Dinamo Moskva II vs Dinamo Bryansk Statistics & Analysis

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      "afp_draw_prob": 0.2964,
      "afp_home_win_prob": 0.3341,
      "away_predicted_xg": 1.31,
      "away_win_prob": 0.3695,
      "away_win_prob_posterior": 0.3695,
      "bayes_applied": 1,
      "btts_no_prob": 0.463,
      "btts_yes_prob": 0.537,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
      "draw_prob": 0.2964,
      "draw_prob_posterior": 0.2964,
      "fair_odds_away": 2.71,
      "fair_odds_away_posterior": 2.71,
      "fair_odds_draw": 3.37,
      "fair_odds_draw_posterior": 3.37,
      "fair_odds_home": 2.99,
      "fair_odds_home_posterior": 2.99,
      "home_predicted_xg": 1.25,
      "home_win_prob": 0.3341,
      "home_win_prob_posterior": 0.3341,
      "over_25_prob": 0.472,
      "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
      "under_25_prob": 0.529
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    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "Double chance : draw or Dinamo Bryansk",
      "main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
      "percent_away": "45%",
      "percent_draw": "45%",
      "percent_home": "10%",
      "winner_name": "Dinamo Bryansk"
    },
    "away_xg": 1.31,
    "betting_insight": {
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      "confidence": null,
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        "confidence": "low",
        "display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
        "edge": -0.0339,
        "edge_gap": 0.0345,
        "market": "1X2",
        "market_prob": 0.4028,
        "model_prob": 0.3689,
        "pick_type": "no_strong",
        "probabilities": {
          "away": 36.9,
          "draw": 29.7,
          "home": 33.4
        },
        "reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
        "selection": null,
        "selection_name": null
      },
      "market_comparison": [
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
          "odd": 2.23
        }
      ],
      "risk_color": null,
      "risk_key": null,
      "stacked_market": null,
      "value_bet": {
        "best_odds": 2.23,
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
        "display_market": "Dinamo Bryansk Win",
        "is_value": false,
        "label": "Away",
        "market_fair_odds": 2.48,
        "market_odds": 2.23,
        "model_odds": 2.71,
        "overround": 11.3,
        "prob_edge": -7.9,
        "value_pct": -17.7,
        "value_rating": "no_value"
      }
    },
    "betting_markets": {
      "btts": {
        "away_clean_sheet": 6,
        "away_failed_to_score": 4,
        "away_played": 16,
        "away_score_rate": 73.0,
        "home_clean_sheet": 0,
        "home_failed_to_score": 4,
        "home_played": 16,
        "home_score_rate": 71.3,
        "no_prob": 46.3,
        "pick": "Yes",
        "pick_prob": 53.7,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": false,
        "yes_prob": 53.7
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        "home_expected": 1.25,
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            "away": 1,
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            "label": "1-1",
            "prob": 12.7
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            "away": 1,
            "home": 0,
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            "prob": 10.1
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            "prob": 9.7
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            "prob": 8.3
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            "away": 1,
            "home": 2,
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        ],
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      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
          {
            "key": "1X",
            "label": "Dinamo Moskva II or Draw",
            "prob": 63.0
          },
          {
            "key": "12",
            "label": "Dinamo Moskva II or Dinamo Bryansk",
            "prob": 70.4
          },
          {
            "key": "X2",
            "label": "Draw or Dinamo Bryansk",
            "prob": 66.6
          }
        ],
        "pick_key": "12",
        "pick_label": "Dinamo Moskva II or Dinamo Bryansk",
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        "away_pct": 37.0,
        "draw_pct": 29.6,
        "home_pct": 33.4,
        "lean_key": "away",
        "lean_label": "Dinamo Bryansk"
      },
      "over_under": {
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        "avg_total": 2.56,
        "away_avg_scored": 1.2,
        "confidence": "low",
        "home_avg_scored": 1.6,
        "over_prob": 47.1,
        "pick": "Under 2.5",
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        "strong_pick": true,
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        "under_prob": 52.8
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      "prob_source": "poisson",
      "value_bet_enhanced": {
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        "bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
        "edge": -17.7,
        "implied_prob": 44.8,
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        "label": "Away",
        "market": "Dinamo Bryansk Win",
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        "odds": 2.23
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        "label": "1-1",
        "prob": 12.7
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    "home_xg": 1.25,
    "homepage_pick": null,
    "market_cards": [
      {
        "decision": "small_edge",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_over": -0.1757,
        "ev_over_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": -17.6,
          "text": "-17.6%"
        },
        "ev_under": 0.0243,
        "ev_under_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": 2.4,
          "text": "+2.4%"
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        "featured": true,
        "id": "ou_2_5",
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        "sort_key": 5219.44,
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        "value_side": "under"
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          "text": "+0.5%"
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        "ev_yes": -0.1462,
        "ev_yes_display": {
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          "raw_pct": -14.6,
          "text": "-14.6%"
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        "id": "btts",
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        "tier": "lean",
        "value_side": "no",
        "yes_prob": 53.7
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      {
