Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 matlamat) ✔ Betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Tidak ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Vila Nova Vila Nova ✔ Betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 0-1, 0-0, 1-1, 1-0, 0-2 0-1 ✔ Betul
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Vila Nova win · Botafogo SP 0–1 Vila Nova
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "4d20eccba98638a5c9e631a4203da688fbf034e24bfc8b163153d6ca08121b3d",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.11,
"away_win_prob": 0.417,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.623,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.377,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.3476,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.4,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 2.88,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 4.25,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 0.77,
"home_win_prob": 0.2354,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.291,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under_25_prob": 0.709
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Vila Nova",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Vila Nova"
},
"away_xg": 1.11,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Vila Nova",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.1113,
"edge_gap": 0.0695,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.3057,
"model_prob": 0.417,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 41.7,
"draw": 34.8,
"home": 23.5
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 3.15
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 3.15,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Vila Nova Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 3.27,
"market_odds": 3.15,
"model_odds": 2.4,
"overround": 3.9,
"prob_edge": 9.9,
"value_pct": 31.2,
"value_rating": "strong_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 11,
"away_failed_to_score": 8,
"away_played": 30,
"away_score_rate": 67.0,
"home_clean_sheet": 5,
"home_failed_to_score": 10,
"home_played": 29,
"home_score_rate": 53.7,
"no_prob": 62.3,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 62.3,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 37.7
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.11,
"home_expected": 0.77,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 16.9
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 15.3
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 13.0
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 11.7
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-2",
"prob": 9.4
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Botafogo SP or Draw",
"prob": 58.3
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Botafogo SP or Vila Nova",
"prob": 65.2
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Vila Nova",
"prob": 76.5
}
],
"pick_key": "X2",
"pick_label": "Draw or Vila Nova",
"pick_prob": 76.5
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 41.7,
"draw_pct": 34.8,
"home_pct": 23.5,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Vila Nova"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 1.88,
"away_avg_scored": 1.4,
"confidence": "high",
"home_avg_scored": 1.1,
"over_prob": 29.1,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 70.9,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 1.88,
"under_prob": 70.9
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 31.4,
"implied_prob": 31.7,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Vila Nova Win",
"model_prob": 41.7,
"odds": 3.15
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Vila Nova",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 30.57,
"draw": 31.67,
"home": 37.76
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-10-03 21:29:19",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-10-03 20:59:43",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Botafogo SP",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 37.76,
"gap_pp": -14.21,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 23.55
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 31.67,
"gap_pp": 3.08,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 34.75
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 30.57,
"gap_pp": 11.13,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 41.7
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 37.23,
"gap_pp": -8.13,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 29.1
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 62.77,
"gap_pp": 8.13,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 70.9
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.55,
"early": 2.55,
"implied_closing_pct": 37.76,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 37.76,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.04,
"early": 3.04,
"implied_closing_pct": 31.67,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 31.67,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 3.15,
"early": 3.15,
"implied_closing_pct": 30.57,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 30.57,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 2.58,
"early": 2.58,
"implied_closing_pct": 37.23,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 37.23,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.53,
"early": 1.53,
"implied_closing_pct": 62.77,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 62.77,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 11.1,
"kind": "1x2_a"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": {
"best_bookmaker": "1xBet",
"best_odds": 8.5,
"edge": 5.2,
"ev": 44.0,
"label": "0-1",
"probability": 16.9
},
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": 5.1,
"ev": 0.4365,
"has_edge": true,
"label": "0-1",
"market_odds": 8.5,
"market_prob": 0.1176,
"market_prob_pct": 11.8,
"model_prob": 0.169,
"model_prob_pct": 16.9,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"status_key": "positive_edge"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 16.9
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 16.9
},
{
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 15.3
