Grindavik vs Ægir Statistics & Analysis

Jun 26, 2026 - 19:15
0 1.26
0 1.34
xG Accuracy: 49%
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Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa

Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.

  • Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 matlamat) ✔ Betul
  • Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Tidak ✖ tak betul
  • 1X2 Ægir Lukis ✖ tak betul
  • Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-0 ✖ tak betul

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 25, 2026 · 00:30 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1660887

Closing Odds 1.75
AI Fair Odds 2.7
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Grindavik 0–0 Ægir
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Probability Calibration

  • Expected: 37.0%
  • Historical Bucket: 35–40% — Building sample

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Intelijen pasaran

Bacaan selepas pilihan utama: bagaimana suapan penutup berprioriti bergerak berbanding model.

Ringkasan pasaran

Pasaran kekal stabil menjelang sepakan. Tiada anjakan implied ketara antara PRE30 dan PRE1 pada snapshot berprioriti.

Walaupun pergerakan lewat kecil, model masih menilai Lukis (1X2),Ægir (1X2),Bawah 2.5 gol jauh melebihi implied snapshot penutupan — bacaan statik "model vs harga", bukan kejaran steam.

Model masih melebihi implied penutupan pada Bawah 2.5 gol kira-kira 18.2 mata peratus — isyarat salah harga paling jelas pada halaman ini.

Model vs implied penutup

Pasaran Model % Implied penutup % Jurang (pp)
Grindavik (1X2) 33.4 53.7 -20.4
Lukis (1X2) 29.6 21.8 +7.8
Ægir (1X2) 37.0 24.5 +12.6
Lebih 2.5 gol 48.2 66.4 -18.2
Bawah 2.5 gol 51.8 33.6 +18.2
Apa maksudnya

Secara ringkas: model kira-kira 51.8% pada Bawah 2.5 gol, manakala snapshot penutup menunjukkan kira-kira 33.6%. Bezanya — kira-kira 18.2 mata peratus — ialah jurang model-vs-pasaran terbesar yang ditonjolkan di halaman ini.

Ringkas: "implied penutup" ialah kebarangkalian terbit daripada odds akhir yang ditangkap (selepas de-vig ringkas). "Jurang (pp)" = peratus model tolak implied tersebut, dalam mata peratus (pp).

Pergerakan garisan menjelang sepakan mula

Satu buku prioriti setiap snapshot (bukan semua). Laluan tangkapan: PRE30 → PRE1 · Buku: Pinnacle

Dalam kurungan pada lajur: Penutup = snapshot pertama tersedia ikut PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Awal = pertama dalam PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 yang berbeza daripada Penutup.

Odds terperinci dilipat di bawah — pergerakan implied (de-vig) boleh diabaikan.

Lihat jadual penuh baris demi baris
Pasaran Awal (PRE30) Penutup (PRE1) Δ tersirat (pp)
Grindavik (1X2) 1.75 1.75 0.0
Lukis (1X2) 4.32 4.32 0.0
Ægir (1X2) 3.84 3.84 0.0
Lebih 2.5 gol 1.42 1.42 0.0
Bawah 2.5 gol 2.81 2.81 0.0

Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.

