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Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Acassuso Racing Córdoba ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 3-2 ✖ tak betul
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.58
AI Fair Odds
2.77
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Racing Córdoba win · Racing Córdoba 3–2 Acassuso
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Probability Calibration
- Expected: 36.1%
- Historical Bucket: 35–40% — Building sample
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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"decision_algo_version": "2.3.1",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.32,
"away_win_prob": 0.3611,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.455,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.77,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.37,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.92,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.28,
"home_win_prob": 0.3424,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Double chance : Racing C\u00f3rdoba or draw and -3.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "30%",
"percent_draw": "35%",
"percent_home": "35%",
"winner_name": "Racing C\u00f3rdoba"
},
"away_xg": 1.32,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Acassuso",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.2329,
"edge_gap": 0.0185,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.128,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 36.1,
"draw": 29.7,
"home": 34.2
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 7.4
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 7.4,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Acassuso Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 7.81,
"market_odds": 7.4,
"model_odds": 2.77,
"overround": 5.5,
"prob_edge": 22.6,
"value_pct": 167.1,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 6,
"away_failed_to_score": 12,
"away_played": 19,
"away_score_rate": 73.3,
"home_clean_sheet": 6,
"home_failed_to_score": 8,
"home_played": 19,
"home_score_rate": 72.2,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.32,
"home_expected": 1.28,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.8
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.5
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.0
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Racing C\u00f3rdoba or Draw",
"prob": 63.8
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Racing C\u00f3rdoba or Acassuso",
"prob": 70.3
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Acassuso",
"prob": 65.7
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Racing C\u00f3rdoba or Acassuso",
"pick_prob": 70.3
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 36.1,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 34.2,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Acassuso"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "-3.5",
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 0.7,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 0.9,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 167.1,
"implied_prob": 13.5,
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Acassuso Win",
"model_prob": 36.1,
"odds": 7.4
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Acassuso",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 12.8,
"draw": 27.23,
"home": 59.97
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-07-12 19:01:06",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-07-12 18:31:30",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Racing C\u00f3rdoba",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 59.97,
"gap_pp": -25.73,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 34.24
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 27.23,
"gap_pp": 2.44,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.67
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 12.8,
"gap_pp": 23.29,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 36.09
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 33.57,
"gap_pp": 14.63,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 66.43,
"gap_pp": -14.63,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 1.58,
"early": 1.58,
"implied_closing_pct": 59.97,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 59.97,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.48,
"early": 3.48,
"implied_closing_pct": 27.23,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 27.23,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 7.4,
"early": 7.4,
"implied_closing_pct": 12.8,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 12.8,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 2.83,
"early": 2.83,
"implied_closing_pct": 33.57,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 33.57,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.43,
"early": 1.43,
"implied_closing_pct": 66.43,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 66.43,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 23.3,
"kind": "1x2_a"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
}
},
"home_xg": 1.28,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"consensus_odds": 7.4,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1718,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 17.2,
"text": "+17.2%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.128,
"max_ev": 0.1718,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 17.2,
"text": "+17.2%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"side_label": "Acassuso",
"sort_key": 10304.62,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"ev_available": false,
"ev_no": null,
"ev_no_display": null,
"ev_yes": null,
"ev_yes_display": null,
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": null,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 4050.0,
"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"decision": "no_bet",
"ev_available": false,
"ev_over": null,
"ev_over_display": null,
"ev_under": null,
"ev_under_display": null,
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": null,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 2050.0,
"tier": "pass",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "4/14",
"alert_breadth_note": "4/14 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +23.1%",
"alert_team": "Acassuso",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 25.7,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -25.73,
"hero_label": "Racing C\u00f3rdoba",
"market_prob_pct": 12.8,
"market_team": "Racing C\u00f3rdoba",
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"model_team": "Acassuso",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 63,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Acassuso, but the model still strongly favours Acassuso."
