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Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Tidak ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Libertad Libertad ✔ Betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 2-1, 1-1, 3-1, 2-0, 2-2 1-0 ✖ tak betul
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.26
AI Fair Odds
1.77
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Libertad win · Libertad 1–0 Delfín SC
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Probability Calibration
- Expected: 56.6%
- Historical Bucket: 55–60% — Building sample
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "a54e1b95ca7f215056e899abb3bb51d58ce1907f92d47ee30fa387abf11a77e3",
"decision_algo_version": "2.3.1",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.41,
"away_win_prob": 0.217,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.309,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.691,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2166,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 4.61,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 4.62,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 1.77,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 2.31,
"home_win_prob": 0.5664,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.718,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"under_25_prob": 0.282
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Double chance : Libertad FC or draw and -3.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "Winner : Libertad FC",
"percent_away": "30%",
"percent_draw": "35%",
"percent_home": "35%",
"winner_name": "Libertad FC"
},
"away_xg": 1.41,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Libertad FC",
"confidence": 56.6,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "high",
"display_text": "Winner : Libertad FC",
"edge": 0.1445,
"edge_gap": 0.3486,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4214,
"model_prob": 0.5659,
"pick_type": "winner",
"probabilities": {
"away": 21.7,
"draw": 21.7,
"home": 56.6
},
"reason": "",
"selection": "home",
"selection_name": "Libertad FC"
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.26
}
],
"risk_color": "#f44336",
"risk_key": "high_risk",
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.26,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Libertad FC Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.37,
"market_odds": 2.26,
"model_odds": 1.77,
"overround": 5.0,
"prob_edge": 12.2,
"value_pct": 27.7,
"value_rating": "strong_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 7,
"away_failed_to_score": 9,
"away_played": 20,
"away_score_rate": 75.6,
"home_clean_sheet": 5,
"home_failed_to_score": 8,
"home_played": 20,
"home_score_rate": 90.1,
"no_prob": 30.9,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 69.1,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 69.1
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.41,
"home_expected": 2.31,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.1
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 7.9
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 3,
"label": "3-1",
"prob": 7.0
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 6.5
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-2",
"prob": 6.4
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Libertad FC or Draw",
"prob": 78.3
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Libertad FC or Delf\u00edn SC",
"prob": 78.3
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Delf\u00edn SC",
"prob": 43.4
}
],
"pick_key": "1X",
"pick_label": "Libertad FC or Draw",
"pick_prob": 78.3
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 21.7,
"draw_pct": 21.7,
"home_pct": 56.6,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Libertad FC"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "-3.5",
"avg_total": 3.72,
"away_avg_scored": 0.7,
"confidence": "high",
"home_avg_scored": 0.9,
"over_prob": 71.8,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 71.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"total_expected": 3.72,
"under_prob": 28.2
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 27.9,
"implied_prob": 44.2,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Libertad FC Win",
"model_prob": 56.6,
"odds": 2.26
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Delf\u00edn SC",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 25.46,
"draw": 32.39,
"home": 42.14
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-07-21 21:29:02",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-07-21 20:59:11",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Libertad FC FC",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 42.14,
"gap_pp": 14.45,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 56.59
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 32.39,
"gap_pp": -10.71,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 21.68
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 25.46,
"gap_pp": -3.74,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 21.73
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 39.25,
"gap_pp": 32.55,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 71.8
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 60.75,
"gap_pp": -32.55,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 28.2
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.26,
"early": 2.26,
"implied_closing_pct": 42.14,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 42.14,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 2.94,
"early": 2.94,
"implied_closing_pct": 32.39,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 32.39,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 3.74,
"early": 3.74,
"implied_closing_pct": 25.46,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 25.46,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 2.43,
"early": 2.43,
"implied_closing_pct": 39.25,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 39.25,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.57,
"early": 1.57,
"implied_closing_pct": 60.75,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 60.75,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 32.5,
"kind": "ou_o"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"most_likely": {
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.1
}
},
"home_xg": 2.31,
"homepage_pick": {
"best_bookmaker": "Unibet",
"best_odds": 2.35,
"confidence": "moderate",
"display_label": "Home Libertad FC FC",
"edge": 14.0,
"ev": 32.8,
"probability": 56.6
},
"market_cards": [
{
"authority_action": "lean",
"authority_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"consensus_odds": 2.26,
"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": 0.0675,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 6.8,
"text": "+6.8%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4214,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0675,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 6.8,
"text": "+6.8%"
},
"model_prob": 0.5659,
"raw_edge_display": "+14.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.4,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2789,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+27.9%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Libertad FC",
"sort_key": 10210.75,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"ev_available": false,
"ev_over": null,
"ev_over_display": null,
"ev_under": null,
"ev_under_display": null,
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": null,
"over_prob": 71.8,
"sort_key": 4050.0,
"tier": "lean",
"under_prob": 28.2,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"ev_available": false,
"ev_no": null,
"ev_no_display": null,
"ev_yes": null,
"ev_yes_display": null,
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": null,
"no_prob": 30.9,
"sort_key": 4050.0,
"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 69.1
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 807.3,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "2-1",
"top_prob": 9.1
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "13/13",