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    ],
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        "alert_breadth_note": "7/14 sportsbooks confirmed",
        "alert_move": "\u2193 -14.5%",
        "alert_team": "\u00c6gir",
        "alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
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          "outcome": "draw"
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          "outcome": "away"
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        {
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          "market_prob": null,
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        {
          "edge_pp": null,
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          "market_prob": null,
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          "outcome": "yes"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": null,
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          "market_prob": null,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "no"
        }
      ],
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        "edge_label": "extreme_disagreement",
        "edge_pp": -20.43,
        "fair_prob_pct": 33.31,
        "hero_side": "home",
        "hero_team_name": "Grindavik",
        "market_prob_pct": 53.74,
        "status": "market_ahead",
        "steam_team_name": "\u00c6gir"
      },
      "fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
      "fair_vs_market": {
        "comparison_available": true,
        "comparison_disabled": false,
        "degraded_note": "",
        "divergence_guard": {
          "divergence_level": "extreme",
          "edge_status": "market_ahead",
          "max_gap_pp": 20.43,
          "suppress_hero": false,
          "suppress_value_language": true
        },
        "divergence_label": "Extreme model-market divergence",
        "divergence_level": "extreme",
        "divergence_level_label": "Extreme divergence",
        "divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs substantially from current market pricing. Large divergences can occur when rating inputs are incomplete, team-strength estimates are uncertain, or the market incorporates information not present in the model. Interpret with caution.",
        "divergence_tier": "extreme",
        "edge_label": "Extreme disagreement",
        "edge_label_key": "extreme_disagreement",
        "fair_confidence": "medium",
        "fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
        "fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
        "forecast_assessment": {
          "favourite_class": "Balanced match",
          "favourite_label": "\u00c6gir",
          "forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
          "headline": "Balanced match",
          "market_agreement_label": "Weak",
          "market_prob_pct": 24.5,
          "model_prob_pct": 37.1,
          "outcome_separation_tier": "low",
          "paragraphs": [],
          "reliability_headline": "Use caution",
          "reliability_icon": "!",
          "reliability_tier": "caution",
          "summary": "The model and market both lean \u00c6gir, but neither indicates a dominant favourite. Draw and Grindavik remain plausible \u2014 this is a relatively open match.",
          "tier": "balanced",
          "title": "Prediction Assessment",
          "validation_label": "Warning"
        },
        "forecast_certainty": {
          "note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
          "tier": "low",
          "tier_label": "Low"
        },
        "forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
        "has_market_probs": true,
        "hero_edge_pp": -20.43,
        "hero_label": "Grindavik",
        "hero_side": "home",
        "market_activity": "\u00c6gir odds shortened \u2193 -14.5%.",
        "market_agreement": "weak",
        "market_agreement_label": "Weak",
        "market_interpretation": {},
        "market_narrative": {},
        "max_gap_pp": 20.43,
        "model_validation": {
          "score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
          "status": "warning"
        },
        "model_validation_label": "Warning",
        "outcome_separation": {
          "breakdown": [
            "No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
            "Top two 1X2 outcomes within 3.8 percentage points."
          ],
          "lead_gap_pp": 3.8,
          "max_prob_pct": 37.1,
          "note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
          "tier": "low",
          "tier_label": "Low"
        },
        "outcome_separation_label": "Low",
        "rows": [
          {
            "edge_pp": -20.43,
            "fair_prob_pct": 33.31,
            "is_hero": true,
            "label": "Grindavik",
            "market_prob_pct": 53.74,
            "side": "home"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": 7.86,
            "fair_prob_pct": 29.63,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Draw",
            "market_prob_pct": 21.77,
            "side": "draw"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": 12.57,
            "fair_prob_pct": 37.06,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "\u00c6gir",
            "market_prob_pct": 24.49,
            "side": "away"
          }
        ],
        "status": "market_ahead",
        "status_label": "Market Ahead",
        "steam_note": "",
        "unavailable_note": ""
      },
      "interpretation": {
        "has_conflict": true,
        "paragraphs": [
          "The betting market strongly prefers Grindavik (24.5%).",
          "However, \u00c6gir has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -14.5%, 7/14).",
          "This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 \u00c6gir, Market \u2192 Grindavik, Recent sharp money \u2192 \u00c6gir.",
          "Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
        ],
        "show": true,
        "title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
      },
      "lifecycle": {
        "closing_implied_pct": 57.14,
        "closing_odds": 1.75,
        "clv_pending": true,
        "clv_pp": 0.0,
        "clv_status": "pending",
        "context": "match",
        "current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
        "current_stage_detail": "",
        "current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
        "entry_implied_pct": 57.14,
        "entry_odds": 1.75,
        "model_validation_label": "Warning",
        "model_validation_status": "warning",
        "stages": [
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "forecast_generated",
            "label": "Prediction Generated",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "market_detected",
            "label": "Market Compared",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "model_validated",
            "label": "Validation Passed",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "PRE1",
            "id": "closing_recorded",
            "label": "Closing Recorded",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "clv_evaluated",
            "label": "CLV Evaluated",
            "status": "pending"
          }
        ]
      },
      "market_move_intelligence": {
        "books_reacting": 7,
        "books_total": 14,
        "breadth_display": "7/14",
        "clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
        "clv_status": "evaluated",
        "current_odds": 3.7,
        "move_context": "Largest move today",
        "move_display": "\u2193 -14.5%",
        "move_pct_abs": 14.5,
        "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
        "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 35h 56m",
        "narrative_paragraphs": [
          "Multi-book steam on \u00c6gir (14.5%, 7/14) \u2014 aligned shortening, not a single-book blip.",
          "Sharper sportsbooks initiated a solid move with growing cross-book confirmation."
        ],
        "narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
        "odds_path": {
          "display": "4.33 \u2192 3.44 \u2192 3.70",
          "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
          "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 35h 56m",
          "pick_team": "\u00c6gir",
          "points": [
            {
              "label_key": "open",
              "value": "4.33"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "extreme",
              "value": "3.44"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "current",
              "value": "3.70"
            }
          ],
          "sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,14.0 56.0,18.0",
          "sparkline_trend": "down",
          "sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop"
        },
        "open_odds": 4.33,
        "page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: \u00c6gir \u2193 -14.5% market move detected",
        "phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
        "phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
        "pick_team": "\u00c6gir",
        "ref_book": "Bet365",
        "seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: \u00c6gir \u2193 -14.5% market move detected",
        "sharp_leader": "Bet365",
        "show": true,
        "signal_badge_class": "confirm",
        "signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc8",
        "signal_key": "market_steam",
        "signal_label": "Steam",
        "steam_score": 63,
        "steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
        "steam_tier": "A",
        "title": "Market Move Intelligence"
      },
      "market_overview": {
        "breadth_display": "7/14",
        "current_odds": 3.7,
        "move_display": "\u2193 -14.5%",
        "open_odds": 4.33,
        "pick_team": "\u00c6gir",
        "steam_score": 63,
        "steam_team_name": "\u00c6gir",
        "steam_tier": "A"
      },
      "premium_teaser": {
        "current_divergence_pp": 20.4,
        "divergence_label": "Current divergence",
        "title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
        "unlock_items": [
          "Historical similar matches",
          "Closing odds analysis",
          "CLV tracking",
          "Sharp money signals",
          "Market efficiency rating",
          "Historical model vs market results"
        ],
        "unlock_label": "Unlock"
      },
      "show": true
    },
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 4167,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/4167.webp",
      "away_team_name": "\u00c6gir",
      "country_code": "IS",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/is.svg",
      "country_name": "Iceland",
      "fixture_id": 1514215,
      "goals_away": 0,
      "goals_home": 0,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_country": "Iceland",
      "home_team_id": 277,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/277.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Grindavik",
      "league_country": "Iceland",
      "league_id": 165,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/165.webp",
      "league_name": "1. Deild Iceland",
      "league_season": 2026,
      "match_date": "2026-06-26 19:15:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "First Half",
      "status_short": "1H",
      "venue_city": null,
      "venue_name": null
    },
    "match_decision": {
      "confidence": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
          "Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.0
      },
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.2435,
            "best_odd": 3.84,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0306,
            "ev": 0.0579,
            "implied_prob": 0.2449,
            "model_prob": 0.3705,
            "p_final": 0.2755
          },
          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.1765,
            "best_odd": 4.32,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0138,
            "ev": 0.0001,
            "implied_prob": 0.2177,
            "model_prob": 0.296,
            "p_final": 0.2315
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.4165,
            "best_odd": 1.75,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0849,
            "ev": -0.2082,
            "implied_prob": 0.5374,
            "model_prob": 0.3335,
            "p_final": 0.4525
          }
        },
        "btts": {
          "ev_available": false,
          "n_bookmakers": 0,
          "reliability": "low"
        },
        "ou25": {
          "ev_available": false,
          "n_bookmakers": 0,
          "reliability": "low"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 2.6,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.2.0"
      },
      "balanced_alternative": null,
      "best_tracked_ev": 0.0579,
      "confidence": 5.0,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
          "pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Primary line identified (+1.0)",
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
        ],
        "score": 5.0
      },
      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": false,
        "1x2_open_contest": true,
        "grade": "B",
        "stake_factor": 0.5
      },
      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
      },
      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
        "scoring_type": "balanced",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
          "draw_prob": 0.296,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.3705,
          "over_prob": 0.482,
          "total_xg": 2.6,
          "under_prob": 0.518,
          "xg_diff": 0.08
        },
        "type": "balanced",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
      },
      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.0306,
          "ev": 0.0579,
          "implied_prob": 0.2449,
          "max_ev_side": "away",
          "model_prob": 0.3705,
          "side": "away",
          "side_label": "\u00c6gir"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "lean",
          "edge": null,
          "ev": null,
          "implied_prob": null,
          "model_prob": 0.545,
          "side": "yes",
          "value_side": "yes"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "no_bet",
          "edge": null,
          "ev": null,
          "implied_prob": null,
          "model_prob": 0.518,
          "side": "under",
          "value_side": "under"
        }
      },
      "match_id": 1514215,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "optional",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": false,
        "code": "thin_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.0579,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 0.25,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.3705,
        "draw": 0.296,
        "home": 0.3335
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "model_summary"
      ],
      "secondary_pick": null,
      "secondary_picks": [],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "\u00c6gir",
        "home": "Grindavik"
      },
      "top_pick": {
        "composite_score": 0.023597,
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.0579,
        "implied_prob": 0.2449,
        "market": "1x2",
        "model_prob": 0.3705,
        "not_dominant": true,
        "primary_strength": "weak",
        "risk_band": "speculative",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "away",
        "side_label": "\u00c6gir",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": true
      },
      "valid_markets_count": 1
    }
  },
  "fixture_id": 1514215,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-06-26T19:54:16.995668+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}

