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Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Ya ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Falu BS Lukis ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-2 ✖ tak betul
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.74
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Draw · Falu BS 2–2 Täby
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "d37d16ea1d1e934a68fcc285d25adacffe9c8727e5c450737f28f73d7bf0076f",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.21,
"away_win_prob": 0.3103,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.457,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.543,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2951,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 3.22,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.39,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.53,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.39,
"home_win_prob": 0.3946,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : Falu BS or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Falu BS"
},
"away_xg": 1.21,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Falu BS",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.1217,
"edge_gap": 0.0846,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.5167,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 31.0,
"draw": 29.5,
"home": 39.5
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"odd": 1.74
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 1.74,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"display_market": "Falu BS Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 1.94,
"market_odds": 1.74,
"model_odds": 2.53,
"overround": 11.2,
"prob_edge": -17.9,
"value_pct": -31.2,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
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"away_failed_to_score": 5,
"away_played": 20,
"away_score_rate": 70.2,
"home_clean_sheet": 7,
"home_failed_to_score": 3,
"home_played": 20,
"home_score_rate": 75.1,
"no_prob": 45.7,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.3,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.3
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.21,
"home_expected": 1.39,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.3
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.0
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.7
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.6
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Falu BS or Draw",
"prob": 69.0
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Falu BS or T\u00e4by",
"prob": 70.5
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or T\u00e4by",
"prob": 60.5
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Falu BS or T\u00e4by",
"pick_prob": 70.5
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 31.0,
"draw_pct": 29.5,
"home_pct": 39.5,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Falu BS"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.8,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.6,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"edge": 15.3,
"implied_prob": 26.9,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "T\u00e4by Win",
"model_prob": 31.0,
"odds": 3.72
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "T\u00e4by",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 24.17,
"draw": 24.17,
"home": 51.67
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Marathonbet",
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-13 13:57:11",
"early_bookmaker": "Marathonbet",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-13 13:31:04",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Falu BS",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 51.67,
"gap_pp": -12.17,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 39.49
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 24.17,
"gap_pp": 5.31,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.47
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 24.17,
"gap_pp": 6.86,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 31.03
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 58.31,
"gap_pp": -10.11,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 41.69,
"gap_pp": 10.11,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 59.42,
"gap_pp": -5.12,
"kind": "btts_y",
"model_pct": 54.3
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 40.58,
"gap_pp": 5.12,
"kind": "btts_n",
"model_pct": 45.7
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 1.74,
"early": 1.74,
"implied_closing_pct": 51.67,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 51.67,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.72,
"early": 3.72,
"implied_closing_pct": 24.17,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 24.17,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 3.72,
"early": 3.72,
"implied_closing_pct": 24.17,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 24.17,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.58,
"early": 1.58,
"implied_closing_pct": 58.31,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 58.31,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.21,
"early": 2.21,
"implied_closing_pct": 41.69,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 41.69,
"kind": "ou_u"
},
{
"closing": 1.53,
"early": 1.53,
"implied_closing_pct": 59.42,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 59.42,
"kind": "btts_y"
},
{
"closing": 2.24,
"early": 2.24,
"implied_closing_pct": 40.58,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 40.58,
"kind": "btts_n"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 10.1,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -1.6,
"ev": -0.1125,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 7.1,
"market_prob": 0.1408,
"market_prob_pct": 14.1,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.3
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.0
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.7
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.6
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.39,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.153,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.2,
"edge": 0.0153,
"edge_pp": 1.5,
"market_prob": 0.418,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2104,
"best_odd": 1.58,
"edge": -0.021,
"ev": -0.1137,
"implied_prob": 0.582,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.561
},
"p_final": 0.4333,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 10.0,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1396,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0468,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.153,
"best_odd": 2.2,
"edge": 0.0153,
"ev": -0.0468,
"implied_prob": 0.418,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4333
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2288,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -22.9,
"text": "-22.9%"
},
"ev_under": 0.1448,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 14.5,
"text": "+14.5%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.1448,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10280.32,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1662,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.24,
"edge": 0.0085,
"edge_pp": 0.9,
"market_prob": 0.4058,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.457,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1662,
"best_odd": 2.24,
"edge": 0.0085,
"ev": -0.0719,
"implied_prob": 0.4058,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.4143
},
"p_final": 0.4143,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.1,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0237,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0719,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2285,
"best_odd": 1.53,
"edge": -0.0117,
"ev": -0.1088,
"implied_prob": 0.5942,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.5825
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0328,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 3.3,
"text": "+3.3%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.1421,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -14.2,
"text": "-14.2%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0328,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no_prob": 45.7,
"sort_key": 10029.52,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.3
},
{
"authority_action": "lean",
