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Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 matlamat) ✔ Betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Tidak ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Shelbourne Bohemians ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 2-0, 3-0, 1-0, 2-1, 3-1 0-3 ✖ tak betul
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.75
AI Fair Odds
1.55
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Bohemians win · Shelbourne 0–3 Bohemians
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Probability Calibration
- Expected: 64.5%
- Historical Bucket: 60–65% — Building sample
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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"prediction_confidence": "high",
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"risk_color": "#ff9800",
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},
"closing_line_bundle": {
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{
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{
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"ev_under": null,
"ev_under_display": null,
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"id": "ou_2_5",
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"sort_key": 4050.0,
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"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "no_bet",
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"ev_yes": null,
"ev_yes_display": null,
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
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"sort_key": 2050.0,
"tier": "pass",
"value_side": "no",
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{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 816.3,
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],
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"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
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"has_alert": false,
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"market_team": "Bohemians",
"model_prob_pct": 64.4,
"model_team": "Shelbourne",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
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"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
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"title": "Betting Signal"
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"edge_rows": [
{
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"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
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{
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"label": "Draw",
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"outcome": "draw"
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{
"edge_pp": -21.55,
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"market_prob": 35.24,
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"outcome": "away"
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{
"edge_pp": null,
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"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
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{
"edge_pp": null,
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"outcome": "under"
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{
"edge_pp": null,
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"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": null,
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"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
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"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": null,
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"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "extreme_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 29.43,
"fair_prob_pct": 64.41,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Shelbourne",
"market_prob_pct": 34.98,
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"steam_team_name": "Shelbourne"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
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"comparison_disabled": false,
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
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"suppress_value_language": true
},
"divergence_label": "Extreme model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"divergence_level_label": "Extreme divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs substantially from current market pricing. Large divergences can occur when rating inputs are incomplete, team-strength estimates are uncertain, or the market incorporates information not present in the model. Interpret with caution.",
"divergence_tier": "extreme",
"edge_label": "Extreme disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "extreme_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Favourite",
"favourite_label": "Shelbourne",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "high",
"headline": "Clear favourite",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_prob_pct": 35.0,
"model_prob_pct": 64.4,
"outcome_separation_tier": "high",
"paragraphs": [],
"reliability_headline": "Use caution",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_tier": "caution",
"summary": "Model and market lean the same side on Shelbourne, but pricing gaps warrant caution.",
"tier": "favourite",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning"
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "One outcome clearly leads the model 1X2 grid.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "High",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 29.43,
"hero_label": "Shelbourne",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
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"market_interpretation": {},
"market_narrative": {},
"max_gap_pp": 29.43,
"model_validation": {
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"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
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],
"lead_gap_pp": 42.5,
"max_prob_pct": 64.4,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "High",
"rows": [
{
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"market_prob_pct": 34.98,
"side": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.88,
"fair_prob_pct": 21.9,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 29.78,
"side": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -21.55,
"fair_prob_pct": 13.69,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Bohemians",
"market_prob_pct": 35.24,
"side": "away"
}
],
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Bohemians (35.0%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Shelbourne, Market \u2192 Bohemians, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 36.36,
