Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Tidak ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Criciuma Ceara ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 0-1, 1-1, 0-2, 0-0, 1-2 1-0 ✖ tak betul
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.85
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Ceara win · Ceara 1–0 Criciuma
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "0a1b59501dd33b33d01adcaaef8ba8b4f8ce984811cb742570156c90d9aedbc7",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.44,
"away_win_prob": 0.468,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.516,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.484,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2995,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.14,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.34,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 4.3,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 0.95,
"home_win_prob": 0.2324,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.428,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under_25_prob": 0.572
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : Ceara or draw",
"main_pick_display": "Winner : Criciuma",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Ceara"
},
"away_xg": 1.44,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Criciuma",
"confidence": 46.8,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "Winner : Criciuma",
"edge": 0.1429,
"edge_gap": 0.168,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.3247,
"model_prob": 0.4676,
"pick_type": "winner",
"probabilities": {
"away": 46.8,
"draw": 30.0,
"home": 23.3
},
"reason": "",
"selection": "away",
"selection_name": "Criciuma"
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.94
},
{
"affi_link": "https://reffpa.com/L?tag=d_4682699m_1260c_\u0026site=4682699\u0026ad=1260",
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"odd": 2.92
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"odd": 2.9
},
{
"affi_link": "https://banners.dfbanners.com/redirect.aspx?pid=79572\u0026bid=19634\u0026redirectURL=http://www.dafabet.com/",
"bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
"odd": 2.9
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"odd": 2.89
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"odd": 2.82
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"odd": 2.8
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"odd": 2.8
}
],
"risk_color": "#f44336",
"risk_key": "high_risk",
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.94,
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Criciuma Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 3.08,
"market_odds": 2.85,
"model_odds": 2.14,
"overround": 8.1,
"prob_edge": 12.7,
"value_pct": 37.4,
"value_rating": "strong_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 13,
"away_failed_to_score": 8,
"away_played": 30,
"away_score_rate": 76.3,
"home_clean_sheet": 5,
"home_failed_to_score": 10,
"home_played": 30,
"home_score_rate": 61.3,
"no_prob": 51.6,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 51.6,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 48.4
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.44,
"home_expected": 0.95,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 13.2
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-2",
"prob": 9.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 9.2
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 9.0
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Ceara or Draw",
"prob": 53.1
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Ceara or Criciuma",
"prob": 70.0
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Criciuma",
"prob": 76.7
}
],
"pick_key": "X2",
"pick_label": "Draw or Criciuma",
"pick_prob": 76.7
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 46.8,
"draw_pct": 29.9,
"home_pct": 23.2,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Criciuma"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.39,
"away_avg_scored": 1.0,
"confidence": "medium",
"home_avg_scored": 1.1,
"over_prob": 42.8,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 57.2,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.39,
"under_prob": 57.2
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 37.6,
"implied_prob": 34.0,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Criciuma Win",
"model_prob": 46.8,
"odds": 2.94
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"has_data": false
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": 0.7,
"ev": 0.056,
"has_edge": true,
"label": "0-1",
"market_odds": 8.0,
"market_prob": 0.125,
"market_prob_pct": 12.5,
"model_prob": 0.132,
"model_prob_pct": 13.2,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"status_key": "positive_edge"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 13.2
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 13.2
},
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "0-2",
"prob": 9.5
},
{
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 9.2
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 9.0
}
]
},
"home_xg": 0.95,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 2.855,
"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": 0.0725,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 7.2,
"text": "+7.2%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3253,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0725,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 7.2,
"text": "+7.2%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4676,
"raw_edge_display": "+14.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.2,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.335,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+33.5%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Criciuma",
"sort_key": 10215.25,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.4135,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.23,
"edge": 0.0042,
"edge_pp": 0.4,
"market_prob": 0.4178,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.428,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.4135,
"best_odd": 2.23,
"edge": 0.0042,
"ev": -0.059,
"implied_prob": 0.4178,
"model_prob": 0.428,
"p_final": 0.422
},
"p_final": 0.422,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.0,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0456,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.059,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.5686,
"best_odd": 1.6,
"edge": -0.0058,
"ev": -0.0777,
"implied_prob": 0.5822,
"model_prob": 0.572,
"p_final": 0.5764
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0229,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 2.3,
"text": "+2.3%"
},
"ev_under": -0.0562,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -5.6,
"text": "-5.6%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0229,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over_prob": 42.8,
"sort_key": 5218.32,
"tier": "lean",
