Statistik / Bola Sepak / Sweden. Ettan - Södra / Hässleholms IF vs AFC Malmo

Hässleholms IF vs AFC Malmo Statistics & Analysis

Sep 16, 2026 - 17:00
2 1.46
0 1.14
xG Accuracy: 63%
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang

Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa

Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.

  • Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 matlamat) ✔ Betul
  • Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Tidak ✔ Betul
  • 1X2 Hässleholms IF Hässleholms IF ✔ Betul
  • Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 2-0 ✔ Betul

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 10, 2026 · 15:33 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7925070

Closing Odds 2.87
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Hässleholms IF win · Hässleholms IF 2–0 AFC Malmo
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Intelijen pasaran

Bacaan selepas pilihan utama: bagaimana suapan penutup berprioriti bergerak berbanding model.

Ringkasan pasaran

Pasaran kekal stabil menjelang sepakan. Tiada anjakan implied ketara antara PRE30 dan PRE1 pada snapshot berprioriti.

Walaupun pergerakan lewat kecil, model masih menilai Lukis (1X2),Bawah 2.5 gol jauh melebihi implied snapshot penutupan — bacaan statik "model vs harga", bukan kejaran steam.

Model masih melebihi implied penutupan pada Bawah 2.5 gol kira-kira 10.9 mata peratus — isyarat salah harga paling jelas pada halaman ini.

Model vs implied penutup

Pasaran Model % Implied penutup % Jurang (pp)
Hässleholms IF (1X2) 42.9 42.0 +0.9
Lukis (1X2) 29.2 25.8 +3.5
AFC Malmo (1X2) 27.9 32.3 -4.4
Lebih 2.5 gol 48.2 59.1 -10.9
Bawah 2.5 gol 51.8 40.9 +10.9
Apa maksudnya

Secara ringkas: model kira-kira 51.8% pada Bawah 2.5 gol, manakala snapshot penutup menunjukkan kira-kira 40.9%. Bezanya — kira-kira 10.9 mata peratus — ialah jurang model-vs-pasaran terbesar yang ditonjolkan di halaman ini.

Ringkas: "implied penutup" ialah kebarangkalian terbit daripada odds akhir yang ditangkap (selepas de-vig ringkas). "Jurang (pp)" = peratus model tolak implied tersebut, dalam mata peratus (pp).

Pergerakan garisan menjelang sepakan mula

Satu buku prioriti setiap snapshot (bukan semua). Laluan tangkapan: PRE30 → PRE1 · Buku: Pinnacle

Dalam kurungan pada lajur: Penutup = snapshot pertama tersedia ikut PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Awal = pertama dalam PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 yang berbeza daripada Penutup.

Odds terperinci dilipat di bawah — pergerakan implied (de-vig) boleh diabaikan.

Lihat jadual penuh baris demi baris
Pasaran Awal (PRE30) Penutup (PRE1) Δ tersirat (pp)
Hässleholms IF (1X2) 2.21 2.21 0.0
Lukis (1X2) 3.6 3.6 0.0
AFC Malmo (1X2) 2.87 2.87 0.0
Lebih 2.5 gol 1.59 1.59 0.0
Bawah 2.5 gol 2.3 2.3 0.0

Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.

