Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 matlamat) ✔ Betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Tidak ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Vila Nova Vila Nova ✔ Betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 0-1, 1-1, 0-0, 1-0, 0-2 0-2 ✔ Betul
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.75
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Vila Nova win · Nautico Recife 0–2 Vila Nova
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.28,
"away_win_prob": 0.4161,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.532,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.468,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.3165,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.4,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.16,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 3.74,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 0.98,
"home_win_prob": 0.2674,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.393,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under_25_prob": 0.607
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Vila Nova",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Vila Nova"
},
"away_xg": 1.28,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Vila Nova",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.0615,
"edge_gap": 0.1002,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.3549,
"model_prob": 0.4165,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 41.6,
"draw": 31.6,
"home": 26.7
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.69
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"odd": 2.67
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"odd": 2.65
},
{
"affi_link": "https://banners.dfbanners.com/redirect.aspx?pid=79572\u0026bid=19634\u0026redirectURL=http://www.dafabet.com/",
"bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
"odd": 2.65
},
{
"affi_link": "https://reffpa.com/L?tag=d_4682699m_1260c_\u0026site=4682699\u0026ad=1260",
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"odd": 2.65
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"odd": 2.63
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"odd": 2.62
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"odd": 2.6
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.69,
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Vila Nova Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 2.82,
"market_odds": 2.61,
"model_odds": 2.4,
"overround": 7.9,
"prob_edge": 4.5,
"value_pct": 12.1,
"value_rating": "value_bet"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 12,
"away_failed_to_score": 8,
"away_played": 31,
"away_score_rate": 72.2,
"home_clean_sheet": 8,
"home_failed_to_score": 10,
"home_played": 31,
"home_score_rate": 62.5,
"no_prob": 53.2,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 53.2,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 46.8
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.28,
"home_expected": 0.98,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 13.4
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 13.1
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 10.4
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.2
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-2",
"prob": 8.5
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Nautico Recife or Draw",
"prob": 58.3
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Nautico Recife or Vila Nova",
"prob": 68.3
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Vila Nova",
"prob": 73.2
}
],
"pick_key": "X2",
"pick_label": "Draw or Vila Nova",
"pick_prob": 73.2
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 41.6,
"draw_pct": 31.6,
"home_pct": 26.7,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Vila Nova"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.26,
"away_avg_scored": 1.4,
"confidence": "medium",
"home_avg_scored": 1.3,
"over_prob": 39.3,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 60.7,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.26,
"under_prob": 60.7
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 12.1,
"implied_prob": 37.2,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Vila Nova Win",
"model_prob": 41.7,
"odds": 2.69
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"has_data": false
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": 2.0,
"ev": 0.1725,
"has_edge": true,
"label": "0-1",
"market_odds": 8.75,
"market_prob": 0.1143,
"market_prob_pct": 11.4,
"model_prob": 0.134,
"model_prob_pct": 13.4,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"status_key": "positive_edge"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 13.4
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 13.4
},
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 13.1
},
{
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 10.4
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.2
},
{
"label": "0-2",
"prob": 8.5
}
]
},
"home_xg": 0.98,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.5569,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.7,
"edge": 0.0303,
"edge_pp": 3.0,
"market_prob": 0.5526,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.607,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.5063,
"best_odd": 2.1,
"edge": -0.0275,
"ev": -0.1183,
"implied_prob": 0.4474,
"model_prob": 0.393,
"p_final": 0.4198
},
"p_final": 0.5829,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.4,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0319,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0091,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.5569,
"best_odd": 1.7,
"edge": 0.0303,
"ev": -0.0091,
"implied_prob": 0.5526,
"model_prob": 0.607,
"p_final": 0.5829
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1354,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -13.5,
"text": "-13.5%"
},
"ev_under": 0.044,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 4.4,
"text": "+4.4%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.044,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over_prob": 39.3,
"sort_key": 10039.6,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 60.7,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.4881,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.9,
"edge": 0.0229,
"edge_pp": 2.3,
"market_prob": 0.4851,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.532,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.4881,
"best_odd": 1.9,
"edge": 0.0229,
"ev": -0.0348,
"implied_prob": 0.4851,
"model_prob": 0.532,
"p_final": 0.508
},
"p_final": 0.508,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.7,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0108,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0348,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.5369,
"best_odd": 1.79,
"edge": -0.0252,
"ev": -0.1234,
"implied_prob": 0.5149,
"model_prob": 0.468,
"p_final": 0.4897
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0374,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 3.7,
"text": "+3.7%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.1248,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -12.5,
"text": "-12.5%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0374,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no_prob": 53.2,
"sort_key": 10033.66,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 46.8
},
{
"authority_action": "lean",
"authority_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"consensus_odds": 2.64,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.0013,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -0.1,
"text": "-0.1%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3522,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0013,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -0.1,
"text": "-0.1%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4165,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.4,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0996,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+10.0%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Vila Nova",
"sort_key": 2199.896,
"tier": "pass"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 820.2,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "0-1",
