Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Ya ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Bohemians Bohemians ✔ Betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-0, 2-0, 1-1, 2-1, 3-0 2-1 ✔ Betul
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.44
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Bohemians win · Bohemians 2–1 Drogheda United
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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"facts": {
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"afp_draw_prob": 0.2263,
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"away_win_prob": 0.1437,
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"bayes_applied": 1,
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"btts_yes_prob": 0.514,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
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"fair_odds_away": 6.96,
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"over_25_prob": 0.535,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
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},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Winner : Bohemians",
"main_pick_display": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Bohemians"
},
"away_xg": 0.88,
"betting_insight": {
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"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
"edge": -0.0343,
"edge_gap": 0.4031,
"market": "1X2",
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"pick_type": "no_value",
"probabilities": {
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},
"reason": "Model probability is not above market implied probability",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 1.44
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
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"bookmaker_id": 0,
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"label": "Home",
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"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
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"away_failed_to_score": 8,
"away_played": 30,
"away_score_rate": 58.5,
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"home_failed_to_score": 3,
"home_played": 30,
"home_score_rate": 85.6,
"no_prob": 48.6,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 51.4,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 51.4
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 0.88,
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"scores": [
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
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{
"away": 0,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 11.2
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 10.2
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{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.9
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 3,
"label": "3-0",
"prob": 7.3
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
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},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Bohemians or Drogheda United",
"prob": 77.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Drogheda United",
"prob": 37.0
}
],
"pick_key": "1X",
"pick_label": "Bohemians or Draw",
"pick_prob": 85.6
},
"match_winner": {
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"draw_pct": 22.6,
"home_pct": 63.0,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Bohemians"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.82,
"away_avg_scored": 1.2,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.8,
"over_prob": 53.5,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 53.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.82,
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},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
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"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 11.6,
"implied_prob": 20.2,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market": "Draw",
"model_prob": 22.6,
"odds": 4.94
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Drogheda United",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 14.25,
"draw": 19.35,
"home": 66.4
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-18 18:59:03",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-18 18:30:04",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Bohemians",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 66.4,
"gap_pp": -3.43,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 62.97
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 19.35,
"gap_pp": 3.3,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 22.65
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 14.25,
"gap_pp": 0.14,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 14.38
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 60.25,
"gap_pp": -6.75,
"kind": "ou_o",
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},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 39.75,
"gap_pp": 6.75,
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}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 1.44,
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"implied_early_pct": 66.4,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 4.94,
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{
"closing": 6.71,
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"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.57,
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{
"closing": 2.38,
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"implied_early_pct": 39.75,
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"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
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},
"correct_score_insight": {
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"lean_card": {
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"ev": -0.014,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-0",
"market_odds": 8.5,
"market_prob": 0.1176,
"market_prob_pct": 11.8,
"model_prob": 0.116,
"model_prob_pct": 11.6,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 11.6
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 11.6
},
{
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 11.2
},
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 10.2
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.9
},
{
"label": "3-0",
"prob": 7.3
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.94,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
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"alpha": 0.3774,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.35,
"edge": 0.0255,
"edge_pp": 2.6,
"market_prob": 0.3974,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
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"over": {
"alpha": 0.519,
"best_odd": 1.55,
"edge": -0.0351,
"ev": -0.1204,
"implied_prob": 0.6026,
"model_prob": 0.535,
"p_final": 0.5675
},
"p_final": 0.4229,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
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"alpha": 0.3774,
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"edge": 0.0255,
"ev": -0.0061,
"implied_prob": 0.3974,
"model_prob": 0.465,
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"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.16,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -16.0,