View technical JSON
{
  "bundle_version": 1,
  "content_hash": "46af005355f6680d0606a6befa7ab4d480e00bc544b544daf7104e92e5b51cc7",
  "decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
  "facts": {
    "ai_fp": {
      "away_predicted_xg": 1.14,
      "away_win_prob": 0.2793,
      "away_win_prob_posterior": null,
      "bayes_applied": 0,
      "btts_no_prob": 0.462,
      "btts_yes_prob": 0.538,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
      "draw_prob": 0.292,
      "draw_prob_posterior": null,
      "fair_odds_away": 3.58,
      "fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
      "fair_odds_draw": 3.42,
      "fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
      "fair_odds_home": 2.33,
      "fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
      "home_predicted_xg": 1.46,
      "home_win_prob": 0.4286,
      "home_win_prob_posterior": null,
      "over_25_prob": 0.482,
      "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
      "under_25_prob": 0.518
    },
    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "Double chance : H\u00e4ssleholms IF or draw",
      "main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
      "percent_away": "30%",
      "percent_draw": "35%",
      "percent_home": "35%",
      "winner_name": "H\u00e4ssleholms IF"
    },
    "away_xg": 1.14,
    "betting_insight": {
      "bet_label": "H\u00e4ssleholms IF",
      "confidence": null,
      "main_pick_meta": {
        "confidence": "low",
        "display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
        "edge": 0.0093,
        "edge_gap": 0.1367,
        "market": "1X2",
        "market_prob": 0.4195,
        "model_prob": 0.4288,
        "pick_type": "no_strong",
        "probabilities": {
          "away": 27.9,
          "draw": 29.2,
          "home": 42.9
        },
        "reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
        "selection": null,
        "selection_name": null
      },
      "market_comparison": [
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
          "odd": 2.21
        }
      ],
      "risk_color": null,
      "risk_key": null,
      "stacked_market": null,
      "value_bet": {
        "best_odds": 2.21,
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "display_market": "H\u00e4ssleholms IF Win",
        "is_value": false,
        "label": "Home",
        "market_fair_odds": 2.38,
        "market_odds": 2.21,
        "model_odds": 2.33,
        "overround": 7.9,
        "prob_edge": -2.3,
        "value_pct": -5.2,
        "value_rating": "no_value"
      }
    },
    "betting_markets": {
      "btts": {
        "away_clean_sheet": 4,
        "away_failed_to_score": 2,
        "away_played": 20,
        "away_score_rate": 68.0,
        "home_clean_sheet": 6,
        "home_failed_to_score": 3,
        "home_played": 20,
        "home_score_rate": 76.8,
        "no_prob": 46.2,
        "pick": "No",
        "pick_prob": 53.8,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "yes_prob": 53.8
      },
      "correct_score": {
        "away_expected": 1.14,
        "home_expected": 1.46,
        "scores": [
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-1",
            "prob": 12.4
          },
          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-0",
            "prob": 10.8
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-1",
            "prob": 9.0
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 0,
            "label": "0-1",
            "prob": 8.5
          },
          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-0",
            "prob": 7.9
          }
        ],
        "source": "xG"
      },
      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
          {
            "key": "1X",
            "label": "H\u00e4ssleholms IF or Draw",
            "prob": 72.1
          },
          {
            "key": "12",
            "label": "H\u00e4ssleholms IF or AFC Malmo",
            "prob": 70.8
          },
          {
            "key": "X2",
            "label": "Draw or AFC Malmo",
            "prob": 57.1
          }
        ],
        "pick_key": "1X",
        "pick_label": "H\u00e4ssleholms IF or Draw",
        "pick_prob": 72.1
      },
      "match_winner": {
        "away_pct": 27.9,
        "draw_pct": 29.2,
        "home_pct": 42.9,
        "lean_key": "home",
        "lean_label": "H\u00e4ssleholms IF"
      },
      "over_under": {
        "api_hint": null,
        "avg_total": 2.6,
        "away_avg_scored": 2.0,
        "confidence": "low",
        "home_avg_scored": 2.0,
        "over_prob": 48.2,
        "pick": "Under 2.5",
        "pick_prob": 51.8,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "total_expected": 2.6,
        "under_prob": 51.8
      },
      "prob_source": "poisson",
      "value_bet_enhanced": {
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "edge": 5.1,
        "implied_prob": 27.8,
        "is_value": true,
        "label": "Draw",
        "market": "Draw",
        "model_prob": 29.2,
        "odds": 3.6
      }
    },
    "closing_line_bundle": {
      "away_team": "AFC Malmo",
      "closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
        "away": 32.3,
        "draw": 25.75,
        "home": 41.95
      },
      "closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "closing_capture": "PRE1",
      "closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-16 16:59:51",
      "early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "early_capture": "PRE30",
      "early_fetched_at": "2026-09-16 16:31:05",
      "has_data": true,
      "home_team": "H\u00e4ssleholms IF",
      "largest_move_kind": null,
      "max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
      "model_vs_closing": [
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 41.95,
          "gap_pp": 0.93,
          "kind": "1x2_h",
          "model_pct": 42.88
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 25.75,
          "gap_pp": 3.46,
          "kind": "1x2_d",
          "model_pct": 29.21
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 32.3,
          "gap_pp": -4.39,
          "kind": "1x2_a",
          "model_pct": 27.91
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 59.13,
          "gap_pp": -10.93,
          "kind": "ou_o",
          "model_pct": 48.2
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 40.87,
          "gap_pp": 10.93,
          "kind": "ou_u",
          "model_pct": 51.8
        }
      ],
      "movement": [
        {
          "closing": 2.21,
          "early": 2.21,
          "implied_closing_pct": 41.95,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 41.95,
          "kind": "1x2_h"
        },
        {
          "closing": 3.6,
          "early": 3.6,
          "implied_closing_pct": 25.75,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 25.75,
          "kind": "1x2_d"
        },
        {
          "closing": 2.87,
          "early": 2.87,
          "implied_closing_pct": 32.3,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 32.3,
          "kind": "1x2_a"
        },
        {
          "closing": 1.59,
          "early": 1.59,
          "implied_closing_pct": 59.13,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 59.13,
          "kind": "ou_o"
        },
        {
          "closing": 2.3,
          "early": 2.3,
          "implied_closing_pct": 40.87,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 40.87,
          "kind": "ou_u"
        }
      ],
      "movement_negligible": true,
      "same_bookmaker": true,
      "top_value_gap": {
        "gap_pp": 10.9,
        "kind": "ou_u"
      }
    },
    "correct_score_insight": {
      "best_value": null,
      "lean_card": {
        "diff_pp": -0.9,
        "ev": -0.07,
        "has_edge": false,
        "label": "1-1",
        "market_odds": 7.5,
        "market_prob": 0.1333,
        "market_prob_pct": 13.3,
        "model_prob": 0.124,
        "model_prob_pct": 12.4,
        "n_bookmakers": 7,
        "status_key": "no_value"
      },
      "most_likely": {
        "label": "1-1",
        "prob": 12.4
      },
      "top5": [
        {
          "label": "1-1",
          "prob": 12.4
        },
        {
          "label": "1-0",
          "prob": 10.8
        },
        {
          "label": "2-1",
          "prob": 9.0
        },
        {
          "label": "0-1",
          "prob": 8.5
        },
        {
          "label": "2-0",
          "prob": 7.9
        }
      ]
    },
    "home_xg": 1.46,
    "homepage_pick": null,
    "market_cards": [
      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "decision_layer": {
          "alpha": 0.1585,
          "available": true,
          "consensus_odds": 2.39,
          "edge": 0.0126,
          "edge_pp": 1.3,
          "market_prob": 0.3824,
          "mode": "market_first_btts",
          "model_prob": 0.462,
          "n_bookmakers": 7,
          "no": {
            "alpha": 0.1585,
            "best_odd": 2.39,
            "edge": 0.0126,
            "ev": -0.0558,
            "implied_prob": 0.3824,
            "model_prob": 0.462,
            "p_final": 0.395
          },
          "p_final": 0.395,
          "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
          "raw_edge_pp": 8.0,
          "raw_signal_ev": 0.1042,
          "risk_adj_ev": -0.0558,
          "value_side": "no",
          "yes": {
            "alpha": 0.218,
            "best_odd": 1.48,
            "edge": -0.0173,
            "ev": -0.1117,
            "implied_prob": 0.6176,
            "model_prob": 0.538,
            "p_final": 0.6002
          }
        },
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_no": 0.2151,
        "ev_no_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": 21.5,
          "text": "+21.5%"
        },
        "ev_yes": -0.1769,
        "ev_yes_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": -17.7,
          "text": "-17.7%"
        },
        "featured": true,
        "id": "btts",
        "max_ev": 0.2151,
        "n_bookmakers": 7,
        "no_prob": 46.2,
        "sort_key": 10343.59,
        "tier": "best",
        "value_side": "no",
        "yes_prob": 53.8
      },
      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "decision_layer": {
          "alpha": 0.1919,
          "available": true,
          "consensus_odds": 2.17,
          "edge": 0.0188,
          "edge_pp": 1.9,
          "market_prob": 0.4198,
          "mode": "market_first_ou",
          "model_prob": 0.518,
          "n_bookmakers": 7,
          "over": {
            "alpha": 0.211,
            "best_odd": 1.57,
            "edge": -0.0207,
            "ev": -0.1216,
            "implied_prob": 0.5802,
            "model_prob": 0.482,
            "p_final": 0.5595
          },
          "p_final": 0.4386,
