Statistik / Bola Sepak / Argentina. Liga Simpanan Argentina / Banfield Reserves vs River Plate Reserves

Banfield Reserves vs River Plate Reserves Statistics & Analysis

Jun 17, 2026 - 18:00
0 1.16
1 1.44
xG Accuracy: 64%
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Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa

Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.

  • Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
  • Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Tidak ✖ tak betul
  • 1X2 River Plate Reserves River Plate Reserves ✔ Betul
  • Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 0-1 ✔ Betul

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 07, 2026 · 13:21 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3177603

Closing Odds 2.28
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result River Plate Reserves win · Banfield Reserves 0–1 River Plate Reserves
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Intelijen pasaran

Bacaan selepas pilihan utama: bagaimana suapan penutup berprioriti bergerak berbanding model.

Ringkasan pasaran

Pasaran kekal stabil menjelang sepakan. Tiada anjakan implied ketara antara PRE30 dan PRE1 pada snapshot berprioriti.

Walaupun pergerakan lewat kecil, model masih menilai River Plate Reserves (1X2),Lebih 2.5 gol jauh melebihi implied snapshot penutupan — bacaan statik "model vs harga", bukan kejaran steam.

Model masih melebihi implied penutupan pada Lebih 2.5 gol kira-kira 6.6 mata peratus — isyarat salah harga paling jelas pada halaman ini.

Model vs implied penutup

Pasaran Model % Implied penutup % Jurang (pp)
Banfield Reserves (1X2) 28.8 30.3 -1.5
Lukis (1X2) 29.3 29.6 -0.3
River Plate Reserves (1X2) 41.9 40.1 +1.7
Lebih 2.5 gol 48.2 41.6 +6.6
Bawah 2.5 gol 51.8 58.4 -6.6
Apa maksudnya

Secara ringkas: model kira-kira 48.2% pada Lebih 2.5 gol, manakala snapshot penutup menunjukkan kira-kira 41.6%. Bezanya — kira-kira 6.6 mata peratus — ialah jurang model-vs-pasaran terbesar yang ditonjolkan di halaman ini.

Ringkas: "implied penutup" ialah kebarangkalian terbit daripada odds akhir yang ditangkap (selepas de-vig ringkas). "Jurang (pp)" = peratus model tolak implied tersebut, dalam mata peratus (pp).

Pergerakan garisan menjelang sepakan mula

Satu buku prioriti setiap snapshot (bukan semua). Laluan tangkapan: PRE30 → PRE1 · Buku: Pinnacle

Dalam kurungan pada lajur: Penutup = snapshot pertama tersedia ikut PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Awal = pertama dalam PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 yang berbeza daripada Penutup.

Odds terperinci dilipat di bawah — pergerakan implied (de-vig) boleh diabaikan.

Lihat jadual penuh baris demi baris
Pasaran Awal (PRE30) Penutup (PRE1) Δ tersirat (pp)
Banfield Reserves (1X2) 2.94 3.02 -0.1
Lukis (1X2) 3.01 3.09 -0.1
River Plate Reserves (1X2) 2.24 2.28 +0.2
Lebih 2.5 gol 2.22 2.22 0.0
Bawah 2.5 gol 1.58 1.58 0.0

Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.