"text": "-16.0%"
},
"ev_under": 0.1393,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 13.9,
"text": "+13.9%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.1393,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over_prob": 53.5,
"sort_key": 10275.37,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 46.5,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved toward Drogheda United, but the model still strongly favours Bohemians.",
"consensus_odds": 1.44,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.072,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -7.2,
"text": "-7.2%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.664,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0129,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -1.3,
"text": "-1.3%"
},
"model_prob": 0.6297,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.4,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0932,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-9.3%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Bohemians",
"sort_key": 1796.775,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.5175,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.945,
"edge": 0.0049,
"edge_pp": 0.5,
"market_prob": 0.4764,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.486,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.5175,
"best_odd": 1.945,
"edge": 0.0049,
"ev": -0.0637,
"implied_prob": 0.4764,
"model_prob": 0.486,
"p_final": 0.4814
},
"p_final": 0.4814,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.0,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0547,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0637,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.5692,
"best_odd": 1.77,
"edge": -0.0054,
"ev": -0.0829,
"implied_prob": 0.5236,
"model_prob": 0.514,
"p_final": 0.5181
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.028,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -2.8,
"text": "-2.8%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.0748,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -7.5,
"text": "-7.5%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": -0.028,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no_prob": 48.6,
"sort_key": 1793.0,
"tier": "bad_ev",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 51.4
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 814.8,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-0",
"top_prob": 11.6
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "4/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "4/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -6.7%",
"alert_team": "Drogheda United",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 3.4,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -3.4,
"hero_label": "Bohemians",
"market_prob_pct": 66.4,
"market_team": "Bohemians",
"model_prob_pct": 63.0,
"model_team": "Bohemians",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 32,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.4,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Drogheda United, but the model still strongly favours Bohemians."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.4,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Drogheda United, but the model still strongly favours Bohemians."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1393,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1393,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.3,
"decision_strength_v1": 7.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 34,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Bohemians at 63.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 66.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Bohemians as the value side (63.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Drogheda United, but the model still strongly favours Bohemians.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Bohemians",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +13.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +13.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.3/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +13.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.3/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "77 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+13.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Drogheda United, but the model still strongly favours Bohemians.",
"Decision strength: 5.3/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 77,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Drogheda United, but the model still strongly favours Bohemians.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.072,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.2%",
"consensus_odds": 1.44,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.664,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.6297,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6944444444444444,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0932,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-9.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 43.7,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=1.06"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 1.06
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "4/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.4444444444444444,
"evidence": {
"score": 92,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Strong model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 5,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 23.3,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 4.4,
"steam_coherence": 2.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 77,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 3.4,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 3.4,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 0.88,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 44.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.94,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.94,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.94 \u00b7 Away xG 0.88 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +44%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -6.7,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -6.7%",
"steam_team": "Drogheda United",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 29,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 63,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 29,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward Drogheda United, but the model still strongly favours Bohemians.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.4,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Drogheda United, but the model still strongly favours Bohemians."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.4,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Drogheda United, but the model still strongly favours Bohemians."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1393,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1393,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.3,