          "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
          "raw_edge_pp": 9.8,
          "raw_signal_ev": 0.1241,
          "risk_adj_ev": -0.0482,
          "under": {
            "alpha": 0.1919,
            "best_odd": 2.17,
            "edge": 0.0188,
            "ev": -0.0482,
            "implied_prob": 0.4198,
            "model_prob": 0.518,
            "p_final": 0.4386
          },
          "value_side": "under"
        },
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_over": -0.2047,
        "ev_over_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": -20.5,
          "text": "-20.5%"
        },
        "ev_under": 0.1655,
        "ev_under_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": 16.6,
          "text": "+16.6%"
        },
        "featured": false,
        "id": "ou_2_5",
        "max_ev": 0.1655,
        "n_bookmakers": 7,
        "over_prob": 48.2,
        "sort_key": 10148.95,
        "tier": "best",
        "under_prob": 51.8,
        "value_side": "under"
      },
      {
        "authority_action": "primary",
        "consensus_odds": 2.21,
        "decision": "no_bet",
        "disagreement_label": "Normal",
        "disagreement_level": "normal",
        "ev": -0.0638,
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": -6.4,
          "text": "-6.4%"
        },
        "featured": false,
        "id": "1x2",
        "implied_prob": 0.4195,
        "is_extreme_disagreement": false,
        "max_ev": -0.0375,
        "max_ev_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": -3.8,
          "text": "-3.8%"
        },
        "model_prob": 0.4288,
        "raw_edge_display": "+0.9 percentage points",
        "raw_edge_pp": 0.9,
        "raw_signal_ev": -0.0524,
        "raw_signal_ev_display": "-5.2%",
        "show_primary_label": true,
        "side_label": "H\u00e4ssleholms IF",
        "sort_key": 1790.625,
        "tier": "bad_ev"
      },
      {
        "featured": false,
        "id": "correct_score",
        "sort_key": 817.2,
        "tier": "risk",
        "top_label": "1-1",
        "top_prob": 12.4
      }
    ],
    "market_intelligence": {
      "betting_signal": {
        "alert_breadth": "",
        "alert_breadth_note": "",
        "alert_move": "",
        "alert_team": "",
        "alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
        "divergence_pp": 4.4,
        "has_alert": false,
        "hero_edge_pp": -4.37,
        "hero_label": "AFC Malmo",
        "market_prob_pct": 42.0,
        "market_team": "H\u00e4ssleholms IF",
        "model_prob_pct": 42.9,
        "model_team": "H\u00e4ssleholms IF",
        "show": true,
        "status_icon": "\u2713",
        "status_key": "aligned",
        "status_label": "Reliable prediction",
        "status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
        "steam_score": null,
        "steam_subtitle": "",
        "steam_tier": "",
        "title": "Betting Signal"
      },
      "decision_chain": {
        "academy_links": [
          {
            "key": "steam",
            "read_min": 4,
            "title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
            "url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
          },
          {
            "key": "clv_pending",
            "read_min": 3,
            "title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
            "url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
          }
        ],
        "alignment": {
          "direction_aligned": true,
          "direction_key": "agree",
          "gap_pp": 4.4,
          "key": "agree",
          "label": "Agree",
          "model_strong": false,
          "pricing_aligned": true,
          "pricing_key": "high",
          "probability_gap_pp": 4.4,
          "summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (H\u00e4ssleholms IF)."
        },
        "authority": {
          "action": "primary",
          "alignment": {
            "direction_aligned": true,
            "direction_key": "agree",
            "gap_pp": 4.4,
            "key": "agree",
            "label": "Agree",
            "model_strong": false,
            "pricing_aligned": true,
            "pricing_key": "high",
            "probability_gap_pp": 4.4,
            "summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (H\u00e4ssleholms IF)."
          },
          "alignment_key": "agree",
          "best_consensus_ev": 0.2151,
          "best_outlier_ev": 0.2151,
          "confidence_band": "High",
          "decision_strength": 7.8,
          "decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
          "decision_strength_v2": 7.8,
          "decision_type": "PRIMARY",
          "execution_confidence": 85,
          "extreme_disagreement": false,
          "final_verdict_audit": {
            "action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
            "action_label": "Action",
            "decision": "Primary Bet",
            "is_primary": true,
            "snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates H\u00e4ssleholms IF at 42.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 41.9%.",
            "why": [
              {
                "text": "Decision Model identifies H\u00e4ssleholms IF as the value side (42.9%)",
                "tone": "ok"
              },
              {
                "text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
                "tone": "ok"
              },
              {
                "text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
                "tone": "ok"
              }
            ],
            "why_label": "Decision Summary"
          },
          "gap_pp": 0.9,
          "gates_failed": [],
          "has_top_pick": true,
          "headline": "Primary Bet",
          "hero_mode": "default",
          "icon": "\u2713",
          "label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
          "market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
          "model_conflict_detail": null,
          "model_lean": "H\u00e4ssleholms IF",
          "no_primary_reasons": null,
          "outlier_detected": false,
          "outlier_excluded_panel": "",
          "primary_allowed": true,
          "primary_block_explain": null,
          "primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +21.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
          "primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +21.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.8/10 (display only)",
          "primary_gates": {
            "items": [
              {
                "key": "extreme_gap",
                "label": "Extreme gap",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "no"
              },
              {
                "key": "xg_calibration",
                "label": "xG calibration",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "ok"
              },
              {
                "key": "reliability",
                "label": "Rel",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "81 (\u226565)"
              },
              {
                "key": "execution",
                "label": "Exec",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "85 (\u226565)"
              },
              {
                "key": "alignment",
                "label": "Align",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "agree"
              },
              {
                "key": "consensus_ev",
                "label": "ConsEV",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "+21.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
              },
              {
                "key": "top_pick",
                "label": "Pick",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "true"
              },
              {
                "key": "validation",
                "label": "Validation",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "true"
              }
            ],
            "passed": 8,
            "total": 8
          },
          "primary_type": "market_confirmed",
          "reasons": [
            "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (H\u00e4ssleholms IF).",
            "Decision strength: 7.8/10"
          ],
          "reliability_score": 81,
          "speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
          "strength_v2_breakdown": [
            "Base decision score (v1)",
            "Reliability supports action",
            "Market aligns with model",
            "Consensus-line +EV"
          ],
          "subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
          "thresholds": {
            "extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
            "lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
            "lean_min_strength": 5.0,
            "min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
            "min_execution": 65,
            "min_reliability": 65,
            "min_strength": 7.0,
            "source": "db",
            "user_id": 2
          },
          "thresholds_source": "db",
          "thresholds_user_id": 2,
          "tier": "actionable",
          "validation_ok": true,
          "value_context": {
            "consensus_ev": -0.0638,
            "consensus_ev_display": "-6.4%",
            "consensus_odds": 2.21,
            "disagreement_label": "Normal",
            "disagreement_level": "normal",
            "implied_prob": 0.4195,
            "is_extreme_disagreement": false,
            "model_prob": 0.4288,
            "raw_edge_display": "+0.9 percentage points",
            "raw_edge_pp": 0.9,
            "raw_implied_prob": 0.45248868778280543,
            "raw_signal_ev": -0.0524,
            "raw_signal_ev_display": "-5.2%"
          },
          "version": "v2.5",
          "xg_calibration": {
            "block_value_alert": false,
            "calibration_status": "ok",
            "deviation_pct": 8.1,
            "reasons": [],
            "recommended_action": "ok",
            "strength_delta": 0.0,
            "uplift_away": null,
            "uplift_home": null,
            "xg_separation": {
              "band": "ok",
              "block_value_alert": false,
              "separation_score": 0,
              "strength_delta": 0.0,
              "xg_gap": 0.32
            }
          }
        },
        "bet_status": "primary",
        "books_breadth_display": "6/9",
        "breadth_ratio": 0.6666666666666666,
        "evidence": {
          "score": 75,
          "signals": [
            {
              "icon": "\u25cb",
              "key": "statistical_edge",
              "label": "No strong statistical edge",
              "status": "neutral"
            },
            {
              "icon": "\u2713",
              "key": "market_agreement",