View technical JSON
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          "outcome": "away"
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        {
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        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 5.61,
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        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -5.61,
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          "market_prob": 51.61,
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          "outcome": "no"
        }
      ],
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        "fair_prob_pct": 41.88,
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        "hero_team_name": "River Plate Reserves",
        "market_prob_pct": 40.12,
        "status": "market_efficient",
        "steam_team_name": "Banfield Reserves"
      },
      "fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
      "fair_vs_market": {
        "comparison_available": true,
        "comparison_disabled": false,
        "degraded_note": "",
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          "edge_status": "market_efficient",
          "max_gap_pp": 1.76,
          "suppress_hero": false,
          "suppress_value_language": false
        },
        "divergence_label": "",
        "divergence_level": "aligned",
        "divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
        "divergence_note": "",
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          "forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
          "headline": "Balanced match",
          "market_agreement_label": "Strong",
          "market_prob_pct": 40.1,
          "model_prob_pct": 41.9,
          "outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
          "paragraphs": [],
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          "reliability_icon": "\u2713",
          "reliability_tier": "reliable",
          "summary": "The model and market both lean River Plate Reserves, but neither indicates a dominant favourite. Draw and Draw remain plausible \u2014 this is a relatively open match.",
          "tier": "balanced",
          "title": "Prediction Assessment",
          "validation_label": "Pass"
        },
        "forecast_certainty": {
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          "tier": "low",
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        "forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
        "has_market_probs": true,
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        "hero_label": "River Plate Reserves",
        "hero_side": "away",
        "market_activity": "Banfield Reserves odds shortened \u2193 -14.3%.",
        "market_agreement": "strong",
        "market_agreement_label": "Strong",
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          "gap_tier": "aligned",
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          "note": "Buying interest on Banfield Reserves \u2014 odds shortened by 14.3%.",
          "paragraphs": [
            "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
            "However, recent buying interest has been on Banfield Reserves, with odds shortening by 14.3%.",
            "Buying interest on Banfield Reserves \u2014 odds shortened by 14.3%."
          ],
          "quiet_market": false,
          "title": "Market Assessment"
        },
        "market_narrative": {
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            "Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
            "At the same time, Banfield Reserves has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 14.3%.",
            "Broad sportsbook alignment (11/12) supports the current market view on Banfield Reserves."
          ],
          "title": "Current Market Narrative"
        },
        "max_gap_pp": 1.76,
        "model_validation": {
          "score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
          "status": "pass"
        },
        "model_validation_label": "Pass",
        "outcome_separation": {
          "breakdown": [
            "No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
            "Favourite exceeds second outcome by 12.6 pp (at 41.9%)."
          ],
          "lead_gap_pp": 12.6,
          "max_prob_pct": 41.9,
          "note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
          "tier": "medium",
          "tier_label": "Medium"
        },
        "outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
        "rows": [
          {
            "edge_pp": -1.48,
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            "is_hero": false,
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            "side": "home"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": -0.29,
            "fair_prob_pct": 29.31,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Draw",
            "market_prob_pct": 29.6,
            "side": "draw"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": 1.76,
            "fair_prob_pct": 41.88,
            "is_hero": true,
            "label": "River Plate Reserves",
            "market_prob_pct": 40.12,
            "side": "away"
          }
        ],
        "status": "market_efficient",
        "status_label": "Market Efficient",
        "steam_note": "Buying interest on Banfield Reserves \u2014 odds shortened by 14.3%.",
        "unavailable_note": ""
      },
      "interpretation": {
        "has_conflict": true,
        "paragraphs": [
          "The betting market strongly prefers River Plate Reserves (40.1%).",
          "However, Banfield Reserves has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -14.3%, 11/12).",
          "This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 River Plate Reserves, Market \u2192 River Plate Reserves, Recent sharp money \u2192 Banfield Reserves.",
          "Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
        ],
        "show": true,
        "title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
      },
      "lifecycle": {
        "closing_implied_pct": 43.86,
        "closing_odds": 2.28,
        "clv_pending": true,
        "clv_pp": 0.0,
        "clv_status": "pending",
        "context": "match",
        "current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
        "current_stage_detail": "",
        "current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
        "entry_implied_pct": 43.86,
        "entry_odds": 2.28,
        "model_validation_label": "Pass",
        "model_validation_status": "pass",
        "stages": [
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "forecast_generated",
            "label": "Prediction Generated",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "market_detected",
            "label": "Market Compared",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "model_validated",
            "label": "Validation Passed",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "PRE1",
            "id": "closing_recorded",
            "label": "Closing Recorded",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "clv_evaluated",
            "label": "CLV Evaluated",
            "status": "pending"
          }
        ]
      },
      "market_move_intelligence": {
        "books_reacting": 11,
        "books_total": 12,
        "breadth_display": "11/12",
        "clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
        "clv_status": "evaluated",
        "current_odds": 3.0,
        "move_context": "Largest move today",
        "move_display": "\u2193 -14.3%",
        "move_pct_abs": 14.3,
        "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
        "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 59h 48m",
        "narrative_paragraphs": [
          "Multi-book steam on Banfield Reserves (14.3%, 11/12) \u2014 aligned shortening, not a single-book blip.",
          "Sharp sportsbooks led a meaningful repricing with broad market follow-through."
        ],
        "narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
        "odds_path": {
          "display": "4.06 \u2192 2.80 \u2192 3.00",
          "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
          "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 59h 48m",
          "pick_team": "Banfield Reserves",
          "points": [
            {
              "label_key": "open",
              "value": "4.06"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "extreme",