"alert_breadth_note": "13/13 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +4.8%",
"alert_team": "Delf\u00edn SC",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 14.5,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 14.5,
"hero_label": "Libertad FC FC",
"market_prob_pct": 42.1,
"market_team": "Libertad FC FC",
"model_prob_pct": 56.6,
"model_team": "Libertad FC FC",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 52,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 14.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Libertad FC FC)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 14.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Libertad FC FC)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0675,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.279,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.2,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.2,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 50,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"gap_pp": 14.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary"
],
"headline": "Selective Lean",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Libertad FC",
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Libertad FC \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.26 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +28% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1519419 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.26 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +6.8% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "xg_strength",
"label": "Extreme xG reduced Decision Strength (-2.0)",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.2/10 \u274c (need \u22657.0) \u00b7 Calibration Failed (extreme xG) \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.2/10 (gate \u22657.0) \u00b7 Calibration: Failed (extreme xG) \u2192 Primary blocked",
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Libertad FC FC).",
"Decision strength: 5.2/10",
"Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary",
"Outlier price +28% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 63,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2192 NOT Primary; at most discretionary selective (\u22640.25\u20130.5% bankroll, further cut under extreme-xG).",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Extreme xG deviation 71% vs league baseline"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean",
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0675,
"consensus_ev_display": "+6.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.26,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4214,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5659,
"raw_edge_display": "+14.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4424778761061947,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2789,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+27.9%"
},
"version": "v2.4",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "failed",
"deviation_pct": 71.1,
"reasons": [
"Extreme xG deviation 71% vs league baseline"
],
"recommended_action": "apply stronger regression",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null
}
},
"bet_status": "lean",
"evidence": {
"score": 86,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Statistical edge detected",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (14 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "High xG deviation from league baseline (71%+)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 17.8,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 63,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 14.5,
"max_gap_pp": 14.5,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.41,
"calibration_status": "failed",
"deviation_pct": 71.0,
"elevated": true,
"home_xg": 2.31,
"impact_note": "Extreme xG mainly inflates totals (O/U / BTTS) and can overstate 1X2 favourite edges. Primary is blocked on all markets; 1X2 Best +EV lean is still discretionary only \u2014 treat that EV as possibly inflated and size down sharply (e.g. \u226425\u201350% of a normal selective stake) or skip.",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 2.31,
"status_label": "High deviation from league baseline",
"summary": "Home xG 2.31 \u00b7 Away xG 1.41 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +71%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.8,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +4.8%",
"steam_team": "Delf\u00edn SC",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Execution Confidence",
"score": 50,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 28,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 56,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 28,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 14.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Libertad FC FC)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 14.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Libertad FC FC)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0675,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.279,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.2,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.2,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 50,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"gap_pp": 14.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary"
],
"headline": "Selective Lean",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Libertad FC",
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Libertad FC \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.26 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +28% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1519419 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.26 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +6.8% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "xg_strength",
"label": "Extreme xG reduced Decision Strength (-2.0)",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.2/10 \u274c (need \u22657.0) \u00b7 Calibration Failed (extreme xG) \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.2/10 (gate \u22657.0) \u00b7 Calibration: Failed (extreme xG) \u2192 Primary blocked",
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Libertad FC FC).",
"Decision strength: 5.2/10",
"Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary",
"Outlier price +28% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 63,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2192 NOT Primary; at most discretionary selective (\u22640.25\u20130.5% bankroll, further cut under extreme-xG).",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Extreme xG deviation 71% vs league baseline"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean",
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0675,
"consensus_ev_display": "+6.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.26,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4214,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5659,
"raw_edge_display": "+14.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4424778761061947,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2789,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+27.9%"
},
"version": "v2.4",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "failed",
"deviation_pct": 71.1,
"reasons": [
"Extreme xG deviation 71% vs league baseline"
],
"recommended_action": "apply stronger regression",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null
}
},
"headline": "Selective Lean",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Libertad FC FC 2.31 xG vs Delf\u00edn SC 1.41 \u2192 Libertad FC FC 56.6%",
"Market: Libertad FC FC ~42.1% implied",
"Market Drift: Delf\u00edn SC odds \u2191 +4.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Libertad FC FC projects stronger on expected goals (+0.90 xG edge).",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 14.5,
"fair_prob": 56.64,
"label": "Libertad FC FC",
"market_prob": 42.14,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -10.73,