              "label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
              "status": "pass"
            },
            {
              "icon": "\u25cb",
              "key": "steam",
              "label": "Sharp steam detected",
              "status": "neutral"
            },
            {
              "icon": "\u2713",
              "key": "validation",
              "label": "Validation passed",
              "status": "pass"
            }
          ],
          "stars": 4,
          "tier": "high",
          "tier_label": "High"
        },
        "forecast_reliability": {
          "breakdown": [
            {
              "key": "validation",
              "label": "Validation: Pass",
              "tone": "ok"
            }
          ],
          "parts": {
            "alignment": 22.8,
            "data_quality": 12.0,
            "market_coverage": 6.7,
            "steam_coherence": 5.0,
            "validation": 30.0
          },
          "score": 81,
          "stars": 4,
          "tier": "high",
          "tier_label": "High"
        },
        "lean_gap_pp": 4.37,
        "market_agreement": "strong",
        "max_gap_pp": 4.37,
        "model_calibration": {
          "away_xg": 1.14,
          "calibration_status": "ok",
          "deviation_pct": 8.0,
          "elevated": false,
          "home_xg": 1.46,
          "impact_note": "",
          "league_avg_xg": 1.35,
          "peak_xg": 1.46,
          "status_label": "Within typical league range",
          "summary": "Home xG 1.46 \u00b7 Away xG 1.14 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +8%",
          "title": "Model Calibration Check"
        },
        "move_is_drift": false,
        "mv_status": "pass",
        "odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
        "steam_conflicts": null,
        "steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
        "steam_team": "H\u00e4ssleholms IF",
        "suppress_execution": false,
        "value_split": {
          "execution_confidence": {
            "label": "Betting Confidence",
            "score": 85,
            "tier": "high",
            "tier_label": "High"
          },
          "market_compatibility": {
            "label": "Market Compatibility",
            "note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
            "score": 95,
            "tier": "high",
            "tier_label": "High"
          },
          "model_edge_strength": {
            "label": "Model Signal Strength",
            "score": 42,
            "tier": "low",
            "tier_label": "Low"
          },
          "model_value": {
            "label": "Market Compatibility",
            "note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
            "score": 95,
            "tier": "high",
            "tier_label": "High"
          },
          "recommendation": {
            "action": "primary",
            "label": "Primary Bet"
          }
        },
        "verdict": {
          "agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (H\u00e4ssleholms IF).",
          "alignment": {
            "direction_aligned": true,
            "direction_key": "agree",
            "gap_pp": 4.4,
            "key": "agree",
            "label": "Agree",
            "model_strong": false,
            "pricing_aligned": true,
            "pricing_key": "high",
            "probability_gap_pp": 4.4,
            "summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (H\u00e4ssleholms IF)."
          },
          "authority": {
            "action": "primary",
            "alignment": {
              "direction_aligned": true,
              "direction_key": "agree",
              "gap_pp": 4.4,
              "key": "agree",
              "label": "Agree",
              "model_strong": false,
              "pricing_aligned": true,
              "pricing_key": "high",
              "probability_gap_pp": 4.4,
              "summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (H\u00e4ssleholms IF)."
            },
            "alignment_key": "agree",
            "best_consensus_ev": 0.2151,
            "best_outlier_ev": 0.2151,
            "confidence_band": "High",
            "decision_strength": 7.8,
            "decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
            "decision_strength_v2": 7.8,
            "decision_type": "PRIMARY",
            "execution_confidence": 85,
            "extreme_disagreement": false,
            "final_verdict_audit": {
              "action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
              "action_label": "Action",
              "decision": "Primary Bet",
              "is_primary": true,
              "snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates H\u00e4ssleholms IF at 42.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 41.9%.",
              "why": [
                {
                  "text": "Decision Model identifies H\u00e4ssleholms IF as the value side (42.9%)",
                  "tone": "ok"
                },
                {
                  "text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
                  "tone": "ok"
                },
                {
                  "text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
                  "tone": "ok"
                }
              ],
              "why_label": "Decision Summary"
            },
            "gap_pp": 0.9,
            "gates_failed": [],
            "has_top_pick": true,
            "headline": "Primary Bet",
            "hero_mode": "default",
            "icon": "\u2713",
            "label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
            "market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
            "model_conflict_detail": null,
            "model_lean": "H\u00e4ssleholms IF",
            "no_primary_reasons": null,
            "outlier_detected": false,
            "outlier_excluded_panel": "",
            "primary_allowed": true,
            "primary_block_explain": null,
            "primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +21.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
            "primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +21.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.8/10 (display only)",
            "primary_gates": {
              "items": [
                {
                  "key": "extreme_gap",
                  "label": "Extreme gap",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "no"
                },
                {
                  "key": "xg_calibration",
                  "label": "xG calibration",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "ok"
                },
                {
                  "key": "reliability",
                  "label": "Rel",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "81 (\u226565)"
                },
                {
                  "key": "execution",
                  "label": "Exec",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "85 (\u226565)"
                },
                {
                  "key": "alignment",
                  "label": "Align",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "agree"
                },
                {
                  "key": "consensus_ev",
                  "label": "ConsEV",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "+21.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
                },
                {
                  "key": "top_pick",
                  "label": "Pick",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "true"
                },
                {
                  "key": "validation",
                  "label": "Validation",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "true"
                }
              ],
              "passed": 8,
              "total": 8
            },
            "primary_type": "market_confirmed",
            "reasons": [
              "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (H\u00e4ssleholms IF).",
              "Decision strength: 7.8/10"
            ],
            "reliability_score": 81,
            "speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
            "strength_v2_breakdown": [
              "Base decision score (v1)",
              "Reliability supports action",
              "Market aligns with model",
              "Consensus-line +EV"
            ],
            "subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
            "thresholds": {
              "extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
              "lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
              "lean_min_strength": 5.0,
              "min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
              "min_execution": 65,
              "min_reliability": 65,
              "min_strength": 7.0,
              "source": "db",
              "user_id": 2
            },
            "thresholds_source": "db",
            "thresholds_user_id": 2,
            "tier": "actionable",
            "validation_ok": true,
            "value_context": {
              "consensus_ev": -0.0638,
              "consensus_ev_display": "-6.4%",
              "consensus_odds": 2.21,
              "disagreement_label": "Normal",
              "disagreement_level": "normal",
              "implied_prob": 0.4195,
              "is_extreme_disagreement": false,
              "model_prob": 0.4288,
              "raw_edge_display": "+0.9 percentage points",
              "raw_edge_pp": 0.9,
              "raw_implied_prob": 0.45248868778280543,
              "raw_signal_ev": -0.0524,
              "raw_signal_ev_display": "-5.2%"
            },
            "version": "v2.5",
            "xg_calibration": {
              "block_value_alert": false,
              "calibration_status": "ok",
              "deviation_pct": 8.1,
              "reasons": [],
              "recommended_action": "ok",
              "strength_delta": 0.0,
              "uplift_away": null,
              "uplift_home": null,
              "xg_separation": {
                "band": "ok",
                "block_value_alert": false,
                "separation_score": 0,
                "strength_delta": 0.0,
                "xg_gap": 0.32
              }
            }
          },
          "headline": "Primary Bet",
          "icon": "\u2713",
          "label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
          "subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
          "tier": "actionable"
        },
        "why": {
          "action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
          "bullets": [
            "Model: H\u00e4ssleholms IF 1.46 xG vs AFC Malmo 1.14 \u2192 H\u00e4ssleholms IF 42.9%",
