Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Ya ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Flora Tallinn Flora Tallinn ✔ Betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 0-1, 1-1, 0-2, 1-2, 0-0 2-3 ✖ tak betul
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.52
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Flora Tallinn win · Nõmme United 2–3 Flora Tallinn
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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"api_prediction": {
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"main_pick_display": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
"percent_away": "50%",
"percent_draw": "50%",
"percent_home": "0%",
"winner_name": "Flora Tallinn"
},
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"betting_insight": {
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"reason": "Model probability is not above market implied probability",
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"away_played": 26,
"away_score_rate": 80.2,
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"home_played": 26,
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},
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"away_expected": 1.62,
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"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
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{
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{
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{
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],
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"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
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{
"key": "12",
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},
{
"key": "X2",
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}
],
"pick_key": "X2",
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"draw_pct": 27.9,
"home_pct": 21.3,
"lean_key": "away",
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"over_under": {
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"prob_source": "poisson",
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"label": "Draw",
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}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
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"draw": 20.27,
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"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-12 13:56:16",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-12 13:32:21",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "N\u00f5mme United",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
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{
"closing_implied_pct": 20.27,
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{
"closing_implied_pct": 60.94,
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"kind": "1x2_a",
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{
"closing_implied_pct": 67.22,
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"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 32.78,
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"movement": [
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"closing": 1.39,
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"closing": 2.85,
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{
"label": "1-1",
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{
"label": "0-2",
"prob": 9.7
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{
"label": "1-2",
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{
"label": "0-0",
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"consensus_odds": 3.015,
"edge": 0.0175,
"edge_pp": 1.8,
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},
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"text": "-32.5%"
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"text": "+25%+"
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{
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"edge": 0.0203,
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"no": {
"alpha": 0.1411,
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"edge": 0.0203,
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},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.4036,
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"raw_pct": 40.4,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"ev_yes": -0.226,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -22.6,
"text": "-22.6%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
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"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no_prob": 48.4,
"sort_key": 10363.24,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 51.6
},
{
"authority_action": "lean",
"authority_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"consensus_odds": 1.52,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1522,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -15.2,
"text": "-15.2%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.6094,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0121,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -1.2,
"text": "-1.2%"
},
"model_prob": 0.5079,
"raw_edge_display": "-10.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -10.2,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.228,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-22.8%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Flora Tallinn",
"sort_key": 1796.975,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 816.0,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "0-1",
"top_prob": 12.0
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "5/11",
"alert_breadth_note": "5/11 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +18.4%",
"alert_team": "N\u00f5mme United",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 10.1,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -10.14,
"hero_label": "Flora Tallinn",
"market_prob_pct": 60.9,
"market_team": "Flora Tallinn",
"model_prob_pct": 50.8,
"model_team": "Flora Tallinn",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 67,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Flora Tallinn)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Flora Tallinn)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.7094,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.7094,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 7.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.2,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 52,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Flora Tallinn at 50.8%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 60.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Flora Tallinn as the value side (50.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Flora Tallinn",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"edge_low"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +70.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +70.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 7.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +70.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "65 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+70.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Flora Tallinn).",
"Decision strength: 7.7/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 65,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1522,
"consensus_ev_display": "-15.2%",
"consensus_odds": 1.52,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.6094,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5079,