"top_prob": 13.4
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "10/10",
"alert_breadth_note": "10/10 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +30.2%",
"alert_team": "Nautico Recife",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 0.0,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": null,
"hero_label": "",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"market_team": "Vila Nova",
"model_prob_pct": 41.6,
"model_team": "Vila Nova",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 74,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Vila Nova)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Vila Nova)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.044,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1203,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.7,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 73,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Vila Nova at 41.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 35.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Vila Nova as the value side (41.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.4,
"gates_failed": [
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Vila Nova",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Vila Nova \u00b7 decimal odds ~4.19 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +12% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1520926 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22484.19 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +4.4% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +4.4% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +4.4% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +4.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "70 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "73 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+4.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Vila Nova).",
"Decision strength: 5.7/10",
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"Outlier price +12% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 70,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0013,
"consensus_ev_display": "-0.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.64,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3522,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4165,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3787878787878788,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0996,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+10.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -5.2,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.3
}
}
},
"bet_status": "lean",
"books_breadth_display": "10/10",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 78,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation pending",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pending",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 25.0,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 8.0
},
"score": 70,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 0.0,
"market_agreement": "unknown",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.28,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -5.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 0.98,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.28,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 0.98 \u00b7 Away xG 1.28 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -5%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pending",
"odds_delta_pct": 30.2,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +30.2%",
"steam_team": "Nautico Recife",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 73,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 68,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 41,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 68,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Vila Nova)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Vila Nova)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.044,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1203,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.7,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 73,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Vila Nova at 41.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 35.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Vila Nova as the value side (41.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.4,
"gates_failed": [
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Vila Nova",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Vila Nova \u00b7 decimal odds ~4.19 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +12% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1520926 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22484.19 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +4.4% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +4.4% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +4.4% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +4.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "70 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "73 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+4.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Vila Nova).",
"Decision strength: 5.7/10",
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"Outlier price +12% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 70,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0013,
"consensus_ev_display": "-0.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.64,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3522,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4165,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3787878787878788,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0996,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+10.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -5.2,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.3
}
}
},
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Nautico Recife 0.98 xG vs Vila Nova 1.28 \u2192 Vila Nova 41.6%",
"Market Drift: Nautico Recife odds \u2191 +30.2%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Vila Nova with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 26.74,
"label": "Nautico Recife",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 31.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 41.61,
"label": "Vila Nova",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.32,
"fair_prob": 39.3,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 44.62,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.32,
"fair_prob": 60.7,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 55.38,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.64,
"fair_prob": 46.8,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 51.44,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.64,
"fair_prob": 53.2,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 48.56,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations.",
"comparison_available": false,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "unknown",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "",
"edge_label_key": "",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Vila Nova",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "\u2014",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 35.2,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+6.4 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 6.4,
"model_prob_pct": 41.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+6.4 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 6.4,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 70,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "Vila Nova \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pending",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 73,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 68,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 41,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 68,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Nautico Recife 0.98 xG vs Vila Nova 1.28 \u2192 Vila Nova 41.6%",