},
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 13.0
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 11.7
},
{
"label": "0-2",
"prob": 9.4
}
]
},
"home_xg": 0.77,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.4999,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.505,
"edge": 0.0448,
"edge_pp": 4.5,
"market_prob": 0.6195,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.709,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.3636,
"best_odd": 2.45,
"edge": -0.0326,
"ev": -0.1475,
"implied_prob": 0.3805,
"model_prob": 0.291,
"p_final": 0.348
},
"p_final": 0.6642,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.9,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.067,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0003,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.4999,
"best_odd": 1.505,
"edge": 0.0448,
"ev": -0.0003,
"implied_prob": 0.6195,
"model_prob": 0.709,
"p_final": 0.6642
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2492,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -24.9,
"text": "-24.9%"
},
"ev_under": 0.1131,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 11.3,
"text": "+11.3%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.1131,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over_prob": 29.1,
"sort_key": 10251.79,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 70.9,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.5105,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.69,
"edge": 0.0395,
"edge_pp": 4.0,
"market_prob": 0.5457,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.623,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.5105,
"best_odd": 1.69,
"edge": 0.0395,
"ev": -0.0111,
"implied_prob": 0.5457,
"model_prob": 0.623,
"p_final": 0.5852
},
"p_final": 0.5852,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.7,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0529,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0111,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.4641,
"best_odd": 2.03,
"edge": -0.0359,
"ev": -0.1506,
"implied_prob": 0.4543,
"model_prob": 0.377,
"p_final": 0.4184
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0902,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 9.0,
"text": "+9.0%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.2083,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -20.8,
"text": "-20.8%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0902,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no_prob": 62.3,
"sort_key": 10081.18,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 37.7
},
{
"authority_action": "lean",
"authority_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"consensus_odds": 3.15,
"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": 0.0505,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 5.1,
"text": "+5.1%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3057,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0505,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 5.1,
"text": "+5.1%"
},
"model_prob": 0.417,
"raw_edge_display": "+11.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 11.1,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3135,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+31.4%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Vila Nova",
"sort_key": 10045.45,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 830.7,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "0-1",
"top_prob": 16.9
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "2/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "2/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -3.1%",
"alert_team": "Vila Nova",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 14.2,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -14.22,
"hero_label": "Botafogo SP",
"market_prob_pct": 30.6,
"market_team": "Botafogo SP",
"model_prob_pct": 41.7,
"model_team": "Vila Nova",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 14,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 14.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Vila Nova)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 14.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Vila Nova)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1131,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3136,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.2,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.2,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 46,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Vila Nova at 41.7%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 30.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Vila Nova as the value side (41.7%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 11.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Vila Nova",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Vila Nova \u00b7 decimal odds ~1.85 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +31% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1520903 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22481.85 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +11.3% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +11.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +11.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.2/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +11.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.2/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "58 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "46 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+11.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Vila Nova).",
"Decision strength: 6.2/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +31% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 58,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0505,
"consensus_ev_display": "+5.1%",
"consensus_odds": 3.15,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3057,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.417,