"fair_prob": 21.66,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 32.39,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.76,
"fair_prob": 21.7,
"label": "Delf\u00edn SC",
"market_prob": 25.46,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 71.8,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 28.2,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 69.1,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 30.9,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 14.5,
"fair_prob_pct": 56.64,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Libertad FC FC",
"market_prob_pct": 42.14,
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"steam_team_name": "Delf\u00edn SC"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Libertad FC FC\u0027s win probability at 56.6%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 42.1%, a difference of 14.5 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
"max_gap_pp": 14.5,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
"favourite_label": "Libertad FC FC",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "high",
"headline": "Slight edge match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 42.1,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+14.5 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 14.5,
"model_prob_pct": 56.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "high",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+14.5 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 14.5,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 63,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "Libertad FC FC \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "slight_edge",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Execution Confidence",
"score": 50,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 28,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 56,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 28,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Libertad FC FC 2.31 xG vs Delf\u00edn SC 1.41 \u2192 Libertad FC FC 56.6%",
"Market: Libertad FC FC ~42.1% implied",
"Market Drift: Delf\u00edn SC odds \u2191 +4.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Libertad FC FC projects stronger on expected goals (+0.90 xG edge).",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "One outcome clearly leads the model 1X2 grid.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "High",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 14.5,
"hero_label": "Libertad FC FC",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Delf\u00edn SC odds lengthened \u2191 +4.8%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.",
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Delf\u00edn SC has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 4.8%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Libertad FC FC.",
"note": "Drift away from Delf\u00edn SC \u2014 odds lengthened by 4.8% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Libertad FC FC.",
"However, Delf\u00edn SC has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 4.8%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Delf\u00edn SC \u2014 odds lengthened by 4.8% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate favors Libertad FC FC more strongly than current market pricing.",
"At the same time, Delf\u00edn SC has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 4.8%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (13/13) supports the current market view on Delf\u00edn SC."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 14.5,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 34.9 pp (at 56.6%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 34.9,
"max_prob_pct": 56.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "High",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Libertad FC FC",
"largest_gap_pp": 14.5,
"lead": "The model rates Libertad FC FC considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 14.5,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 14.5,
"edge_pp": 14.5,
"fair_prob_pct": 56.64,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Libertad FC FC",
"market_prob_pct": 42.14,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
},
{
"difference_pp": -10.73,
"edge_pp": -10.73,
"fair_prob_pct": 21.66,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 32.39,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -3.76,
"edge_pp": -3.76,
"fair_prob_pct": 21.7,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Delf\u00edn SC",
"market_prob_pct": 25.46,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Delf\u00edn SC \u2014 odds lengthened by 4.8% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Libertad FC FC (42.1%).",
"However, Delf\u00edn SC has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +4.8%, 13/13) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"Libertad FC FC \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 44.25,
"closing_odds": 2.26,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 44.25,
"entry_odds": 2.26,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 13,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +17.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 17.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +17.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 17.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +13.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 13.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +12.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 12.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +12.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 12.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 34,
"bookmaker_name": "Superbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +11.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 1,
"bookmaker_name": "10Bet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +11.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 9,
"bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 16,
"bookmaker_name": "Unibet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.8
}
],
"books_total": 13,
"breadth_display": "13/13",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.25,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Highest consensus move",
"move_display": "\u2191 +4.8%",
"move_pct_abs": 4.8,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 43h 55m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Pinnacle led repricing on Delf\u00edn SC (4.8%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.8,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.74",
"3.42",
"3.10"
],
"display": "3.74 \u2192 2.80 \u2192 3.25",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 43h 55m",
"pick_team": "Delf\u00edn SC",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.74"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.80"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.25"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.1,
3.74,
3.25
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,13.8",
"sparkline_trend": "volatile",
"sparkline_trend_label": "V-shape swing",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.10"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.10"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.74"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.25"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.1,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 13/13 sportsbooks on Delf\u00edn SC",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Delf\u00edn SC",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.25,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +4.8%",
"open_odds": 3.1,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Delf\u00edn SC",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 52,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "13/13",
"current_odds": 3.25,
"move_display": "\u2191 +4.8%",
"open_odds": 3.1,
"pick_team": "Delf\u00edn SC",
"steam_score": 52,
"steam_team_name": "Delf\u00edn SC",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 14.5,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Delf\u00edn SC",
