Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 matlamat) ✔ Betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Fortaleza EC Fortaleza EC ✔ Betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 0-0 1-2 ✔ Betul
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.65
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Fortaleza EC win · Londrina 1–2 Fortaleza EC
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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"facts": {
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"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.478,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.522,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
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"fair_odds_away": 2.41,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.34,
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"fair_odds_home": 3.49,
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"home_predicted_xg": 1.12,
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"over_25_prob": 0.459,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under_25_prob": 0.541
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Double chance : draw or Fortaleza EC and -3.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Fortaleza EC"
},
"away_xg": 1.39,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Fortaleza EC",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.0508,
"edge_gap": 0.1154,
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"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
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},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
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"value_rating": "small_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
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"away_failed_to_score": 8,
"away_played": 28,
"away_score_rate": 75.1,
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"home_played": 27,
"home_score_rate": 67.4,
"no_prob": 47.8,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 52.2,
"source": "xG_dc",
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"yes_prob": 52.2
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.39,
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"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
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{
"away": 1,
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"label": "0-1",
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{
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{
"away": 2,
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"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.8
},
{
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"prob": 8.1
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
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},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Londrina or Fortaleza EC",
"prob": 70.0
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Fortaleza EC",
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}
],
"pick_key": "X2",
"pick_label": "Draw or Fortaleza EC",
"pick_prob": 71.3
},
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"draw_pct": 29.9,
"home_pct": 28.6,
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"lean_label": "Fortaleza EC"
},
"over_under": {
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"avg_total": 2.51,
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"confidence": "low",
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"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 54.1,
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"total_expected": 2.51,
"under_prob": 54.1
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"prob_source": "poisson",
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"edge": 10.0,
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"label": "Away",
"market": "Fortaleza EC Win",
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"odds": 2.65
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
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"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 36.37,
"draw": 31.6,
"home": 32.02
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-20 21:29:11",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-20 21:01:03",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Londrina",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
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"model_pct": 28.63
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{
"closing_implied_pct": 31.6,
"gap_pp": -1.69,
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"model_pct": 29.91
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 36.37,
"gap_pp": 5.08,
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"model_pct": 41.46
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 39.8,
"gap_pp": 6.1,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 45.9
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 60.2,
"gap_pp": -6.1,
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}
],
"movement": [
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},
{
"closing": 3.05,
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{
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{
"closing": 2.42,
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{
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}
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},
"correct_score_insight": {
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"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
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"model_prob": 0.127,
"model_prob_pct": 12.7,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"status_key": "no_value"
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"most_likely": {
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},
"top5": [
{
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},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 11.3
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.1
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.8
},
{
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 8.1
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.12,
"homepage_pick": null,
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{
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"alpha": 0.3828,
"available": true,
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"edge": 0.0226,
"edge_pp": 2.3,
"market_prob": 0.4,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
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"alpha": 0.3828,
"best_odd": 2.34,
"edge": 0.0226,
"ev": -0.0111,
"implied_prob": 0.4,
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"prediction_confidence": "high",
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"alpha": 0.5264,
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"edge": -0.0311,
"ev": -0.1124,
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"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.1108,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 11.1,
"text": "+11.1%"
},
"ev_under": -0.1344,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -13.4,
"text": "-13.4%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
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"over_prob": 45.9,
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"tier": "best",
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{
"decision": "value_bet",
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"available": true,
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"edge": 0.0229,
"edge_pp": 2.3,
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"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.522,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.5368,
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"edge": -0.0252,
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},
"p_final": 0.498,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
