Statistik / Bola Sepak / Gambia. Liga GFA / Samger vs Bombada

Samger vs Bombada Statistics & Analysis

Jun 17, 2026 - 16:30
2 0.85
1 0.95
xG Accuracy: 72%
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Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa

Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.

  • Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
  • Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Ya ✖ tak betul
  • 1X2 draw Samger ✖ tak betul
  • Cerapan skor tepat 0-0, 0-1, 1-0, 1-1, 0-2 2-1 ✖ tak betul

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 30, 2026 · 15:22 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2519686

Closing Odds 2.24
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Samger win · Samger 2–1 Bombada
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Intelijen pasaran

Bacaan selepas pilihan utama: bagaimana suapan penutup berprioriti bergerak berbanding model.

Ringkasan pasaran

Pasaran kekal stabil menjelang sepakan. Tiada anjakan implied ketara antara PRE30 dan PRE1 pada snapshot berprioriti.

Walaupun pergerakan lewat kecil, model masih menilai Lukis (1X2),Bombada (1X2),Bawah 2.5 gol jauh melebihi implied snapshot penutupan — bacaan statik "model vs harga", bukan kejaran steam.

Model masih melebihi implied penutupan pada Bawah 2.5 gol kira-kira 8.4 mata peratus — isyarat salah harga paling jelas pada halaman ini.

Model vs implied penutup

Pasaran Model % Implied penutup % Jurang (pp)
Samger (1X2) 29.2 39.7 -10.5
Lukis (1X2) 36.2 29.1 +7.1
Bombada (1X2) 34.6 31.2 +3.4
Lebih 2.5 gol 26.9 35.3 -8.4
Bawah 2.5 gol 73.1 64.7 +8.4
Apa maksudnya

Secara ringkas: model kira-kira 73.1% pada Bawah 2.5 gol, manakala snapshot penutup menunjukkan kira-kira 64.7%. Bezanya — kira-kira 8.4 mata peratus — ialah jurang model-vs-pasaran terbesar yang ditonjolkan di halaman ini.

Ringkas: "implied penutup" ialah kebarangkalian terbit daripada odds akhir yang ditangkap (selepas de-vig ringkas). "Jurang (pp)" = peratus model tolak implied tersebut, dalam mata peratus (pp).

Pergerakan garisan menjelang sepakan mula

Satu buku prioriti setiap snapshot (bukan semua). Laluan tangkapan: PRE30 → PRE1 · Buku: Pinnacle

Dalam kurungan pada lajur: Penutup = snapshot pertama tersedia ikut PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Awal = pertama dalam PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 yang berbeza daripada Penutup.

Odds terperinci dilipat di bawah — pergerakan implied (de-vig) boleh diabaikan.

Lihat jadual penuh baris demi baris
Pasaran Awal (PRE30) Penutup (PRE1) Δ tersirat (pp)
Samger (1X2) 2.24 2.24 0.0
Lukis (1X2) 3.05 3.05 0.0
Bombada (1X2) 2.85 2.85 0.0
Lebih 2.5 gol 2.58 2.58 0.0
Bawah 2.5 gol 1.41 1.41 0.0

Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.

