Waterford vs Sligo Rovers Statistics & Analysis

Jun 12, 2026 - 18:45
4 2.33
0 1.09
xG Accuracy: 47%
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang

Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa

Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.

  • Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 matlamat) ✔ Betul
  • Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Tidak ✖ tak betul
  • 1X2 Waterford Waterford ✔ Betul
  • Cerapan skor tepat 2-1, 2-0, 1-1, 1-0, 3-1 4-0 ✖ tak betul

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 17:17 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1620473

Closing Odds 2.05
AI Fair Odds 1.56
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Waterford win · Waterford 4–0 Sligo Rovers
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Probability Calibration

  • Expected: 64.0%
  • Historical Bucket: 60–65% — Building sample

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Intelijen pasaran

Bacaan selepas pilihan utama: bagaimana suapan penutup berprioriti bergerak berbanding model.

Ringkasan pasaran

Pasaran kekal stabil menjelang sepakan. Tiada anjakan implied ketara antara PRE30 dan PRE1 pada snapshot berprioriti.

Walaupun pergerakan lewat kecil, model masih menilai Waterford (1X2),Lebih 2.5 gol jauh melebihi implied snapshot penutupan — bacaan statik "model vs harga", bukan kejaran steam.

Model masih melebihi implied penutupan pada Waterford (1X2) kira-kira 17.1 mata peratus — isyarat salah harga paling jelas pada halaman ini.

Model vs implied penutup

Pasaran Model % Implied penutup % Jurang (pp)
Waterford (1X2) 64.0 46.9 +17.1
Lukis (1X2) 20.7 27.0 -6.3
Sligo Rovers (1X2) 15.2 26.1 -10.8
Lebih 2.5 gol 66.4 52.8 +13.6
Bawah 2.5 gol 33.6 47.2 -13.6
Apa maksudnya

Secara ringkas: model kira-kira 64.0% pada Waterford (1X2), manakala snapshot penutup menunjukkan kira-kira 46.9%. Bezanya — kira-kira 17.1 mata peratus — ialah jurang model-vs-pasaran terbesar yang ditonjolkan di halaman ini.

Ringkas: "implied penutup" ialah kebarangkalian terbit daripada odds akhir yang ditangkap (selepas de-vig ringkas). "Jurang (pp)" = peratus model tolak implied tersebut, dalam mata peratus (pp).

Pergerakan garisan menjelang sepakan mula

Satu buku prioriti setiap snapshot (bukan semua). Laluan tangkapan: PRE30 → PRE1 · Buku: Pinnacle

Dalam kurungan pada lajur: Penutup = snapshot pertama tersedia ikut PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Awal = pertama dalam PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 yang berbeza daripada Penutup.

Odds terperinci dilipat di bawah — pergerakan implied (de-vig) boleh diabaikan.

Lihat jadual penuh baris demi baris
Pasaran Awal (PRE30) Penutup (PRE1) Δ tersirat (pp)
Waterford (1X2) 2.05 2.05 0.0
Lukis (1X2) 3.56 3.56 0.0
Sligo Rovers (1X2) 3.69 3.69 0.0
Lebih 2.5 gol 1.83 1.83 0.0
Bawah 2.5 gol 2.05 2.05 0.0

Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.