"Market Drift: Nautico Recife odds \u2191 +30.2%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Vila Nova with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": false,
"hero_edge_pp": null,
"hero_label": "",
"hero_side": null,
"market_activity": "Nautico Recife odds lengthened \u2191 +30.2%.",
"market_agreement": "unknown",
"market_agreement_label": "\u2014",
"market_interpretation": {},
"market_narrative": {},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pending",
"status": "pending"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pending",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 10.0 pp (at 41.6%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 10.0,
"max_prob_pct": 41.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "",
"largest_gap_pp": null,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": null,
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob_pct": 26.74,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Nautico Recife",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "",
"signal_label": ""
},
{
"difference_pp": null,
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "",
"signal_label": ""
},
{
"difference_pp": null,
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob_pct": 41.61,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Vila Nova",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "",
"signal_label": ""
}
],
"status": "unknown",
"status_label": "\u2014",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical model leans Vila Nova (41.6%).",
"However, Nautico Recife has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +30.2%, 10/10) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"Vila Nova \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": null,
"closing_odds": null,
"closing_reason": "Expected before kickoff",
"closing_status": "waiting",
"closing_status_label": "Waiting",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": null,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "market_monitoring",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Market monitoring",
"entry_implied_pct": 35.71,
"entry_odds": 2.8,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pending",
"model_validation_status": "pending",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "pending"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "pending"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 10,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +30.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 30.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +28.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 28.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 9,
"bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +25.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 25.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +21.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 21.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +20.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 20.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +20.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 20.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +16.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 16.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +16.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 16.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +15.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.5
}
],
"books_total": 10,
"breadth_display": "10/10",
"clv_label": "Waiting for Close",
"clv_status": "waiting",
"current_odds": 2.8,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +30.2%",
"move_pct_abs": 30.2,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 84h 28m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"10/10 books lengthened Nautico Recife together (30.2% drift, score 74) \u2014 broad market fade, not a single-book blip.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 30.2,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.80",
"2.47",
"2.15"
],
"display": "2.84 \u2192 2.15 \u2192 2.80",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 84h 28m",
"pick_team": "Nautico Recife",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.84"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.15"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.80"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.15,
2.8
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.15"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.15"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.80"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.80"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.15,
"page_alert_line": "Market drift alert: Nautico Recife odds \u2191 +30.2% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Nautico Recife",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Market drift alert: Nautico Recife odds \u2191 +30.2% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc9",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.8,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +30.2%",
"open_odds": 2.15,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Nautico Recife",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "strong_drift",
"signal_label": "Strong drift",
"steam_score": 74,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "10/10",
"current_odds": 2.8,
"move_display": "\u2191 +30.2%",
"open_odds": 2.15,
"pick_team": "Nautico Recife",
"steam_score": 74,
"steam_team_name": "Nautico Recife",
"steam_tier": "A"
},
"premium_teaser": {},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "vila-nova",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Vila Nova",
"away_team_id": 142,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/142.webp",
"away_team_name": "Vila Nova",
"away_team_public_id": "3GqFSytKY8QAdc",
"away_team_slug": "vila-nova",
"country_code": "BR",
"country_display_name": "Brazil",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/br.svg",
"country_id": 24,
"country_name": "Brazil",
"fixture_id": 1520926,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Brazil",
"home_team_display_name": "Nautico Recife",
"home_team_id": 755,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/755.webp",
"home_team_name": "Nautico Recife",
"home_team_public_id": "2ROWV7Y70GWcVz",
"home_team_slug": "nautico-recife",
"ht.home_team_slug": "nautico-recife",
"league_country": "Brazil",
"league_country_display": "Brazil",
"league_display_name": "Serie B Brazil",
"league_id": 72,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/72.webp",
"league_name": "Serie B Brazil",
"league_public_id": "2LSvtRZWAbkOzE",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-10-11 20:30:00",
"public_id": "3w2y7iR176B09J",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Recife",
"venue_name": "Estadio dos Aflitos"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_draw_above_30"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4066,
"best_odd": 2.64,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0261,
"ev": -0.0013,
"implied_prob": 0.3522,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3522,
"draw": 0.299,
"home": 0.3489
},
"model_prob": 0.4165,
"p_final": 0.3783
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2922,
"best_odd": 3.11,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0051,
"ev": -0.0545,
"implied_prob": 0.299,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3522,
"draw": 0.299,
"home": 0.3489
},
"model_prob": 0.3163,
"p_final": 0.304
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3949,
"best_odd": 2.665,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0322,
"ev": -0.1562,
"implied_prob": 0.3489,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3522,
"draw": 0.299,
"home": 0.3489
},
"model_prob": 0.2672,
"p_final": 0.3166
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.69,
"edge": 0.0447,
"ev": 0.1203,
"implied_prob": 0.3717,
"model_prob": 0.4165
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.25,
"edge": 0.0086,
"ev": 0.028,
"implied_prob": 0.3077,
"model_prob": 0.3163
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.84,