            "Market: H\u00e4ssleholms IF ~42.0% implied",
            "Market Steam: H\u00e4ssleholms IF +0.0%"
          ],
          "one_liner": "Model and market both lean H\u00e4ssleholms IF with no major conflict.",
          "title": "Why?"
        }
      },
      "edge_rows": [
        {
          "edge_pp": 0.91,
          "fair_prob": 42.86,
          "label": "H\u00e4ssleholms IF",
          "market_prob": 41.95,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "home"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 3.45,
          "fair_prob": 29.2,
          "label": "Draw",
          "market_prob": 25.75,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "draw"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -4.37,
          "fair_prob": 27.93,
          "label": "AFC Malmo",
          "market_prob": 32.3,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "away"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -9.71,
          "fair_prob": 48.2,
          "label": "Over 2.5",
          "market_prob": 57.91,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "over"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 9.71,
          "fair_prob": 51.8,
          "label": "Under 2.5",
          "market_prob": 42.09,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "under"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -8.08,
          "fair_prob": 53.8,
          "label": "BTTS Yes",
          "market_prob": 61.88,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "yes"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 8.08,
          "fair_prob": 46.2,
          "label": "BTTS No",
          "market_prob": 38.12,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "no"
        }
      ],
      "edge_snapshot": {
        "edge_label": "aligned",
        "edge_pp": -4.37,
        "fair_prob_pct": 27.93,
        "hero_side": "away",
        "hero_team_name": "AFC Malmo",
        "market_prob_pct": 32.3,
        "status": "aligned",
        "steam_team_name": "H\u00e4ssleholms IF"
      },
      "fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
      "fair_vs_market": {
        "closing_capture": "PRE1",
        "closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
        "comparison_available": true,
        "comparison_disabled": false,
        "comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
        "degraded_note": "",
        "divergence_guard": {
          "divergence_level": "aligned",
          "edge_status": "aligned",
          "max_gap_pp": 4.37,
          "suppress_hero": false,
          "suppress_value_language": false
        },
        "divergence_label": "",
        "divergence_level": "aligned",
        "divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
        "divergence_note": "",
        "divergence_tier": "aligned",
        "edge_label": "Aligned",
        "edge_label_key": "aligned",
        "fair_confidence": "medium",
        "fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
        "fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
        "forecast_assessment": {
          "favourite_class": "Balanced match",
          "favourite_label": "H\u00e4ssleholms IF",
          "forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
          "headline": "Balanced match",
          "market_agreement_label": "Strong",
          "market_direction": {
            "label": "Supports model direction",
            "positive": true
          },
          "market_prob_pct": 42.0,
          "model_prob_gap_display": "+0.9 percentage points",
          "model_prob_gap_pp": 0.9,
          "model_prob_pct": 42.9,
          "outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
          "paragraphs": [],
          "pricing_convergence": {
            "gap_display": "+0.9 percentage points",
            "gap_pp": 0.9,
            "label": "High",
            "label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
          },
          "reliability_headline": "High reliability",
          "reliability_icon": "\u2713",
          "reliability_score": 81,
          "reliability_tier": "high",
          "summary": "H\u00e4ssleholms IF \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
          "tier": "balanced",
          "title": "Prediction Assessment",
          "validation_label": "Pass",
          "value_split": {
            "execution_confidence": {
              "label": "Betting Confidence",
              "score": 85,
              "tier": "high",
              "tier_label": "High"
            },
            "market_compatibility": {
              "label": "Market Compatibility",
              "note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
              "score": 95,
              "tier": "high",
              "tier_label": "High"
            },
            "model_edge_strength": {
              "label": "Model Signal Strength",
              "score": 42,
              "tier": "low",
              "tier_label": "Low"
            },
            "model_value": {
              "label": "Market Compatibility",
              "note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
              "score": 95,
              "tier": "high",
              "tier_label": "High"
            },
            "recommendation": {
              "action": "primary",
              "label": "Primary Bet"
            }
          },
          "why": {
            "action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
            "bullets": [
              "Model: H\u00e4ssleholms IF 1.46 xG vs AFC Malmo 1.14 \u2192 H\u00e4ssleholms IF 42.9%",
              "Market: H\u00e4ssleholms IF ~42.0% implied",
              "Market Steam: H\u00e4ssleholms IF +0.0%"
            ],
            "one_liner": "Model and market both lean H\u00e4ssleholms IF with no major conflict.",
            "title": "Why?"
          }
        },
        "forecast_certainty": {
          "note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
          "tier": "low",
          "tier_label": "Low"
        },
        "forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
        "has_market_probs": true,
        "hero_edge_pp": -4.37,
        "hero_label": "AFC Malmo",
        "hero_side": "away",
        "market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
        "market_agreement": "strong",
        "market_agreement_label": "Strong",
        "market_interpretation": {
          "bullets": [
            "Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
          ],
          "follow_up": "",
          "gap_tier": "aligned",
          "lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
          "note": "Market and fair estimate are broadly aligned on current pricing.",
          "paragraphs": [
            "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement."
          ],
          "quiet_market": true,
          "title": "Market Assessment"
        },
        "market_narrative": {
          "paragraphs": [
            "Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
            "No meaningful directional movement has emerged, and pricing remains stable across tracked sportsbooks."
          ],
          "title": "Current Market Narrative"
        },
        "market_source": "closing_1x2",
        "max_gap_pp": 4.37,
        "model_validation": {
          "score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
          "status": "pass"
        },
        "model_validation_label": "Pass",
        "outcome_separation": {
          "breakdown": [
            "No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
            "Favourite exceeds second outcome by 13.7 pp (at 42.9%)."
          ],
          "lead_gap_pp": 13.7,
          "max_prob_pct": 42.9,
          "note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
          "tier": "medium",
          "tier_label": "Medium"
        },
        "outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
        "overall_assessment": {
          "badge_class": "aligned",
          "largest_gap_label": "AFC Malmo",
          "largest_gap_pp": -4.4,
          "lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
          "level": "aligned",
          "max_gap_pp": 4.4,
          "title": "Broadly Aligned"
        },
        "rows": [
          {
            "difference_pp": 0.91,
            "edge_pp": 0.91,
            "fair_prob_pct": 42.86,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "H\u00e4ssleholms IF",
            "market_prob_pct": 41.95,
            "side": "home",
            "signal_key": "aligned",
            "signal_label": "Aligned"
          },
          {
            "difference_pp": 3.45,
            "edge_pp": 3.45,
            "fair_prob_pct": 29.2,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Draw",
            "market_prob_pct": 25.75,
            "side": "draw",
            "signal_key": "aligned",
            "signal_label": "Aligned"
          },
          {
            "difference_pp": -4.37,
            "edge_pp": -4.37,
            "fair_prob_pct": 27.93,
            "is_hero": true,
            "label": "AFC Malmo",
            "market_prob_pct": 32.3,
            "side": "away",
            "signal_key": "aligned",
            "signal_label": "Aligned"
          }
        ],
        "status": "aligned",
        "status_label": "Aligned",
        "steam_note": "Market and fair estimate are broadly aligned on current pricing.",
        "unavailable_note": ""
      },
      "interpretation": {
        "has_conflict": false,
        "paragraphs": [
          "The betting market strongly prefers H\u00e4ssleholms IF (42.0%).",
          "H\u00e4ssleholms IF \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
        ],
        "show": true,
        "title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
      },
      "lifecycle": {
        "closing_implied_pct": 34.84,
        "closing_odds": 2.87,
        "closing_reason": "",
        "closing_status": "recorded",
        "closing_status_label": "Recorded",
        "clv_pending": true,
        "clv_pp": 0.0,
        "clv_reason": "",
        "clv_status": "pending",
        "context": "match",
        "current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
        "current_stage_detail": "",
        "current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
        "entry_implied_pct": 34.84,
        "entry_odds": 2.87,
        "match_phase": "upcoming",
        "match_phase_detail": "",
        "match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
        "match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
        "model_validation_label": "Pass",
        "model_validation_status": "pass",
        "stages": [
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "forecast_generated",