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    ],
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        "alert_breadth_note": "14/14 sportsbooks confirmed",
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        },
        {
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          "fair_prob": 39.0,
          "label": "BTTS No",
          "market_prob": 44.34,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "no"
        }
      ],
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        "edge_pp": 17.04,
        "fair_prob_pct": 63.96,
        "hero_side": "home",
        "hero_team_name": "Waterford",
        "market_prob_pct": 46.92,
        "status": "strong_disagreement",
        "steam_team_name": "Sligo Rovers"
      },
      "fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
      "fair_vs_market": {
        "comparison_available": true,
        "comparison_disabled": false,
        "degraded_note": "",
        "divergence_guard": {
          "divergence_level": "strong",
          "edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
          "max_gap_pp": 17.04,
          "suppress_hero": false,
          "suppress_value_language": false
        },
        "divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
        "divergence_level": "strong",
        "divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
        "divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
        "divergence_tier": "strong",
        "edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
        "edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
        "fair_confidence": "medium",
        "fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
        "fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
        "forecast_assessment": {
          "favourite_class": "Favourite",
          "favourite_label": "Waterford",
          "forecast_certainty_tier": "high",
          "headline": "Clear favourite",
          "market_agreement_label": "Weak",
          "market_prob_pct": 46.9,
          "model_prob_pct": 64.0,
          "outcome_separation_tier": "high",
          "paragraphs": [],
          "reliability_headline": "Use caution",
          "reliability_icon": "!",
          "reliability_tier": "caution",
          "summary": "Model and market lean the same side on Waterford, but pricing gaps warrant caution.",
          "tier": "favourite",
          "title": "Forecast Assessment",
          "validation_label": "Warning"
        },
        "forecast_certainty": {
          "note": "One outcome clearly leads the model 1X2 grid.",
          "tier": "high",
          "tier_label": "High"
        },
        "forecast_certainty_label": "High",
        "has_market_probs": true,
        "hero_edge_pp": 17.04,
        "hero_label": "Waterford",
        "hero_side": "home",
        "market_activity": "Sligo Rovers odds lengthened \u2191 +9.7%.",
        "market_agreement": "weak",
        "market_agreement_label": "Weak",
        "market_interpretation": {
          "bullets": [
            "The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.",
            "Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
          ],
          "follow_up": "However, Sligo Rovers has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 9.7%, suggesting weakening support.",
          "gap_tier": "strong",
          "lead": "The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Waterford.",
          "note": "Drift away from Sligo Rovers \u2014 odds lengthened by 9.7% (weakening support).",
          "paragraphs": [
            "The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Waterford.",
            "However, Sligo Rovers has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 9.7%, suggesting weakening support.",
            "Drift away from Sligo Rovers \u2014 odds lengthened by 9.7% (weakening support)."
          ],
          "quiet_market": false,
          "title": "Market Assessment"
        },
        "market_narrative": {
          "paragraphs": [
            "The fair estimate favors Waterford more strongly than current market pricing.",
            "At the same time, Sligo Rovers has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 9.7%, suggesting weakening support.",
            "Broad sportsbook alignment (14/14) supports the current market view on Sligo Rovers."
          ],
          "title": "Current Market Narrative"
        },
        "max_gap_pp": 17.04,
        "model_validation": {
          "score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
          "status": "warning"
        },
        "model_validation_label": "Warning",
        "outcome_separation": {
          "breakdown": [
            "Favourite exceeds second outcome by 43.2 pp (at 64.0%)."
          ],
          "lead_gap_pp": 43.2,
          "max_prob_pct": 64.0,
          "note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
          "tier": "high",
          "tier_label": "High"
        },
        "outcome_separation_label": "High",
        "rows": [
          {
            "edge_pp": 17.04,
            "fair_prob_pct": 63.96,
            "is_hero": true,
            "label": "Waterford",
            "market_prob_pct": 46.92,
            "side": "home"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": -6.25,
            "fair_prob_pct": 20.77,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Draw",
            "market_prob_pct": 27.02,
            "side": "draw"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": -10.79,
            "fair_prob_pct": 15.28,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Sligo Rovers",
            "market_prob_pct": 26.07,
            "side": "away"
          }
        ],
        "status": "strong_disagreement",
        "status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
        "steam_note": "Drift away from Sligo Rovers \u2014 odds lengthened by 9.7% (weakening support).",
        "unavailable_note": ""
      },
      "interpretation": {
        "has_conflict": true,
        "paragraphs": [
          "The betting market strongly prefers Waterford (46.9%).",
          "However, Sligo Rovers has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2191 +9.7%, 14/14).",
          "This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Waterford, Market \u2192 Waterford, Recent sharp money \u2192 Sligo Rovers.",
          "Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
        ],
        "show": true,
        "title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
      },
      "lifecycle": {
        "closing_implied_pct": 48.78,
        "closing_odds": 2.05,
        "clv_pending": true,
        "clv_pp": 0.0,
        "clv_status": "pending",
        "context": "match",
        "current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
        "current_stage_detail": "",
        "current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
        "entry_implied_pct": 48.78,
        "entry_odds": 2.05,
        "model_validation_label": "Warning",
        "model_validation_status": "warning",
        "stages": [
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "forecast_generated",
            "label": "Forecast Generated",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "market_detected",
            "label": "Market Compared",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "model_validated",
            "label": "Validation Passed",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "PRE1",
            "id": "closing_recorded",
            "label": "Closing Recorded",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "clv_evaluated",
            "label": "CLV Evaluated",
            "status": "pending"
          }
        ]
      },
      "market_move_intelligence": {
        "books_reacting": 14,
        "books_total": 14,
        "breadth_display": "14/14",
        "clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
        "clv_status": "evaluated",
        "current_odds": 3.4,
        "move_context": "Largest move today",
        "move_display": "\u2191 +9.7%",
        "move_pct_abs": 9.7,
        "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
        "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 15h 59m",
        "narrative_paragraphs": [
          "Multi-book steam on Sligo Rovers (9.7%, 14/14) \u2014 aligned shortening, not a single-book blip.",
