Turku PS vs KuPS Statistics & Analysis

Jun 17, 2026 - 15:00
1 1.73
2 2.09
xG Accuracy: 80%
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang

Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa

Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.

  • Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 matlamat) ✔ Betul
  • Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Betul
  • 1X2 KuPS KuPS ✔ Betul
  • Cerapan skor tepat 1-2, 1-1, 2-2, 2-1, 1-3 1-2 ✔ Betul

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 14:50 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1607954

Closing Odds 5.73
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result KuPS win · Turku PS 1–2 KuPS
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Intelijen pasaran

Bacaan selepas pilihan utama: bagaimana suapan penutup berprioriti bergerak berbanding model.

Ringkasan pasaran

Pasaran kekal stabil menjelang sepakan. Tiada anjakan implied ketara antara PRE30 dan PRE1 pada snapshot berprioriti.

Walaupun pergerakan lewat kecil, model masih menilai Turku PS (1X2),Lebih 2.5 gol jauh melebihi implied snapshot penutupan — bacaan statik "model vs harga", bukan kejaran steam.

Model masih melebihi implied penutupan pada Lebih 2.5 gol kira-kira 20.4 mata peratus — isyarat salah harga paling jelas pada halaman ini.

Model vs implied penutup

Pasaran Model % Implied penutup % Jurang (pp)
Turku PS (1X2) 27.0 16.8 +10.2
Lukis (1X2) 23.7 23.8 -0.1
KuPS (1X2) 49.3 59.4 -10.1
Lebih 2.5 gol 73.4 53.0 +20.4
Bawah 2.5 gol 26.6 47.0 -20.4
Apa maksudnya

Secara ringkas: model kira-kira 73.4% pada Lebih 2.5 gol, manakala snapshot penutup menunjukkan kira-kira 53.0%. Bezanya — kira-kira 20.4 mata peratus — ialah jurang model-vs-pasaran terbesar yang ditonjolkan di halaman ini.

Ringkas: "implied penutup" ialah kebarangkalian terbit daripada odds akhir yang ditangkap (selepas de-vig ringkas). "Jurang (pp)" = peratus model tolak implied tersebut, dalam mata peratus (pp).

Pergerakan garisan menjelang sepakan mula

Satu buku prioriti setiap snapshot (bukan semua). Laluan tangkapan: PRE30 → PRE1 · Buku: Pinnacle

Dalam kurungan pada lajur: Penutup = snapshot pertama tersedia ikut PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Awal = pertama dalam PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 yang berbeza daripada Penutup.

Odds terperinci dilipat di bawah — pergerakan implied (de-vig) boleh diabaikan.

Lihat jadual penuh baris demi baris
Pasaran Awal (PRE30) Penutup (PRE1) Δ tersirat (pp)
Turku PS (1X2) 5.73 5.73 0.0
Lukis (1X2) 4.04 4.04 0.0
KuPS (1X2) 1.62 1.62 0.0
Lebih 2.5 gol 1.83 1.83 0.0
Bawah 2.5 gol 2.06 2.06 0.0

Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.

