Statistik / Bola Sepak / Brazil. Serie D Brazil / Ipatinga vs Operário Ferroviário

Ipatinga vs Operário Ferroviário Statistics & Analysis

Jun 14, 2026 - 19:00
2 1.28
1 1.32
xG Accuracy: 75%
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Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa

Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.

  • Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 matlamat) ✔ Betul
  • Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Betul
  • 1X2 Ipatinga Ipatinga ✔ Betul
  • Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-1 ✔ Betul

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 25, 2026 · 08:55 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1691412

Closing Odds 1.65
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Ipatinga win · Ipatinga 2–1 Operário Ferroviário
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Intelijen pasaran

Bacaan selepas pilihan utama: bagaimana suapan penutup berprioriti bergerak berbanding model.

Ringkasan pasaran

Pasaran kekal stabil menjelang sepakan. Tiada anjakan implied ketara antara PRE30 dan PRE1 pada snapshot berprioriti.

Walaupun pergerakan lewat kecil, model masih menilai Lukis (1X2),Operário Ferroviário (1X2),Lebih 2.5 gol jauh melebihi implied snapshot penutupan — bacaan statik "model vs harga", bukan kejaran steam.

Model masih melebihi implied penutupan pada Operário Ferroviário (1X2) kira-kira 12.1 mata peratus — isyarat salah harga paling jelas pada halaman ini.

Model vs implied penutup

Pasaran Model % Implied penutup % Jurang (pp)
Ipatinga (1X2) 40.0 53.9 -13.9
Lukis (1X2) 29.7 27.9 +1.8
Operário Ferroviário (1X2) 30.2 18.2 +12.1
Lebih 2.5 gol 48.2 41.8 +6.4
Bawah 2.5 gol 51.8 58.2 -6.4
Apa maksudnya

Secara ringkas: model kira-kira 30.2% pada Operário Ferroviário (1X2), manakala snapshot penutup menunjukkan kira-kira 18.2%. Bezanya — kira-kira 12.1 mata peratus — ialah jurang model-vs-pasaran terbesar yang ditonjolkan di halaman ini.

Ringkas: "implied penutup" ialah kebarangkalian terbit daripada odds akhir yang ditangkap (selepas de-vig ringkas). "Jurang (pp)" = peratus model tolak implied tersebut, dalam mata peratus (pp).

Pergerakan garisan menjelang sepakan mula

Satu buku prioriti setiap snapshot (bukan semua). Laluan tangkapan: PRE30 → PRE1 · Buku: Pinnacle

Dalam kurungan pada lajur: Penutup = snapshot pertama tersedia ikut PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Awal = pertama dalam PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 yang berbeza daripada Penutup.

Odds terperinci dilipat di bawah — pergerakan implied (de-vig) boleh diabaikan.

Lihat jadual penuh baris demi baris
Pasaran Awal (PRE30) Penutup (PRE1) Δ tersirat (pp)
Ipatinga (1X2) 1.65 1.65 0.0
Lukis (1X2) 3.19 3.19 0.0
Operário Ferroviário (1X2) 4.9 4.9 0.0
Lebih 2.5 gol 2.21 2.21 0.0
Bawah 2.5 gol 1.59 1.59 0.0

Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.

