Statistik / Bola Sepak / Iceland. 1. Deild Iceland / Throttur Reykjavik vs HK Kopavogur

Throttur Reykjavik vs HK Kopavogur Statistics & Analysis

Jun 12, 2026 - 19:15
2 1.30
0 1.30
xG Accuracy: 58%
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Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa

Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.

  • Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 matlamat) ✔ Betul
  • Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Tidak ✔ Betul
  • 1X2 Throttur Reykjavik Throttur Reykjavik ✔ Betul
  • Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-0 ✖ tak betul

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 25, 2026 · 20:16 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1759318

Closing Odds 1.99
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Throttur Reykjavik win · Throttur Reykjavik 2–0 HK Kopavogur
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Intelijen pasaran

Bacaan selepas pilihan utama: bagaimana suapan penutup berprioriti bergerak berbanding model.

Ringkasan pasaran

Pasaran kekal stabil menjelang sepakan. Tiada anjakan implied ketara antara PRE30 dan PRE1 pada snapshot berprioriti.

Walaupun pergerakan lewat kecil, model masih menilai Lukis (1X2),HK Kopavogur (1X2) jauh melebihi implied snapshot penutupan — bacaan statik "model vs harga", bukan kejaran steam.

Model masih melebihi implied penutupan pada Lukis (1X2) kira-kira 6.1 mata peratus — isyarat salah harga paling jelas pada halaman ini.

Model vs implied penutup

Pasaran Model % Implied penutup % Jurang (pp)
Throttur Reykjavik (1X2) 35.2 46.3 -11.1
Lukis (1X2) 29.6 23.6 +6.1
HK Kopavogur (1X2) 35.2 30.1 +5.1
Apa maksudnya

Secara ringkas: model kira-kira 29.6% pada Lukis (1X2), manakala snapshot penutup menunjukkan kira-kira 23.6%. Bezanya — kira-kira 6.1 mata peratus — ialah jurang model-vs-pasaran terbesar yang ditonjolkan di halaman ini.

Ringkas: "implied penutup" ialah kebarangkalian terbit daripada odds akhir yang ditangkap (selepas de-vig ringkas). "Jurang (pp)" = peratus model tolak implied tersebut, dalam mata peratus (pp).

Pergerakan garisan menjelang sepakan mula

Satu buku prioriti setiap snapshot (bukan semua). Laluan tangkapan: PRE30 → PRE1 · Buku: Pinnacle

Dalam kurungan pada lajur: Penutup = snapshot pertama tersedia ikut PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Awal = pertama dalam PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 yang berbeza daripada Penutup.

Odds terperinci dilipat di bawah — pergerakan implied (de-vig) boleh diabaikan.

Lihat jadual penuh baris demi baris
Pasaran Awal (PRE30) Penutup (PRE1) Δ tersirat (pp)
Throttur Reykjavik (1X2) 1.99 1.99 0.0
Lukis (1X2) 3.91 3.91 0.0
HK Kopavogur (1X2) 3.06 3.06 0.0

Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.