"raw_edge_display": "-10.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -10.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6578947368421053,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.228,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-22.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 20.0,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.64"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.64
}
}
},
"bet_status": "lean",
"books_breadth_display": "5/11",
"breadth_ratio": 0.45454545454545453,
"evidence": {
"score": 76,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Moderate model lean",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (10 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 19.9,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 4.5,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 65,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 10.14,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 10.14,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.62,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 20.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 0.98,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.62,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 0.98 \u00b7 Away xG 1.62 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +20%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 18.4,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +18.4%",
"steam_team": "N\u00f5mme United",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 52,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 49,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 50,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 49,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Flora Tallinn)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Flora Tallinn)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.7094,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.7094,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 7.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.2,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 52,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Flora Tallinn at 50.8%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 60.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Flora Tallinn as the value side (50.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Flora Tallinn",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"edge_low"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +70.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +70.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 7.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +70.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "65 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+70.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Flora Tallinn).",
"Decision strength: 7.7/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 65,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1522,
"consensus_ev_display": "-15.2%",
"consensus_odds": 1.52,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.6094,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5079,
"raw_edge_display": "-10.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -10.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6578947368421053,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.228,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-22.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 20.0,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.64"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.64
}
}
},
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: N\u00f5mme United 0.98 xG vs Flora Tallinn 1.62 \u2192 Flora Tallinn 50.8%",
"Market: Flora Tallinn ~60.9% implied",
"Market Drift: N\u00f5mme United odds \u2191 +18.4%"
],
"one_liner": "Flora Tallinn projects stronger on expected goals (+0.64 xG edge).",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 2.54,
"fair_prob": 21.33,
"label": "N\u00f5mme United",
"market_prob": 18.79,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.61,
"fair_prob": 27.88,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 20.27,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -10.14,
"fair_prob": 50.8,
"label": "Flora Tallinn",
"market_prob": 60.94,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -21.52,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 69.72,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 21.52,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 30.28,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -14.37,
"fair_prob": 51.6,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 65.97,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 14.37,
"fair_prob": 48.4,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 34.03,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -10.14,
"fair_prob_pct": 50.8,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Flora Tallinn",
"market_prob_pct": 60.94,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "N\u00f5mme United"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Flora Tallinn\u0027s win probability at 60.9%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 50.8%, a difference of 10.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 10.14,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
"favourite_label": "Flora Tallinn",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "medium",
"headline": "Slight edge match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 60.9,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-10.1 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -10.1,
"model_prob_pct": 50.8,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-10.1 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -10.1,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 65,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "Flora Tallinn \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "slight_edge",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 52,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 49,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 50,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 49,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: N\u00f5mme United 0.98 xG vs Flora Tallinn 1.62 \u2192 Flora Tallinn 50.8%",
"Market: Flora Tallinn ~60.9% implied",
"Market Drift: N\u00f5mme United odds \u2191 +18.4%"
],
"one_liner": "Flora Tallinn projects stronger on expected goals (+0.64 xG edge).",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "A lead outcome exists, but the match is not one-sided in the model.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Medium",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -10.14,
"hero_label": "Flora Tallinn",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "N\u00f5mme United odds lengthened \u2191 +18.4%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, N\u00f5mme United has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 18.4%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (5/11 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Flora Tallinn than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Drift away from N\u00f5mme United \u2014 odds lengthened by 18.4% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Flora Tallinn than the current fair estimate.",
"However, N\u00f5mme United has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 18.4%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (5/11 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"Drift away from N\u00f5mme United \u2014 odds lengthened by 18.4% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Flora Tallinn more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, N\u00f5mme United has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 18.4%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (5/11), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 10.14,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 22.9 pp (at 50.8%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 22.9,