"raw_edge_display": "+11.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 11.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.31746031746031744,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3135,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+31.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -17.8,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.34
}
}
},
"bet_status": "lean",
"books_breadth_display": "2/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.2222222222222222,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (14 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 17.9,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 2.2,
"steam_coherence": 7.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 58,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 14.22,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 14.22,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.11,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -18.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 0.77,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.11,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 0.77 \u00b7 Away xG 1.11 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -18%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.1,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -3.1%",
"steam_team": "Vila Nova",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 46,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 44,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 41,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 44,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 14.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Vila Nova)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 14.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Vila Nova)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1131,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3136,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.2,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.2,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 46,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Vila Nova at 41.7%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 30.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Vila Nova as the value side (41.7%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 11.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Vila Nova",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Vila Nova \u00b7 decimal odds ~1.85 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +31% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1520903 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22481.85 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +11.3% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +11.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +11.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.2/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +11.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.2/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "58 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "46 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+11.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Vila Nova).",
"Decision strength: 6.2/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +31% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 58,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0505,
"consensus_ev_display": "+5.1%",
"consensus_odds": 3.15,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3057,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.417,
"raw_edge_display": "+11.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 11.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.31746031746031744,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3135,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+31.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -17.8,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.34
}
}
},
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Botafogo SP 0.77 xG vs Vila Nova 1.11 \u2192 Vila Nova 41.7%",
"Market: Botafogo SP ~30.6% implied",
"Market Steam: Vila Nova \u2193 -3.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Vila Nova with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -14.22,
"fair_prob": 23.54,
"label": "Botafogo SP",
"market_prob": 37.76,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.09,
"fair_prob": 34.76,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 31.67,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 11.13,
"fair_prob": 41.7,
"label": "Vila Nova",
"market_prob": 30.57,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.0,
"fair_prob": 29.1,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 38.1,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.0,
"fair_prob": 70.9,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 61.9,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.71,
"fair_prob": 37.7,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 45.41,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.71,
"fair_prob": 62.3,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 54.59,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -14.22,
"fair_prob_pct": 23.54,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Botafogo SP",
"market_prob_pct": 37.76,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Vila Nova"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Botafogo SP\u0027s win probability at 37.8%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 23.5%, a difference of 14.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 14.22,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Vila Nova",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 30.6,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+11.1 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 11.1,
"model_prob_pct": 41.7,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+11.1 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 11.1,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 58,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "Vila Nova \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 46,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 44,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 41,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 44,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Botafogo SP 0.77 xG vs Vila Nova 1.11 \u2192 Vila Nova 41.7%",