            "label": "Prediction Generated",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "market_detected",
            "label": "Market Compared",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "model_validated",
            "label": "Validation Passed",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "PRE1",
            "id": "closing_recorded",
            "label": "Closing Recorded",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "clv_evaluated",
            "label": "CLV Evaluated",
            "status": "pending"
          }
        ]
      },
      "market_move_intelligence": {
        "show": false
      },
      "market_overview": {
        "breadth_display": "6/9",
        "current_odds": 2.25,
        "move_display": "+0.0%",
        "open_odds": 2.25,
        "pick_team": "H\u00e4ssleholms IF",
        "steam_score": 20,
        "steam_team_name": "H\u00e4ssleholms IF",
        "steam_tier": "C"
      },
      "premium_teaser": {
        "current_divergence_pp": 4.4,
        "divergence_label": "Current divergence",
        "title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
        "unlock_items": [
          "Historical similar matches",
          "Closing odds analysis",
          "CLV tracking",
          "Sharp money signals",
          "Market efficiency rating",
          "Historical model vs market results"
        ],
        "unlock_label": "Unlock"
      },
      "show": true
    },
    "match": {
      "at2.away_team_slug": "afc-malmo",
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_goal_display": null,
      "away_team_display_name": "AFC Malmo",
      "away_team_id": 27669,
      "away_team_logo": null,
      "away_team_name": "AFC Malmo",
      "away_team_public_id": "4CHzq0XOuyU3Iw",
      "away_team_slug": "afc-malmo",
      "country_code": "SE",
      "country_display_name": "Sweden",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/se.svg",
      "country_id": 148,
      "country_name": "Sweden",
      "fixture_id": 1504540,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_goal_display": null,
      "home_team_country": "Sweden",
      "home_team_display_name": "H\u00e4ssleholms IF",
      "home_team_id": 6676,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/6676.webp",
      "home_team_name": "H\u00e4ssleholms IF",
      "home_team_public_id": "2edUOtmWzEYi4i",
      "home_team_slug": "hassleholms-if",
      "ht.home_team_slug": "hassleholms-if",
      "league_country": "Sweden",
      "league_country_display": "Sweden",
      "league_display_name": "Ettan - S\u00f6dra",
      "league_id": 564,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/564.webp",
      "league_name": "Ettan - S\u00f6dra",
      "league_public_id": "3mv3qLswDEZqW8",
      "league_season": 2026,
      "match_date": "2026-09-16 17:00:00",
      "public_id": "2PlONk2lZTi9O7",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "score_penalty_away": null,
      "score_penalty_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS",
      "venue_city": "Hassleholm",
      "venue_name": "Osteras IP"
    },
    "match_decision": {
      "confidence": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.5
      },
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.4203,
            "best_odd": 2.87,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0185,
            "ev": -0.126,
            "implied_prob": 0.323,
            "joint_probs": {
              "away": 0.323,
              "draw": 0.2575,
              "home": 0.4195
            },
            "model_prob": 0.2791,
            "p_final": 0.3045
          },
          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.2844,
            "best_odd": 3.6,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0098,
            "ev": -0.0375,
            "implied_prob": 0.2575,
            "joint_probs": {
              "away": 0.323,
              "draw": 0.2575,
              "home": 0.4195
            },
            "model_prob": 0.2921,
            "p_final": 0.2674
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.4437,
            "best_odd": 2.21,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0041,
            "ev": -0.0638,
            "implied_prob": 0.4195,
            "joint_probs": {
              "away": 0.323,
              "draw": 0.2575,
              "home": 0.4195
            },
            "model_prob": 0.4288,
            "p_final": 0.4236
          }
        },
        "1x2_outlier": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
          "away": {
            "best_odd": 2.87,
            "edge": -0.0694,
            "ev": -0.1991,
            "implied_prob": 0.3484,
            "model_prob": 0.2791
          },
          "draw": {
            "best_odd": 3.6,
            "edge": 0.0144,
            "ev": 0.0517,
            "implied_prob": 0.2778,
            "model_prob": 0.2921
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "best_odd": 2.21,
            "edge": -0.0237,
            "ev": -0.0524,
            "implied_prob": 0.4525,
            "model_prob": 0.4288
          }
        },
        "btts": {
          "alpha_no": 0.1585,
          "alpha_yes": 0.218,
          "best_no_odd": 2.63,
          "best_yes_odd": 1.53,
          "btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
          "edge_no": 0.0808,
          "edge_yes": -0.0808,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_no": 0.2151,
          "ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0558,
          "ev_yes": -0.1769,
          "ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1117,
          "implied_no": 0.3812,
          "implied_yes": 0.6188,
          "market_first": {
            "available": true,
            "mode": "market_first_btts",
            "n_bookmakers": 7,
            "no": {
              "alpha": 0.1585,
              "best_odd": 2.39,
              "edge": 0.0126,
              "ev": -0.0558,
              "implied_prob": 0.3824,
              "model_prob": 0.462,
              "p_final": 0.395
            },
            "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
            "yes": {
              "alpha": 0.218,
              "best_odd": 1.48,
              "edge": -0.0173,
              "ev": -0.1117,
              "implied_prob": 0.6176,
              "model_prob": 0.538,
              "p_final": 0.6002
            }
          },
          "n_bookmakers": 7,
          "p_final_no": 0.395,
          "p_final_yes": 0.6002,
          "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
          "reliability": "medium"
        },
        "ou25": {
          "alpha_over": 0.211,
          "alpha_under": 0.1919,
          "best_over_odd": 1.65,
          "best_under_odd": 2.25,
          "consensus_over_odd": 1.57,
          "consensus_under_odd": 2.17,
          "edge_over": -0.0971,
          "edge_under": 0.0971,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_over": -0.2047,
          "ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1216,
          "ev_under": 0.1655,
          "ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0482,
          "implied_over": 0.5791,
          "implied_over_mf": 0.5802,
          "implied_under": 0.4209,
          "implied_under_mf": 0.4198,
          "market_first": {
            "available": true,
            "mode": "market_first_ou",
            "n_bookmakers": 7,
            "over": {
              "alpha": 0.211,
              "best_odd": 1.57,
              "edge": -0.0207,
              "ev": -0.1216,
              "implied_prob": 0.5802,
              "model_prob": 0.482,
              "p_final": 0.5595
            },
            "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
            "under": {
              "alpha": 0.1919,
              "best_odd": 2.17,
              "edge": 0.0188,
              "ev": -0.0482,
              "implied_prob": 0.4198,
              "model_prob": 0.518,
              "p_final": 0.4386
            }
          },
          "n_bookmakers": 7,
          "ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
          "p_final_over": 0.5595,
          "p_final_under": 0.4386,
          "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
          "reliability": "medium"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 2.6,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.5.0"
      },
      "balanced_alternative": null,
      "best_consensus_ev": 0.2151,
      "best_outlier_ev": 0.2151,
      "best_tracked_ev": 0.2151,
      "confidence": 6.5,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
          "pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Primary line identified (+1.0)",
          "Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
          "Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "breakdown_v2": [
          "Base decision score (v1)",
          "Reliability supports action",
          "Market aligns with model",
          "Consensus-line +EV"
        ],
        "score": 7.8,
        "score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
        "score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.8,
        "strength_v2": true
      },
      "decision_strength_v2": {
        "breakdown": [
          "Base decision score (v1)",
          "Reliability supports action",
          "Market aligns with model",
          "Consensus-line +EV"
        ],
        "score": 7.8,
        "score_pre_penalty": 7.8
      },
      "decision_type": "PRIMARY",
      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": false,
        "1x2_open_contest": true,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
      },
      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
      },
      "final_action": "primary",
      "final_decision": {
        "action": "primary",
        "alignment": {
          "direction_aligned": true,
          "direction_key": "agree",
          "gap_pp": 4.4,
          "key": "agree",
          "label": "Agree",
          "model_strong": false,
          "pricing_aligned": true,
          "pricing_key": "high",
          "probability_gap_pp": 4.4,
          "summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (H\u00e4ssleholms IF)."
        },
        "alignment_key": "agree",
        "best_consensus_ev": 0.2151,
        "best_outlier_ev": 0.2151,
        "confidence_band": "High",
        "decision_strength": 7.8,
        "decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
        "decision_strength_v2": 7.8,
        "decision_type": "PRIMARY",
        "execution_confidence": 85,
        "extreme_disagreement": false,
        "final_verdict_audit": {
          "action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
          "action_label": "Action",
          "decision": "Primary Bet",
          "is_primary": true,