},
"authority": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Acassuso, but the model still strongly favours Acassuso."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1718,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.016709,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"execution_confidence": 29,
"gates_failed": [
"Decision strength below 7"
],
"headline": "Wait",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Acassuso, but the model still strongly favours Acassuso.",
"model_lean": "Acassuso",
"outlier_detected": false,
"primary_allowed": false,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Acassuso, but the model still strongly favours Acassuso.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Decision strength below 7"
],
"reliability_score": 46,
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"tier": "wait",
"version": "v1"
},
"bet_status": "wait",
"evidence": {
"score": 57,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (26 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 12.1,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 2.9,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 46,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"mv_status": "warning",
"suppress_execution": true,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Execution Confidence",
"score": 29,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Model Value",
"score": 14,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "wait",
"label": "Wait"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward Acassuso, but the model still strongly favours Acassuso.",
"alignment": {
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Acassuso, but the model still strongly favours Acassuso."
},
"authority": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Acassuso, but the model still strongly favours Acassuso."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1718,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.016709,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"execution_confidence": 29,
"gates_failed": [
"Decision strength below 7"
],
"headline": "Wait",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Acassuso, but the model still strongly favours Acassuso.",
"model_lean": "Acassuso",
"outlier_detected": false,
"primary_allowed": false,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Acassuso, but the model still strongly favours Acassuso.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Decision strength below 7"
],
"reliability_score": 46,
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"tier": "wait",
"version": "v1"
},
"headline": "Wait",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"tier": "wait"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Racing C\u00f3rdoba 1.28 xG vs Acassuso 1.32 \u2192 Acassuso 36.1%",
"Market: Racing C\u00f3rdoba ~12.8% implied",
"Market Drift: Acassuso odds \u2191 +23.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Acassuso, but sharp money moved toward Acassuso.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -25.73,
"fair_prob": 34.24,
"label": "Racing C\u00f3rdoba",
"market_prob": 59.97,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.42,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 27.23,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 23.31,
"fair_prob": 36.11,
"label": "Acassuso",
"market_prob": 12.8,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "extreme_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -25.73,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Racing C\u00f3rdoba",
"market_prob_pct": 59.97,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Acassuso"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Racing C\u00f3rdoba\u0027s win probability at 60.0%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 34.2%, a difference of 25.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 25.73,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": true
},
"divergence_label": "Extreme model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"divergence_level_label": "Extreme divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs substantially from current market pricing. Large divergences can occur when rating inputs are incomplete, team-strength estimates are uncertain, or the market incorporates information not present in the model. Interpret with caution.",
"divergence_tier": "extreme",
"edge_label": "Extreme disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "extreme_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Acassuso",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_prob_pct": 12.8,
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 46,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved toward Acassuso, but the model still strongly favours Acassuso. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Execution Confidence",
"score": 29,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Model Value",
"score": 14,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "wait",
"label": "Wait"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Racing C\u00f3rdoba 1.28 xG vs Acassuso 1.32 \u2192 Acassuso 36.1%",
"Market: Racing C\u00f3rdoba ~12.8% implied",
"Market Drift: Acassuso odds \u2191 +23.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Acassuso, but sharp money moved toward Acassuso.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -25.73,
"hero_label": "Racing C\u00f3rdoba",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Acassuso odds lengthened \u2191 +23.1%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {},
"market_narrative": {},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 25.73,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 1.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 1.9,
"max_prob_pct": 36.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "extreme",
"largest_gap_label": "Racing C\u00f3rdoba",
"largest_gap_pp": -25.7,
"lead": "The closing market prices Racing C\u00f3rdoba higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "extreme",
"max_gap_pp": 25.7,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -25.73,
"edge_pp": -25.73,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Racing C\u00f3rdoba",
"market_prob_pct": 59.97,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 2.42,
"edge_pp": 2.42,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 27.23,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 23.31,
"edge_pp": 23.31,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Acassuso",
"market_prob_pct": 12.8,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Racing C\u00f3rdoba (12.8%).",
"However, Acassuso has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +23.1%, 4/14) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Acassuso, Market \u2192 Racing C\u00f3rdoba, while Acassuso odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 63.29,
"closing_odds": 1.58,
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 63.29,
"entry_odds": 1.58,
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 4,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +23.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 23.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 9,
"bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 1,
"bookmaker_name": "10Bet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.5
}
],
"books_total": 14,
"breadth_display": "4/14",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 8.0,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +23.1%",