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1. Deild Iceland 1. Deild Iceland — Kedudukan
# PASUKAN P M S K Mata
1 Afturelding 22 14 3 5 45
2 Throttur Reykjavik 22 13 4 5 43
3 Fylkir 22 13 1 8 40
4 HK Kopavogur 22 12 2 8 38
5 Njardvik 22 12 2 8 38
6 Leiknir R. 22 8 4 10 28
7 IR Reykjavik 22 8 4 10 28
8 Grotta 22 8 3 11 27
9 Vestri 22 8 3 11 27
10 Völsungur 22 7 5 10 26
11 Grindavik 22 5 10 7 25
12 Ægir 22 2 3 17 9
# PASUKAN P J B +/- Mata
1 Afturelding 22 65 33 +32 45
2 HK Kopavogur 22 52 40 +12 38
3 Throttur Reykjavik 22 50 25 +25 43
4 Fylkir 22 49 36 +13 40
5 IR Reykjavik 22 40 46 -6 28
6 Njardvik 22 38 29 +9 38
7 Grotta 22 36 43 -7 27
8 Leiknir R. 22 34 33 +1 28
9 Völsungur 22 32 44 -12 26
10 Vestri 22 30 43 -13 27
11 Grindavik 22 25 35 -10 25
12 Ægir 22 25 69 -44 9