          "snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates H\u00e4ssleholms IF at 42.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 41.9%.",
          "why": [
            {
              "text": "Decision Model identifies H\u00e4ssleholms IF as the value side (42.9%)",
              "tone": "ok"
            },
            {
              "text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
              "tone": "ok"
            },
            {
              "text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
              "tone": "ok"
            }
          ],
          "why_label": "Decision Summary"
        },
        "gap_pp": 0.9,
        "gates_failed": [],
        "has_top_pick": true,
        "headline": "Primary Bet",
        "hero_mode": "default",
        "icon": "\u2713",
        "label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
        "market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
        "model_conflict_detail": null,
        "model_lean": "H\u00e4ssleholms IF",
        "no_primary_reasons": null,
        "outlier_detected": false,
        "outlier_excluded_panel": "",
        "primary_allowed": true,
        "primary_block_explain": null,
        "primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +21.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
        "primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +21.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.8/10 (display only)",
        "primary_gates": {
          "items": [
            {
              "key": "extreme_gap",
              "label": "Extreme gap",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "no"
            },
            {
              "key": "xg_calibration",
              "label": "xG calibration",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "ok"
            },
            {
              "key": "reliability",
              "label": "Rel",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "81 (\u226565)"
            },
            {
              "key": "execution",
              "label": "Exec",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "85 (\u226565)"
            },
            {
              "key": "alignment",
              "label": "Align",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "agree"
            },
            {
              "key": "consensus_ev",
              "label": "ConsEV",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "+21.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
            },
            {
              "key": "top_pick",
              "label": "Pick",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "true"
            },
            {
              "key": "validation",
              "label": "Validation",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "true"
            }
          ],
          "passed": 8,
          "total": 8
        },
        "primary_type": "market_confirmed",
        "reasons": [
          "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (H\u00e4ssleholms IF).",
          "Decision strength: 7.8/10"
        ],
        "reliability_score": 81,
        "speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
        "strength_v2_breakdown": [
          "Base decision score (v1)",
          "Reliability supports action",
          "Market aligns with model",
          "Consensus-line +EV"
        ],
        "subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
        "thresholds": {
          "extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
          "lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
          "lean_min_strength": 5.0,
          "min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
          "min_execution": 65,
          "min_reliability": 65,
          "min_strength": 7.0,
          "source": "db",
          "user_id": 2
        },
        "thresholds_source": "db",
        "thresholds_user_id": 2,
        "tier": "actionable",
        "validation_ok": true,
        "value_context": {
          "consensus_ev": -0.0638,
          "consensus_ev_display": "-6.4%",
          "consensus_odds": 2.21,
          "disagreement_label": "Normal",
          "disagreement_level": "normal",
          "implied_prob": 0.4195,
          "is_extreme_disagreement": false,
          "model_prob": 0.4288,
          "raw_edge_display": "+0.9 percentage points",
          "raw_edge_pp": 0.9,
          "raw_implied_prob": 0.45248868778280543,
          "raw_signal_ev": -0.0524,
          "raw_signal_ev_display": "-5.2%"
        },
        "version": "v2.5",
        "xg_calibration": {
          "block_value_alert": false,
          "calibration_status": "ok",
          "deviation_pct": 8.1,
          "reasons": [],
          "recommended_action": "ok",
          "strength_delta": 0.0,
          "uplift_away": null,
          "uplift_home": null,
          "xg_separation": {
            "band": "ok",
            "block_value_alert": false,
            "separation_score": 0,
            "strength_delta": 0.0,
            "xg_gap": 0.32
          }
        }
      },
      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
        "scoring_type": "balanced",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.538,
          "draw_prob": 0.2921,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.4288,
          "over_prob": 0.482,
          "total_xg": 2.6,
          "under_prob": 0.518,
          "xg_diff": 0.32
        },
        "type": "balanced",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
      },
      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "hero_mode": "default",
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "consensus_odds": 2.21,
          "decision": "no_bet",
          "edge": 0.0041,
          "ev": -0.0638,
          "implied_prob": 0.4195,
          "max_ev_side": "draw",
          "model_prob": 0.4288,
          "side": "home",
          "side_label": "H\u00e4ssleholms IF"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "decision_layer": {
            "alpha": 0.1585,
            "available": true,
            "consensus_odds": 2.39,
            "edge": 0.0126,
            "market_prob": 0.3824,
            "mode": "market_first_btts",
            "model_prob": 0.462,
            "n_bookmakers": 7,
            "no": {
              "alpha": 0.1585,
              "best_odd": 2.39,
              "edge": 0.0126,
              "ev": -0.0558,
              "implied_prob": 0.3824,
              "model_prob": 0.462,
              "p_final": 0.395
            },
            "p_final": 0.395,
            "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
            "risk_adj_ev": -0.0558,
            "value_side": "no",
            "yes": {
              "alpha": 0.218,
              "best_odd": 1.48,
              "edge": -0.0173,
              "ev": -0.1117,
              "implied_prob": 0.6176,
              "model_prob": 0.538,
              "p_final": 0.6002
            }
          },
          "edge": 0.0808,
          "ev": 0.2151,
          "implied_prob": 0.3812,
          "model_prob": 0.462,
          "side": "no",
          "value_side": "no"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "decision_layer": {
            "alpha": 0.1919,
            "available": true,
            "consensus_odds": 2.17,
            "edge": 0.0188,
            "market_prob": 0.4198,
            "mode": "market_first_ou",
            "model_prob": 0.518,
            "n_bookmakers": 7,
            "over": {
              "alpha": 0.211,
              "best_odd": 1.57,
              "edge": -0.0207,
              "ev": -0.1216,
              "implied_prob": 0.5802,
              "model_prob": 0.482,
              "p_final": 0.5595
            },
            "p_final": 0.4386,
            "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
            "risk_adj_ev": -0.0482,
            "under": {
              "alpha": 0.1919,
              "best_odd": 2.17,
              "edge": 0.0188,
              "ev": -0.0482,
              "implied_prob": 0.4198,
              "model_prob": 0.518,
              "p_final": 0.4386
            },
            "value_side": "under"
          },
          "edge": 0.0971,
          "ev": 0.1655,
          "implied_prob": 0.4209,
          "model_prob": 0.518,
          "side": "under",
          "value_side": "under"
        }
      },
      "match_id": 1504540,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "bet",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": true,
        "code": "clear_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.2151,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 1.0,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.2791,
        "draw": 0.2921,
        "home": 0.4288
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "no_ev_1x2"
      ],
      "secondary_pick": {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.1655,
        "implied_prob": 0.4209,
        "market": "ou_2_5",
        "model_prob": 0.518,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "secondary",
        "side": "under",
        "slot": "secondary"
      },
      "secondary_picks": [
        {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "ev": 0.1655,
          "implied_prob": 0.4209,
          "market": "ou_2_5",
          "model_prob": 0.518,
          "not_dominant": false,
          "risk_band": "strong",
          "risk_tier": "secondary",
          "side": "under",
          "slot": "secondary"
        }
      ],
      "show_betting_primary_label": true,
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "AFC Malmo",
        "home": "H\u00e4ssleholms IF"
      },
      "top_pick": {
        "composite_score": 0.099376,
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.2151,
        "implied_prob": 0.3812,
        "market": "btts",
        "model_prob": 0.462,
        "not_dominant": true,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "medium",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "no",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
      },
      "valid_markets_count": 2,
      "value_context_1x2": {
        "consensus_ev": -0.0638,
        "consensus_ev_display": "-6.4%",
        "consensus_odds": 2.21,
        "disagreement_label": "Normal",
        "disagreement_level": "normal",
        "implied_prob": 0.4195,
        "is_extreme_disagreement": false,
        "model_prob": 0.4288,
        "raw_edge_display": "+0.9 percentage points",
        "raw_edge_pp": 0.9,
        "raw_implied_prob": 0.45248868778280543,
        "raw_signal_ev": -0.0524,
        "raw_signal_ev_display": "-5.2%"
      }
    }
  },
  "fixture_id": 1504540,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-16T16:59:53.143972+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}