"away_team_id": 1149,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1149.webp",
"away_team_name": "Delf\u00edn SC",
"away_team_name_canonical": "Delf\u00edn SC",
"away_team_slug": "delfin-sc",
"country_code": "EC",
"country_display_name": "Ecuador",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ec.svg",
"country_id": 46,
"country_name": "Ecuador",
"fixture_id": 1519419,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Ecuador",
"home_team_display_name": "Libertad FC",
"home_team_id": 18762,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/18762.webp",
"home_team_name": "Libertad FC",
"home_team_name_canonical": "Libertad",
"home_team_slug": "libertad",
"league_country": "Ecuador",
"league_country_display": "Ecuador",
"league_display_name": "Ecuador Liga Pro Ecuador",
"league_id": 242,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/242.webp",
"league_name": "Ecuador Liga Pro Ecuador",
"league_name_canonical": "Liga Pro Ecuador",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-07-21 21:30:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Loja",
"venue_name": "Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 8.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2832,
"best_odd": 3.74,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0106,
"ev": -0.0872,
"implied_prob": 0.2546,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2546,
"draw": 0.3239,
"home": 0.4214
},
"model_prob": 0.2173,
"p_final": 0.2441
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.3777,
"best_odd": 2.94,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0405,
"ev": -0.1666,
"implied_prob": 0.3239,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2546,
"draw": 0.3239,
"home": 0.4214
},
"model_prob": 0.2168,
"p_final": 0.2835
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3525,
"best_odd": 2.26,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0509,
"ev": 0.0675,
"implied_prob": 0.4214,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2546,
"draw": 0.3239,
"home": 0.4214
},
"model_prob": 0.5659,
"p_final": 0.4723
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.74,
"edge": -0.0501,
"ev": -0.1874,
"implied_prob": 0.2674,
"model_prob": 0.2173
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.94,
"edge": -0.1233,
"ev": -0.3626,
"implied_prob": 0.3401,
"model_prob": 0.2168
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.26,
"edge": 0.1234,
"ev": 0.279,
"implied_prob": 0.4425,
"model_prob": 0.5659
}
},
"btts": {
"ev_available": false,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"ev_available": false,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"reliability": "low"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.72,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.3.1"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0675,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.279,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0675,
"confidence": 6.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Extreme xG deviation 71% vs league baseline"
],
"score": 5.2,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.2,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Extreme xG deviation 71% vs league baseline"
],
"score": 5.2,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.2
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "lean",
"final_decision": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 14.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Libertad FC FC)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0675,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.279,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.2,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.2,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 50,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"gap_pp": 14.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary"
],
"headline": "Selective Lean",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Libertad FC",
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Libertad FC \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.26 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +28% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1519419 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.26 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +6.8% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "xg_strength",
"label": "Extreme xG reduced Decision Strength (-2.0)",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.2/10 \u274c (need \u22657.0) \u00b7 Calibration Failed (extreme xG) \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.2/10 (gate \u22657.0) \u00b7 Calibration: Failed (extreme xG) \u2192 Primary blocked",
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Libertad FC FC).",
"Decision strength: 5.2/10",
"Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary",
"Outlier price +28% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 63,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2192 NOT Primary; at most discretionary selective (\u22640.25\u20130.5% bankroll, further cut under extreme-xG).",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Extreme xG deviation 71% vs league baseline"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean",
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0675,
"consensus_ev_display": "+6.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.26,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4214,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5659,
"raw_edge_display": "+14.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4424778761061947,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2789,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+27.9%"
},
"version": "v2.4",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "failed",
"deviation_pct": 71.1,
"reasons": [
"Extreme xG deviation 71% vs league baseline"
],
"recommended_action": "apply stronger regression",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5f3a\u4fe1\u53f7\uff08\u4f4e\u65b9\u5dee\uff09",
"scoring_type": "strong_signal",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.691,
"draw_prob": 0.2168,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.5659,
"over_prob": 0.718,
"total_xg": 3.72,
"under_prob": 0.282,
"xg_diff": 0.9
},
"type": "strong_signal",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.26,
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0509,
"ev": 0.0675,
"implied_prob": 0.4214,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.5659,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Libertad FC"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.691,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "lean",
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.718,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1519419,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0675,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.2173,
"draw": 0.2168,
"home": 0.5659
},
"reason_codes": [
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Delf\u00edn SC",
"home": "Libertad FC"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.045838,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0675,
"implied_prob": 0.4214,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.5659,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Libertad FC",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0675,
"consensus_ev_display": "+6.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.26,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4214,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5659,
"raw_edge_display": "+14.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4424778761061947,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2789,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+27.9%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1519419,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-07-21T21:29:06.380447+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
Dapatkan Ramalan Premium untuk Libertad & Delfín SC!