View technical JSON
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        "alert_breadth_note": "12/13 sportsbooks confirmed",
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        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -20.65,
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          "market_prob": 47.55,
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          "outcome": "no"
        }
      ],
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        "edge_pp": 10.19,
        "fair_prob_pct": 26.98,
        "hero_side": "home",
        "hero_team_name": "Turku PS",
        "market_prob_pct": 16.79,
        "status": "strong_disagreement",
        "steam_team_name": "Turku PS"
      },
      "fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
      "fair_vs_market": {
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        "comparison_disabled": false,
        "degraded_note": "",
        "divergence_guard": {
          "divergence_level": "strong",
          "edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
          "max_gap_pp": 10.19,
          "suppress_hero": false,
          "suppress_value_language": false
        },
        "divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
        "divergence_level": "strong",
        "divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
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        "edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
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        "forecast_assessment": {
          "favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
          "favourite_label": "KuPS",
          "forecast_certainty_tier": "medium",
          "headline": "Slight edge match",
          "market_agreement_label": "Weak",
          "market_prob_pct": 59.4,
          "model_prob_pct": 49.3,
          "outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
          "paragraphs": [],
          "reliability_headline": "Use caution",
          "reliability_icon": "!",
          "reliability_tier": "caution",
          "summary": "Model and market lean the same side on KuPS, but pricing gaps warrant caution.",
          "tier": "slight_edge",
          "title": "Prediction Assessment",
          "validation_label": "Warning"
        },
        "forecast_certainty": {
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          "tier": "medium",
          "tier_label": "Medium"
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        "forecast_certainty_label": "Medium",
        "has_market_probs": true,
        "hero_edge_pp": 10.19,
        "hero_label": "Turku PS",
        "hero_side": "home",
        "market_activity": "Turku PS odds lengthened \u2191 +9.7%.",
        "market_agreement": "weak",
        "market_agreement_label": "Weak",
        "market_interpretation": {
          "bullets": [
            "The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.",
            "Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
          ],
          "follow_up": "",
          "gap_tier": "strong",
          "lead": "The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Turku PS.",
          "note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Turku PS.",
          "paragraphs": [
            "The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Turku PS.",
            "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Turku PS."
          ],
          "quiet_market": false,
          "title": "Market Assessment"
        },
        "market_narrative": {
          "paragraphs": [
            "The fair estimate favors Turku PS more strongly than current market pricing.",
            "Recent line movement on Turku PS (\u2191 +9.7%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
            "Broad sportsbook alignment (12/13) supports the current market view on Turku PS."
          ],
          "title": "Current Market Narrative"
        },
        "max_gap_pp": 10.19,
        "model_validation": {
          "score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
          "status": "warning"
        },
        "model_validation_label": "Warning",
        "outcome_separation": {
          "breakdown": [
            "No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
            "Favourite exceeds second outcome by 22.3 pp (at 49.3%)."
          ],
          "lead_gap_pp": 22.3,
          "max_prob_pct": 49.3,
          "note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
          "tier": "medium",
          "tier_label": "Medium"
        },
        "outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
        "rows": [
          {
            "edge_pp": 10.19,
            "fair_prob_pct": 26.98,
            "is_hero": true,
            "label": "Turku PS",
            "market_prob_pct": 16.79,
            "side": "home"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": -0.1,
            "fair_prob_pct": 23.72,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Draw",
            "market_prob_pct": 23.82,
            "side": "draw"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": -10.09,
            "fair_prob_pct": 49.3,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "KuPS",
            "market_prob_pct": 59.39,
            "side": "away"
          }
        ],
        "status": "strong_disagreement",
        "status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
        "steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Turku PS.",
        "unavailable_note": ""
      },
      "interpretation": {
        "has_conflict": true,
        "paragraphs": [
          "The betting market strongly prefers KuPS (59.4%).",
          "However, Turku PS has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2191 +9.7%, 12/13).",
          "This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 KuPS, Market \u2192 KuPS, Recent sharp money \u2192 Turku PS.",
          "Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
        ],
        "show": true,
        "title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
      },
      "lifecycle": {
        "closing_implied_pct": 17.45,
        "closing_odds": 5.73,
        "clv_pending": true,
        "clv_pp": 0.0,
        "clv_status": "pending",
        "context": "match",
        "current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
        "current_stage_detail": "",
        "current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
        "entry_implied_pct": 17.45,
        "entry_odds": 5.73,
        "model_validation_label": "Warning",
        "model_validation_status": "warning",
        "stages": [
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "forecast_generated",
            "label": "Prediction Generated",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "market_detected",
            "label": "Market Compared",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "model_validated",
            "label": "Validation Passed",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "PRE1",
            "id": "closing_recorded",
            "label": "Closing Recorded",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "clv_evaluated",
            "label": "CLV Evaluated",
            "status": "pending"
          }
        ]
      },
      "market_move_intelligence": {
        "books_reacting": 12,
        "books_total": 13,
        "breadth_display": "12/13",
        "clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
        "clv_status": "evaluated",
        "current_odds": 4.75,
        "move_context": "Largest move today",
        "move_display": "\u2191 +9.7%",
        "move_pct_abs": 9.7,
        "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
        "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 55h 47m",
        "narrative_paragraphs": [
          "Multi-book steam on Turku PS (9.7%, 12/13) \u2014 aligned shortening, not a single-book blip.",
          "Sharper sportsbooks initiated a solid move with growing cross-book confirmation."
        ],
        "narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
        "odds_path": {
          "display": "5.49 \u2192 3.95 \u2192 4.75",
          "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
          "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 55h 47m",
          "pick_team": "Turku PS",
          "points": [
            {
              "label_key": "open",
              "value": "5.49"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "extreme",
              "value": "3.95"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "current",
              "value": "4.75"