"Market: Botafogo SP ~30.6% implied",
"Market Steam: Vila Nova \u2193 -3.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Vila Nova with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -14.22,
"hero_label": "Botafogo SP",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Vila Nova odds shortened \u2193 -3.1%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Vila Nova, with odds shortening by 3.1%. Confirmation remains limited (2/9 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Botafogo SP than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Botafogo SP than the current fair estimate.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Vila Nova, with odds shortening by 3.1%. Confirmation remains limited (2/9 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Botafogo SP more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Vila Nova has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 3.1%.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (2/9), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 14.22,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 6.9 pp (at 41.7%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 6.9,
"max_prob_pct": 41.7,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Botafogo SP",
"largest_gap_pp": -14.2,
"lead": "The closing market prices Botafogo SP higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 14.2,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -14.22,
"edge_pp": -14.22,
"fair_prob_pct": 23.54,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Botafogo SP",
"market_prob_pct": 37.76,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.09,
"edge_pp": 3.09,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.76,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 31.67,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 11.13,
"edge_pp": 11.13,
"fair_prob_pct": 41.7,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Vila Nova",
"market_prob_pct": 30.57,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Botafogo SP (30.6%).",
"Vila Nova has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2193 -3.1%, 2/9).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Vila Nova, Market \u2192 Botafogo SP, Recent sharp money \u2192 Vila Nova.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 39.22,
"closing_odds": 2.55,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 39.22,
"entry_odds": 2.55,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 2,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -3.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -3.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.1
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "2/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.1,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Sharpest sharp-led move",
"move_display": "\u2193 -3.1%",
"move_pct_abs": 3.1,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 61h 51m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Volatile two-way pricing on Vila Nova (swing 3.20 \u2192 2.81 \u2192 3.10) \u2014 net 3.1% but intraday chop is elevated.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.1,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.20",
"3.15",
"3.10"
],
"display": "3.20 \u2192 2.81 \u2192 3.10",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 61h 51m",
"pick_team": "Vila Nova",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.20"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.81"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.10"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.2,
3.15,
3.1
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,9.0 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.20"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.10"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.20"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.10"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.2,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "Vila Nova",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.1,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -3.1%",
"open_odds": 3.2,
"summary": "Sharp money supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Vila Nova",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 14,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "2/9",
"current_odds": 3.1,
"move_display": "\u2193 -3.1%",
"open_odds": 3.2,
"pick_team": "Vila Nova",
"steam_score": 14,
"steam_team_name": "Vila Nova",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 14.2,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "vila-nova",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Vila Nova",
"away_team_id": 142,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/142.webp",
"away_team_name": "Vila Nova",
"away_team_public_id": "3GqFSytKY8QAdc",
"away_team_slug": "vila-nova",
"country_code": "BR",
"country_display_name": "Brazil",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/br.svg",
"country_id": 24,
"country_name": "Brazil",
"fixture_id": 1520903,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Brazil",
"home_team_display_name": "Botafogo SP",
"home_team_id": 2618,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/2618.webp",
"home_team_name": "Botafogo SP",
"home_team_public_id": "0AQ3worrpuA921",
"home_team_slug": "botafogo-sp",
"ht.home_team_slug": "botafogo-sp",
"league_country": "Brazil",
"league_country_display": "Brazil",
"league_display_name": "Serie B Brazil",
"league_id": 72,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/72.webp",
"league_name": "Serie B Brazil",
"league_public_id": "2LSvtRZWAbkOzE",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-10-03 21:30:00",
"public_id": "2Zs6ijieOXs5HI",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Ribeirao Preto",
"venue_name": "Estadio Santa Cruz"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_draw_above_30"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 5.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2499,