View technical JSON
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        "alert_breadth_note": "12/13 sportsbooks confirmed",
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        "status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
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          "outcome": "away"
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          "outcome": "over"
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        {
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          "market_prob": 32.34,
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          "outcome": "under"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -13.28,
          "fair_prob": 54.5,
          "label": "BTTS Yes",
          "market_prob": 67.78,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "yes"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 13.28,
          "fair_prob": 45.5,
          "label": "BTTS No",
          "market_prob": 32.22,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "no"
        }
      ],
      "edge_snapshot": {
        "edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
        "edge_pp": -11.14,
        "fair_prob_pct": 35.17,
        "hero_side": "home",
        "hero_team_name": "Throttur Reykjavik",
        "market_prob_pct": 46.31,
        "status": "market_ahead",
        "steam_team_name": "HK Kopavogur"
      },
      "fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
      "fair_vs_market": {
        "comparison_available": true,
        "comparison_disabled": false,
        "degraded_note": "",
        "divergence_guard": {
          "divergence_level": "strong",
          "edge_status": "market_ahead",
          "max_gap_pp": 11.14,
          "suppress_hero": false,
          "suppress_value_language": false
        },
        "divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
        "divergence_level": "strong",
        "divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
        "divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
        "divergence_tier": "strong",
        "edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
        "edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
        "fair_confidence": "medium",
        "fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
        "fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
        "forecast_assessment": {
          "favourite_class": "Balanced match",
          "favourite_label": "Throttur Reykjavik",
          "forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
          "headline": "Balanced match",
          "market_agreement_label": "Weak",
          "market_prob_pct": 46.3,
          "model_prob_pct": 35.2,
          "outcome_separation_tier": "low",
          "paragraphs": [],
          "reliability_headline": "Use caution",
          "reliability_icon": "!",
          "reliability_tier": "caution",
          "summary": "Both lean Throttur Reykjavik, but the market prices them higher (46.3% vs model 35.2%). The edge remains modest and the match stays relatively open.",
          "tier": "balanced",
          "title": "Forecast Assessment",
          "validation_label": "Warning"
        },
        "forecast_certainty": {
          "note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
          "tier": "low",
          "tier_label": "Low"
        },
        "forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
        "has_market_probs": true,
        "hero_edge_pp": -11.14,
        "hero_label": "Throttur Reykjavik",
        "hero_side": "home",
        "market_activity": "HK Kopavogur odds shortened \u2193 -21.1%.",
        "market_agreement": "weak",
        "market_agreement_label": "Weak",
        "market_interpretation": {
          "bullets": [
            "Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
            "Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
          ],
          "follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on HK Kopavogur, with odds shortening by 21.1%.",
          "gap_tier": "strong",
          "lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Throttur Reykjavik than the current fair estimate.",
          "note": "Buying interest on HK Kopavogur \u2014 odds shortened by 21.1%.",
          "paragraphs": [
            "The market is materially more optimistic about Throttur Reykjavik than the current fair estimate.",
            "However, recent buying interest has been on HK Kopavogur, with odds shortening by 21.1%.",
            "Buying interest on HK Kopavogur \u2014 odds shortened by 21.1%."
          ],
          "quiet_market": false,
          "title": "Market Assessment"
        },
        "market_narrative": {
          "paragraphs": [
            "The market favors Throttur Reykjavik more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
            "At the same time, HK Kopavogur has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 21.1%.",
            "Broad sportsbook alignment (12/13) supports the current market view on HK Kopavogur."
          ],
          "title": "Current Market Narrative"
        },
        "max_gap_pp": 11.14,
        "model_validation": {
          "score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
          "status": "warning"
        },
        "model_validation_label": "Warning",
        "outcome_separation": {
          "breakdown": [
            "No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
            "Top two 1X2 outcomes within 0.0 percentage points."
          ],
          "lead_gap_pp": 0.0,
          "max_prob_pct": 35.2,
          "note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
          "tier": "low",
          "tier_label": "Low"
        },
        "outcome_separation_label": "Low",
        "rows": [
          {
            "edge_pp": -11.14,
            "fair_prob_pct": 35.17,
            "is_hero": true,
            "label": "Throttur Reykjavik",
            "market_prob_pct": 46.31,
            "side": "home"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": 6.08,
            "fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Draw",
            "market_prob_pct": 23.57,
            "side": "draw"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": 5.05,
            "fair_prob_pct": 35.17,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "HK Kopavogur",
            "market_prob_pct": 30.12,
            "side": "away"
          }
        ],
        "status": "market_ahead",
        "status_label": "Market Ahead",
        "steam_note": "Buying interest on HK Kopavogur \u2014 odds shortened by 21.1%.",
        "unavailable_note": ""
      },
      "interpretation": {
        "has_conflict": true,
        "paragraphs": [
          "The betting market strongly prefers Throttur Reykjavik (46.3%).",
          "However, HK Kopavogur has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -21.1%, 12/13).",
          "This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Throttur Reykjavik, Market \u2192 Throttur Reykjavik, Recent sharp money \u2192 HK Kopavogur.",
          "Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
        ],
        "show": true,
        "title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
      },
      "lifecycle": {
        "closing_implied_pct": 50.25,
        "closing_odds": 1.99,
        "clv_pending": true,
        "clv_pp": 0.0,
        "clv_status": "pending",
        "context": "match",
        "current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
        "current_stage_detail": "",
        "current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
        "entry_implied_pct": 50.25,
        "entry_odds": 1.99,
        "model_validation_label": "Warning",
        "model_validation_status": "warning",
        "stages": [
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "forecast_generated",
            "label": "Forecast Generated",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "market_detected",
            "label": "Market Compared",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "model_validated",
            "label": "Validation Passed",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "PRE1",
            "id": "closing_recorded",
            "label": "Closing Recorded",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "clv_evaluated",
            "label": "CLV Evaluated",
            "status": "pending"
          }
        ]
      },
      "market_move_intelligence": {
        "books_reacting": 12,
        "books_total": 13,
        "breadth_display": "12/13",
        "clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
        "clv_status": "evaluated",
        "current_odds": 3.0,
        "move_context": "Largest move today",
        "move_display": "\u2193 -21.1%",
        "move_pct_abs": 21.1,
        "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
        "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 15h 59m",
        "narrative_paragraphs": [