"max_prob_pct": 50.8,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Flora Tallinn",
"largest_gap_pp": -10.1,
"lead": "The closing market prices Flora Tallinn higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 10.1,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 2.54,
"edge_pp": 2.54,
"fair_prob_pct": 21.33,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "N\u00f5mme United",
"market_prob_pct": 18.79,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 7.61,
"edge_pp": 7.61,
"fair_prob_pct": 27.88,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 20.27,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -10.14,
"edge_pp": -10.14,
"fair_prob_pct": 50.8,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Flora Tallinn",
"market_prob_pct": 60.94,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Drift away from N\u00f5mme United \u2014 odds lengthened by 18.4% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Flora Tallinn (60.9%).",
"However, N\u00f5mme United has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +18.4%, 5/11) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"Flora Tallinn \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 65.79,
"closing_odds": 1.52,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 65.79,
"entry_odds": 1.52,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE5",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 5,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +26.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 26.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +25.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 25.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +24.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 24.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +18.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 18.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +15.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.6
}
],
"books_total": 11,
"breadth_display": "5/11",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 4.5,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +18.4%",
"move_pct_abs": 18.4,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 112h 17m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Betfair led repricing on N\u00f5mme United (18.4%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"Sharper sportsbooks initiated a solid move with growing cross-book confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 18.4,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"4.93",
"4.37",
"3.80"
],
"display": "5.26 \u2192 3.80 \u2192 4.50",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 112h 17m",
"pick_team": "N\u00f5mme United",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "5.26"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.80"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.50"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.8,
4.93,
4.5
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,6.8",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.80"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.80"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "4.93"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.50"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.8,
"page_alert_line": "Market drift alert: N\u00f5mme United odds \u2191 +18.4% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "N\u00f5mme United",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Market drift alert: N\u00f5mme United odds \u2191 +18.4% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 4.5,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +18.4%",
"open_odds": 3.8,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "N\u00f5mme United",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 67,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/11",
"current_odds": 4.5,
"move_display": "\u2191 +18.4%",
"open_odds": 3.8,
"pick_team": "N\u00f5mme United",
"steam_score": 67,
"steam_team_name": "N\u00f5mme United",
"steam_tier": "A"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 10.1,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "flora-tallinn",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Flora Tallinn",
"away_team_id": 687,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/687.webp",
"away_team_name": "Flora Tallinn",
"away_team_public_id": "3LqFu9ksxVCKY1",
"away_team_slug": "flora-tallinn",
"country_code": "EE",
"country_display_name": "Estonia",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ee.svg",
"country_id": 50,
"country_name": "Estonia",
"fixture_id": 1513631,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Estonia",
"home_team_display_name": "N\u00f5mme United",
"home_team_id": 10059,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/10059.webp",
"home_team_name": "N\u00f5mme United",
"home_team_public_id": "4KCWCtUq9NVLgs",
"home_team_slug": "nomme-united",
"ht.home_team_slug": "nomme-united",
"league_country": "Estonia",
"league_country_display": "Estonia",
"league_display_name": "Meistriliiga",
"league_id": 329,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/329.webp",
"league_name": "Meistriliiga",
"league_public_id": "2ZZZJNru7ang9D",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-12 14:00:00",
"public_id": "1W0r9D0bSphhJp",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Tallinn",
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 7.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.5087,
"best_odd": 1.52,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0516,
"ev": -0.1522,
"implied_prob": 0.6094,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.6094,
"draw": 0.2027,
"home": 0.1879
},
"model_prob": 0.5079,
"p_final": 0.5578
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1772,
"best_odd": 4.57,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0135,
"ev": -0.0121,
"implied_prob": 0.2027,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.6094,
"draw": 0.2027,
"home": 0.1879
},
"model_prob": 0.2787,
"p_final": 0.2162
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.1924,
"best_odd": 4.93,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0049,
"ev": -0.0495,
"implied_prob": 0.1879,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.6094,
"draw": 0.2027,
"home": 0.1879
},
"model_prob": 0.2134,
"p_final": 0.1928
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 1.52,
"edge": -0.15,
"ev": -0.228,
"implied_prob": 0.6579,
"model_prob": 0.5079
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 4.57,
"edge": 0.0599,
"ev": 0.2738,
"implied_prob": 0.2188,
"model_prob": 0.2787
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 4.93,
"edge": 0.0105,
"ev": 0.0518,
"implied_prob": 0.2028,
"model_prob": 0.2134
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1411,
"alpha_yes": 0.194,
"best_no_odd": 2.9,
"best_yes_odd": 1.5,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.1437,
"edge_yes": -0.1437,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.4036,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0275,
"ev_yes": -0.226,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1213,
"implied_no": 0.3403,
"implied_yes": 0.6597,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1411,
"best_odd": 2.7,
"edge": 0.0203,
"ev": -0.0275,
"implied_prob": 0.3399,
"model_prob": 0.484,
"p_final": 0.3602
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.194,
"best_odd": 1.39,
"edge": -0.028,
"ev": -0.1213,
"implied_prob": 0.6601,
"model_prob": 0.516,
"p_final": 0.6322