"decision_strength_v1": 7.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 34,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Bohemians at 63.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 66.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Bohemians as the value side (63.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Drogheda United, but the model still strongly favours Bohemians.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Bohemians",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +13.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +13.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.3/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +13.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.3/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "77 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+13.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Drogheda United, but the model still strongly favours Bohemians.",
"Decision strength: 5.3/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 77,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Drogheda United, but the model still strongly favours Bohemians.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.072,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.2%",
"consensus_odds": 1.44,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.664,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.6297,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6944444444444444,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0932,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-9.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 43.7,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=1.06"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 1.06
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward Drogheda United, but the model still strongly favours Bohemians.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Bohemians 1.94 xG vs Drogheda United 0.88 \u2192 Bohemians 63.0%",
"Market: Bohemians ~66.4% implied",
"Market Steam: Drogheda United \u2193 -6.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Bohemians, but sharp money moved toward Drogheda United.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -3.4,
"fair_prob": 63.0,
"label": "Bohemians",
"market_prob": 66.4,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.28,
"fair_prob": 22.63,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 19.35,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.12,
"fair_prob": 14.37,
"label": "Drogheda United",
"market_prob": 14.25,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.85,
"fair_prob": 53.5,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 60.35,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.85,
"fair_prob": 46.5,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 39.65,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.86,
"fair_prob": 51.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 52.26,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.86,
"fair_prob": 48.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 47.74,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": -3.4,
"fair_prob_pct": 63.0,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Bohemians",
"market_prob_pct": 66.4,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "Drogheda United"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 3.4,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Favourite",
"favourite_label": "Bohemians",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "high",
"headline": "Clear favourite",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 66.4,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-3.4 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -3.4,
"model_prob_pct": 63.0,
"outcome_separation_tier": "high",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-3.4 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -3.4,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 77,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved toward Drogheda United, but the model still strongly favours Bohemians. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "favourite",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 29,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 63,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 29,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Bohemians 1.94 xG vs Drogheda United 0.88 \u2192 Bohemians 63.0%",
"Market: Bohemians ~66.4% implied",
"Market Steam: Drogheda United \u2193 -6.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Bohemians, but sharp money moved toward Drogheda United.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "One outcome clearly leads the model 1X2 grid.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "High",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -3.4,
"hero_label": "Bohemians",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Drogheda United odds shortened \u2193 -6.7%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Drogheda United, with odds shortening by 6.7%. Confirmation remains limited (4/9 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Buying interest on Drogheda United \u2014 odds shortened by 6.7%.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Drogheda United, with odds shortening by 6.7%. Confirmation remains limited (4/9 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"Buying interest on Drogheda United \u2014 odds shortened by 6.7%."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"At the same time, Drogheda United has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 6.7%.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (4/9), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 3.4,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 40.4 pp (at 63.0%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 40.4,
"max_prob_pct": 63.0,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "High",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Bohemians",
"largest_gap_pp": -3.4,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 3.4,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -3.4,
"edge_pp": -3.4,
"fair_prob_pct": 63.0,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Bohemians",
"market_prob_pct": 66.4,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.28,
"edge_pp": 3.28,
"fair_prob_pct": 22.63,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 19.35,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 0.12,
"edge_pp": 0.12,
"fair_prob_pct": 14.37,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Drogheda United",
"market_prob_pct": 14.25,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "Buying interest on Drogheda United \u2014 odds shortened by 6.7%.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Bohemians (66.4%).",
"Drogheda United has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2193 -6.7%, 4/9).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Bohemians, Market \u2192 Bohemians, Recent sharp money \u2192 Drogheda United.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 69.44,
"closing_odds": 1.44,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 69.44,
"entry_odds": 1.44,
"match_phase": "live",
"match_phase_detail": "1H",
"match_phase_display": "Live \u00b7 1H",
