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Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the model’s highlighted side (or lean) to what happened at full time.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 CFR 1907 Cluj Draw ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-0, 1-1, 0-0, 0-1, 2-0 1-1 ✔ Correct
AI briefing is not available yet for this match. Run “Batch generate odds” again after upgrading the server to generate the summary.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "c60465e9f55112960819b2783ccef287767b98eccbda0feb9bfe550827435aac",
"decision_algo_version": "2.1.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 0.89,
"away_win_prob": 0.2684,
"btts_no_prob": 0.584,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.416,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.3383,
"fair_odds_away": 3.73,
"fair_odds_draw": 2.96,
"fair_odds_home": 2.54,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.13,
"home_win_prob": 0.3933,
"over_25_prob": 0.329,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"under_25_prob": 0.671
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Double chance : CFR 1907 Cluj or draw and -3.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "CFR 1907 Cluj"
},
"away_xg": 0.89,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "CFR 1907 Cluj",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.1306,
"edge_gap": 0.0559,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.5244,
"model_prob": 0.3938,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 26.8,
"draw": 33.8,
"home": 39.4
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 1.79
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 1.79,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "CFR 1907 Cluj Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 1.91,
"market_odds": 1.79,
"model_odds": 2.54,
"overround": 6.5,
"prob_edge": -16.5,
"value_pct": -29.5,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 17,
"away_failed_to_score": 12,
"away_played": 39,
"away_score_rate": 58.9,
"home_clean_sheet": 12,
"home_failed_to_score": 7,
"home_played": 39,
"home_score_rate": 67.7,
"no_prob": 58.4,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 58.4,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 41.6
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 0.89,
"home_expected": 1.13,
"scores": [
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 15.0
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 13.3
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 13.3
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 11.8
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 8.5
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "CFR 1907 Cluj or Draw",
"prob": 73.1
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "CFR 1907 Cluj or Arges Pitesti",
"prob": 66.1
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Arges Pitesti",
"prob": 60.6
}
],
"pick_key": "1X",
"pick_label": "CFR 1907 Cluj or Draw",
"pick_prob": 73.1
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 26.8,
"draw_pct": 33.8,
"home_pct": 39.3,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "CFR 1907 Cluj"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "-3.5",
"avg_total": 2.02,
"away_avg_scored": 1.1,
"confidence": "high",
"home_avg_scored": 1.4,
"over_prob": 32.9,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 67.1,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.02,
"under_prob": 67.1
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 20.9,
"implied_prob": 22.2,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Arges Pitesti Win",
"model_prob": 26.8,
"odds": 4.51
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Arges Pitesti",
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "CFR 1907 Cluj",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 52.44,
"gap_pp": -13.06,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 39.38
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 26.74,
"gap_pp": 7.05,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 33.8
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 20.81,
"gap_pp": 6.01,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 26.82
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 42.53,
"gap_pp": -9.63,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 32.9
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 57.47,
"gap_pp": 9.63,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 67.1
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 1.79,
"early": 1.79,
"implied_closing_pct": 52.44,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 52.44,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.51,
"early": 3.51,
"implied_closing_pct": 26.74,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 26.74,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 4.51,
"early": 4.51,
"implied_closing_pct": 20.81,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 20.81,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 2.23,
"early": 2.23,
"implied_closing_pct": 42.53,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 42.53,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.65,
"early": 1.65,
"implied_closing_pct": 57.47,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 57.47,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 9.6,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 15.0
}
},
"home_xg": 1.13,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2598,
"ev_under": 0.1407,
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.1407,
"over_prob": 32.9,
"sort_key": 10276.63,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 67.1,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0512,
"ev_yes": -0.1264,
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0512,
"no_prob": 58.4,
"sort_key": 10046.08,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 41.6
},
{
"decision": "no_bet",
"ev": -0.1741,
"ev_available": true,
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.5244,
"max_ev": 0.0051,
"model_prob": 0.3938,
"side_label": "CFR 1907 Cluj",
"sort_key": 5204.08,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 825.0,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-0",
"top_prob": 15.0
}
],
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 2592,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/2592.webp",
"away_team_name": "Arges Pitesti",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ro.svg",
"country_name": "Romania",
"fixture_id": 1531647,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_id": 2246,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/2246.webp",
"home_team_name": "CFR 1907 Cluj",
"league_country": "Romania",
"league_id": 283,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/283.webp",
"league_name": "Liga I",
"league_season": 2025,
"match_date": "2026-05-23 15:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_draw_above_30"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 5.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.182,
"best_odd": 4.51,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0109,
"ev": -0.012,
"implied_prob": 0.2081,
"model_prob": 0.2682,
"p_final": 0.2191
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2683,
"best_odd": 3.51,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0189,
"ev": 0.0051,
"implied_prob": 0.2674,
"model_prob": 0.338,
"p_final": 0.2864
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4825,
"best_odd": 1.79,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.063,
"ev": -0.1741,
"implied_prob": 0.5244,
"model_prob": 0.3938,
"p_final": 0.4614
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 1.8,
"best_yes_odd": 2.1,
"edge_no": 0.0529,
"edge_yes": -0.0529,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0512,
"ev_yes": -0.1264,
"implied_no": 0.5311,
"implied_yes": 0.4689,
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 2.25,
"best_under_odd": 1.7,
"edge_over": -0.1094,
"edge_under": 0.1094,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2598,
"ev_under": 0.1407,
"implied_over": 0.4384,
"implied_under": 0.5616,
"n_bookmakers": 12,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.02,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-04-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.1.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1407,
"confidence": 6.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_draw_above_30",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
"scoring_type": "neutral",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.416,
"draw_prob": 0.338,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3938,
"over_prob": 0.329,
"total_xg": 2.02,
"under_prob": 0.671,
"xg_diff": 0.24
},
"type": "neutral",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.063,
"ev": -0.1741,
"implied_prob": 0.5244,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3938,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "CFR 1907 Cluj"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0529,
"ev": 0.0512,
"implied_prob": 0.5311,
"model_prob": 0.584,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.1094,
"ev": 0.1407,
"implied_prob": 0.5616,
"model_prob": 0.671,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1531647,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1407,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.2682,
"draw": 0.338,
"home": 0.3938
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Arges Pitesti",
"home": "CFR 1907 Cluj"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.09441,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1407,
"implied_prob": 0.5616,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.671,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2
}
},
"fixture_id": 1531647,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-05-23T20:20:17.478383+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
How to use this
- Focus on the Primary line when you want one actionable idea.