        "decision": "no_bet",
        "ev": -0.134,
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        "ev_display": {
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          "raw_pct": -13.4,
          "text": "-13.4%"
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          "raw_pct": -7.7,
          "text": "-7.7%"
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      "away_team_id": 6795,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/6795.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Dinamo Bryansk",
      "country_code": "RU",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/ru.svg",
      "country_name": "Russia",
      "fixture_id": 1526744,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_country": "Russia",
      "home_team_id": 14139,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/14139.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Dinamo Moskva II",
      "league_country": "Russia",
      "league_id": 1026,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/1026.webp",
      "league_name": "Second League A - Division A Silver",
      "league_season": 2025,
      "match_date": "2026-06-06 10:00:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS",
      "venue_city": null,
      "venue_name": null
    },
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          "pred_conf_md_few_books_ou",
          "pred_conf_md_few_books_btts"
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        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
          "Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
          "Few bookmakers for O/U odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)",
          "Few bookmakers for BTTS odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)"
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        "score": 5.0
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          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
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            "best_odd": 2.23,
            "calibration": {
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              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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            "edge": -0.0145,
            "ev": -0.134,
            "implied_prob": 0.4028,
            "model_prob": 0.3689,
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          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.2882,
            "best_odd": 3.32,
            "calibration": {
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              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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            "edge": 0.0075,
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              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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          "best_yes_odd": 1.59,
          "edge_no": 0.0379,
          "edge_yes": -0.0379,
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          "ev_no": 0.0047,
          "ev_yes": -0.1462,
          "implied_no": 0.4251,
          "implied_yes": 0.5749,
          "n_bookmakers": 2,
          "reliability": "low"
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          "best_under_odd": 1.94,
          "edge_over": -0.0547,
          "edge_under": 0.0537,
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          "ev_over": -0.1757,
          "ev_under": 0.0243,
          "implied_over": 0.5257,
          "implied_under": 0.4743,
          "n_bookmakers": 2,
          "reliability": "low"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 2.56,
      "variance_flag": false
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      "algorithm": {
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      "best_tracked_ev": 0.0243,
      "confidence": 4.0,
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          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
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        "score": 4.0
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      "execution": {
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        "1x2_open_contest": true,
        "grade": "C",
        "stake_factor": 0.0
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      "game_type": {
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        "scoring_type": "balanced",
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          "max_1x2_prob": 0.3689,
          "over_prob": 0.471,
          "total_xg": 2.56,
          "under_prob": 0.528,
          "xg_diff": 0.06
        },
        "type": "balanced",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
      },
      "hero_display_pick": {
        "decision": "small_edge",
        "ev": 0.0243,
        "hero_display_only": true,
        "implied_prob": 0.4743,
        "market": "ou_2_5",
        "model_prob": 0.528,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "hero_display",
        "side": "under",
        "slot": "hero_display"
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          "max_ev_side": "draw",
          "model_prob": 0.3689,
          "side": "away",
          "side_label": "Dinamo Bryansk"
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        "btts": {
          "decision": "small_edge",
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          "model_prob": 0.463,
          "side": "no",
          "value_side": "no"
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        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "small_edge",
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          "side": "under",
          "value_side": "under"
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      "match_regime": {
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        "actionable": false,
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        "code": "thin_edge",
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        "max_valid_ev": 0.0243,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 0.25,
        "use_split_strip": true
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.3689,
        "draw": 0.2967,
        "home": 0.3344
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      "reason_codes": [
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      "secondary_pick": null,
      "secondary_picks": [],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Dinamo Bryansk",
        "home": "Dinamo Moskva II"
      },
      "top_pick": null,
      "valid_markets_count": 1
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  "generated_at_utc": "2026-06-06T18:09:18.905102+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}