          "Sharper sportsbooks initiated a solid move with growing cross-book confirmation."
        ],
        "narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
        "odds_path": {
          "display": "3.69 \u2192 2.95 \u2192 3.40",
          "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
          "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 15h 59m",
          "pick_team": "Sligo Rovers",
          "points": [
            {
              "label_key": "open",
              "value": "3.69"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "extreme",
              "value": "2.95"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "current",
              "value": "3.40"
            }
          ],
          "sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,8.8",
          "sparkline_trend": "up",
          "sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise"
        },
        "open_odds": 3.1,
        "page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: Sligo Rovers \u2191 +9.7% market move detected",
        "phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
        "phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
        "pick_team": "Sligo Rovers",
        "ref_book": "Bet365",
        "seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: Sligo Rovers \u2191 +9.7% market move detected",
        "sharp_leader": "Betfair",
        "show": true,
        "signal_badge_class": "confirm",
        "signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc8",
        "signal_key": "market_steam",
        "signal_label": "Steam",
        "steam_score": 67,
        "steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
        "steam_tier": "A",
        "title": "Market Move Intelligence"
      },
      "market_overview": {
        "breadth_display": "14/14",
        "current_odds": 3.4,
        "move_display": "\u2191 +9.7%",
        "open_odds": 3.1,
        "pick_team": "Sligo Rovers",
        "steam_score": 67,
        "steam_team_name": "Sligo Rovers",
        "steam_tier": "A"
      },
      "premium_teaser": {
        "current_divergence_pp": 17.0,
        "divergence_label": "Current divergence",
        "title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
        "unlock_items": [
          "Historical similar matches",
          "Closing odds analysis",
          "CLV tracking",
          "Sharp money signals",
          "Market efficiency rating",
          "Historical model vs market results"
        ],
        "unlock_label": "Unlock"
      },
      "show": true
    },
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 3842,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/3842.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Sligo Rovers",
      "country_code": "IE",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/ie.svg",
      "country_name": "Ireland",
      "fixture_id": 1492715,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_country": "Ireland",
      "home_team_id": 3845,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/3845.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Waterford",
      "league_country": "Ireland",
      "league_id": 357,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/357.webp",
      "league_name": "Divisyen Perdana Ireland",
      "league_season": 2026,
      "match_date": "2026-06-12 18:45:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS",
      "venue_city": "Waterford",
      "venue_name": "Regional Sports Centre"
    },
    "match_decision": {
      "confidence": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_md_strong_fav_1x2",
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Strong favourite in 1X2 model (+1.5)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 9.0
      },
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.2513,
            "best_odd": 3.69,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0272,
            "ev": -0.1385,
            "implied_prob": 0.2607,
            "model_prob": 0.1525,
            "p_final": 0.2335
          },
          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.2717,
            "best_odd": 3.56,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0171,
            "ev": -0.0991,
            "implied_prob": 0.2702,
            "model_prob": 0.2072,
            "p_final": 0.2531
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.3345,
            "best_odd": 2.05,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0572,
            "ev": 0.0791,
            "implied_prob": 0.4692,
            "model_prob": 0.6403,
            "p_final": 0.5264
          }
        },
        "btts": {
          "best_no_odd": 2.2,
          "best_yes_odd": 1.7,
          "edge_no": -0.0534,
          "edge_yes": 0.0534,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_no": -0.142,
          "ev_yes": 0.037,
          "implied_no": 0.4434,
          "implied_yes": 0.5566,
          "n_bookmakers": 11,
          "reliability": "medium"
        },
        "ou25": {
          "best_over_odd": 1.89,
          "best_under_odd": 2.05,
          "edge_over": 0.1444,
          "edge_under": -0.1444,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_over": 0.255,
          "ev_under": -0.3112,
          "implied_over": 0.5196,
          "implied_under": 0.4804,
          "n_bookmakers": 12,
          "reliability": "medium"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 3.42,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.2.0"
      },
      "balanced_alternative": null,
      "best_tracked_ev": 0.255,
      "confidence": 7.5,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
          "pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Primary line identified (+1.0)",
          "Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
          "Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 7.5
      },
      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": true,
        "1x2_open_contest": false,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
      },
      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
      },
      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u5f3a\u4fe1\u53f7\uff08\u4f4e\u65b9\u5dee\uff09",
        "scoring_type": "strong_signal",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.61,
          "draw_prob": 0.2072,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.6403,
          "over_prob": 0.664,
          "total_xg": 3.42,
          "under_prob": 0.336,
          "xg_diff": 1.24
        },
        "type": "strong_signal",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
      },
      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.0572,
          "ev": 0.0791,
          "implied_prob": 0.4692,
          "max_ev_side": "home",
          "model_prob": 0.6403,
          "side": "home",
          "side_label": "Waterford"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.0534,
          "ev": 0.037,
          "implied_prob": 0.5566,
          "model_prob": 0.61,
          "side": "yes",
          "value_side": "yes"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.1444,
          "ev": 0.255,
          "implied_prob": 0.5196,
          "model_prob": 0.664,
          "side": "over",
          "value_side": "over"
        }
      },
      "match_id": 1492715,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "bet",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": true,
        "code": "clear_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.255,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 1.0,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.1525,
        "draw": 0.2072,
        "home": 0.6403
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "high_total_goals"
      ],
      "secondary_pick": null,
      "secondary_picks": [],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Sligo Rovers",
        "home": "Waterford"
      },
      "top_pick": {
        "composite_score": 0.16932,
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.255,
        "implied_prob": 0.5196,
        "market": "ou_2_5",
        "model_prob": 0.664,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "over",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
      },
      "valid_markets_count": 3
    }
  },
  "fixture_id": 1492715,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-06-12T18:44:10.103686+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}