"under_prob": 57.2,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.5225,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.8,
"edge": 0.0016,
"edge_pp": 0.2,
"market_prob": 0.5129,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.516,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.5225,
"best_odd": 1.8,
"edge": 0.0016,
"ev": -0.0739,
"implied_prob": 0.5129,
"model_prob": 0.516,
"p_final": 0.5145
},
"p_final": 0.5145,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"raw_edge_pp": 0.3,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0712,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0739,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.5225,
"best_odd": 1.895,
"edge": -0.0016,
"ev": -0.08,
"implied_prob": 0.4871,
"model_prob": 0.484,
"p_final": 0.4855
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0351,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -3.5,
"text": "-3.5%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.0756,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -7.6,
"text": "-7.6%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": -0.0351,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no_prob": 51.6,
"sort_key": 1791.225,
"tier": "bad_ev",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 48.4
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 819.6,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "0-1",
"top_prob": 13.2
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "9/10",
"alert_breadth_note": "9/10 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +13.3%",
"alert_team": "Ceara",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 0.0,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": null,
"hero_label": "",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"market_team": "Criciuma",
"model_prob_pct": 46.8,
"model_team": "Criciuma",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 44,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 14.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Criciuma)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 14.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Criciuma)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0725,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3749,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.5,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 72,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Criciuma at 46.8%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 32.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Criciuma as the value side (46.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 14.2,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Criciuma",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Criciuma \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.94 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +37% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1520912 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.94 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +7.2% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +7.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +7.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "69 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "72 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+7.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Criciuma).",
"Decision strength: 7.0/10",
"Outlier price +37% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 69,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0725,
"consensus_ev_display": "+7.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.855,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3253,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4676,
"raw_edge_display": "+14.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3502626970227671,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.335,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+33.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 6.7,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.49"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.49
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "9/10",
"breadth_ratio": 0.9,
"evidence": {
"score": 78,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation pending",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pending",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 25.0,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 9.0,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 8.0
},
"score": 69,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 0.0,
"market_agreement": "unknown",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.44,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 7.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 0.95,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.44,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 0.95 \u00b7 Away xG 1.44 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +7%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pending",
"odds_delta_pct": 13.3,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +13.3%",
"steam_team": "Ceara",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 72,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 29,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 46,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 29,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Criciuma).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 14.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Criciuma)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 14.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Criciuma)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0725,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3749,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.5,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 72,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Criciuma at 46.8%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 32.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Criciuma as the value side (46.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 14.2,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Criciuma",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Criciuma \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.94 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +37% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1520912 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.94 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +7.2% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +7.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +7.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "69 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "72 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+7.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Criciuma).",
"Decision strength: 7.0/10",
"Outlier price +37% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 69,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0725,