"best_odd": 3.15,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0278,
"ev": 0.0505,
"implied_prob": 0.3057,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3057,
"draw": 0.3167,
"home": 0.3776
},
"model_prob": 0.417,
"p_final": 0.3335
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2862,
"best_odd": 3.04,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0088,
"ev": -0.0104,
"implied_prob": 0.3167,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3057,
"draw": 0.3167,
"home": 0.3776
},
"model_prob": 0.3475,
"p_final": 0.3255
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3541,
"best_odd": 2.55,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0503,
"ev": -0.1654,
"implied_prob": 0.3776,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3057,
"draw": 0.3167,
"home": 0.3776
},
"model_prob": 0.2355,
"p_final": 0.3273
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.15,
"edge": 0.0995,
"ev": 0.3136,
"implied_prob": 0.3175,
"model_prob": 0.417
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.04,
"edge": 0.0186,
"ev": 0.0564,
"implied_prob": 0.3289,
"model_prob": 0.3475
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.55,
"edge": -0.1567,
"ev": -0.3995,
"implied_prob": 0.3922,
"model_prob": 0.2355
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.5105,
"alpha_yes": 0.4641,
"best_no_odd": 1.75,
"best_yes_odd": 2.1,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0771,
"edge_yes": -0.0771,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0902,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0111,
"ev_yes": -0.2083,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1506,
"implied_no": 0.5459,
"implied_yes": 0.4541,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.5105,
"best_odd": 1.69,
"edge": 0.0395,
"ev": -0.0111,
"implied_prob": 0.5457,
"model_prob": 0.623,
"p_final": 0.5852
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.4641,
"best_odd": 2.03,
"edge": -0.0359,
"ev": -0.1506,
"implied_prob": 0.4543,
"model_prob": 0.377,
"p_final": 0.4184
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.5852,
"p_final_yes": 0.4184,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.3636,
"alpha_under": 0.4999,
"best_over_odd": 2.58,
"best_under_odd": 1.57,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.45,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.505,
"edge_over": -0.09,
"edge_under": 0.09,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2492,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1475,
"ev_under": 0.1131,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0003,
"implied_over": 0.381,
"implied_over_mf": 0.3805,
"implied_under": 0.619,
"implied_under_mf": 0.6195,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.3636,
"best_odd": 2.45,
"edge": -0.0326,
"ev": -0.1475,
"implied_prob": 0.3805,
"model_prob": 0.291,
"p_final": 0.348
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.4999,
"best_odd": 1.505,
"edge": 0.0448,
"ev": -0.0003,
"implied_prob": 0.6195,
"model_prob": 0.709,
"p_final": 0.6642
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.348,
"p_final_under": 0.6642,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 1.88,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1131,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3136,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1131,
"confidence": 6.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_draw_above_30",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 6.2,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.2,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 6.2,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.2
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "lean",
"final_decision": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 14.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Vila Nova)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1131,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3136,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.2,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.2,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 46,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Vila Nova at 41.7%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 30.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Vila Nova as the value side (41.7%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 11.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Vila Nova",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Vila Nova \u00b7 decimal odds ~1.85 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +31% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1520903 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22481.85 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +11.3% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +11.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +11.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.2/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +11.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.2/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "58 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "46 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+11.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Vila Nova).",
"Decision strength: 6.2/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +31% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 58,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0505,
"consensus_ev_display": "+5.1%",
"consensus_odds": 3.15,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3057,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.417,
"raw_edge_display": "+11.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 11.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.31746031746031744,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3135,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+31.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -17.8,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.34
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u6781\u7aef\u9632\u5b88\uff08\u4f4e\u8fdb\u7403\uff09",