              "value": "2.80"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "current",
              "value": "3.00"
            }
          ],
          "sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 18.7,15.4 37.3,18.0 56.0,16.1",
          "sparkline_trend": "down",
          "sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop"
        },
        "open_odds": 3.5,
        "page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: Banfield Reserves \u2193 -14.3% market move detected",
        "phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
        "phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
        "pick_team": "Banfield Reserves",
        "ref_book": "Bet365",
        "seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: Banfield Reserves \u2193 -14.3% market move detected",
        "sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
        "show": true,
        "signal_badge_class": "confirm",
        "signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc8",
        "signal_key": "market_steam",
        "signal_label": "Steam",
        "steam_score": 76,
        "steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
        "steam_tier": "A+",
        "title": "Market Move Intelligence"
      },
      "market_overview": {
        "breadth_display": "11/12",
        "current_odds": 3.0,
        "move_display": "\u2193 -14.3%",
        "open_odds": 3.5,
        "pick_team": "Banfield Reserves",
        "steam_score": 76,
        "steam_team_name": "Banfield Reserves",
        "steam_tier": "A+"
      },
      "premium_teaser": {
        "current_divergence_pp": 1.8,
        "divergence_label": "Current divergence",
        "title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
        "unlock_items": [
          "Historical similar matches",
          "Closing odds analysis",
          "CLV tracking",
          "Sharp money signals",
          "Market efficiency rating",
          "Historical model vs market results"
        ],
        "unlock_label": "Unlock"
      },
      "show": true
    },
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 18695,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/18695.webp",
      "away_team_name": "River Plate Reserves",
      "country_code": "AR",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/ar.svg",
      "country_name": "Argentina",
      "fixture_id": 1512473,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_country": "Argentina",
      "home_team_id": 18679,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/18679.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Banfield Reserves",
      "league_country": "Argentina",
      "league_id": 906,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/906.webp",
      "league_name": "Liga Simpanan Argentina",
      "league_season": 2026,
      "match_date": "2026-06-17 18:00:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS",
      "venue_city": null,
      "venue_name": null
    },
    "match_decision": {
      "confidence": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.5
      },
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.4383,
            "best_odd": 2.28,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0076,
            "ev": -0.0681,
            "implied_prob": 0.4012,
            "model_prob": 0.4185,
            "p_final": 0.4087
          },
          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.2988,
            "best_odd": 3.09,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0008,
            "ev": -0.0879,
            "implied_prob": 0.296,
            "model_prob": 0.2933,
            "p_final": 0.2952
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.2934,
            "best_odd": 3.02,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0043,
            "ev": -0.0983,
            "implied_prob": 0.3029,
            "model_prob": 0.2882,
            "p_final": 0.2986
          }
        },
        "btts": {
          "best_no_odd": 1.85,
          "best_yes_odd": 1.95,
          "edge_no": -0.0561,
          "edge_yes": 0.0561,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_no": -0.149,
          "ev_yes": 0.053,
          "implied_no": 0.5161,
          "implied_yes": 0.4839,
          "n_bookmakers": 6,
          "reliability": "medium"
        },
        "ou25": {
          "best_over_odd": 2.5,
          "best_under_odd": 1.6,
          "edge_over": 0.065,
          "edge_under": -0.065,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_over": 0.205,
          "ev_under": -0.1712,
          "implied_over": 0.417,
          "implied_under": 0.583,
          "n_bookmakers": 10,
          "reliability": "medium"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 2.6,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.2.0"
      },
      "balanced_alternative": null,
      "best_tracked_ev": 0.205,
      "confidence": 6.5,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
          "pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Primary line identified (+1.0)",
          "Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
          "Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.5
      },
      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": false,
        "1x2_open_contest": true,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
      },
      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
      },
      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
        "scoring_type": "balanced",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.54,
          "draw_prob": 0.2933,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.4185,
          "over_prob": 0.482,
          "total_xg": 2.6,
          "under_prob": 0.518,
          "xg_diff": 0.28
        },
        "type": "balanced",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
      },
      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "decision": "no_bet",
          "edge": 0.0076,
          "ev": -0.0681,
          "implied_prob": 0.4012,
          "max_ev_side": "away",
          "model_prob": 0.4185,
          "side": "away",
          "side_label": "River Plate Reserves"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.0561,
          "ev": 0.053,
          "implied_prob": 0.4839,
          "model_prob": 0.54,
          "side": "yes",
          "value_side": "yes"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.065,
          "ev": 0.205,
          "implied_prob": 0.417,
          "model_prob": 0.482,
          "side": "over",
          "value_side": "over"
        }
      },
      "match_id": 1512473,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "bet",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": true,
        "code": "clear_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.205,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 1.0,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.4185,
        "draw": 0.2933,
        "home": 0.2882
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "no_ev_1x2"
      ],
      "secondary_pick": {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.053,
        "implied_prob": 0.4839,
        "market": "btts",
        "model_prob": 0.54,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "secondary",
        "side": "yes",
        "slot": "secondary"
      },
      "secondary_picks": [
        {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "ev": 0.053,
          "implied_prob": 0.4839,
          "market": "btts",
          "model_prob": 0.54,
          "not_dominant": false,
          "risk_band": "strong",
          "risk_tier": "secondary",
          "side": "yes",
          "slot": "secondary"
        }
      ],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "River Plate Reserves",
        "home": "Banfield Reserves"
      },
      "top_pick": {
        "composite_score": 0.069167,
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.205,
        "implied_prob": 0.417,
        "market": "ou_2_5",
        "model_prob": 0.482,
        "not_dominant": true,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "medium",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "over",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
      },
      "valid_markets_count": 2
    }
  },
  "fixture_id": 1512473,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-06-17T18:01:34.170640+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}