"consensus_ev_display": "+7.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.855,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3253,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4676,
"raw_edge_display": "+14.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3502626970227671,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.335,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+33.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 6.7,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.49"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.49
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Ceara 0.95 xG vs Criciuma 1.44 \u2192 Criciuma 46.8%",
"Market Drift: Ceara odds \u2191 +13.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Criciuma projects stronger on expected goals (+0.49 xG edge).",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 23.24,
"label": "Ceara",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 29.95,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 46.8,
"label": "Criciuma",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.12,
"fair_prob": 42.8,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 41.68,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.12,
"fair_prob": 57.2,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 58.32,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.6,
"fair_prob": 48.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 49.0,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.6,
"fair_prob": 51.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 51.0,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations.",
"comparison_available": false,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "unknown",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "",
"edge_label_key": "",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
"favourite_label": "Criciuma",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "medium",
"headline": "Slight edge match",
"market_agreement_label": "\u2014",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 32.5,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+14.3 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 14.3,
"model_prob_pct": 46.8,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+14.3 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 14.3,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 69,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "Criciuma \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "slight_edge",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pending",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 72,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 29,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 46,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 29,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Ceara 0.95 xG vs Criciuma 1.44 \u2192 Criciuma 46.8%",
"Market Drift: Ceara odds \u2191 +13.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Criciuma projects stronger on expected goals (+0.49 xG edge).",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "A lead outcome exists, but the match is not one-sided in the model.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Medium",
"has_market_probs": false,
"hero_edge_pp": null,
"hero_label": "",
"hero_side": null,
"market_activity": "Ceara odds lengthened \u2191 +13.3%.",
"market_agreement": "unknown",
"market_agreement_label": "\u2014",
"market_interpretation": {},
"market_narrative": {},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pending",
"status": "pending"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pending",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 16.8 pp (at 46.8%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 16.8,
"max_prob_pct": 46.8,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "",
"largest_gap_pp": null,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": null,
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob_pct": 23.24,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Ceara",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "",
"signal_label": ""
},
{
"difference_pp": null,
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.95,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "",
"signal_label": ""
},
{
"difference_pp": null,
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob_pct": 46.8,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Criciuma",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "",
"signal_label": ""
}
],
"status": "unknown",
"status_label": "\u2014",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical model leans Criciuma (46.8%).",
"Ceara odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +13.3%, 9/10) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"Criciuma \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": null,
"closing_odds": null,
"closing_reason": "Expected before kickoff",
"closing_status": "waiting",
"closing_status_label": "Waiting",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": null,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "market_monitoring",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Market monitoring",
"entry_implied_pct": 39.22,
"entry_odds": 2.55,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pending",
"model_validation_status": "pending",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "pending"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "pending"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 9,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +13.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 13.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +11.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 9,
"bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.9
}
],
"books_total": 10,
"breadth_display": "9/10",
"clv_label": "Waiting for Close",
"clv_status": "waiting",
"current_odds": 2.55,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +13.3%",
"move_pct_abs": 13.3,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 127h 48m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on Ceara (13.3%, 9/10) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 13.3,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.55",
"2.40",
"2.25"
],
"display": "2.61 \u2192 2.20 \u2192 2.55",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 127h 48m",
"pick_team": "Ceara",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.61"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.20"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.55"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.25,
2.55
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.25"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.25"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.55"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.55"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.25,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 9/10 sportsbooks on Ceara",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Ceara",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.55,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +13.3%",