"scoring_type": "defensive",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.377,
"draw_prob": 0.3475,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.417,
"over_prob": 0.291,
"total_xg": 1.88,
"under_prob": 0.709,
"xg_diff": 0.34
},
"type": "defensive",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 3.15,
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0278,
"ev": 0.0505,
"implied_prob": 0.3057,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.417,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Vila Nova"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.5105,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.69,
"edge": 0.0395,
"market_prob": 0.5457,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.623,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.5105,
"best_odd": 1.69,
"edge": 0.0395,
"ev": -0.0111,
"implied_prob": 0.5457,
"model_prob": 0.623,
"p_final": 0.5852
},
"p_final": 0.5852,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0111,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.4641,
"best_odd": 2.03,
"edge": -0.0359,
"ev": -0.1506,
"implied_prob": 0.4543,
"model_prob": 0.377,
"p_final": 0.4184
}
},
"edge": 0.0771,
"ev": 0.0902,
"implied_prob": 0.5459,
"model_prob": 0.623,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.4999,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.505,
"edge": 0.0448,
"market_prob": 0.6195,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.709,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.3636,
"best_odd": 2.45,
"edge": -0.0326,
"ev": -0.1475,
"implied_prob": 0.3805,
"model_prob": 0.291,
"p_final": 0.348
},
"p_final": 0.6642,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0003,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.4999,
"best_odd": 1.505,
"edge": 0.0448,
"ev": -0.0003,
"implied_prob": 0.6195,
"model_prob": 0.709,
"p_final": 0.6642
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.09,
"ev": 0.1131,
"implied_prob": 0.619,
"model_prob": 0.709,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1520903,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1131,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.417,
"draw": 0.3475,
"home": 0.2355
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Vila Nova",
"home": "Botafogo SP"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.104244,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1131,
"implied_prob": 0.619,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.709,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0505,
"consensus_ev_display": "+5.1%",
"consensus_odds": 3.15,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3057,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.417,
"raw_edge_display": "+11.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 11.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.31746031746031744,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3135,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+31.4%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1520903,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-10-03T21:29:20.714944+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
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Langgan Sekarang
Serie B Brazil — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Juventude | 32 | 17 | 8 | 7 | 59 |
| 2 | Vila Nova | 32 | 17 | 7 | 8 | 58 |
| 3 | Novorizontino | 32 | 16 | 9 | 7 | 57 |
| 4 | Fortaleza EC | 32 | 15 | 11 | 6 | 56 |
| 5 | Criciuma | 32 | 15 | 8 | 9 | 53 |
| 6 | Atletico Goianiense | 32 | 14 | 10 | 8 | 52 |
| 7 | CRB | 32 | 15 | 6 | 11 | 51 |
| 8 | Sport Recife | 32 | 13 | 11 | 8 | 50 |
| 9 | Operario-PR | 32 | 13 | 9 | 10 | 48 |
| 10 | Cuiaba | 32 | 11 | 14 | 7 | 47 |
| 11 | Goias | 32 | 13 | 6 | 13 | 45 |
| 12 | São Bernardo | 32 | 12 | 9 | 11 | 45 |
| 13 | Nautico Recife | 32 | 11 | 9 | 12 | 42 |
| 14 | Ceara | 32 | 11 | 9 | 12 | 42 |
| 15 | Athletic Club | 32 | 10 | 12 | 10 | 42 |
| 16 | Botafogo SP | 32 | 10 | 8 | 14 | 38 |
| 17 | Avai | 32 | 9 | 6 | 17 | 33 |
| 18 | Londrina | 32 | 7 | 7 | 18 | 28 |
| 19 | América Mineiro | 32 | 4 | 5 | 23 | 17 |
| 20 | Ponte Preta | 32 | 3 | 4 | 25 | 13 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Novorizontino | 32 | 54 | 27 | +27 | 57 |
| 2 | CRB | 32 | 49 | 45 | +4 | 51 |
| 3 | Vila Nova | 32 | 44 | 31 | +13 | 58 |
| 4 | Sport Recife | 32 | 44 | 34 | +10 | 50 |
| 5 | São Bernardo | 32 | 44 | 34 | +10 | 45 |
| 6 | Operario-PR | 32 | 44 | 43 | +1 | 48 |
| 7 | Atletico Goianiense | 32 | 40 | 30 | +10 | 52 |
| 8 | Londrina | 32 | 40 | 47 | -7 | 28 |
| 9 | Nautico Recife | 32 | 39 | 40 | -1 | 42 |
| 10 | Athletic Club | 32 | 38 | 37 | +1 | 42 |
| 11 | Juventude | 32 | 37 | 19 | +18 | 59 |
| 12 | Fortaleza EC | 32 | 37 | 27 | +10 | 56 |
| 13 | Botafogo SP | 32 | 36 | 38 | -2 | 38 |
| 14 | Ceara | 32 | 35 | 39 | -4 | 42 |
| 15 | Criciuma | 32 | 33 | 28 | +5 | 53 |
| 16 | Cuiaba | 32 | 32 | 25 | +7 | 47 |
| 17 | Goias | 32 | 32 | 40 | -8 | 45 |
| 18 | Avai | 32 | 32 | 43 | -11 | 33 |
| 19 | América Mineiro | 32 | 21 | 53 | -32 | 17 |
| 20 | Ponte Preta | 32 | 17 | 68 | -51 | 13 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | xG | xGC | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Novorizontino | 32 | 17.2 | 9.2 | +8.0 | 57 |
| 2 | Fortaleza EC | 32 | 16.8 | 10.1 | +6.7 | 56 |
| 3 | Cuiaba | 32 | 12.3 | 7.0 | +5.3 | 47 |
| 4 | Atletico Goianiense | 32 | 15.2 | 11.1 | +4.1 | 52 |
| 5 | Avai | 32 | 11.9 | 8.5 | +3.4 | 33 |
| 6 | Vila Nova | 32 | 13.3 | 10.1 | +3.2 | 58 |
| 7 | CRB | 32 | 18.6 | 15.8 | +2.8 | 51 |
| 8 | Juventude | 32 | 10.2 | 8.0 | +2.2 | 59 |
| 9 | Criciuma | 32 | 10.0 | 8.1 | +1.9 | 53 |
| 10 | Sport Recife | 32 | 13.7 | 12.6 | +1.1 | 50 |
| 11 | Londrina | 32 | 10.4 | 9.6 | +0.8 | 28 |
| 12 | São Bernardo | 32 | 12.6 | 12.6 | 0.0 | 45 |
| 13 | Botafogo SP | 32 | 13.7 | 13.8 | -0.1 | 38 |
| 14 | Nautico Recife | 32 | 15.3 | 16.1 | -0.8 | 42 |
| 15 | Goias | 32 | 11.8 | 13.1 | -1.3 | 45 |
| 16 | Operario-PR | 32 | 12.8 | 16.2 | -3.4 | 48 |
| 17 | Ceara | 32 | 9.1 | 14.2 | -5.1 | 42 |
| 18 | América Mineiro | 32 | 11.7 | 16.9 | -5.2 | 17 |
| 19 | Athletic Club | 32 | 11.9 | 19.2 | -7.3 | 42 |
| 20 | Ponte Preta | 32 | 8.7 | 24.8 | -16.1 | 13 |
