              "away": 0.4055,
              "draw": 0.2649,
              "home": 0.3296
            },
            "model_prob": 0.2111,
            "p_final": 0.25
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.2939,
            "best_odd": 2.78,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.068,
            "ev": 0.1054,
            "implied_prob": 0.3296,
            "joint_probs": {
              "away": 0.4055,
              "draw": 0.2649,
              "home": 0.3296
            },
            "model_prob": 0.5609,
            "p_final": 0.3976
          }
        },
        "1x2_outlier": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
          "away": {
            "best_odd": 2.26,
            "edge": -0.2145,
            "ev": -0.4848,
            "implied_prob": 0.4425,
            "model_prob": 0.228
          },
          "draw": {
            "best_odd": 3.46,
            "edge": -0.0779,
            "ev": -0.2696,
            "implied_prob": 0.289,
            "model_prob": 0.2111
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "best_odd": 2.78,
            "edge": 0.2012,
            "ev": 0.5594,
            "implied_prob": 0.3597,
            "model_prob": 0.5609
          }
        },
        "btts": {
          "ev_available": false,
          "n_bookmakers": 0,
          "reliability": "low"
        },
        "ou25": {
          "ev_available": false,
          "n_bookmakers": 0,
          "reliability": "low"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 4.1,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.3.1"
      },
      "balanced_alternative": null,
      "best_consensus_ev": 0.1054,
      "best_outlier_ev": 0.5594,
      "best_tracked_ev": 0.1054,
      "confidence": 7.0,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Primary line identified (+1.0)",
          "Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)"
        ],
        "breakdown_v2": [
          "Base decision score (v1)",
          "Market steam conflicts with model",
          "Consensus-line +EV"
        ],
        "guard_capped": true,
        "score": 3.1,
        "score_before_guard": 7.0,
        "score_v1_legacy": 3.0,
        "strength_v2": true
      },
      "decision_strength_v2": {
        "breakdown": [
          "Base decision score (v1)",
          "Market steam conflicts with model",
          "Consensus-line +EV"
        ],
        "score": 3.1
      },
      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": true,
        "1x2_open_contest": false,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
      },
      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
      },
      "final_action": "wait",
      "final_decision": {
        "action": "wait",
        "alignment": {
          "key": "conflict",
          "label": "Disagree",
          "model_strong": false,
          "summary": "The market has moved toward The Strongest, but the model still strongly favours The Strongest."
        },
        "alignment_key": "conflict",
        "best_consensus_ev": 0.1054,
        "best_outlier_ev": 0.5594,
        "confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
        "decision_strength": 3.1,
        "decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
        "decision_strength_v2": 3.1,
        "execution_confidence": 35,
        "gates_failed": [
          "Decision strength below 7"
        ],
        "headline": "Wait",
        "icon": "\u23f8",
        "label": "Wait for validation",
        "market_signal": "The market has moved toward The Strongest, but the model still strongly favours The Strongest.",
        "model_lean": "The Strongest",
        "outlier_detected": true,
        "primary_allowed": false,
        "reasons": [
          "The market has moved toward The Strongest, but the model still strongly favours The Strongest.",
          "Decision strength: 3.1/10",
          "Decision strength below 7",
          "Outlier price +56% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
        ],
        "reliability_score": 54,
        "strength_v2_breakdown": [
          "Base decision score (v1)",
          "Market steam conflicts with model",
          "Consensus-line +EV"
        ],
        "subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
        "tier": "wait",
        "version": "v1"
      },
      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u5f3a\u4fe1\u53f7\uff08\u4f4e\u65b9\u5dee\uff09",
        "scoring_type": "strong_signal",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.723,
          "draw_prob": 0.2111,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.5609,
          "over_prob": 0.776,
          "total_xg": 4.1,
          "under_prob": 0.224,
          "xg_diff": 1.16
        },
        "type": "strong_signal",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
      },
      "guard_active": true,
      "guard_level": "extreme",
      "guard_message": "Model validation failed \u2014 value signals on 1X2 are not actionable until inputs are verified.",
      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "consensus_odds": 2.78,
          "decision": "guard_blocked",
          "decision_before_guard": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.068,
          "ev": 0.1054,
          "guard_blocked": true,
          "implied_prob": 0.3296,
          "max_ev_side": "home",
          "model_prob": 0.5609,
          "side": "home",
          "side_label": "The Strongest"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "lean",
          "edge": null,
          "ev": null,
          "implied_prob": null,
          "model_prob": 0.723,
          "side": "yes",
          "value_side": "yes"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "lean",
          "edge": null,
          "ev": null,
          "implied_prob": null,
          "model_prob": 0.776,
          "side": "over",
          "value_side": "over"
        }
      },
      "match_id": 1538402,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "bet",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": true,
        "code": "clear_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.1054,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 1.0,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.228,
        "draw": 0.2111,
        "home": 0.5609
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "high_total_goals"
      ],
      "secondary_pick": null,
      "secondary_picks": [],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Bol\u00edvar",
        "home": "The Strongest"
      },
      "top_pick": {
        "composite_score": 0.070943,
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.1054,
        "implied_prob": 0.3296,
        "market": "1x2",
        "model_prob": 0.5609,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "home",
        "side_label": "The Strongest",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
      },
      "valid_markets_count": 1
    }
  },
  "fixture_id": 1538402,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-07-12T21:14:06.283692+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}