            }
          ],
          "sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,12.6",
          "sparkline_trend": "volatile",
          "sparkline_trend_label": "V-shape swing"
        },
        "open_odds": 4.33,
        "page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: Turku PS \u2191 +9.7% market move detected",
        "phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
        "phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
        "pick_team": "Turku PS",
        "ref_book": "Bet365",
        "seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: Turku PS \u2191 +9.7% market move detected",
        "sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
        "show": true,
        "signal_badge_class": "confirm",
        "signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc8",
        "signal_key": "market_steam",
        "signal_label": "Steam",
        "steam_score": 65,
        "steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
        "steam_tier": "A",
        "title": "Market Move Intelligence"
      },
      "market_overview": {
        "breadth_display": "12/13",
        "current_odds": 4.75,
        "move_display": "\u2191 +9.7%",
        "open_odds": 4.33,
        "pick_team": "Turku PS",
        "steam_score": 65,
        "steam_team_name": "Turku PS",
        "steam_tier": "A"
      },
      "premium_teaser": {
        "current_divergence_pp": 10.2,
        "divergence_label": "Current divergence",
        "title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
        "unlock_items": [
          "Historical similar matches",
          "Closing odds analysis",
          "CLV tracking",
          "Sharp money signals",
          "Market efficiency rating",
          "Historical model vs market results"
        ],
        "unlock_label": "Unlock"
      },
      "show": true
    },
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 1165,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1165.webp",
      "away_team_name": "KuPS",
      "country_code": "FI",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/fi.svg",
      "country_name": "Finland",
      "fixture_id": 1495706,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_country": "Finland",
      "home_team_id": 1168,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1168.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Turku PS",
      "league_country": "Finland",
      "league_id": 244,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/244.webp",
      "league_name": "Veikkausliiga",
      "league_season": 2026,
      "match_date": "2026-06-17 15:00:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS",
      "venue_city": "Turku",
      "venue_name": "Veritas Stadion"
    },
    "match_decision": {
      "confidence": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.5
      },
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.5092,
            "best_odd": 1.62,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0514,
            "ev": -0.1211,
            "implied_prob": 0.5939,
            "model_prob": 0.493,
            "p_final": 0.5426
          },
          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.1997,
            "best_odd": 4.04,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0002,
            "ev": -0.0386,
            "implied_prob": 0.2382,
            "model_prob": 0.2372,
            "p_final": 0.238
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.1694,
            "best_odd": 5.73,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0173,
            "ev": 0.0611,
            "implied_prob": 0.1679,
            "model_prob": 0.2698,
            "p_final": 0.1852
          }
        },
        "btts": {
          "best_no_odd": 2.0,
          "best_yes_odd": 1.8,
          "edge_no": -0.2065,
          "edge_yes": 0.2065,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_no": -0.462,
          "ev_yes": 0.3158,
          "implied_no": 0.4755,
          "implied_yes": 0.5245,
          "n_bookmakers": 10,
          "reliability": "medium"
        },
        "ou25": {
          "best_over_odd": 1.86,
          "best_under_odd": 2.05,
          "edge_over": 0.2118,
          "edge_under": -0.2118,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_over": 0.3652,
          "ev_under": -0.4547,
          "implied_over": 0.5222,
          "implied_under": 0.4778,
          "n_bookmakers": 11,
          "reliability": "medium"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 3.82,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.2.0"
      },
      "balanced_alternative": null,
      "best_tracked_ev": 0.3652,
      "confidence": 6.5,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
          "pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Primary line identified (+1.0)",
          "Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
          "Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.5
      },
      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": false,
        "1x2_open_contest": true,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
      },
      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
      },
      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
        "scoring_type": "high_scoring",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.731,
          "draw_prob": 0.2372,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.493,
          "over_prob": 0.734,
          "total_xg": 3.82,
          "under_prob": 0.266,
          "xg_diff": 0.36
        },
        "type": "high_scoring",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
      },
      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "longshot_picks": [
        {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "ev": 0.0611,
          "implied_prob": 0.1679,
          "market": "1x2",
          "model_prob": 0.2698,
          "not_dominant": true,
          "risk_band": "speculative",
          "risk_tier": "longshot",
          "side": "home",
          "side_label": "Turku PS",
          "slot": "longshot"
        }
      ],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "decision": "no_bet",
          "edge": -0.0514,
          "ev": -0.1211,
          "implied_prob": 0.5939,
          "max_ev_side": "home",
          "model_prob": 0.493,
          "side": "away",
          "side_label": "KuPS"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.2065,
          "ev": 0.3158,
          "implied_prob": 0.5245,
          "model_prob": 0.731,
          "side": "yes",
          "value_side": "yes"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.2118,
          "ev": 0.3652,
          "implied_prob": 0.5222,
          "model_prob": 0.734,
          "side": "over",
          "value_side": "over"
        }
      },
      "match_id": 1495706,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "bet",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": true,
        "code": "clear_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.3652,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 1.0,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.493,
        "draw": 0.2372,
        "home": 0.2698
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "no_ev_1x2",
        "high_total_goals",
        "longshot_high_variance"
      ],
      "secondary_pick": {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.3158,
        "implied_prob": 0.5245,
        "market": "btts",
        "model_prob": 0.731,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "secondary",
        "side": "yes",
        "slot": "secondary"
      },
      "secondary_picks": [
        {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "ev": 0.3158,
          "implied_prob": 0.5245,
          "market": "btts",
          "model_prob": 0.731,
          "not_dominant": false,
          "risk_band": "strong",
          "risk_tier": "secondary",
          "side": "yes",
          "slot": "secondary"
        }
      ],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "KuPS",
        "home": "Turku PS"
      },
      "top_pick": {
        "composite_score": 0.335071,
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.3652,
        "implied_prob": 0.5222,
        "market": "ou_2_5",
        "model_prob": 0.734,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "over",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
      },
      "valid_markets_count": 3
    }
  },
  "fixture_id": 1495706,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-06-17T14:59:19.010078+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}