"authority_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"consensus_odds": 1.74,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.2049,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -20.5,
"text": "-20.5%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.5167,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0323,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -3.2,
"text": "-3.2%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "-12.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -12.2,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3129,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-31.3%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Falu BS",
"sort_key": 1791.925,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 12.2,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -12.21,
"hero_label": "Falu BS",
"market_prob_pct": 51.7,
"market_team": "Falu BS",
"model_prob_pct": 39.5,
"model_team": "Falu BS",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 12.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Falu BS)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 12.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Falu BS)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1448,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1544,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.6,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 49,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Falu BS at 39.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 51.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Falu BS as the value side (39.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 12.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Falu BS",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +14.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +14.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +14.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "62 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "49 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+14.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Falu BS).",
"Decision strength: 5.6/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 62,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2049,
"consensus_ev_display": "-20.5%",
"consensus_odds": 1.74,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5167,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "-12.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -12.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5747126436781609,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3129,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-31.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.18"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.18
}
}
},
"bet_status": "lean",
"books_breadth_display": "3/4",
"breadth_ratio": 0.75,
"evidence": {
"score": 55,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (12 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 18.9,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 7.5,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 62,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 12.21,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 12.21,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.21,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.39,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.39,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.39 \u00b7 Away xG 1.21 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +3%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Falu BS",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 49,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 12.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Falu BS)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 12.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Falu BS)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1448,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1544,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.6,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 49,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Falu BS at 39.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 51.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Falu BS as the value side (39.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 12.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Falu BS",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +14.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +14.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +14.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "62 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "49 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+14.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Falu BS).",
"Decision strength: 5.6/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 62,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2049,
"consensus_ev_display": "-20.5%",
"consensus_odds": 1.74,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5167,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "-12.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -12.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5747126436781609,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3129,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-31.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.18"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.18
}
}
},
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Falu BS 1.39 xG vs T\u00e4by 1.21 \u2192 Falu BS 39.5%",
"Market: Falu BS ~51.7% implied",
"Market Steam: Falu BS +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Falu BS with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -12.21,
"fair_prob": 39.46,
"label": "Falu BS",
"market_prob": 51.67,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.34,
"fair_prob": 29.51,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 24.17,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.86,
"fair_prob": 31.03,
"label": "T\u00e4by",
"market_prob": 24.17,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.69,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 57.89,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.69,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 42.11,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.84,
"fair_prob": 54.3,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 59.14,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.84,
"fair_prob": 45.7,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 40.86,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -12.21,
"fair_prob_pct": 39.46,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Falu BS",
"market_prob_pct": 51.67,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Falu BS"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Falu BS\u0027s win probability at 51.7%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 39.5%, a difference of 12.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 12.21,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Falu BS",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 51.7,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-12.2 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -12.2,
"model_prob_pct": 39.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-12.2 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -12.2,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 62,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "Falu BS \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 49,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Falu BS 1.39 xG vs T\u00e4by 1.21 \u2192 Falu BS 39.5%",
"Market: Falu BS ~51.7% implied",
"Market Steam: Falu BS +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Falu BS with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -12.21,
"hero_label": "Falu BS",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "Current market behavior suggests broad agreement that Falu BS is the dominant side.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Falu BS than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "The market is materially more optimistic about Falu BS than the current fair estimate.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Falu BS than the current fair estimate.",
"Current market behavior suggests broad agreement that Falu BS is the dominant side."