View technical JSON
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        "alert_breadth_note": "2/11 sportsbooks confirmed",
        "alert_move": "\u2193 -17.5%",
        "alert_team": "Oper\u00e1rio Ferrovi\u00e1rio",
        "alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
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        "show": true,
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        "status_label": "Use caution",
        "status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
        "steam_score": 49,
        "steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
        "steam_tier": "B",
        "title": "Betting Signal"
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          "edge_pp": -13.88,
          "fair_prob": 40.06,
          "label": "Ipatinga",
          "market_prob": 53.94,
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          "outcome": "home"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 1.81,
          "fair_prob": 29.71,
          "label": "Draw",
          "market_prob": 27.9,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "draw"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 12.07,
          "fair_prob": 30.23,
          "label": "Oper\u00e1rio Ferrovi\u00e1rio",
          "market_prob": 18.16,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "away"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 6.26,
          "fair_prob": 48.2,
          "label": "Over 2.5",
          "market_prob": 41.94,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "over"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -6.26,
          "fair_prob": 51.8,
          "label": "Under 2.5",
          "market_prob": 58.06,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "under"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 10.85,
          "fair_prob": 54.5,
          "label": "BTTS Yes",
          "market_prob": 43.65,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "yes"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -10.85,
          "fair_prob": 45.5,
          "label": "BTTS No",
          "market_prob": 56.35,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "no"
        }
      ],
      "edge_snapshot": {
        "edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
        "edge_pp": -13.88,
        "fair_prob_pct": 40.06,
        "hero_side": "home",
        "hero_team_name": "Ipatinga",
        "market_prob_pct": 53.94,
        "status": "market_ahead",
        "steam_team_name": "Oper\u00e1rio Ferrovi\u00e1rio"
      },
      "fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
      "fair_vs_market": {
        "comparison_available": true,
        "comparison_disabled": false,
        "degraded_note": "",
        "divergence_guard": {
          "divergence_level": "strong",
          "edge_status": "market_ahead",
          "max_gap_pp": 13.88,
          "suppress_hero": false,
          "suppress_value_language": false
        },
        "divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
        "divergence_level": "strong",
        "divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
        "divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
        "divergence_tier": "strong",
        "edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
        "edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
        "fair_confidence": "medium",
        "fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
        "fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
        "forecast_assessment": {
          "favourite_class": "Balanced match",
          "favourite_label": "Ipatinga",
          "forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
          "headline": "Balanced match",
          "market_agreement_label": "Weak",
          "market_prob_pct": 53.9,
          "model_prob_pct": 40.1,
          "outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
          "paragraphs": [],
          "reliability_headline": "Use caution",
          "reliability_icon": "!",
          "reliability_tier": "caution",
          "summary": "Both lean Ipatinga, but the market prices them higher (53.9% vs model 40.1%). The edge remains modest and the match stays relatively open.",
          "tier": "balanced",
          "title": "Prediction Assessment",
          "validation_label": "Warning"
        },
        "forecast_certainty": {
          "note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
          "tier": "low",
          "tier_label": "Low"
        },
        "forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
        "has_market_probs": true,
        "hero_edge_pp": -13.88,
        "hero_label": "Ipatinga",
        "hero_side": "home",
        "market_activity": "Oper\u00e1rio Ferrovi\u00e1rio odds shortened \u2193 -17.5%.",
        "market_agreement": "weak",
        "market_agreement_label": "Weak",
        "market_interpretation": {
          "bullets": [
            "Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
            "Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
          ],
          "follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Oper\u00e1rio Ferrovi\u00e1rio, with odds shortening by 17.5%. Confirmation remains limited (2/11 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
          "gap_tier": "strong",
          "lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Ipatinga than the current fair estimate.",
          "note": "Buying interest on Oper\u00e1rio Ferrovi\u00e1rio \u2014 odds shortened by 17.5%.",
          "paragraphs": [
            "The market is materially more optimistic about Ipatinga than the current fair estimate.",
            "However, recent buying interest has been on Oper\u00e1rio Ferrovi\u00e1rio, with odds shortening by 17.5%. Confirmation remains limited (2/11 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
            "Buying interest on Oper\u00e1rio Ferrovi\u00e1rio \u2014 odds shortened by 17.5%."
          ],
          "quiet_market": false,
          "title": "Market Assessment"
        },
        "market_narrative": {
          "paragraphs": [
            "The market favors Ipatinga more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
            "At the same time, Oper\u00e1rio Ferrovi\u00e1rio has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 17.5%.",