- Do not parlay many thin-edge picks together; edges do not add reliably.
- Treat longshots as optional, high-stake-sizing plays only.
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Liga I — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Universitatea Craiova | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 50 |
| 2 | Universitatea Cluj | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 46 |
| 3 | CFR 1907 Cluj | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 43 |
| 4 | Dinamo Bucuresti | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 39 |
| 5 | Rapid | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 34 |
| 6 | Arges Pitesti | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 32 |
| 7 | FCSB | 30 | 13 | 7 | 10 | 46 |
| 8 | Uta Arad | 30 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 43 |
| 9 | FC Botosani | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 42 |
| 10 | Oţelul | 30 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 41 |
| 11 | Farul Constanta | 30 | 10 | 7 | 13 | 37 |
| 12 | Petrolul Ploiesti | 30 | 7 | 11 | 12 | 32 |
| 13 | Csikszereda | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | 32 |
| 14 | Unirea Slobozia | 30 | 7 | 4 | 19 | 25 |
| 15 | AFC Hermannstadt | 30 | 5 | 8 | 17 | 23 |
| 16 | Metaloglobus | 30 | 2 | 6 | 22 | 12 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FCSB | 30 | 48 | 40 | +8 | 46 |
| 2 | Oţelul | 30 | 39 | 32 | +7 | 41 |
| 3 | Farul Constanta | 30 | 39 | 37 | +2 | 37 |
| 4 | Uta Arad | 30 | 39 | 44 | -5 | 43 |
| 5 | FC Botosani | 30 | 37 | 29 | +8 | 42 |
| 6 | Csikszereda | 30 | 30 | 58 | -28 | 32 |
| 7 | AFC Hermannstadt | 30 | 29 | 50 | -21 | 23 |
| 8 | Unirea Slobozia | 30 | 27 | 46 | -19 | 25 |
| 9 | Metaloglobus | 30 | 25 | 66 | -41 | 12 |
| 10 | Petrolul Ploiesti | 30 | 24 | 31 | -7 | 32 |
| 11 | Universitatea Cluj | 10 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 46 |
| 12 | Dinamo Bucuresti | 10 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 39 |
| 13 | Universitatea Craiova | 10 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 50 |
| 14 | CFR 1907 Cluj | 10 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 43 |
| 15 | Rapid | 10 | 8 | 14 | -6 | 34 |
| 16 | Arges Pitesti | 10 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 32 |
| # | TEAM | MP | xG | xGC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FCSB | 30 | 50.6 | 28.2 | +22.4 | 46 |
| 2 | Dinamo Bucuresti | 10 | 43.7 | 24.3 | +19.4 | 39 |
| 3 | Universitatea Craiova | 10 | 37.5 | 24.4 | +13.1 | 50 |
| 4 | Oţelul | 30 | 41.3 | 33.1 | +8.2 | 41 |
| 5 | Farul Constanta | 30 | 37.8 | 33.2 | +4.6 | 37 |
| 6 | CFR 1907 Cluj | 10 | 34.8 | 32.4 | +2.4 | 43 |
| 7 | Rapid | 10 | 35.3 | 33.2 | +2.1 | 34 |
| 8 | FC Botosani | 30 | 33.9 | 32.2 | +1.7 | 42 |
| 9 | Universitatea Cluj | 10 | 32.0 | 30.8 | +1.2 | 46 |
| 10 | Arges Pitesti | 10 | 26.0 | 25.8 | +0.2 | 32 |
| 11 | AFC Hermannstadt | 30 | 29.8 | 31.9 | -2.1 | 23 |
| 12 | Petrolul Ploiesti | 30 | 28.9 | 34.5 | -5.6 | 32 |
| 13 | Uta Arad | 30 | 33.5 | 42.0 | -8.5 | 43 |
| 14 | Unirea Slobozia | 30 | 26.9 | 39.8 | -12.9 | 25 |
| 15 | Metaloglobus | 30 | 23.1 | 42.4 | -19.3 | 12 |
| 16 | Csikszereda | 30 | 22.9 | 49.8 | -26.9 | 32 |
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