],
"quiet_market": true,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Falu BS more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"No meaningful directional movement has emerged, and pricing remains stable across tracked sportsbooks.",
"The market materially disagrees with the model on Falu BS (pricing gap 12.2 pp). The market may be pricing squad quality, tournament context, or lineup strength beyond the Elo framework."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 12.21,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 8.4 pp (at 39.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 8.4,
"max_prob_pct": 39.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Falu BS",
"largest_gap_pp": -12.2,
"lead": "The closing market prices Falu BS higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 12.2,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -12.21,
"edge_pp": -12.21,
"fair_prob_pct": 39.46,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Falu BS",
"market_prob_pct": 51.67,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 5.34,
"edge_pp": 5.34,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.51,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 24.17,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 6.86,
"edge_pp": 6.86,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.03,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "T\u00e4by",
"market_prob_pct": 24.17,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "The market is materially more optimistic about Falu BS than the current fair estimate.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Falu BS (51.7%).",
"Falu BS \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 57.47,
"closing_odds": 1.74,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 57.47,
"entry_odds": 1.74,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE5",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "3/4",
"current_odds": 1.82,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 1.82,
"pick_team": "Falu BS",
"steam_score": 20,
"steam_team_name": "Falu BS",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 12.2,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "taby",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "T\u00e4by",
"away_team_id": 11663,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/11663.webp",
"away_team_name": "T\u00e4by",
"away_team_public_id": "5ydXNVDu2HSe4D",
"away_team_slug": "taby",
"country_code": "SE",
"country_display_name": "Sweden",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/se.svg",
"country_id": 148,
"country_name": "Sweden",
"fixture_id": 1510851,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Sweden",
"home_team_display_name": "Falu BS",
"home_team_id": 22932,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/22932.webp",
"home_team_name": "Falu BS",
"home_team_public_id": "3EowwfO7k4Fwtp",
"home_team_slug": "falu-bs",
"ht.home_team_slug": "falu-bs",
"league_country": "Sweden",
"league_country_display": "Sweden",
"league_display_name": "Divisyen 2 - Norra Svealand",
"league_id": 593,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/593.webp",
"league_name": "Divisyen 2 - Norra Svealand",
"league_public_id": "4SIWEB2aTNyEbS",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-13 14:00:00",
"public_id": "3OvGls7WOHjZ3i",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2691,
"best_odd": 3.72,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0185,
"ev": -0.0323,
"implied_prob": 0.2417,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2417,
"draw": 0.2417,
"home": 0.5167
},
"model_prob": 0.3103,
"p_final": 0.2601
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2761,
"best_odd": 3.72,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0147,
"ev": -0.0465,
"implied_prob": 0.2417,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2417,
"draw": 0.2417,
"home": 0.5167
},
"model_prob": 0.2947,
"p_final": 0.2563
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4904,
"best_odd": 1.74,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0597,
"ev": -0.2049,
"implied_prob": 0.5167,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2417,
"draw": 0.2417,
"home": 0.5167
},
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"p_final": 0.457
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.72,
"edge": 0.0415,
"ev": 0.1544,
"implied_prob": 0.2688,
"model_prob": 0.3103
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.72,
"edge": 0.0259,
"ev": 0.0965,
"implied_prob": 0.2688,
"model_prob": 0.2947
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.74,
"edge": -0.1798,
"ev": -0.3128,
"implied_prob": 0.5747,
"model_prob": 0.3949
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1662,
"alpha_yes": 0.2285,
"best_no_odd": 2.26,
"best_yes_odd": 1.58,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0484,
"edge_yes": -0.0484,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0328,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0719,
"ev_yes": -0.1421,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1088,
"implied_no": 0.4086,
"implied_yes": 0.5914,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1662,
"best_odd": 2.24,
"edge": 0.0085,
"ev": -0.0719,
"implied_prob": 0.4058,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.4143
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2285,
"best_odd": 1.53,
"edge": -0.0117,
"ev": -0.1088,
"implied_prob": 0.5942,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.5825
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"p_final_no": 0.4143,
"p_final_yes": 0.5825,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2104,
"alpha_under": 0.153,
"best_over_odd": 1.6,
"best_under_odd": 2.21,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.58,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.2,
"edge_over": -0.0969,
"edge_under": 0.0969,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2288,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1137,
"ev_under": 0.1448,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0468,
"implied_over": 0.5789,
"implied_over_mf": 0.582,
"implied_under": 0.4211,
"implied_under_mf": 0.418,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2104,
"best_odd": 1.58,
"edge": -0.021,
"ev": -0.1137,
"implied_prob": 0.582,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.561
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.153,
"best_odd": 2.2,
"edge": 0.0153,
"ev": -0.0468,
"implied_prob": 0.418,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4333
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.561,