Buka analisis mendalam, tip pertaruhan eksklusif, dan ramalan perlawanan dengan perkhidmatan langganan premium kami.
Langgan Sekarang
Liga Pro Ecuador — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 30 | 24 | 2 | 4 | 74 |
| 2 | Macará | 30 | 15 | 6 | 9 | 51 |
| 3 | Aucas | 30 | 14 | 8 | 8 | 50 |
| 4 | Universidad Católica | 29 | 13 | 9 | 7 | 48 |
| 5 | LDU Quito | 30 | 13 | 7 | 10 | 46 |
| 6 | Barcelona SC | 30 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 44 |
| 7 | Libertad | 30 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 41 |
| 8 | Leones del Norte | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 39 |
| 9 | Guayaquil City FC | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 39 |
| 10 | Mushuc Runa SC | 30 | 9 | 11 | 10 | 38 |
| 11 | Emelec | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 36 |
| 12 | Deportivo Cuenca | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | 36 |
| 13 | Orense SC | 29 | 9 | 6 | 14 | 33 |
| 14 | Técnico Universitario | 30 | 10 | 2 | 18 | 32 |
| 15 | Delfín SC | 30 | 7 | 7 | 16 | 28 |
| 16 | Manta FC | 30 | 5 | 6 | 19 | 21 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 30 | 73 | 33 | +40 | 74 |
| 2 | Universidad Católica | 29 | 49 | 26 | +23 | 48 |
| 3 | Macará | 30 | 41 | 33 | +8 | 51 |
| 4 | Mushuc Runa SC | 30 | 35 | 38 | -3 | 38 |
| 5 | Orense SC | 29 | 35 | 45 | -10 | 33 |
| 6 | Aucas | 30 | 33 | 28 | +5 | 50 |
| 7 | Libertad | 30 | 33 | 34 | -1 | 41 |
| 8 | Guayaquil City FC | 30 | 33 | 36 | -3 | 39 |
| 9 | Barcelona SC | 30 | 32 | 25 | +7 | 44 |
| 10 | LDU Quito | 30 | 31 | 24 | +7 | 46 |
| 11 | Leones del Norte | 30 | 31 | 32 | -1 | 39 |
| 12 | Técnico Universitario | 30 | 28 | 42 | -14 | 32 |
| 13 | Emelec | 30 | 25 | 34 | -9 | 36 |
| 14 | Deportivo Cuenca | 30 | 25 | 37 | -12 | 36 |
| 15 | Delfín SC | 30 | 19 | 31 | -12 | 28 |
| 16 | Manta FC | 30 | 17 | 42 | -25 | 21 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | xG | xGC | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Emelec | 30 | 3.0 | 0.8 | +2.2 | 36 |
| 2 | Aucas | 30 | 2.9 | 1.6 | +1.3 | 50 |
| 3 | LDU Quito | 30 | 4.2 | 3.1 | +1.1 | 46 |
| 4 | Macará | 30 | 3.0 | 2.0 | +1.0 | 51 |
| 5 | Universidad Católica | 29 | 2.3 | 1.4 | +0.9 | 48 |
| 6 | Leones del Norte | 30 | 2.6 | 1.9 | +0.7 | 39 |
| 7 | Mushuc Runa SC | 30 | 2.3 | 1.7 | +0.6 | 38 |
| 8 | Delfín SC | 30 | 1.7 | 1.4 | +0.3 | 28 |
| 9 | Guayaquil City FC | 30 | 1.4 | 1.7 | -0.3 | 39 |
| 10 | Barcelona SC | 30 | 3.4 | 4.1 | -0.7 | 44 |
| 11 | Manta FC | 30 | 0.5 | 1.3 | -0.8 | 21 |
| 12 | Técnico Universitario | 30 | 0.6 | 1.7 | -1.1 | 32 |
| 13 | Orense SC | 29 | 0.3 | 1.8 | -1.5 | 33 |
| 14 | Libertad | 30 | 0.3 | 2.0 | -1.7 | 41 |
| 15 | Deportivo Cuenca | 30 | 3.3 | 5.3 | -2.0 | 36 |
| 16 | Independiente del Valle | 30 | — | — | — | 74 |