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"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
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"edge": 0.0229,
"ev": -0.0315,
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}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1396,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -14.0,
"text": "-14.0%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.044,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 4.4,
"text": "+4.4%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
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"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no_prob": 47.8,
"sort_key": 10039.6,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 52.2
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from Fortaleza EC, but the model still strongly favours Fortaleza EC.",
"consensus_odds": 2.65,
"decision": "small_edge",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": 0.0199,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 2.0,
"text": "+2.0%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3637,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0199,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 2.0,
"text": "+2.0%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4146,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.1,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0987,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+9.9%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Fortaleza EC",
"sort_key": 5215.92,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 818.1,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.7
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "9/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "9/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +10.1%",
"alert_team": "Fortaleza EC",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 5.1,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 5.07,
"hero_label": "Fortaleza EC",
"market_prob_pct": 36.4,
"market_team": "Fortaleza EC",
"model_prob_pct": 41.4,
"model_team": "Fortaleza EC",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 45,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.1,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Fortaleza EC, but the model still strongly favours Fortaleza EC."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.1,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Fortaleza EC, but the model still strongly favours Fortaleza EC."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1108,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1108,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Fortaleza EC at 41.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 36.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Fortaleza EC as the value side (41.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Fortaleza EC, but the model still strongly favours Fortaleza EC.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Fortaleza EC",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +11.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +11.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +11.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "79 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+11.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Fortaleza EC, but the model still strongly favours Fortaleza EC.",
"Decision strength: 4.7/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 79,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Fortaleza EC, but the model still strongly favours Fortaleza EC.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0199,
"consensus_ev_display": "+2.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.65,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3637,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4146,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.37735849056603776,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0987,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+9.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.27
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "9/9",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 22.5,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 79,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 5.07,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 5.07,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.39,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.12,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.39,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.12 \u00b7 Away xG 1.39 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +3%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.1,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +10.1%",
"steam_team": "Fortaleza EC",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 25,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 41,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 25,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Fortaleza EC, but the model still strongly favours Fortaleza EC.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.1,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Fortaleza EC, but the model still strongly favours Fortaleza EC."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.1,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Fortaleza EC, but the model still strongly favours Fortaleza EC."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1108,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1108,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Fortaleza EC at 41.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 36.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Fortaleza EC as the value side (41.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Fortaleza EC, but the model still strongly favours Fortaleza EC.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Fortaleza EC",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +11.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +11.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +11.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "79 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+11.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Fortaleza EC, but the model still strongly favours Fortaleza EC.",
"Decision strength: 4.7/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 79,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Fortaleza EC, but the model still strongly favours Fortaleza EC.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0199,
"consensus_ev_display": "+2.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.65,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3637,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4146,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.37735849056603776,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0987,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+9.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.27
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Fortaleza EC, but the model still strongly favours Fortaleza EC.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Londrina 1.12 xG vs Fortaleza EC 1.39 \u2192 Fortaleza EC 41.4%",
"Market: Fortaleza EC ~36.4% implied",
"Market Drift: Fortaleza EC odds \u2191 +10.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Fortaleza EC, but the market has moved away from Fortaleza EC.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -3.39,
"fair_prob": 28.63,
"label": "Londrina",
"market_prob": 32.02,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.67,
"fair_prob": 29.93,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 31.6,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.07,
"fair_prob": 41.44,
"label": "Fortaleza EC",
"market_prob": 36.37,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.94,
"fair_prob": 45.9,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 39.96,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.94,