"closing_odds": 2.75,
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 36.36,
"entry_odds": 2.75,
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
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{
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{
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"id": "market_detected",
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{
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{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
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{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
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]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
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},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "12/14",
"current_odds": 2.6,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 2.6,
"pick_team": "Shelbourne",
"steam_score": 26,
"steam_team_name": "Shelbourne",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 29.4,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
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"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
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],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 3840,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/3840.webp",
"away_team_name": "Bohemians",
"country_code": "IE",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ie.svg",
"country_name": "Ireland",
"fixture_id": 1492736,
"goals_away": 2,
"goals_home": 0,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_country": "Ireland",
"home_team_id": 3854,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/3854.webp",
"home_team_name": "Shelbourne",
"league_country": "Ireland",
"league_id": 357,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/357.webp",
"league_name": "Divisyen Perdana Ireland",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-06-22 18:45:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "First Half",
"status_short": "1H",
"venue_city": "Dublin",
"venue_name": "Tolka Park"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_strong_fav_1x2",
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],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Strong favourite in 1X2 model (+1.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 9.0
},
"markets": {
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"away": {
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"best_odd": 2.73,
"calibration": {
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"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0656,
"ev": -0.2172,
"implied_prob": 0.3524,
"model_prob": 0.1369,
"p_final": 0.2867
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2644,
"best_odd": 3.23,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0209,
"ev": -0.1057,
"implied_prob": 0.2978,
"model_prob": 0.2186,
"p_final": 0.2769
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2511,
"best_odd": 2.75,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.074,
"ev": 0.1655,
"implied_prob": 0.3498,
"model_prob": 0.6445,
"p_final": 0.4238
}
},
"btts": {
"ev_available": false,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"ev_available": false,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"reliability": "low"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.26,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1655,
"confidence": 7.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)"
],
"score": 7.0
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
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"scoring_type": "strong_signal",
"signals": {
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"draw_prob": 0.2186,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.6445,
"over_prob": 0.632,
"total_xg": 3.26,
"under_prob": 0.368,
"xg_diff": 1.76
},
"type": "strong_signal",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.074,
"ev": 0.1655,
"implied_prob": 0.3498,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.6445,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Shelbourne"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.506,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "lean",
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.632,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1492736,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1655,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.1369,
"draw": 0.2186,
"home": 0.6445
},
"reason_codes": [
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Bohemians",
"home": "Shelbourne"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.127998,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1655,
"implied_prob": 0.3498,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.6445,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Shelbourne",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1
}
},
"fixture_id": 1492736,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-06-22T19:28:19.523651+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Langgan Sekarang
Divisyen Perdana Ireland — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St Patrick's Athletic | 32 | 17 | 8 | 7 | 59 |
| 2 | Shamrock Rovers | 31 | 17 | 8 | 6 | 59 |
| 3 | Bohemians | 31 | 16 | 8 | 7 | 56 |
| 4 | Derry City | 32 | 9 | 14 | 9 | 41 |
| 5 | Dundalk | 32 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 41 |
| 6 | Shelbourne | 32 | 9 | 13 | 10 | 40 |
| 7 | Galway United | 32 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 38 |
| 8 | Waterford | 32 | 7 | 13 | 12 | 34 |
| 9 | Drogheda United | 32 | 8 | 10 | 14 | 34 |
| 10 | Sligo Rovers | 32 | 5 | 8 | 19 | 23 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bohemians | 31 | 55 | 37 | +18 | 56 |
| 2 | St Patrick's Athletic | 32 | 52 | 25 | +27 | 59 |
| 3 | Shamrock Rovers | 31 | 49 | 31 | +18 | 59 |
| 4 | Dundalk | 32 | 49 | 53 | -4 | 41 |
| 5 | Derry City | 32 | 45 | 42 | +3 | 41 |
| 6 | Waterford | 32 | 44 | 54 | -10 | 34 |
| 7 | Shelbourne | 32 | 42 | 45 | -3 | 40 |
| 8 | Galway United | 32 | 42 | 48 | -6 | 38 |
| 9 | Drogheda United | 32 | 38 | 51 | -13 | 34 |
| 10 | Sligo Rovers | 32 | 24 | 54 | -30 | 23 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | xG | xGC | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Waterford | 32 | 13.0 | 7.8 | +5.2 | 34 |
| 2 | St Patrick's Athletic | 32 | 12.6 | 8.9 | +3.7 | 59 |
| 3 | Bohemians | 31 | 11.5 | 8.2 | +3.3 | 56 |
| 4 | Derry City | 32 | 10.8 | 7.8 | +3.0 | 41 |
| 5 | Shamrock Rovers | 31 | 9.7 | 8.2 | +1.5 | 59 |
| 6 | Dundalk | 32 | 13.0 | 12.1 | +0.9 | 41 |
| 7 | Galway United | 32 | 10.9 | 13.0 | -2.1 | 38 |
| 8 | Shelbourne | 32 | 6.2 | 9.8 | -3.6 | 40 |
| 9 | Drogheda United | 32 | 6.4 | 12.3 | -5.9 | 34 |
| 10 | Sligo Rovers | 32 | 8.0 | 14.1 | -6.1 | 23 |