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        "alert_breadth_note": "7/11 sportsbooks confirmed",
        "alert_move": "\u2191 +48.9%",
        "alert_team": "Bombada",
        "alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
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        "status_key": "caution",
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        "steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
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          "outcome": "draw"
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          "market_prob": 31.18,
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          "outcome": "away"
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        {
          "edge_pp": -8.38,
          "fair_prob": 26.9,
          "label": "Over 2.5",
          "market_prob": 35.28,
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          "outcome": "over"
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        {
          "edge_pp": 8.38,
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          "outcome": "under"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -6.15,
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          "label": "BTTS Yes",
          "market_prob": 43.05,
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          "outcome": "yes"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 6.15,
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          "label": "BTTS No",
          "market_prob": 56.95,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "no"
        }
      ],
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        "edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
        "edge_pp": -10.56,
        "fair_prob_pct": 29.12,
        "hero_side": "home",
        "hero_team_name": "Samger",
        "market_prob_pct": 39.68,
        "status": "market_ahead",
        "steam_team_name": "Bombada"
      },
      "fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
      "fair_vs_market": {
        "comparison_available": true,
        "comparison_disabled": false,
        "degraded_note": "",
        "divergence_guard": {
          "divergence_level": "strong",
          "edge_status": "market_ahead",
          "max_gap_pp": 10.56,
          "suppress_hero": false,
          "suppress_value_language": false
        },
        "divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
        "divergence_level": "strong",
        "divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
        "divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
        "divergence_tier": "strong",
        "edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
        "edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
        "fair_confidence": "medium",
        "fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
        "fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
        "forecast_assessment": {
          "favourite_class": "Balanced match",
          "favourite_label": "Draw",
          "forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
          "headline": "Balanced match",
          "market_agreement_label": "Weak",
          "market_prob_pct": 29.1,
          "model_prob_pct": 36.3,
          "outcome_separation_tier": "low",
          "paragraphs": [],
          "reliability_headline": "Use caution",
          "reliability_icon": "!",
          "reliability_tier": "caution",
          "summary": "The model and market both lean Draw, but neither indicates a dominant favourite. Draw and Bombada remain plausible \u2014 this is a relatively open match.",
          "tier": "balanced",
          "title": "Prediction Assessment",
          "validation_label": "Warning"
        },
        "forecast_certainty": {
          "note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
          "tier": "low",
          "tier_label": "Low"
        },
        "forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
        "has_market_probs": true,
        "hero_edge_pp": -10.56,
        "hero_label": "Samger",
        "hero_side": "home",
        "market_activity": "Bombada odds lengthened \u2191 +48.9%.",
        "market_agreement": "weak",
        "market_agreement_label": "Weak",
        "market_interpretation": {
          "bullets": [
            "Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
            "Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
          ],
          "follow_up": "However, Bombada has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 48.9%, suggesting weakening support.",
          "gap_tier": "strong",
          "lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Samger than the current fair estimate.",
          "note": "Drift away from Bombada \u2014 odds lengthened by 48.9% (weakening support).",
          "paragraphs": [
            "The market is materially more optimistic about Samger than the current fair estimate.",
            "However, Bombada has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 48.9%, suggesting weakening support.",
            "Drift away from Bombada \u2014 odds lengthened by 48.9% (weakening support)."
          ],
          "quiet_market": false,
          "title": "Market Assessment"
        },
        "market_narrative": {
          "paragraphs": [
            "The market favors Samger more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
            "At the same time, Bombada has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 48.9%, suggesting weakening support."
          ],
          "title": "Current Market Narrative"
        },
        "max_gap_pp": 10.56,
        "model_validation": {
          "score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
          "status": "warning"
        },
        "model_validation_label": "Warning",
        "outcome_separation": {
          "breakdown": [
            "No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
            "Top two 1X2 outcomes within 1.7 percentage points."
          ],
          "lead_gap_pp": 1.7,
          "max_prob_pct": 36.3,
          "note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
          "tier": "low",
          "tier_label": "Low"
        },
        "outcome_separation_label": "Low",
        "rows": [
          {
            "edge_pp": -10.56,
            "fair_prob_pct": 29.12,
            "is_hero": true,
            "label": "Samger",
            "market_prob_pct": 39.68,
            "side": "home"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": 7.16,
            "fair_prob_pct": 36.3,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Draw",
            "market_prob_pct": 29.14,
            "side": "draw"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": 3.4,
            "fair_prob_pct": 34.58,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Bombada",
            "market_prob_pct": 31.18,
            "side": "away"
          }
        ],
        "status": "market_ahead",
        "status_label": "Market Ahead",
        "steam_note": "Drift away from Bombada \u2014 odds lengthened by 48.9% (weakening support).",
        "unavailable_note": ""
      },
      "interpretation": {
        "has_conflict": true,
        "paragraphs": [
          "The betting market strongly prefers Samger (29.1%).",
          "However, Bombada has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2191 +48.9%, 7/11).",
          "This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Draw, Market \u2192 Samger, Recent sharp money \u2192 Bombada.",
          "Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
        ],
        "show": true,
        "title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
      },
      "lifecycle": {
        "closing_implied_pct": 44.64,
        "closing_odds": 2.24,
        "clv_pending": true,
        "clv_pp": 0.0,
        "clv_status": "pending",
        "context": "match",
        "current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
        "current_stage_detail": "",
        "current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
        "entry_implied_pct": 44.64,
        "entry_odds": 2.24,
        "model_validation_label": "Warning",
        "model_validation_status": "warning",
        "stages": [
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "forecast_generated",
            "label": "Prediction Generated",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "market_detected",
            "label": "Market Compared",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "model_validated",
            "label": "Validation Passed",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "PRE1",
            "id": "closing_recorded",
            "label": "Closing Recorded",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "clv_evaluated",
            "label": "CLV Evaluated",
            "status": "pending"
          }
        ]
      },
      "market_move_intelligence": {
        "books_reacting": 7,
        "books_total": 11,
        "breadth_display": "7/11",
        "clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
        "clv_status": "evaluated",
        "current_odds": 3.5,
        "move_context": "Largest move today",
        "move_display": "\u2191 +48.9%",
        "move_pct_abs": 48.9,
        "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
        "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 12h",
        "narrative_paragraphs": [