"fair_prob": 54.1,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 60.04,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.75,
"fair_prob": 52.2,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 47.45,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.75,
"fair_prob": 47.8,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 52.55,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 5.07,
"fair_prob_pct": 41.44,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Fortaleza EC",
"market_prob_pct": 36.37,
"status": "mild_value",
"steam_team_name": "Fortaleza EC"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Fortaleza EC\u0027s win probability at 41.4%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 36.4%, a difference of 5.1 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "mild_value",
"max_gap_pp": 5.07,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Fortaleza EC",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 36.4,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+5.0 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 5.0,
"model_prob_pct": 41.4,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+5.0 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 5.0,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 79,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Fortaleza EC, but the model still strongly favours Fortaleza EC. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 25,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 41,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 25,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Londrina 1.12 xG vs Fortaleza EC 1.39 \u2192 Fortaleza EC 41.4%",
"Market: Fortaleza EC ~36.4% implied",
"Market Drift: Fortaleza EC odds \u2191 +10.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Fortaleza EC, but the market has moved away from Fortaleza EC.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 5.07,
"hero_label": "Fortaleza EC",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Fortaleza EC odds lengthened \u2191 +10.1%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Fortaleza EC.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Fortaleza EC.",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Fortaleza EC.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Fortaleza EC."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Fortaleza EC.",
"Recent line movement on Fortaleza EC (\u2191 +10.1%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (9/9) supports the current market view on Fortaleza EC."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 5.07,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 11.5 pp (at 41.4%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 11.5,
"max_prob_pct": 41.4,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Fortaleza EC",
"largest_gap_pp": 5.1,
"lead": "The model rates Fortaleza EC considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 5.1,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -3.39,
"edge_pp": -3.39,
"fair_prob_pct": 28.63,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Londrina",
"market_prob_pct": 32.02,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -1.67,
"edge_pp": -1.67,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.93,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 31.6,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 5.07,
"edge_pp": 5.07,
"fair_prob_pct": 41.44,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Fortaleza EC",
"market_prob_pct": 36.37,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "mild_value",
"status_label": "Mild Value",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Fortaleza EC.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Fortaleza EC (36.4%).",
"Fortaleza EC odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +10.1%, 9/9) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Fortaleza EC, Market \u2192 Fortaleza EC, while Fortaleza EC odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 37.74,
"closing_odds": 2.65,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 37.74,
"entry_odds": 2.65,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 9,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.0
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "9/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.62,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +10.1%",
"move_pct_abs": 10.1,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 87h 2m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on Fortaleza EC (10.1%, 9/9) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.1,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.65",
"2.51",
"2.38"
],
"display": "2.65 \u2192 2.30 \u2192 2.62",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 87h 2m",
"pick_team": "Fortaleza EC",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.65"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.30"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.62"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.38,
2.65,
2.62
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,2.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.38"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.38"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.65"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.62"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.38,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 9/9 sportsbooks on Fortaleza EC",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Fortaleza EC",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.62,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +10.1%",
"open_odds": 2.38,
"summary": "Market moved away from Fortaleza EC while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Fortaleza EC",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 45,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "9/9",
"current_odds": 2.62,
"move_display": "\u2191 +10.1%",
"open_odds": 2.38,
"pick_team": "Fortaleza EC",
"steam_score": 45,
"steam_team_name": "Fortaleza EC",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 5.1,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "fortaleza-ec",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Fortaleza EC",
"away_team_id": 154,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/154.webp",
"away_team_name": "Fortaleza EC",
"away_team_public_id": "3KvkFHVvgDwS2g",
"away_team_slug": "fortaleza-ec",
"country_code": "BR",
"country_display_name": "Brazil",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/br.svg",
"country_id": 24,
"country_name": "Brazil",
"fixture_id": 1520885,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Brazil",
"home_team_display_name": "Londrina",
"home_team_id": 148,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/148.webp",
"home_team_name": "Londrina",
"home_team_public_id": "4DndKVE5Ys61Lp",
"home_team_slug": "londrina",
"ht.home_team_slug": "londrina",
"league_country": "Brazil",
"league_country_display": "Brazil",
"league_display_name": "Serie B Brazil",
"league_id": 72,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/72.webp",
"league_name": "Serie B Brazil",
"league_public_id": "2LSvtRZWAbkOzE",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-20 21:30:00",
"public_id": "4gW9dbjuDXciV3",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Londrina",
"venue_name": "Estadio Vitorino Goncalves Dias"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_xg_borderline"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Total xG in borderline band (high variance) (\u22121.5)"
],
"score": 5.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4157,
"best_odd": 2.65,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0211,
"ev": 0.0199,
"implied_prob": 0.3637,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3637,
"draw": 0.316,
"home": 0.3202
},
"model_prob": 0.4146,
"p_final": 0.3849
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2924,
"best_odd": 3.05,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0049,
"ev": -0.0512,
"implied_prob": 0.316,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3637,
"draw": 0.316,
"home": 0.3202
},
"model_prob": 0.2991,