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Veikkausliiga Veikkausliiga — Kedudukan
# PASUKAN P M S K Mata
1 KuPS 22 12 7 3 43
2 Inter Turku 22 11 9 2 42
3 HJK Helsinki 22 11 4 7 37
4 Gnistan 22 10 6 6 36
5 AC Oulu 22 10 4 8 34
6 VPS 22 9 6 7 33
7 Lahti 22 9 5 8 32
8 Turku PS 22 8 7 7 31
9 Ilves 22 7 4 11 25
10 SJK 22 4 7 11 19
11 FF Jaro 22 3 6 13 15
12 Mariehamn 22 3 5 14 14
# PASUKAN P J B +/- Mata
1 KuPS 22 38 23 +15 43
2 HJK Helsinki 22 36 27 +9 37
3 Gnistan 22 36 29 +7 36
4 Ilves 22 34 37 -3 25
5 Inter Turku 22 29 16 +13 42
6 VPS 22 29 22 +7 33
7 Turku PS 22 28 23 +5 31
8 Lahti 22 26 19 +7 32
9 AC Oulu 22 25 25 0 34
10 SJK 22 25 33 -8 19
11 FF Jaro 22 18 44 -26 15
12 Mariehamn 22 17 43 -26 14
# PASUKAN P xG xGC +/- Mata
1 Ilves 22 4.2 1.7 +2.5 25
2 AC Oulu 22 2.7 2.2 +0.5 34
3 HJK Helsinki 22 2.0 1.6 +0.4 37
4 KuPS 22 2.3 2.0 +0.3 43
5 SJK 22 2.5 2.4 +0.1 19
6 Lahti 22 2.4 2.5 -0.1 32
7 VPS 22 2.0 2.3 -0.3 33
8 Mariehamn 22 2.2 2.7 -0.5 14
9 Turku PS 22 0.9 1.6 -0.7 31
10 FF Jaro 22 2.4 4.6 -2.2 15
11 Inter Turku 22 — — — 42
12 Gnistan 22 — — — 36