"edge": -0.0849,
"ev": -0.241,
"implied_prob": 0.3521,
"model_prob": 0.2672
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.4881,
"alpha_yes": 0.5369,
"best_no_odd": 1.95,
"best_yes_odd": 1.87,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0464,
"edge_yes": -0.0464,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0374,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0348,
"ev_yes": -0.1248,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1234,
"implied_no": 0.4856,
"implied_yes": 0.5144,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.4881,
"best_odd": 1.9,
"edge": 0.0229,
"ev": -0.0348,
"implied_prob": 0.4851,
"model_prob": 0.532,
"p_final": 0.508
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.5369,
"best_odd": 1.79,
"edge": -0.0252,
"ev": -0.1234,
"implied_prob": 0.5149,
"model_prob": 0.468,
"p_final": 0.4897
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.508,
"p_final_yes": 0.4897,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.5063,
"alpha_under": 0.5569,
"best_over_odd": 2.2,
"best_under_odd": 1.72,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.1,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.7,
"edge_over": -0.0532,
"edge_under": 0.0532,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1354,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1183,
"ev_under": 0.044,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0091,
"implied_over": 0.4462,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4474,
"implied_under": 0.5538,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5526,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.5063,
"best_odd": 2.1,
"edge": -0.0275,
"ev": -0.1183,
"implied_prob": 0.4474,
"model_prob": 0.393,
"p_final": 0.4198
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.5569,
"best_odd": 1.7,
"edge": 0.0303,
"ev": -0.0091,
"implied_prob": 0.5526,
"model_prob": 0.607,
"p_final": 0.5829
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4198,
"p_final_under": 0.5829,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.26,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.044,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1203,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.044,
"confidence": 4.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_draw_above_30",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value"
],
"score": 5.7,
"score_v1_legacy": 4.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 5.7,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value"
],
"score": 5.7,
"score_pre_penalty": 5.7
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "C",
"stake_factor": 0.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "lean",
"final_decision": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Vila Nova)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.044,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1203,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.7,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 73,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Vila Nova at 41.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 35.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Vila Nova as the value side (41.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.4,
"gates_failed": [
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Vila Nova",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Vila Nova \u00b7 decimal odds ~4.19 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +12% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1520926 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22484.19 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +4.4% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +4.4% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +4.4% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +4.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "70 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "73 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+4.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Vila Nova).",
"Decision strength: 5.7/10",
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"Outlier price +12% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 70,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0013,
"consensus_ev_display": "-0.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.64,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3522,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4165,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3787878787878788,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0996,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+10.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -5.2,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.3
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.468,
"draw_prob": 0.3163,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4165,
"over_prob": 0.393,
"total_xg": 2.26,
"under_prob": 0.607,
"xg_diff": 0.3
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.044,
"hero_display_only": true,
"implied_prob": 0.5538,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.607,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "hero_display",
"side": "under",
"slot": "hero_display"
},
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.64,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0261,
"ev": -0.0013,
"implied_prob": 0.3522,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4165,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Vila Nova"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.4881,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.9,
"edge": 0.0229,
"market_prob": 0.4851,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.532,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.4881,
"best_odd": 1.9,
"edge": 0.0229,
"ev": -0.0348,
"implied_prob": 0.4851,
"model_prob": 0.532,
"p_final": 0.508
},
"p_final": 0.508,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0348,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.5369,
"best_odd": 1.79,
"edge": -0.0252,
"ev": -0.1234,
"implied_prob": 0.5149,
"model_prob": 0.468,
"p_final": 0.4897
}
},
"edge": 0.0464,
"ev": 0.0374,
"implied_prob": 0.4856,
"model_prob": 0.532,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.5569,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.7,
"edge": 0.0303,
"market_prob": 0.5526,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.607,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.5063,
"best_odd": 2.1,
"edge": -0.0275,
"ev": -0.1183,
"implied_prob": 0.4474,
"model_prob": 0.393,
"p_final": 0.4198
},
"p_final": 0.5829,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0091,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.5569,
"best_odd": 1.7,
"edge": 0.0303,
"ev": -0.0091,
"implied_prob": 0.5526,
"model_prob": 0.607,
"p_final": 0.5829
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0532,
"ev": 0.044,
"implied_prob": 0.5538,
"model_prob": 0.607,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1520926,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": false,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"max_valid_ev": 0.044,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.4165,
"draw": 0.3163,
"home": 0.2672
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Vila Nova",
"home": "Nautico Recife"
},
"top_pick": null,
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0013,
"consensus_ev_display": "-0.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.64,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3522,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4165,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3787878787878788,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0996,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+10.0%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1520926,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-10-11T19:52:52.518567+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
Dapatkan Ramalan Premium untuk Nautico Recife & Vila Nova!
Buka analisis mendalam, tip pertaruhan eksklusif, dan ramalan perlawanan dengan perkhidmatan langganan premium kami.