"p_final": 0.3111
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2847,
"best_odd": 3.01,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0097,
"ev": -0.0652,
"implied_prob": 0.3202,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3637,
"draw": 0.316,
"home": 0.3202
},
"model_prob": 0.2863,
"p_final": 0.3106
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.65,
"edge": 0.0372,
"ev": 0.0986,
"implied_prob": 0.3774,
"model_prob": 0.4146
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.05,
"edge": -0.0287,
"ev": -0.0876,
"implied_prob": 0.3279,
"model_prob": 0.2991
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 3.01,
"edge": -0.0459,
"ev": -0.1383,
"implied_prob": 0.3322,
"model_prob": 0.2863
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.5368,
"alpha_yes": 0.488,
"best_no_odd": 1.8,
"best_yes_odd": 2.0,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0475,
"edge_yes": 0.0475,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1396,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1204,
"ev_yes": 0.044,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0315,
"implied_no": 0.5255,
"implied_yes": 0.4745,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.5368,
"best_odd": 1.76,
"edge": -0.0252,
"ev": -0.1204,
"implied_prob": 0.525,
"model_prob": 0.478,
"p_final": 0.4998
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.488,
"best_odd": 1.945,
"edge": 0.0229,
"ev": -0.0315,
"implied_prob": 0.475,
"model_prob": 0.522,
"p_final": 0.498
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.4998,
"p_final_yes": 0.498,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.3828,
"alpha_under": 0.5264,
"best_over_odd": 2.42,
"best_under_odd": 1.6,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.34,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.56,
"edge_over": 0.0594,
"edge_under": -0.0594,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.1108,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0111,
"ev_under": -0.1344,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1124,
"implied_over": 0.3996,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4,
"implied_under": 0.6004,
"implied_under_mf": 0.6,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.3828,
"best_odd": 2.34,
"edge": 0.0226,
"ev": -0.0111,
"implied_prob": 0.4,
"model_prob": 0.459,
"p_final": 0.4226
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.5264,
"best_odd": 1.56,
"edge": -0.0311,
"ev": -0.1124,
"implied_prob": 0.6,
"model_prob": 0.541,
"p_final": 0.5689
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4226,
"p_final_under": 0.5689,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.51,
"variance_flag": true
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1108,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1108,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1108,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 4.7,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.7,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 4.7,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.7
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.1,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Fortaleza EC, but the model still strongly favours Fortaleza EC."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1108,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1108,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Fortaleza EC at 41.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 36.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Fortaleza EC as the value side (41.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Fortaleza EC, but the model still strongly favours Fortaleza EC.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Fortaleza EC",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +11.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +11.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +11.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "79 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+11.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Fortaleza EC, but the model still strongly favours Fortaleza EC.",
"Decision strength: 4.7/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 79,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Fortaleza EC, but the model still strongly favours Fortaleza EC.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0199,
"consensus_ev_display": "+2.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.65,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3637,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4146,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.37735849056603776,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0987,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+9.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.27
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.522,
"draw_prob": 0.2991,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4146,
"over_prob": 0.459,
"total_xg": 2.51,
"under_prob": 0.541,
"xg_diff": 0.27
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.65,
"decision": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.0211,
"ev": 0.0199,
"implied_prob": 0.3637,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4146,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Fortaleza EC"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.488,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.945,
"edge": 0.0229,
"market_prob": 0.475,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.522,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.5368,
"best_odd": 1.76,
"edge": -0.0252,
"ev": -0.1204,
"implied_prob": 0.525,
"model_prob": 0.478,
"p_final": 0.4998
},
"p_final": 0.498,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0315,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.488,
"best_odd": 1.945,
"edge": 0.0229,
"ev": -0.0315,
"implied_prob": 0.475,
"model_prob": 0.522,
"p_final": 0.498
}
},
"edge": 0.0475,
"ev": 0.044,
"implied_prob": 0.4745,
"model_prob": 0.522,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.3828,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.34,
"edge": 0.0226,
"market_prob": 0.4,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.459,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.3828,
"best_odd": 2.34,
"edge": 0.0226,
"ev": -0.0111,
"implied_prob": 0.4,
"model_prob": 0.459,
"p_final": 0.4226
},
"p_final": 0.4226,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0111,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.5264,
"best_odd": 1.56,
"edge": -0.0311,
"ev": -0.1124,
"implied_prob": 0.6,
"model_prob": 0.541,
"p_final": 0.5689
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0594,
"ev": 0.1108,
"implied_prob": 0.3996,
"model_prob": 0.459,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1520885,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1108,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.4146,
"draw": 0.2991,
"home": 0.2863
},
"reason_codes": [
"variance_medium"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Fortaleza EC",
"home": "Londrina"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.031328,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1108,
"implied_prob": 0.3996,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.459,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0199,
"consensus_ev_display": "+2.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.65,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3637,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4146,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.37735849056603776,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0987,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+9.9%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1520885,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-20T21:29:12.789834+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
Dapatkan Ramalan Premium untuk Londrina & Fortaleza EC!
Buka analisis mendalam, tip pertaruhan eksklusif, dan ramalan perlawanan dengan perkhidmatan langganan premium kami.