          "12/13 books synchronized on HK Kopavogur (21.1% steam, score 97) \u2014 high-conviction multi-book repricing beats isolated ticks.",
          "Sharp sportsbooks led a meaningful repricing with broad market follow-through."
        ],
        "narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
        "odds_path": {
          "display": "3.90 \u2192 2.70 \u2192 3.00",
          "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
          "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 15h 59m",
          "pick_team": "HK Kopavogur",
          "points": [
            {
              "label_key": "open",
              "value": "3.90"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "extreme",
              "value": "2.70"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "current",
              "value": "3.00"
            }
          ],
          "sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,16.6 56.0,18.0",
          "sparkline_trend": "down",
          "sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop"
        },
        "open_odds": 3.8,
        "page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: HK Kopavogur \u2193 -21.1% market move detected",
        "phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
        "phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
        "pick_team": "HK Kopavogur",
        "ref_book": "Bet365",
        "seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: HK Kopavogur \u2193 -21.1% market move detected",
        "sharp_leader": "Betfair",
        "show": true,
        "signal_badge_class": "steam",
        "signal_icon": "\ud83d\udd25",
        "signal_key": "strong_steam",
        "signal_label": "Strong steam",
        "steam_score": 97,
        "steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
        "steam_tier": "A+",
        "title": "Market Move Intelligence"
      },
      "market_overview": {
        "breadth_display": "12/13",
        "current_odds": 3.0,
        "move_display": "\u2193 -21.1%",
        "open_odds": 3.8,
        "pick_team": "HK Kopavogur",
        "steam_score": 97,
        "steam_team_name": "HK Kopavogur",
        "steam_tier": "A+"
      },
      "premium_teaser": {
        "current_divergence_pp": 11.1,
        "divergence_label": "Current divergence",
        "title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
        "unlock_items": [
          "Historical similar matches",
          "Closing odds analysis",
          "CLV tracking",
          "Sharp money signals",
          "Market efficiency rating",
          "Historical model vs market results"
        ],
        "unlock_label": "Unlock"
      },
      "show": true
    },
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 2113,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/2113.webp",
      "away_team_name": "HK Kopavogur",
      "country_code": "IS",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/is.svg",
      "country_name": "Iceland",
      "fixture_id": 1514204,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_country": "Iceland",
      "home_team_id": 829,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/829.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Throttur Reykjavik",
      "league_country": "Iceland",
      "league_id": 165,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/165.webp",
      "league_name": "1. Deild Iceland",
      "league_season": 2026,
      "match_date": "2026-06-12 19:15:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS",
      "venue_city": null,
      "venue_name": null
    },
    "match_decision": {
      "confidence": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
          "Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.0
      },
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.2772,
            "best_odd": 3.06,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.014,
            "ev": -0.0355,
            "implied_prob": 0.3012,
            "model_prob": 0.3518,
            "p_final": 0.3152
          },
          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.2727,
            "best_odd": 3.91,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0166,
            "ev": -0.0136,
            "implied_prob": 0.2357,
            "model_prob": 0.2965,
            "p_final": 0.2523
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.4998,
            "best_odd": 1.99,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0556,
            "ev": -0.1891,
            "implied_prob": 0.4631,
            "model_prob": 0.3518,
            "p_final": 0.4075
          }
        },
        "btts": {
          "best_no_odd": 3.1,
          "best_yes_odd": 1.4,
          "edge_no": 0.1328,
          "edge_yes": -0.1328,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_no": 0.4105,
          "ev_yes": -0.237,
          "implied_no": 0.3222,
          "implied_yes": 0.6778,
          "n_bookmakers": 9,
          "reliability": "medium"
        },
        "ou25": {
          "best_over_odd": 1.36,
          "best_under_odd": 3.0,
          "edge_over": -0.1946,
          "edge_under": 0.1946,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_over": -0.3445,
          "ev_under": 0.554,
          "implied_over": 0.6766,
          "implied_under": 0.3234,
          "n_bookmakers": 9,
          "reliability": "medium"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 2.6,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.2.0"
      },
      "balanced_alternative": null,
      "best_tracked_ev": 0.554,
      "confidence": 6.5,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
          "pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Primary line identified (+1.0)",
          "Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
          "Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.5
      },
      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": false,
        "1x2_open_contest": true,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
      },
      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
      },
      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
        "scoring_type": "balanced",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
          "draw_prob": 0.2965,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.3518,
          "over_prob": 0.482,
          "total_xg": 2.6,
          "under_prob": 0.518,
          "xg_diff": 0.0
        },
        "type": "balanced",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
      },
      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "decision": "no_bet",
          "edge": -0.0556,
          "ev": -0.1891,
          "implied_prob": 0.4631,
          "max_ev_side": "draw",
          "model_prob": 0.3518,
          "side": "home",
          "side_label": "Throttur Reykjavik"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.1328,
          "ev": 0.4105,
          "implied_prob": 0.3222,
          "model_prob": 0.455,
          "side": "no",
          "value_side": "no"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.1946,
          "ev": 0.554,
          "implied_prob": 0.3234,
          "model_prob": 0.518,
          "side": "under",
          "value_side": "under"
        }
      },
      "match_id": 1514204,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "bet",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": true,
        "code": "clear_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.554,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 1.0,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.3518,
        "draw": 0.2965,
        "home": 0.3518
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "no_ev_1x2"
      ],
      "secondary_pick": {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.4105,
        "implied_prob": 0.3222,
        "market": "btts",
        "model_prob": 0.455,
        "not_dominant": true,
        "risk_band": "medium",
        "risk_tier": "secondary",
        "side": "no",
        "slot": "secondary"
      },
      "secondary_picks": [
        {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "ev": 0.4105,
          "implied_prob": 0.3222,
          "market": "btts",
          "model_prob": 0.455,
          "not_dominant": true,
          "risk_band": "medium",
          "risk_tier": "secondary",
          "side": "no",
          "slot": "secondary"
        }
      ],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "HK Kopavogur",
        "home": "Throttur Reykjavik"
      },
      "top_pick": {
        "composite_score": 0.20088,
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.554,
        "implied_prob": 0.3234,
        "market": "ou_2_5",
        "model_prob": 0.518,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "under",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
      },
      "valid_markets_count": 2
    }
  },
  "fixture_id": 1514204,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-06-12T19:14:05.246626+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}