Langgan Sekarang
Serie B Brazil — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vila Nova | 33 | 18 | 7 | 8 | 61 |
| 2 | Novorizontino | 33 | 17 | 9 | 7 | 60 |
| 3 | Juventude | 33 | 17 | 9 | 7 | 60 |
| 4 | Fortaleza EC | 33 | 15 | 12 | 6 | 57 |
| 5 | Criciuma | 33 | 16 | 8 | 9 | 56 |
| 6 | Atletico Goianiense | 33 | 14 | 11 | 8 | 53 |
| 7 | CRB | 33 | 15 | 7 | 11 | 52 |
| 8 | Sport Recife | 33 | 13 | 12 | 8 | 51 |
| 9 | Goias | 33 | 14 | 6 | 13 | 48 |
| 10 | Operario-PR | 33 | 13 | 9 | 11 | 48 |
| 11 | Cuiaba | 33 | 11 | 14 | 8 | 47 |
| 12 | São Bernardo | 33 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 46 |
| 13 | Nautico Recife | 33 | 11 | 9 | 13 | 42 |
| 14 | Ceara | 33 | 11 | 9 | 13 | 42 |
| 15 | Athletic Club | 32 | 10 | 12 | 10 | 42 |
| 16 | Botafogo SP | 33 | 11 | 8 | 14 | 41 |
| 17 | Avai | 33 | 10 | 6 | 17 | 36 |
| 18 | Londrina | 32 | 7 | 7 | 18 | 28 |
| 19 | América Mineiro | 33 | 4 | 5 | 24 | 17 |
| 20 | Ponte Preta | 33 | 3 | 4 | 26 | 13 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Novorizontino | 33 | 59 | 28 | +31 | 60 |
| 2 | CRB | 33 | 51 | 47 | +4 | 52 |
| 3 | Vila Nova | 33 | 46 | 31 | +15 | 61 |
| 4 | São Bernardo | 33 | 46 | 36 | +10 | 46 |
| 5 | Sport Recife | 33 | 45 | 35 | +10 | 51 |
| 6 | Operario-PR | 33 | 44 | 45 | -1 | 48 |
| 7 | Atletico Goianiense | 33 | 41 | 31 | +10 | 53 |
| 8 | Londrina | 32 | 40 | 47 | -7 | 28 |
| 9 | Juventude | 33 | 39 | 21 | +18 | 60 |
| 10 | Fortaleza EC | 33 | 39 | 29 | +10 | 57 |
| 11 | Nautico Recife | 33 | 39 | 42 | -3 | 42 |
| 12 | Athletic Club | 32 | 38 | 37 | +1 | 42 |
| 13 | Botafogo SP | 33 | 37 | 38 | -1 | 41 |
| 14 | Ceara | 33 | 35 | 40 | -5 | 42 |
| 15 | Criciuma | 33 | 34 | 28 | +6 | 56 |
| 16 | Goias | 33 | 34 | 40 | -6 | 48 |
| 17 | Avai | 33 | 33 | 43 | -10 | 36 |
| 18 | Cuiaba | 33 | 32 | 26 | +6 | 47 |
| 19 | América Mineiro | 33 | 21 | 54 | -33 | 17 |
| 20 | Ponte Preta | 33 | 18 | 73 | -55 | 13 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | xG | xGC | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Novorizontino | 33 | 19.0 | 10.4 | +8.6 | 60 |
| 2 | Cuiaba | 33 | 14.1 | 7.2 | +6.9 | 47 |
| 3 | Fortaleza EC | 33 | 16.8 | 10.1 | +6.7 | 57 |
| 4 | Atletico Goianiense | 33 | 16.8 | 12.9 | +3.9 | 53 |
| 5 | Juventude | 33 | 12.8 | 9.3 | +3.5 | 60 |
| 6 | Vila Nova | 33 | 13.9 | 10.7 | +3.2 | 61 |
| 7 | Criciuma | 33 | 11.5 | 8.3 | +3.2 | 56 |
| 8 | CRB | 33 | 18.6 | 15.8 | +2.8 | 52 |
| 9 | Londrina | 32 | 12.6 | 11.0 | +1.6 | 28 |
| 10 | Avai | 33 | 12.0 | 10.4 | +1.6 | 36 |
| 11 | Sport Recife | 33 | 15.5 | 14.2 | +1.3 | 51 |
| 12 | Botafogo SP | 33 | 14.6 | 14.3 | +0.3 | 41 |
| 13 | Nautico Recife | 33 | 15.9 | 16.6 | -0.7 | 42 |
| 14 | São Bernardo | 33 | 13.9 | 15.2 | -1.3 | 46 |
| 15 | Goias | 33 | 12.8 | 14.8 | -2.0 | 48 |
| 16 | Operario-PR | 33 | 14.5 | 17.2 | -2.7 | 48 |
| 17 | Ceara | 33 | 9.6 | 15.1 | -5.5 | 42 |
| 18 | América Mineiro | 33 | 11.9 | 18.4 | -6.5 | 17 |
| 19 | Athletic Club | 32 | 13.3 | 21.4 | -8.1 | 42 |
| 20 | Ponte Preta | 33 | 9.9 | 26.5 | -16.6 | 13 |