"match_phase_label": "Live",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 4,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -8.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": -8.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -7.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": -7.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -6.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -6.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -6.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -6.7
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "4/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 7.0,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -6.7%",
"move_pct_abs": 6.7,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 96h 1m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Volatile two-way pricing on Drogheda United (swing 8.10 \u2192 5.86 \u2192 7.00) \u2014 net 6.7% but intraday chop is elevated.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -6.7,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"7.50",
"7.11",
"6.71"
],
"display": "8.10 \u2192 5.86 \u2192 7.00",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 96h 1m",
"pick_team": "Drogheda United",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "8.10"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "5.86"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "7.00"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
7.5,
6.71,
7.0
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,18.0 56.0,11.4",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "7.50"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "6.71"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "7.50"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "7.00"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 7.5,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "Drogheda United",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 7.0,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -6.7%",
"open_odds": 7.5,
"summary": "Market moved toward Drogheda United while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Drogheda United",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 32,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "4/9",
"current_odds": 7.0,
"move_display": "\u2193 -6.7%",
"open_odds": 7.5,
"pick_team": "Drogheda United",
"steam_score": 32,
"steam_team_name": "Drogheda United",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 3.4,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "drogheda-united",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": 0,
"away_team_display_name": "Drogheda United",
"away_team_id": 3850,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/3850.webp",
"away_team_name": "Drogheda United",
"away_team_public_id": "1uqahXbozAN0ni",
"away_team_slug": "drogheda-united",
"country_code": "IE",
"country_display_name": "Ireland",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ie.svg",
"country_id": 77,
"country_name": "Ireland",
"fixture_id": 1492771,
"goals_away": 0,
"goals_home": 0,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": 0,
"home_team_country": "Ireland",
"home_team_display_name": "Bohemians",
"home_team_id": 3840,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/3840.webp",
"home_team_name": "Bohemians",
"home_team_public_id": "5indpyocL0Kf0v",
"home_team_slug": "bohemians",
"ht.home_team_slug": "bohemians",
"league_country": "Ireland",
"league_country_display": "Ireland",
"league_display_name": "Divisyen Perdana Ireland",
"league_id": 357,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/357.webp",
"league_name": "Divisyen Perdana Ireland",
"league_public_id": "1IkShdACEGEHBz",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-18 19:00:00",
"public_id": "5jssDWXQpokJZw",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "First Half",
"status_short": "1H",
"venue_city": "Dublin",
"venue_name": "Dalymount Park"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_strong_fav_1x2",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Strong favourite in 1X2 model (+1.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 9.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1996,
"best_odd": 6.71,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0003,
"ev": -0.0421,
"implied_prob": 0.1425,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1425,
"draw": 0.1935,
"home": 0.664
},
"model_prob": 0.1438,
"p_final": 0.1428
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1901,
"best_odd": 4.94,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0063,
"ev": -0.0129,
"implied_prob": 0.1935,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1425,
"draw": 0.1935,
"home": 0.664
},
"model_prob": 0.2265,
"p_final": 0.1998
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.5691,
"best_odd": 1.44,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0195,
"ev": -0.072,
"implied_prob": 0.664,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1425,
"draw": 0.1935,
"home": 0.664
},
"model_prob": 0.6297,
"p_final": 0.6444
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 6.71,
"edge": -0.0052,
"ev": -0.0348,
"implied_prob": 0.149,
"model_prob": 0.1438
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 4.94,
"edge": 0.0241,
"ev": 0.1189,
"implied_prob": 0.2024,
"model_prob": 0.2265
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.44,
"edge": -0.0648,
"ev": -0.0933,
"implied_prob": 0.6944,
"model_prob": 0.6297
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.5175,
"alpha_yes": 0.5692,
"best_no_odd": 2.0,
"best_yes_odd": 1.8,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0086,
"edge_yes": -0.0086,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.028,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0637,
"ev_yes": -0.0748,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0829,
"implied_no": 0.4774,
"implied_yes": 0.5226,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.5175,
"best_odd": 1.945,
"edge": 0.0049,
"ev": -0.0637,
"implied_prob": 0.4764,
"model_prob": 0.486,
"p_final": 0.4814
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.5692,
"best_odd": 1.77,
"edge": -0.0054,
"ev": -0.0829,
"implied_prob": 0.5236,
"model_prob": 0.514,
"p_final": 0.5181
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.4814,
"p_final_yes": 0.5181,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.519,
"alpha_under": 0.3774,
"best_over_odd": 1.57,
"best_under_odd": 2.45,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.55,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.35,
"edge_over": -0.0685,
"edge_under": 0.0685,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.16,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1204,
"ev_under": 0.1393,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0061,
"implied_over": 0.6035,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6026,
"implied_under": 0.3965,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3974,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.519,
"best_odd": 1.55,
"edge": -0.0351,
"ev": -0.1204,
"implied_prob": 0.6026,
"model_prob": 0.535,
"p_final": 0.5675
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.3774,
"best_odd": 2.35,
"edge": 0.0255,
"ev": -0.0061,
"implied_prob": 0.3974,
"model_prob": 0.465,
"p_final": 0.4229
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5675,
"p_final_under": 0.4229,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.82,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1393,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1393,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1393,