"move_pct_abs": 23.1,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 103h 47m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Bet365 led repricing on Acassuso (23.1%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"Sharper sportsbooks initiated a solid move with growing cross-book confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 23.1,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"8.00",
"7.25",
"6.50"
],
"display": "9.00 \u2192 5.42 \u2192 8.00",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 103h 47m",
"pick_team": "Acassuso",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "9.00"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "5.42"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "8.00"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
6.5,
7.4,
8.0
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,7.2 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "6.50"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "6.50"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "8.00"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "8.00"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 6.5,
"page_alert_line": "Market drift alert: Acassuso odds \u2191 +23.1% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Acassuso",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Market drift alert: Acassuso odds \u2191 +23.1% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 8.0,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +23.1%",
"open_odds": 6.5,
"summary": "Market moved toward Acassuso while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Acassuso",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 63,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "4/14",
"current_odds": 8.0,
"move_display": "\u2191 +23.1%",
"open_odds": 6.5,
"pick_team": "Acassuso",
"steam_score": 63,
"steam_team_name": "Acassuso",
"steam_tier": "A"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 25.7,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": 1,
"away_team_id": 2425,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/2425.webp",
"away_team_name": "Acassuso",
"country_code": "AR",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ar.svg",
"country_name": "Argentina",
"fixture_id": 1498644,
"goals_away": 1,
"goals_home": 1,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": 1,
"home_team_country": "Argentina",
"home_team_id": 1957,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1957.webp",
"home_team_name": "Racing C\u00f3rdoba",
"league_country": "Argentina",
"league_id": 129,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/129.webp",
"league_name": "Primera Nacional",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-07-12 19:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Second Half",
"status_short": "2H",
"venue_city": "Cordoba",
"venue_name": "Estadio Miguel Sancho"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1301,
"best_odd": 7.4,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0303,
"ev": 0.1718,
"implied_prob": 0.128,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.128,
"draw": 0.2723,
"home": 0.5997
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"p_final": 0.1583
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.289,
"best_odd": 3.48,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0071,
"ev": -0.028,
"implied_prob": 0.2723,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.128,
"draw": 0.2723,
"home": 0.5997
},
"model_prob": 0.2967,
"p_final": 0.2793
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3684,
"best_odd": 1.58,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0948,
"ev": -0.2023,
"implied_prob": 0.5997,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.128,
"draw": 0.2723,
"home": 0.5997
},
"model_prob": 0.3424,
"p_final": 0.5049
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 7.4,
"edge": 0.2258,
"ev": 1.6709,
"implied_prob": 0.1351,
"model_prob": 0.3609
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.48,
"edge": 0.0093,
"ev": 0.0324,
"implied_prob": 0.2874,
"model_prob": 0.2967
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.58,
"edge": -0.2905,
"ev": -0.459,
"implied_prob": 0.6329,
"model_prob": 0.3424
}
},
"btts": {
"ev_available": false,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"ev_available": false,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"reliability": "low"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.3.1"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1718,
"best_outlier_ev": 1.6709,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1718,
"confidence": 6.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"guard_capped": true,
"score": 3.0,
"score_before_guard": 6.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 3.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 3.0
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "B",
"stake_factor": 0.5
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "wait",
"final_decision": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Acassuso, but the model still strongly favours Acassuso."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1718,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.016709,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"execution_confidence": 29,
"gates_failed": [
"Decision strength below 7"
],
"headline": "Wait",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Acassuso, but the model still strongly favours Acassuso.",
"model_lean": "Acassuso",
"outlier_detected": false,
"primary_allowed": false,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Acassuso, but the model still strongly favours Acassuso.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Decision strength below 7"
],
"reliability_score": 46,
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"tier": "wait",
"version": "v1"
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2967,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3609,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.04
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"guard_active": true,
"guard_level": "extreme",
"guard_message": "Model validation failed \u2014 value signals on 1X2 are not actionable until inputs are verified.",
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 7.4,
"decision": "guard_blocked",
"decision_before_guard": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0303,
"ev": 0.1718,
"guard_blocked": true,
"implied_prob": 0.128,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Acassuso"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1498644,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1718,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3609,
"draw": 0.2967,
"home": 0.3424
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Acassuso",
"home": "Racing C\u00f3rdoba"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.068203,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1718,
"implied_prob": 0.128,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "weak",
"risk_band": "speculative",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Acassuso",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": true
},
"valid_markets_count": 1
}
},
"fixture_id": 1498644,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-07-12T20:21:44.187552+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
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Buka analisis mendalam, tip pertaruhan eksklusif, dan ramalan perlawanan dengan perkhidmatan langganan premium kami.