            "Market confirmation remains limited (2/11), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
          ],
          "title": "Current Market Narrative"
        },
        "max_gap_pp": 13.88,
        "model_validation": {
          "score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
          "status": "warning"
        },
        "model_validation_label": "Warning",
        "outcome_separation": {
          "breakdown": [
            "No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
            "Favourite exceeds second outcome by 9.8 pp (at 40.1%)."
          ],
          "lead_gap_pp": 9.8,
          "max_prob_pct": 40.1,
          "note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
          "tier": "medium",
          "tier_label": "Medium"
        },
        "outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
        "rows": [
          {
            "edge_pp": -13.88,
            "fair_prob_pct": 40.06,
            "is_hero": true,
            "label": "Ipatinga",
            "market_prob_pct": 53.94,
            "side": "home"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": 1.81,
            "fair_prob_pct": 29.71,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Draw",
            "market_prob_pct": 27.9,
            "side": "draw"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": 12.07,
            "fair_prob_pct": 30.23,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Oper\u00e1rio Ferrovi\u00e1rio",
            "market_prob_pct": 18.16,
            "side": "away"
          }
        ],
        "status": "market_ahead",
        "status_label": "Market Ahead",
        "steam_note": "Buying interest on Oper\u00e1rio Ferrovi\u00e1rio \u2014 odds shortened by 17.5%.",
        "unavailable_note": ""
      },
      "interpretation": {
        "has_conflict": true,
        "paragraphs": [
          "The betting market strongly prefers Ipatinga (53.9%).",
          "Oper\u00e1rio Ferrovi\u00e1rio has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2193 -17.5%, 2/11).",
          "This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Ipatinga, Market \u2192 Ipatinga, Recent sharp money \u2192 Oper\u00e1rio Ferrovi\u00e1rio.",
          "Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
        ],
        "show": true,
        "title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
      },
      "lifecycle": {
        "closing_implied_pct": 60.61,
        "closing_odds": 1.65,
        "clv_pending": true,
        "clv_pp": 0.0,
        "clv_status": "pending",
        "context": "match",
        "current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
        "current_stage_detail": "",
        "current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
        "entry_implied_pct": 60.61,
        "entry_odds": 1.65,
        "model_validation_label": "Warning",
        "model_validation_status": "warning",
        "stages": [
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "forecast_generated",
            "label": "Prediction Generated",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "market_detected",
            "label": "Market Compared",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "model_validated",
            "label": "Validation Passed",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "PRE1",
            "id": "closing_recorded",
            "label": "Closing Recorded",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "clv_evaluated",
            "label": "CLV Evaluated",
            "status": "pending"
          }
        ]
      },
      "market_move_intelligence": {
        "books_reacting": 2,
        "books_total": 11,
        "breadth_display": "2/11",
        "clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
        "clv_status": "evaluated",
        "current_odds": 4.33,
        "move_context": "Largest move today",
        "move_display": "\u2193 -17.5%",
        "move_pct_abs": 17.5,
        "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
        "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 23h 55m",
        "narrative_paragraphs": [
          "Bet365 led repricing on Oper\u00e1rio Ferrovi\u00e1rio (17.5%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
          "Sharper sportsbooks initiated the move, but wider market participation remains limited."
        ],
        "narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
        "odds_path": {
          "display": "5.30 \u2192 4.33 \u2192 4.33",
          "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
          "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 23h 55m",
          "pick_team": "Oper\u00e1rio Ferrovi\u00e1rio",
          "points": [
            {
              "label_key": "open",
              "value": "5.30"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "extreme",
              "value": "4.33"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "current",
              "value": "4.33"
            }
          ],
          "sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,6.8 56.0,18.0",
          "sparkline_trend": "down",
          "sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop"
        },
        "open_odds": 5.25,
        "page_alert_line": "",
        "phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
        "phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
        "pick_team": "Oper\u00e1rio Ferrovi\u00e1rio",
        "ref_book": "Bet365",
        "seo_title_alert": "",
        "sharp_leader": "Bet365",
        "show": true,
        "signal_badge_class": "confirm",
        "signal_icon": "\u26a1",
        "signal_key": "sharp_led",
        "signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
        "steam_score": 49,
        "steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
        "steam_tier": "B",
        "title": "Market Move Intelligence"
      },
      "market_overview": {
        "breadth_display": "2/11",
        "current_odds": 4.33,
        "move_display": "\u2193 -17.5%",
        "open_odds": 5.25,
        "pick_team": "Oper\u00e1rio Ferrovi\u00e1rio",
        "steam_score": 49,
        "steam_team_name": "Oper\u00e1rio Ferrovi\u00e1rio",
        "steam_tier": "B"
      },
      "premium_teaser": {
        "current_divergence_pp": 13.9,
        "divergence_label": "Current divergence",
        "title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
        "unlock_items": [