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1. Deild Iceland 1. Deild Iceland — Kedudukan
# PASUKAN P M S K Mata
1 Afturelding 22 14 3 5 45
2 Throttur Reykjavik 22 13 4 5 43
3 Fylkir 22 13 1 8 40
4 HK Kopavogur 22 12 2 8 38
5 Njardvik 22 12 2 8 38
6 Leiknir R. 22 8 4 10 28
7 IR Reykjavik 22 8 4 10 28
8 Grotta 22 8 3 11 27
9 Vestri 22 8 3 11 27
10 Völsungur 22 7 5 10 26
11 Grindavik 22 5 10 7 25
12 Ægir 22 2 3 17 9
# PASUKAN P J B +/- Mata
1 Afturelding 22 65 33 +32 45
2 HK Kopavogur 22 52 40 +12 38
3 Throttur Reykjavik 22 50 25 +25 43
4 Fylkir 22 49 36 +13 40
5 IR Reykjavik 22 40 46 -6 28
6 Njardvik 22 38 29 +9 38
7 Grotta 22 36 43 -7 27
8 Leiknir R. 22 34 33 +1 28
9 Völsungur 22 32 44 -12 26
10 Vestri 22 30 43 -13 27
11 Grindavik 22 25 35 -10 25
12 Ægir 22 25 69 -44 9