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Divisyen Perdana Ireland Divisyen Perdana Ireland — Kedudukan
# PASUKAN P M S K Mata
1 St Patrick's Athletic 32 17 8 7 59
2 Shamrock Rovers 31 17 8 6 59
3 Bohemians 31 16 8 7 56
4 Derry City 32 9 14 9 41
5 Dundalk 32 10 11 11 41
6 Shelbourne 32 9 13 10 40
7 Galway United 32 9 11 12 38
8 Waterford 32 7 13 12 34
9 Drogheda United 32 8 10 14 34
10 Sligo Rovers 32 5 8 19 23
# PASUKAN P J B +/- Mata
1 Bohemians 31 55 37 +18 56
2 St Patrick's Athletic 32 52 25 +27 59
3 Shamrock Rovers 31 49 31 +18 59
4 Dundalk 32 49 53 -4 41
5 Derry City 32 45 42 +3 41
6 Waterford 32 44 54 -10 34
7 Shelbourne 32 42 45 -3 40
8 Galway United 32 42 48 -6 38
9 Drogheda United 32 38 51 -13 34
10 Sligo Rovers 32 24 54 -30 23
# PASUKAN P xG xGC +/- Mata
1 Waterford 32 13.0 7.8 +5.2 34
2 St Patrick's Athletic 32 12.6 8.9 +3.7 59
3 Bohemians 31 11.5 8.2 +3.3 56
4 Derry City 32 10.8 7.8 +3.0 41
5 Shamrock Rovers 31 9.7 8.2 +1.5 59
6 Dundalk 32 13.0 12.1 +0.9 41
7 Galway United 32 10.9 13.0 -2.1 38
8 Shelbourne 32 6.2 9.8 -3.6 40
9 Drogheda United 32 6.4 12.3 -5.9 34
10 Sligo Rovers 32 8.0 14.1 -6.1 23
Divisyen Perdana Ireland Ireland. Divisyen Perdana Ireland Ramalan