"open_odds": 2.25,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Ceara",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 44,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "9/10",
"current_odds": 2.55,
"move_display": "\u2191 +13.3%",
"open_odds": 2.25,
"pick_team": "Ceara",
"steam_score": 44,
"steam_team_name": "Ceara",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "criciuma",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Criciuma",
"away_team_id": 140,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/140.webp",
"away_team_name": "Criciuma",
"away_team_public_id": "2p24MEiNxfwdhD",
"away_team_slug": "criciuma",
"country_code": "BR",
"country_display_name": "Brazil",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/br.svg",
"country_id": 24,
"country_name": "Brazil",
"fixture_id": 1520912,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Brazil",
"home_team_display_name": "Ceara",
"home_team_id": 129,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/129.webp",
"home_team_name": "Ceara",
"home_team_public_id": "30p3lEHqSHZvUH",
"home_team_slug": "ceara",
"ht.home_team_slug": "ceara",
"league_country": "Brazil",
"league_country_display": "Brazil",
"league_display_name": "Serie B Brazil",
"league_id": 72,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/72.webp",
"league_name": "Serie B Brazil",
"league_public_id": "2LSvtRZWAbkOzE",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-10-08 22:30:00",
"public_id": "1AxhGYTX2vOCNI",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Fortaleza",
"venue_name": "Estadio Castel\u00e3o"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_xg_borderline"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Total xG in borderline band (high variance) (\u22121.5)"
],
"score": 5.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.3539,
"best_odd": 2.855,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0504,
"ev": 0.0725,
"implied_prob": 0.3253,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3253,
"draw": 0.2957,
"home": 0.379
},
"model_prob": 0.4676,
"p_final": 0.3756
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2982,
"best_odd": 3.14,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0012,
"ev": -0.0678,
"implied_prob": 0.2957,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3253,
"draw": 0.2957,
"home": 0.379
},
"model_prob": 0.2996,
"p_final": 0.2969
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3513,
"best_odd": 2.45,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0514,
"ev": -0.1973,
"implied_prob": 0.379,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3253,
"draw": 0.2957,
"home": 0.379
},
"model_prob": 0.2327,
"p_final": 0.3276
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.94,
"edge": 0.1275,
"ev": 0.3749,
"implied_prob": 0.3401,
"model_prob": 0.4676
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.25,
"edge": -0.0081,
"ev": -0.0262,
"implied_prob": 0.3077,
"model_prob": 0.2996
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.61,
"edge": -0.1504,
"ev": -0.3926,
"implied_prob": 0.3831,
"model_prob": 0.2327
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.5225,
"alpha_yes": 0.5225,
"best_no_odd": 1.87,
"best_yes_odd": 1.91,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.006,
"edge_yes": -0.006,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0351,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0739,
"ev_yes": -0.0756,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.08,
"implied_no": 0.51,
"implied_yes": 0.49,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.5225,
"best_odd": 1.8,
"edge": 0.0016,
"ev": -0.0739,
"implied_prob": 0.5129,
"model_prob": 0.516,
"p_final": 0.5145
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.5225,
"best_odd": 1.895,
"edge": -0.0016,
"ev": -0.08,
"implied_prob": 0.4871,
"model_prob": 0.484,
"p_final": 0.4855
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.5145,
"p_final_yes": 0.4855,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.4135,
"alpha_under": 0.5686,
"best_over_odd": 2.39,
"best_under_odd": 1.65,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.23,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.6,
"edge_over": 0.0112,
"edge_under": -0.0112,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0229,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.059,
"ev_under": -0.0562,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0777,
"implied_over": 0.4168,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4178,
"implied_under": 0.5832,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5822,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.4135,
"best_odd": 2.23,
"edge": 0.0042,
"ev": -0.059,
"implied_prob": 0.4178,
"model_prob": 0.428,
"p_final": 0.422
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.5686,
"best_odd": 1.6,
"edge": -0.0058,
"ev": -0.0777,
"implied_prob": 0.5822,
"model_prob": 0.572,
"p_final": 0.5764
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.422,
"p_final_under": 0.5764,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.39,
"variance_flag": true
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0725,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3749,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0725,
"confidence": 5.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 7.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.5,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 7.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.5
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "B",
"stake_factor": 0.5
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 14.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Criciuma)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0725,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3749,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.5,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 72,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Criciuma at 46.8%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 32.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Criciuma as the value side (46.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 14.2,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Criciuma",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Criciuma \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.94 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +37% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1520912 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.94 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +7.2% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +7.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +7.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "69 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "72 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+7.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Criciuma).",