"p_final_under": 0.4333,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1448,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1544,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1448,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.6,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.6,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.6,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.6
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "lean",
"final_decision": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 12.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Falu BS)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1448,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1544,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.6,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 49,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Falu BS at 39.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 51.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Falu BS as the value side (39.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 12.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Falu BS",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +14.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +14.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +14.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "62 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "49 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+14.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Falu BS).",
"Decision strength: 5.6/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 62,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2049,
"consensus_ev_display": "-20.5%",
"consensus_odds": 1.74,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5167,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "-12.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -12.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5747126436781609,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3129,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-31.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.18"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.18
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.543,
"draw_prob": 0.2947,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3949,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.18
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.74,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0597,
"ev": -0.2049,
"implied_prob": 0.5167,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Falu BS"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1662,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.24,
"edge": 0.0085,
"market_prob": 0.4058,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.457,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1662,
"best_odd": 2.24,
"edge": 0.0085,
"ev": -0.0719,
"implied_prob": 0.4058,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.4143
},
"p_final": 0.4143,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0719,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2285,
"best_odd": 1.53,
"edge": -0.0117,
"ev": -0.1088,
"implied_prob": 0.5942,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.5825
}
},
"edge": 0.0484,
"ev": 0.0328,
"implied_prob": 0.4086,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.153,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.2,
"edge": 0.0153,
"market_prob": 0.418,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2104,
"best_odd": 1.58,
"edge": -0.021,
"ev": -0.1137,
"implied_prob": 0.582,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.561
},
"p_final": 0.4333,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0468,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.153,
"best_odd": 2.2,
"edge": 0.0153,
"ev": -0.0468,
"implied_prob": 0.418,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4333
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0969,
"ev": 0.1448,
"implied_prob": 0.4211,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1510851,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1448,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3103,
"draw": 0.2947,
"home": 0.3949
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "T\u00e4by",
"home": "Falu BS"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.052504,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1448,
"implied_prob": 0.4211,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2049,
"consensus_ev_display": "-20.5%",
"consensus_odds": 1.74,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5167,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "-12.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -12.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5747126436781609,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3129,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-31.3%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1510851,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-13T13:57:13.634692+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Langgan Sekarang
Divisyen 2 - Norra Svealand — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Skiljebo | 23 | 16 | 5 | 2 | 53 |
| 2 | Sunnersta | 23 | 15 | 5 | 3 | 50 |
| 3 | Angby | 22 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 45 |
| 4 | Enskede | 22 | 13 | 4 | 5 | 43 |
| 5 | Falu BS | 22 | 12 | 5 | 5 | 41 |
| 6 | Täby | 23 | 11 | 5 | 7 | 38 |
| 7 | Gute | 23 | 9 | 5 | 9 | 32 |
| 8 | Bollstanäs | 22 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 28 |
| 9 | Franke | 22 | 7 | 4 | 11 | 25 |
| 10 | Lidingö | 23 | 5 | 5 | 13 | 20 |
| 11 | Kungsängen | 22 | 3 | 10 | 9 | 19 |
| 12 | Viggbyholms IK | 23 | 5 | 4 | 14 | 19 |
| 13 | Korsnäs | 23 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 14 |
| 14 | Helges | 23 | 2 | 4 | 17 | 10 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sunnersta | 23 | 57 | 19 | +38 | 50 |
| 2 | Skiljebo | 23 | 54 | 24 | +30 | 53 |
| 3 | Angby | 22 | 46 | 25 | +21 | 45 |
| 4 | Täby | 23 | 39 | 25 | +14 | 38 |
| 5 | Bollstanäs | 22 | 38 | 42 | -4 | 28 |
| 6 | Gute | 23 | 37 | 33 | +4 | 32 |
| 7 | Enskede | 22 | 36 | 23 | +13 | 43 |
| 8 | Falu BS | 22 | 35 | 25 | +10 | 41 |
| 9 | Franke | 22 | 35 | 39 | -4 | 25 |
| 10 | Lidingö | 23 | 26 | 48 | -22 | 20 |
| 11 | Kungsängen | 22 | 24 | 34 | -10 | 19 |
| 12 | Korsnäs | 23 | 24 | 54 | -30 | 14 |
| 13 | Viggbyholms IK | 23 | 23 | 46 | -23 | 19 |
| 14 | Helges | 23 | 20 | 57 | -37 | 10 |