          "Multi-book steam on Bombada (48.9%, 7/11) \u2014 aligned shortening, not a single-book blip.",
          "Sharp sportsbooks led a meaningful repricing with broad market follow-through."
        ],
        "narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
        "odds_path": {
          "display": "3.50 \u2192 2.30 \u2192 3.50",
          "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
          "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 12h",
          "pick_team": "Bombada",
          "points": [
            {
              "label_key": "open",
              "value": "3.50"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "extreme",
              "value": "2.30"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "current",
              "value": "3.50"
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          ],
          "sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,10.2 56.0,0.0",
          "sparkline_trend": "up",
          "sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise"
        },
        "open_odds": 2.35,
        "page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: Bombada \u2191 +48.9% market move detected",
        "phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
        "phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
        "pick_team": "Bombada",
        "ref_book": "Bet365",
        "seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: Bombada \u2191 +48.9% market move detected",
        "sharp_leader": "Bet365",
        "show": true,
        "signal_badge_class": "confirm",
        "signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc8",
        "signal_key": "market_steam",
        "signal_label": "Steam",
        "steam_score": 80,
        "steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
        "steam_tier": "A+",
        "title": "Market Move Intelligence"
      },
      "market_overview": {
        "breadth_display": "7/11",
        "current_odds": 3.5,
        "move_display": "\u2191 +48.9%",
        "open_odds": 2.35,
        "pick_team": "Bombada",
        "steam_score": 80,
        "steam_team_name": "Bombada",
        "steam_tier": "A+"
      },
      "premium_teaser": {
        "current_divergence_pp": 10.6,
        "divergence_label": "Current divergence",
        "title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
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          "Historical similar matches",
          "Closing odds analysis",
          "CLV tracking",
          "Sharp money signals",
          "Market efficiency rating",
          "Historical model vs market results"
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        "unlock_label": "Unlock"
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      "show": true
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    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 22707,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/22707.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Bombada",
      "country_code": "GM",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/gm.svg",
      "country_name": "Gambia",
      "fixture_id": 1531388,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_country": "Gambia",
      "home_team_id": 18107,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/18107.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Samger",
      "league_country": "Gambia",
      "league_id": 845,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/845.webp",
      "league_name": "Liga GFA",
      "league_season": 2025,
      "match_date": "2026-06-17 16:30:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS",
      "venue_city": null,
      "venue_name": null
    },
    "match_decision": {
      "confidence": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
          "pred_conf_md_draw_above_30"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
          "Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
          "Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)"
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        "score": 5.5
      },
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.4269,
            "best_odd": 2.85,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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            "edge": 0.0146,
            "ev": -0.0696,
            "implied_prob": 0.3118,
            "model_prob": 0.3461,
            "p_final": 0.3265
          },
          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.2681,
            "best_odd": 3.05,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.019,
            "ev": -0.0532,
            "implied_prob": 0.2914,
            "model_prob": 0.3624,
            "p_final": 0.3104
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          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.379,
            "best_odd": 2.24,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0399,
            "ev": -0.2005,
            "implied_prob": 0.3968,
            "model_prob": 0.2916,
            "p_final": 0.3569
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        },
        "btts": {
          "best_no_odd": 1.68,
          "best_yes_odd": 2.22,
          "edge_no": 0.0615,
          "edge_yes": -0.0615,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_no": 0.0601,
          "ev_yes": -0.1808,
          "implied_no": 0.5695,
          "implied_yes": 0.4305,
          "n_bookmakers": 7,
          "reliability": "medium"
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        "ou25": {
          "best_over_odd": 2.75,
          "best_under_odd": 1.46,
          "edge_over": -0.0838,
          "edge_under": 0.0838,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_over": -0.2603,
          "ev_under": 0.0673,
          "implied_over": 0.3528,
          "implied_under": 0.6472,
          "n_bookmakers": 7,
          "reliability": "medium"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 1.8,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.2.0"
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      "balanced_alternative": null,
      "best_tracked_ev": 0.0673,
      "confidence": 5.0,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
          "pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_v1_draw_above_30",
          "pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Primary line identified (+1.0)",
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
          "Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)",
          "Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 5.0
      },
      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": false,
        "1x2_open_contest": true,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
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      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
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      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u6781\u7aef\u9632\u5b88\uff08\u4f4e\u8fdb\u7403\uff09",
        "scoring_type": "defensive",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.369,
          "draw_prob": 0.3624,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.3624,
          "over_prob": 0.269,
          "total_xg": 1.8,
          "under_prob": 0.731,
          "xg_diff": 0.1
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        "type": "defensive",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
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      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "decision": "no_bet",
          "edge": 0.019,
          "ev": -0.0532,
          "implied_prob": 0.2914,
          "max_ev_side": "draw",
          "model_prob": 0.3624,
          "side": "draw",
          "side_label": "draw"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.0615,
          "ev": 0.0601,
          "implied_prob": 0.5695,
          "model_prob": 0.631,
          "side": "no",
          "value_side": "no"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.0838,
          "ev": 0.0673,
          "implied_prob": 0.6472,
          "model_prob": 0.731,
          "side": "under",
          "value_side": "under"
        }
      },
      "match_id": 1531388,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "optional",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": false,
        "code": "thin_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.0673,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 0.25,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.3461,
        "draw": 0.3624,
        "home": 0.2916
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "no_ev_1x2"
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      "secondary_pick": null,
      "secondary_picks": [],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Bombada",
        "home": "Samger"
      },
      "top_pick": {
        "composite_score": 0.063955,
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.0673,
        "implied_prob": 0.6472,
        "market": "ou_2_5",
        "model_prob": 0.731,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "under",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
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      "valid_markets_count": 2
    }
  },
  "fixture_id": 1531388,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-06-17T16:29:09.256041+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}