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Liga Simpanan Argentina Liga Simpanan Argentina — Kedudukan
# PASUKAN P M S K Mata
1 Vélez Sársfield Reserves 20 15 2 3 47
2 Boca Juniors Res. 20 12 3 5 39
3 Racing Club Reserves 21 11 6 4 39
4 River Plate Reserves 21 11 4 6 37
5 Independiente Res. 19 11 3 5 36
6 Lanús Res. 19 11 2 6 35
7 Newell's Old Boys Res. 19 10 4 5 34
8 Quilmes 2 18 10 3 5 33
9 Defensa y Justicia Res. 18 9 5 4 32
10 Atlético Tucumán Reserves 19 9 3 7 30
11 Unión Santa Fe Reserves 18 7 8 3 29
12 Estudiantes La Plata Res. 18 8 4 6 28
13 Argentinos Juniors Reserves 18 7 7 4 28
14 Belgrano Córdoba Res. 18 8 3 7 27
15 Talleres Córdoba Reserves 18 7 5 6 26
16 Huracán Res. 18 7 5 6 26
17 Rosario Central Reserves 18 7 5 6 26
18 Platense Res. 18 7 5 6 26
19 Deportivo Riestra Res. 18 7 4 7 25
20 Independiente Rivadavia Res. 18 7 3 8 24
21 Instituto Res. 18 5 9 4 24
22 San Lorenzo Reserves 18 6 6 6 24
23 Gimnasia La Plata Res. 18 6 5 7 23
24 Gimnasia Mendoza 2 18 6 5 7 23
25 Banfield Reserves 18 6 5 7 23
26 Ferro 2 18 6 4 8 22
27 Central Córdoba SdE Res. 18 5 4 9 19
28 Colón Res. 18 5 3 10 18
29 Aldosivi Reserves 18 5 3 10 18
30 Barracas Central Res. 18 4 5 9 17
31 Sarmiento Reserves 18 4 4 10 16
32 Tigre Reserves 18 4 4 10 16
33 Godoy Cruz Res. 18 4 3 11 15
34 Atlético Rafaela 2 18 3 3 12 12
35 Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2 18 2 5 11 11
36 San Martín San Juan Reserves 18 2 2 14 8
# PASUKAN P J B +/- Mata
1 Vélez Sársfield Reserves 20 42 13 +29 47
2 Lanús Res. 19 40 27 +13 35
3 Independiente Res. 19 38 19 +19 36
4 Defensa y Justicia Res. 18 38 24 +14 32
5 Boca Juniors Res. 20 36 12 +24 39
6 Racing Club Reserves 21 33 26 +7 39
7 River Plate Reserves 21 29 20 +9 37
8 Newell's Old Boys Res. 19 27 18 +9 34
9 Talleres Córdoba Reserves 18 27 21 +6 26
10 Belgrano Córdoba Res. 18 27 29 -2 27
11 Atlético Tucumán Reserves 19 26 28 -2 30
12 Estudiantes La Plata Res. 18 25 16 +9 28
13 Deportivo Riestra Res. 18 25 18 +7 25
14 Rosario Central Reserves 18 25 22 +3 26
15 Argentinos Juniors Reserves 18 24 18 +6 28
16 Huracán Res. 18 23 17 +6 26
17 Unión Santa Fe Reserves 18 23 19 +4 29
18 Independiente Rivadavia Res. 18 23 23 0 24
19 San Lorenzo Reserves 18 22 24 -2 24
20 Central Córdoba SdE Res. 18 21 33 -12 19
21 Atlético Rafaela 2 18 21 36 -15 12
22 Quilmes 2 18 20 12 +8 33
23 Instituto Res. 18 20 21 -1 24
24 Ferro 2 18 20 23 -3 22
25 Godoy Cruz Res. 18 20 30 -10 15
26 Gimnasia La Plata Res. 18 19 17 +2 23
27 Platense Res. 18 17 20 -3 26
28 Aldosivi Reserves 18 17 28 -11 18
29 Gimnasia Mendoza 2 18 16 19 -3 23
30 Sarmiento Reserves 18 16 26 -10 16
31 San Martín San Juan Reserves 18 16 59 -43 8
32 Colón Res. 18 15 23 -8 18
33 Tigre Reserves 18 15 25 -10 16
34 Banfield Reserves 18 14 18 -4 23
35 Barracas Central Res. 18 11 24 -13 17
36 Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2 18 9 32 -23 11