Langgan Sekarang
Serie B Brazil — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vila Nova | 30 | 16 | 6 | 8 | 54 |
| 2 | Juventude | 30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 53 |
| 3 | Fortaleza EC | 30 | 14 | 10 | 6 | 52 |
| 4 | Novorizontino | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 51 |
| 5 | Criciuma | 30 | 14 | 8 | 8 | 50 |
| 6 | Atletico Goianiense | 30 | 13 | 10 | 7 | 49 |
| 7 | CRB | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | 48 |
| 8 | Operario-PR | 30 | 13 | 9 | 8 | 48 |
| 9 | Sport Recife | 30 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 44 |
| 10 | Cuiaba | 30 | 10 | 13 | 7 | 43 |
| 11 | Goias | 30 | 12 | 6 | 12 | 42 |
| 12 | São Bernardo | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 42 |
| 13 | Athletic Club | 30 | 10 | 12 | 8 | 42 |
| 14 | Nautico Recife | 30 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 41 |
| 15 | Ceara | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | 36 |
| 16 | Botafogo SP | 29 | 8 | 8 | 13 | 32 |
| 17 | Avai | 30 | 8 | 6 | 16 | 30 |
| 18 | Londrina | 30 | 7 | 7 | 16 | 28 |
| 19 | América Mineiro | 30 | 4 | 5 | 21 | 17 |
| 20 | Ponte Preta | 29 | 3 | 4 | 22 | 13 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Novorizontino | 30 | 49 | 27 | +22 | 51 |
| 2 | CRB | 30 | 45 | 41 | +4 | 48 |
| 3 | Vila Nova | 30 | 43 | 31 | +12 | 54 |
| 4 | Operario-PR | 30 | 43 | 38 | +5 | 48 |
| 5 | São Bernardo | 30 | 40 | 31 | +9 | 42 |
| 6 | Sport Recife | 30 | 40 | 32 | +8 | 44 |
| 7 | Londrina | 30 | 39 | 43 | -4 | 28 |
| 8 | Nautico Recife | 30 | 38 | 37 | +1 | 41 |
| 9 | Atletico Goianiense | 30 | 37 | 27 | +10 | 49 |
| 10 | Athletic Club | 30 | 36 | 33 | +3 | 42 |
| 11 | Fortaleza EC | 30 | 35 | 26 | +9 | 52 |
| 12 | Ceara | 30 | 33 | 39 | -6 | 36 |
| 13 | Juventude | 30 | 32 | 19 | +13 | 53 |
| 14 | Botafogo SP | 29 | 32 | 36 | -4 | 32 |
| 15 | Criciuma | 30 | 31 | 27 | +4 | 50 |
| 16 | Cuiaba | 30 | 30 | 25 | +5 | 43 |
| 17 | Goias | 30 | 30 | 36 | -6 | 42 |
| 18 | Avai | 30 | 30 | 41 | -11 | 30 |
| 19 | América Mineiro | 30 | 21 | 50 | -29 | 17 |
| 20 | Ponte Preta | 29 | 17 | 62 | -45 | 13 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | xG | xGC | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Novorizontino | 30 | 17.2 | 9.2 | +8.0 | 51 |
| 2 | Fortaleza EC | 30 | 16.8 | 10.1 | +6.7 | 52 |
| 3 | Cuiaba | 30 | 12.3 | 7.0 | +5.3 | 43 |
| 4 | Atletico Goianiense | 30 | 15.2 | 11.1 | +4.1 | 49 |
| 5 | Avai | 30 | 11.9 | 8.5 | +3.4 | 30 |
| 6 | Vila Nova | 30 | 13.3 | 10.1 | +3.2 | 54 |
| 7 | CRB | 30 | 18.6 | 15.8 | +2.8 | 48 |
| 8 | Juventude | 30 | 10.2 | 8.0 | +2.2 | 53 |
| 9 | Criciuma | 30 | 10.0 | 8.1 | +1.9 | 50 |
| 10 | Sport Recife | 30 | 13.7 | 12.6 | +1.1 | 44 |
| 11 | Londrina | 30 | 10.4 | 9.6 | +0.8 | 28 |
| 12 | São Bernardo | 30 | 12.6 | 12.6 | 0.0 | 42 |
| 13 | Botafogo SP | 29 | 13.7 | 13.8 | -0.1 | 32 |
| 14 | Nautico Recife | 30 | 15.3 | 16.1 | -0.8 | 41 |
| 15 | Goias | 30 | 11.8 | 13.1 | -1.3 | 42 |
| 16 | Operario-PR | 30 | 12.8 | 16.2 | -3.4 | 48 |
| 17 | Ceara | 30 | 9.1 | 14.2 | -5.1 | 36 |
| 18 | América Mineiro | 30 | 11.7 | 16.9 | -5.2 | 17 |
| 19 | Athletic Club | 30 | 11.9 | 19.2 | -7.3 | 42 |
| 20 | Ponte Preta | 29 | 8.7 | 24.8 | -16.1 | 13 |