          "Historical similar matches",
          "Closing odds analysis",
          "CLV tracking",
          "Sharp money signals",
          "Market efficiency rating",
          "Historical model vs market results"
        ],
        "unlock_label": "Unlock"
      },
      "show": true
    },
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 2217,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/2217.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Oper\u00e1rio Ferrovi\u00e1rio",
      "country_code": "BR",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/br.svg",
      "country_name": "Brazil",
      "fixture_id": 1538036,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_country": "Brazil",
      "home_team_id": 12277,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/12277.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Ipatinga",
      "league_country": "Brazil",
      "league_id": 76,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/76.webp",
      "league_name": "Serie D Brazil",
      "league_season": 2026,
      "match_date": "2026-06-14 19:00:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS",
      "venue_city": null,
      "venue_name": null
    },
    "match_decision": {
      "confidence": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.5
      },
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.1637,
            "best_odd": 4.9,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0198,
            "ev": -0.0131,
            "implied_prob": 0.1816,
            "model_prob": 0.3025,
            "p_final": 0.2014
          },
          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.2919,
            "best_odd": 3.19,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0053,
            "ev": -0.0932,
            "implied_prob": 0.279,
            "model_prob": 0.2971,
            "p_final": 0.2843
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.475,
            "best_odd": 1.65,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.066,
            "ev": -0.2189,
            "implied_prob": 0.5394,
            "model_prob": 0.4005,
            "p_final": 0.4734
          }
        },
        "btts": {
          "best_no_odd": 1.66,
          "best_yes_odd": 2.2,
          "edge_no": -0.1085,
          "edge_yes": 0.1085,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_no": -0.2447,
          "ev_yes": 0.199,
          "implied_no": 0.5635,
          "implied_yes": 0.4365,
          "n_bookmakers": 7,
          "reliability": "medium"
        },
        "ou25": {
          "best_over_odd": 2.25,
          "best_under_odd": 1.62,
          "edge_over": 0.0626,
          "edge_under": -0.0626,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_over": 0.0845,
          "ev_under": -0.1608,
          "implied_over": 0.4194,
          "implied_under": 0.5806,
          "n_bookmakers": 8,
          "reliability": "medium"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 2.6,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.2.0"
      },
      "balanced_alternative": null,
      "best_tracked_ev": 0.199,
      "confidence": 6.5,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
          "pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Primary line identified (+1.0)",
          "Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
          "Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.5
      },
      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": false,
        "1x2_open_contest": true,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
      },
      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
      },
      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
        "scoring_type": "balanced",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
          "draw_prob": 0.2971,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.4005,
          "over_prob": 0.482,
          "total_xg": 2.6,
          "under_prob": 0.518,
          "xg_diff": 0.04
        },
        "type": "balanced",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
      },
      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "decision": "no_bet",
          "edge": -0.066,
          "ev": -0.2189,
          "implied_prob": 0.5394,
          "max_ev_side": "away",
          "model_prob": 0.4005,
          "side": "home",
          "side_label": "Ipatinga"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.1085,
          "ev": 0.199,
          "implied_prob": 0.4365,
          "model_prob": 0.545,
          "side": "yes",
          "value_side": "yes"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.0626,
          "ev": 0.0845,
          "implied_prob": 0.4194,
          "model_prob": 0.482,
          "side": "over",
          "value_side": "over"
        }
      },
      "match_id": 1538036,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "bet",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": true,
        "code": "clear_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.199,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 1.0,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.3025,
        "draw": 0.2971,
        "home": 0.4005
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "no_ev_1x2"
      ],
      "secondary_pick": null,
      "secondary_picks": [],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Oper\u00e1rio Ferrovi\u00e1rio",
        "home": "Ipatinga"
      },
      "top_pick": {
        "composite_score": 0.108455,
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.199,
        "implied_prob": 0.4365,
        "market": "btts",
        "model_prob": 0.545,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "yes",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
      },
      "valid_markets_count": 2
    }
  },
  "fixture_id": 1538036,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-06-14T18:59:24.713487+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}

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Serie D Brazil Serie D Brazil — Kedudukan
# PASUKAN P M S K Mata
1 Manauara 10 6 4 0 22
2 Nacional AM 10 6 2 2 20
3 São Raimundo 10 3 4 3 13
4 Monte Roraima 10 2 4 4 10
5 Manaus FC 10 2 4 4 10
6 GAS 10 1 2 7 5
# PASUKAN P J B +/- Mata
1 Nacional AM 10 15 9 +6 20
2 Manauara 10 13 5 +8 22
3 Monte Roraima 10 11 14 -3 10
4 São Raimundo 10 10 7 +3 13
5 Manaus FC 10 8 13 -5 10
6 GAS 10 8 17 -9 5