"Decision strength: 7.0/10",
"Outlier price +37% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 69,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0725,
"consensus_ev_display": "+7.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.855,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3253,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4676,
"raw_edge_display": "+14.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3502626970227671,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.335,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+33.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 6.7,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.49"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.49
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.484,
"draw_prob": 0.2996,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4676,
"over_prob": 0.428,
"total_xg": 2.39,
"under_prob": 0.572,
"xg_diff": 0.49
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.855,
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0504,
"ev": 0.0725,
"implied_prob": 0.3253,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4676,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Criciuma"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.5225,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.8,
"edge": 0.0016,
"market_prob": 0.5129,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.516,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.5225,
"best_odd": 1.8,
"edge": 0.0016,
"ev": -0.0739,
"implied_prob": 0.5129,
"model_prob": 0.516,
"p_final": 0.5145
},
"p_final": 0.5145,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0739,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.5225,
"best_odd": 1.895,
"edge": -0.0016,
"ev": -0.08,
"implied_prob": 0.4871,
"model_prob": 0.484,
"p_final": 0.4855
}
},
"edge": 0.006,
"ev": -0.0351,
"implied_prob": 0.51,
"model_prob": 0.516,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.4135,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.23,
"edge": 0.0042,
"market_prob": 0.4178,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.428,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.4135,
"best_odd": 2.23,
"edge": 0.0042,
"ev": -0.059,
"implied_prob": 0.4178,
"model_prob": 0.428,
"p_final": 0.422
},
"p_final": 0.422,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.059,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.5686,
"best_odd": 1.6,
"edge": -0.0058,
"ev": -0.0777,
"implied_prob": 0.5822,
"model_prob": 0.572,
"p_final": 0.5764
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0112,
"ev": 0.0229,
"implied_prob": 0.4168,
"model_prob": 0.428,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1520912,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0725,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.4676,
"draw": 0.2996,
"home": 0.2327
},
"reason_codes": [
"variance_medium"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Criciuma",
"home": "Ceara"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.037291,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0725,
"implied_prob": 0.3253,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.4676,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Criciuma",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0725,
"consensus_ev_display": "+7.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.855,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3253,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4676,
"raw_edge_display": "+14.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3502626970227671,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.335,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+33.5%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1520912,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-10-08T19:20:55.065644+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
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Langgan Sekarang
Serie B Brazil — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Juventude | 32 | 17 | 8 | 7 | 59 |
| 2 | Vila Nova | 32 | 17 | 7 | 8 | 58 |
| 3 | Fortaleza EC | 32 | 15 | 11 | 6 | 56 |
| 4 | Novorizontino | 31 | 15 | 9 | 7 | 54 |
| 5 | Criciuma | 31 | 15 | 8 | 8 | 53 |
| 6 | Atletico Goianiense | 32 | 14 | 10 | 8 | 52 |
| 7 | CRB | 32 | 15 | 6 | 11 | 51 |
| 8 | Sport Recife | 32 | 13 | 11 | 8 | 50 |
| 9 | Operario-PR | 32 | 13 | 9 | 10 | 48 |
| 10 | Cuiaba | 32 | 11 | 14 | 7 | 47 |
| 11 | Goias | 32 | 13 | 6 | 13 | 45 |
| 12 | São Bernardo | 32 | 12 | 9 | 11 | 45 |
| 13 | Nautico Recife | 31 | 11 | 9 | 11 | 42 |
| 14 | Athletic Club | 32 | 10 | 12 | 10 | 42 |
| 15 | Ceara | 31 | 10 | 9 | 12 | 39 |
| 16 | Botafogo SP | 32 | 10 | 8 | 14 | 38 |
| 17 | Avai | 32 | 9 | 6 | 17 | 33 |
| 18 | Londrina | 32 | 7 | 7 | 18 | 28 |
| 19 | América Mineiro | 32 | 4 | 5 | 23 | 17 |
| 20 | Ponte Preta | 32 | 3 | 4 | 25 | 13 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Novorizontino | 31 | 52 | 27 | +25 | 54 |
| 2 | CRB | 32 | 49 | 45 | +4 | 51 |
| 3 | Vila Nova | 32 | 44 | 31 | +13 | 58 |
| 4 | Sport Recife | 32 | 44 | 34 | +10 | 50 |
| 5 | São Bernardo | 32 | 44 | 34 | +10 | 45 |
| 6 | Operario-PR | 32 | 44 | 43 | +1 | 48 |
| 7 | Atletico Goianiense | 32 | 40 | 30 | +10 | 52 |
| 8 | Londrina | 32 | 40 | 47 | -7 | 28 |
| 9 | Nautico Recife | 31 | 39 | 38 | +1 | 42 |
| 10 | Athletic Club | 32 | 38 | 37 | +1 | 42 |
| 11 | Juventude | 32 | 37 | 19 | +18 | 59 |
| 12 | Fortaleza EC | 32 | 37 | 27 | +10 | 56 |
| 13 | Botafogo SP | 32 | 36 | 38 | -2 | 38 |
| 14 | Ceara | 31 | 34 | 39 | -5 | 39 |
| 15 | Criciuma | 31 | 33 | 27 | +6 | 53 |
| 16 | Cuiaba | 32 | 32 | 25 | +7 | 47 |
| 17 | Goias | 32 | 32 | 40 | -8 | 45 |
| 18 | Avai | 32 | 32 | 43 | -11 | 33 |
| 19 | América Mineiro | 32 | 21 | 53 | -32 | 17 |
| 20 | Ponte Preta | 32 | 17 | 68 | -51 | 13 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | xG | xGC | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Novorizontino | 31 | 17.2 | 9.2 | +8.0 | 54 |
| 2 | Fortaleza EC | 32 | 16.8 | 10.1 | +6.7 | 56 |
| 3 | Cuiaba | 32 | 12.3 | 7.0 | +5.3 | 47 |
| 4 | Atletico Goianiense | 32 | 15.2 | 11.1 | +4.1 | 52 |
| 5 | Avai | 32 | 11.9 | 8.5 | +3.4 | 33 |
| 6 | Vila Nova | 32 | 13.3 | 10.1 | +3.2 | 58 |
| 7 | CRB | 32 | 18.6 | 15.8 | +2.8 | 51 |
| 8 | Juventude | 32 | 10.2 | 8.0 | +2.2 | 59 |
| 9 | Criciuma | 31 | 10.0 | 8.1 | +1.9 | 53 |
| 10 | Sport Recife | 32 | 13.7 | 12.6 | +1.1 | 50 |
| 11 | Londrina | 32 | 10.4 | 9.6 | +0.8 | 28 |
| 12 | São Bernardo | 32 | 12.6 | 12.6 | 0.0 | 45 |
| 13 | Botafogo SP | 32 | 13.7 | 13.8 | -0.1 | 38 |
| 14 | Nautico Recife | 31 | 15.3 | 16.1 | -0.8 | 42 |
| 15 | Goias | 32 | 11.8 | 13.1 | -1.3 | 45 |
| 16 | Operario-PR | 32 | 12.8 | 16.2 | -3.4 | 48 |
| 17 | Ceara | 31 | 9.1 | 14.2 | -5.1 | 39 |
| 18 | América Mineiro | 32 | 11.7 | 16.9 | -5.2 | 17 |
| 19 | Athletic Club | 32 | 11.9 | 19.2 | -7.3 | 42 |
| 20 | Ponte Preta | 32 | 8.7 | 24.8 | -16.1 | 13 |