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Liga GFA Liga GFA — Kedudukan
# PASUKAN P M S K Mata
1 Medina United 28 14 6 8 48
2 Fortune 28 12 11 5 47
3 Bombada 28 11 11 6 44
4 GPA 28 11 11 6 44
5 Brikama United 28 11 9 8 42
6 Real de Banjul 28 9 14 5 41
7 Team Rhino 28 9 10 9 37
8 Hart Acedemy 28 8 11 9 35
9 Dutch Lions 28 7 12 9 33
10 BST Galaxy 28 7 12 9 33
11 Hawks 28 7 10 11 31
12 Falcons 28 6 13 9 31
13 Greater Tomorrow 28 7 10 11 31
14 Steve Biko 28 5 14 9 29
15 TMT 28 6 11 11 29
16 Samger 28 5 13 10 28
# PASUKAN P J B +/- Mata
1 Bombada 28 34 26 +8 44
2 Brikama United 28 33 27 +6 42
3 Hart Acedemy 28 32 31 +1 35
4 Fortune 28 31 21 +10 47
5 Medina United 28 31 24 +7 48
6 Dutch Lions 28 29 28 +1 33
7 Real de Banjul 28 28 21 +7 41
8 Team Rhino 28 25 23 +2 37
9 BST Galaxy 28 24 31 -7 33
10 Steve Biko 28 23 26 -3 29
11 Hawks 28 23 29 -6 31
12 GPA 28 22 17 +5 44
13 Greater Tomorrow 28 22 32 -10 31
14 Samger 28 20 25 -5 28
15 TMT 28 17 27 -10 29
16 Falcons 28 16 22 -6 31