Langgan Sekarang
Primera Nacional — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Morón | 29 | 16 | 7 | 6 | 55 |
| 2 | Ferro Carril Oeste | 29 | 16 | 7 | 6 | 55 |
| 3 | Godoy Cruz | 29 | 14 | 7 | 8 | 49 |
| 4 | Deportivo Madryn | 29 | 12 | 10 | 7 | 46 |
| 5 | Almirante Brown | 29 | 12 | 10 | 7 | 46 |
| 6 | Colón Santa Fe | 29 | 12 | 9 | 8 | 45 |
| 7 | CA Estudiantes | 29 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 39 |
| 8 | Ciudad de Bolívar | 29 | 9 | 12 | 8 | 39 |
| 9 | Los Andes | 29 | 8 | 13 | 8 | 37 |
| 10 | Racing Córdoba | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | 35 |
| 11 | Chaco For Ever | 29 | 8 | 9 | 12 | 33 |
| 12 | Defensores de Belgrano | 29 | 7 | 12 | 10 | 33 |
| 13 | Atlético Mitre | 29 | 6 | 14 | 9 | 32 |
| 14 | Central Norte | 29 | 6 | 13 | 10 | 31 |
| 15 | All Boys | 29 | 6 | 13 | 10 | 31 |
| 16 | San Telmo | 29 | 7 | 10 | 12 | 31 |
| 17 | San Miguel | 29 | 6 | 12 | 11 | 30 |
| 18 | Acassuso | 29 | 5 | 8 | 16 | 23 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Morón | 29 | 47 | 27 | +20 | 55 |
| 2 | Deportivo Madryn | 29 | 42 | 28 | +14 | 46 |
| 3 | Godoy Cruz | 29 | 36 | 25 | +11 | 49 |
| 4 | Colón Santa Fe | 29 | 35 | 25 | +10 | 45 |
| 5 | Ferro Carril Oeste | 29 | 34 | 25 | +9 | 55 |
| 6 | Atlético Mitre | 29 | 27 | 35 | -8 | 32 |
| 7 | CA Estudiantes | 29 | 26 | 25 | +1 | 39 |
| 8 | Chaco For Ever | 29 | 26 | 29 | -3 | 33 |
| 9 | Racing Córdoba | 29 | 26 | 34 | -8 | 35 |
| 10 | Ciudad de Bolívar | 29 | 24 | 26 | -2 | 39 |
| 11 | Almirante Brown | 29 | 23 | 16 | +7 | 46 |
| 12 | San Telmo | 29 | 23 | 33 | -10 | 31 |
| 13 | San Miguel | 29 | 23 | 33 | -10 | 30 |
| 14 | Los Andes | 29 | 22 | 17 | +5 | 37 |
| 15 | Defensores de Belgrano | 29 | 22 | 26 | -4 | 33 |
| 16 | Central Norte | 29 | 19 | 27 | -8 | 31 |
| 17 | Acassuso | 29 | 19 | 34 | -15 | 23 |
| 18 | All Boys | 29 | 16 | 25 | -9 | 31 |