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.3602,
"p_final_yes": 0.6322,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1661,
"alpha_under": 0.08,
"best_over_odd": 1.4,
"best_under_odd": 3.3,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.285,
"consensus_under_odd": 3.015,
"edge_over": -0.2152,
"edge_under": 0.2152,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.3252,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1458,
"ev_under": 0.7094,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0461,
"implied_over": 0.6972,
"implied_over_mf": 0.7012,
"implied_under": 0.3028,
"implied_under_mf": 0.2988,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1661,
"best_odd": 1.285,
"edge": -0.0364,
"ev": -0.1458,
"implied_prob": 0.7012,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6648
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 3.015,
"edge": 0.0175,
"ev": -0.0461,
"implied_prob": 0.2988,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3164
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.6648,
"p_final_under": 0.3164,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.7094,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.7094,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.7094,
"confidence": 7.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 7.7,
"score_v1_legacy": 7.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.2,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 7.7,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.2
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "lean",
"final_decision": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Flora Tallinn)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.7094,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.7094,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 7.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.2,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 52,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Flora Tallinn at 50.8%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 60.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Flora Tallinn as the value side (50.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Flora Tallinn",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"edge_low"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +70.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +70.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 7.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +70.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "65 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+70.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Flora Tallinn).",
"Decision strength: 7.7/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 65,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1522,
"consensus_ev_display": "-15.2%",
"consensus_odds": 1.52,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.6094,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5079,
"raw_edge_display": "-10.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -10.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6578947368421053,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.228,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-22.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 20.0,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.64"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.64
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
"scoring_type": "neutral",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.516,
"draw_prob": 0.2787,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.5079,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.64
},
"type": "neutral",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.52,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0516,
"ev": -0.1522,
"implied_prob": 0.6094,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.5079,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Flora Tallinn"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1411,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.7,
"edge": 0.0203,
"market_prob": 0.3399,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.484,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1411,
"best_odd": 2.7,
"edge": 0.0203,
"ev": -0.0275,
"implied_prob": 0.3399,
"model_prob": 0.484,
"p_final": 0.3602
},
"p_final": 0.3602,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0275,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.194,
"best_odd": 1.39,
"edge": -0.028,
"ev": -0.1213,
"implied_prob": 0.6601,
"model_prob": 0.516,
"p_final": 0.6322
}
},
"edge": 0.1437,
"ev": 0.4036,
"implied_prob": 0.3403,
"model_prob": 0.484,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 3.015,
"edge": 0.0175,
"market_prob": 0.2988,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1661,
"best_odd": 1.285,
"edge": -0.0364,
"ev": -0.1458,
"implied_prob": 0.7012,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6648
},
"p_final": 0.3164,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0461,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 3.015,
"edge": 0.0175,
"ev": -0.0461,
"implied_prob": 0.2988,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3164
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.2152,
"ev": 0.7094,
"implied_prob": 0.3028,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1513631,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.7094,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.5079,
"draw": 0.2787,
"home": 0.2134
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.4036,
"implied_prob": 0.3403,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.484,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.4036,
"implied_prob": 0.3403,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.484,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Flora Tallinn",
"home": "N\u00f5mme United"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.367469,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.7094,
"implied_prob": 0.3028,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1522,
"consensus_ev_display": "-15.2%",
"consensus_odds": 1.52,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.6094,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5079,
"raw_edge_display": "-10.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -10.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6578947368421053,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.228,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-22.8%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1513631,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-12T13:56:18.772736+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
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Langgan Sekarang
Meistriliiga — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Levadia Tallinn | 27 | 21 | 5 | 1 | 68 |
| 2 | Flora Tallinn | 28 | 17 | 1 | 10 | 52 |
| 3 | Kalju Nõmme | 28 | 14 | 5 | 9 | 47 |
| 4 | Paide | 27 | 13 | 6 | 8 | 45 |
| 5 | Tammeka | 27 | 14 | 2 | 11 | 44 |
| 6 | Laagri | 28 | 11 | 1 | 16 | 34 |
| 7 | Vaprus | 27 | 10 | 4 | 13 | 34 |
| 8 | Nõmme United | 28 | 9 | 1 | 18 | 28 |
| 9 | Kuressaare | 28 | 8 | 4 | 16 | 28 |
| 10 | Trans Narva | 28 | 5 | 3 | 20 | 18 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Levadia Tallinn | 27 | 74 | 20 | +54 | 68 |
| 2 | Flora Tallinn | 28 | 56 | 37 | +19 | 52 |
| 3 | Kalju Nõmme | 28 | 49 | 26 | +23 | 47 |
| 4 | Nõmme United | 28 | 46 | 65 | -19 | 28 |
| 5 | Paide | 27 | 43 | 35 | +8 | 45 |
| 6 | Laagri | 28 | 40 | 47 | -7 | 34 |
| 7 | Vaprus | 27 | 37 | 52 | -15 | 34 |
| 8 | Tammeka | 27 | 36 | 38 | -2 | 44 |
| 9 | Kuressaare | 28 | 31 | 49 | -18 | 28 |
| 10 | Trans Narva | 28 | 21 | 64 | -43 | 18 |