Dapatkan Ramalan Premium untuk Hässleholms IF & AFC Malmo!

Buka analisis mendalam, tip pertaruhan eksklusif, dan ramalan perlawanan dengan perkhidmatan langganan premium kami.

Langgan Sekarang
Kembali ke Statistik
Ettan - Södra Ettan - Södra — Kedudukan
# PASUKAN P M S K Mata
1 Trelleborgs FF 24 15 6 3 51
2 Atvidabergs FF 24 13 6 5 45
3 Hässleholms IF 24 13 3 8 42
4 Lund 24 11 8 5 41
5 AFC Malmo 24 10 8 6 38
6 Rosengård 24 10 8 6 38
7 Trollhättan 24 10 7 7 37
8 Jönköpings Södra 24 9 6 9 33
9 Tvååker 24 9 6 9 33
10 Olympic 24 9 3 12 30
11 Skövde AIK 24 7 9 8 30
12 Eskilsminne 24 8 5 11 29
13 Kristianstad 24 7 6 11 27
14 Laholm 24 6 4 14 22
15 Ängelholms FF 24 3 9 12 18
16 Utsikten 24 2 6 16 12
# PASUKAN P J B +/- Mata
1 Trelleborgs FF 24 53 28 +25 51
2 Atvidabergs FF 24 48 34 +14 45
3 Lund 24 46 28 +18 41
4 Hässleholms IF 24 44 29 +15 42
5 AFC Malmo 24 44 35 +9 38
6 Rosengård 24 41 34 +7 38
7 Trollhättan 24 41 36 +5 37
8 Olympic 24 41 46 -5 30
9 Eskilsminne 24 39 44 -5 29
10 Tvååker 24 32 37 -5 33
11 Laholm 24 31 43 -12 22
12 Jönköpings Södra 24 29 25 +4 33
13 Kristianstad 24 29 36 -7 27
14 Skövde AIK 24 28 36 -8 30
15 Ängelholms FF 24 28 47 -19 18
16 Utsikten 24 21 57 -36 12