"confidence": 7.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 5.3,
"score_v1_legacy": 7.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.8,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 5.3,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.8
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.4,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Drogheda United, but the model still strongly favours Bohemians."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1393,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1393,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.3,
"decision_strength_v1": 7.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 34,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Bohemians at 63.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 66.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Bohemians as the value side (63.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Drogheda United, but the model still strongly favours Bohemians.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Bohemians",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +13.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +13.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.3/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +13.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.3/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "77 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+13.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Drogheda United, but the model still strongly favours Bohemians.",
"Decision strength: 5.3/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 77,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Drogheda United, but the model still strongly favours Bohemians.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.072,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.2%",
"consensus_odds": 1.44,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.664,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.6297,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6944444444444444,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0932,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-9.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 43.7,
"reasons": [
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],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 1.06
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5f3a\u4fe1\u53f7\uff08\u4f4e\u65b9\u5dee\uff09",
"scoring_type": "strong_signal",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.514,
"draw_prob": 0.2265,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.6297,
"over_prob": 0.535,
"total_xg": 2.82,
"under_prob": 0.465,
"xg_diff": 1.06
},
"type": "strong_signal",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.44,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0195,
"ev": -0.072,
"implied_prob": 0.664,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.6297,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Bohemians"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
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"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.945,
"edge": 0.0049,
"market_prob": 0.4764,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.486,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.5175,
"best_odd": 1.945,
"edge": 0.0049,
"ev": -0.0637,
"implied_prob": 0.4764,
"model_prob": 0.486,
"p_final": 0.4814
},
"p_final": 0.4814,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0637,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.5692,
"best_odd": 1.77,
"edge": -0.0054,
"ev": -0.0829,
"implied_prob": 0.5236,
"model_prob": 0.514,
"p_final": 0.5181
}
},
"edge": 0.0086,
"ev": -0.028,
"implied_prob": 0.4774,
"model_prob": 0.486,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.3774,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.35,
"edge": 0.0255,
"market_prob": 0.3974,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.465,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.519,
"best_odd": 1.55,
"edge": -0.0351,
"ev": -0.1204,
"implied_prob": 0.6026,
"model_prob": 0.535,
"p_final": 0.5675
},
"p_final": 0.4229,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0061,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.3774,
"best_odd": 2.35,
"edge": 0.0255,
"ev": -0.0061,
"implied_prob": 0.3974,
"model_prob": 0.465,
"p_final": 0.4229
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0685,
"ev": 0.1393,
"implied_prob": 0.3965,
"model_prob": 0.465,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1492771,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1393,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.1438,
"draw": 0.2265,
"home": 0.6297
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Drogheda United",
"home": "Bohemians"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.064775,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1393,
"implied_prob": 0.3965,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.465,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.072,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.2%",
"consensus_odds": 1.44,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.664,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.6297,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6944444444444444,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0932,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-9.3%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1492771,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-18T19:34:47.998807+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Langgan Sekarang
Divisyen Perdana Ireland — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St Patrick's Athletic | 32 | 17 | 8 | 7 | 59 |
| 2 | Shamrock Rovers | 31 | 17 | 8 | 6 | 59 |
| 3 | Bohemians | 31 | 16 | 8 | 7 | 56 |
| 4 | Derry City | 32 | 9 | 14 | 9 | 41 |
| 5 | Dundalk | 32 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 41 |
| 6 | Shelbourne | 32 | 9 | 13 | 10 | 40 |
| 7 | Galway United | 32 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 38 |
| 8 | Waterford | 32 | 7 | 13 | 12 | 34 |
| 9 | Drogheda United | 32 | 8 | 10 | 14 | 34 |
| 10 | Sligo Rovers | 32 | 5 | 8 | 19 | 23 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bohemians | 31 | 55 | 37 | +18 | 56 |
| 2 | St Patrick's Athletic | 32 | 52 | 25 | +27 | 59 |
| 3 | Shamrock Rovers | 31 | 49 | 31 | +18 | 59 |
| 4 | Dundalk | 32 | 49 | 53 | -4 | 41 |
| 5 | Derry City | 32 | 45 | 42 | +3 | 41 |
| 6 | Waterford | 32 | 44 | 54 | -10 | 34 |
| 7 | Shelbourne | 32 | 42 | 45 | -3 | 40 |
| 8 | Galway United | 32 | 42 | 48 | -6 | 38 |
| 9 | Drogheda United | 32 | 38 | 51 | -13 | 34 |
| 10 | Sligo Rovers | 32 | 24 | 54 | -30 | 23 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | xG | xGC | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Waterford | 32 | 13.0 | 7.8 | +5.2 | 34 |
| 2 | St Patrick's Athletic | 32 | 12.6 | 8.9 | +3.7 | 59 |
| 3 | Bohemians | 31 | 11.5 | 8.2 | +3.3 | 56 |
| 4 | Derry City | 32 | 10.8 | 7.8 | +3.0 | 41 |
| 5 | Shamrock Rovers | 31 | 9.7 | 8.2 | +1.5 | 59 |
| 6 | Dundalk | 32 | 13.0 | 12.1 | +0.9 | 41 |
| 7 | Galway United | 32 | 10.9 | 13.0 | -2.1 | 38 |
| 8 | Shelbourne | 32 | 6.2 | 9.8 | -3.6 | 40 |
| 9 | Drogheda United | 32 | 6.4 | 12.3 | -5.9 | 34 |
| 10 | Sligo Rovers | 32 | 8.0 | 14.1 | -6.1 | 23 |
