Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 matlamat) ✔ Betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Chapecoense Internacional ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Betul
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Internacional win · Chapecoense 1–2 Internacional
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "31c46d1d4442c03117060b50e93cc272caf93b8c721dd3982821094446563410",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.27,
"away_win_prob": 0.3168,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.435,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.565,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2882,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 3.16,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.47,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.53,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.44,
"home_win_prob": 0.395,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.509,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"under_25_prob": 0.491
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Internacional",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Internacional"
},
"away_xg": 1.27,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Chapecoense",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.1486,
"edge_gap": 0.0788,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.2467,
"model_prob": 0.3953,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 31.6,
"draw": 28.8,
"home": 39.5
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 3.92
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 3.92,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Chapecoense Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 4.05,
"market_odds": 3.92,
"model_odds": 2.53,
"overround": 3.4,
"prob_edge": 14.0,
"value_pct": 54.9,
"value_rating": "strong_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 6,
"away_failed_to_score": 8,
"away_played": 25,
"away_score_rate": 71.9,
"home_clean_sheet": 2,
"home_failed_to_score": 8,
"home_played": 24,
"home_score_rate": 76.3,
"no_prob": 43.5,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 56.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 56.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.27,
"home_expected": 1.44,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.2
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.6
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.8
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 8.5
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.7
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Chapecoense or Draw",
"prob": 68.3
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Chapecoense or Internacional",
"prob": 71.2
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Internacional",
"prob": 60.5
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Chapecoense or Internacional",
"pick_prob": 71.2
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 31.7,
"draw_pct": 28.8,
"home_pct": 39.5,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Chapecoense"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.71,
"away_avg_scored": 1.0,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.0,
"over_prob": 50.9,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 50.9,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"total_expected": 2.71,
"under_prob": 49.1
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 54.9,
"implied_prob": 25.5,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Chapecoense Win",
"model_prob": 39.5,
"odds": 3.92
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"has_data": false
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -2.7,
"ev": -0.1826,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 6.7,
"market_prob": 0.1493,
"market_prob_pct": 14.9,
"model_prob": 0.122,
"model_prob_pct": 12.2,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.2
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.2
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.6
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.8
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 8.5
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.7
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.44,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from Chapecoense, but the model still strongly favours Chapecoense.",
"consensus_odds": 3.92,
"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": 0.1027,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 10.3,
"text": "+10.3%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.2467,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.1027,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 10.3,
"text": "+10.3%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3953,
"raw_edge_display": "+14.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.9,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.5496,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+55.0%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Chapecoense",
"sort_key": 10242.43,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.3808,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.665,
"edge": 0.0028,
"edge_pp": 0.3,
"market_prob": 0.5578,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.565,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.3462,
"best_odd": 2.1,
"edge": -0.0025,
"ev": -0.0766,
"implied_prob": 0.4422,
"model_prob": 0.435,
"p_final": 0.4397
},
"p_final": 0.5605,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"raw_edge_pp": 0.7,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0593,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0667,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.3808,
"best_odd": 1.665,
"edge": 0.0028,
"ev": -0.0667,
"implied_prob": 0.5578,
"model_prob": 0.565,
"p_final": 0.5605
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0778,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -7.8,
"text": "-7.8%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.0226,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -2.3,
"text": "-2.3%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": -0.0226,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no_prob": 43.5,
"sort_key": 1794.35,
"tier": "bad_ev",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 56.5
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.3662,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.93,
"edge": -0.0009,
"edge_pp": -0.1,
"market_prob": 0.4934,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.491,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.3662,
"best_odd": 1.88,
"edge": 0.0009,
"ev": -0.046,
"implied_prob": 0.5066,
"model_prob": 0.509,
"p_final": 0.5075
},
"p_final": 0.4925,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"raw_edge_pp": -0.2,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0524,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0494,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.3662,
"best_odd": 1.93,
"edge": -0.0009,
"ev": -0.0494,
"implied_prob": 0.4934,
"model_prob": 0.491,
"p_final": 0.4925
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.0278,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -2.8,
"text": "-2.8%"
},
"ev_under": -0.0229,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -2.3,
"text": "-2.3%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": -0.0229,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over_prob": 50.9,
"sort_key": 1794.275,
"tier": "bad_ev",
"under_prob": 49.1,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 816.6,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.2
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "7/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "7/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +21.4%",
"alert_team": "Chapecoense",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 0.0,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": null,
"hero_label": "",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"market_team": "Chapecoense",
"model_prob_pct": 39.5,
"model_team": "Chapecoense",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 64,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 14.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.9,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Chapecoense, but the model still strongly favours Chapecoense."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 14.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.9,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Chapecoense, but the model still strongly favours Chapecoense."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1027,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5496,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 26,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Chapecoense at 39.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 24.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Chapecoense as the value side (39.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 14.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Chapecoense, but the model still strongly favours Chapecoense.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Chapecoense",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Chapecoense \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.92 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +55% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1492373 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.92 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +10.3% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +10.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +10.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +10.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "58 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "26 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+10.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Chapecoense, but the model still strongly favours Chapecoense.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +55% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 58,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Chapecoense, but the model still strongly favours Chapecoense.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.1027,
"consensus_ev_display": "+10.3%",
"consensus_odds": 3.92,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2467,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3953,
"raw_edge_display": "+14.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.25510204081632654,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.5496,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+55.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 6.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.17"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.17
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "7/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.7777777777777778,
"evidence": {
"score": 57,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation pending",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pending",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 25.0,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 7.8,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 8.0
},
"score": 58,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 0.0,
"market_agreement": "unknown",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.27,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 7.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.44,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.44,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.44 \u00b7 Away xG 1.27 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +7%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pending",
"odds_delta_pct": 21.4,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +21.4%",
"steam_team": "Chapecoense",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 26,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 8,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 8,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Chapecoense, but the model still strongly favours Chapecoense.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 14.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.9,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Chapecoense, but the model still strongly favours Chapecoense."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 14.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.9,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Chapecoense, but the model still strongly favours Chapecoense."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1027,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5496,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 26,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Chapecoense at 39.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 24.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Chapecoense as the value side (39.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 14.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Chapecoense, but the model still strongly favours Chapecoense.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Chapecoense",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Chapecoense \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.92 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +55% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1492373 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.92 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +10.3% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +10.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +10.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +10.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "58 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "26 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+10.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Chapecoense, but the model still strongly favours Chapecoense.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +55% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 58,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Chapecoense, but the model still strongly favours Chapecoense.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.1027,
"consensus_ev_display": "+10.3%",
"consensus_odds": 3.92,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2467,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3953,
"raw_edge_display": "+14.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.25510204081632654,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.5496,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+55.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 6.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.17"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.17
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Chapecoense, but the model still strongly favours Chapecoense.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Chapecoense 1.44 xG vs Internacional 1.27 \u2192 Chapecoense 39.5%",
"Market Drift: Chapecoense odds \u2191 +21.4%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Chapecoense, but the market has moved away from Chapecoense.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 39.5,
"label": "Chapecoense",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 28.82,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 31.68,
"label": "Internacional",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.08,
"fair_prob": 50.9,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 50.82,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.08,
"fair_prob": 49.1,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 49.18,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.89,
"fair_prob": 56.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 55.61,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.89,
"fair_prob": 43.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 44.39,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations.",
"comparison_available": false,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "unknown",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "",
"edge_label_key": "",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Chapecoense",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "\u2014",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 24.7,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+14.8 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 14.8,
"model_prob_pct": 39.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+14.8 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 14.8,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 58,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Chapecoense, but the model still strongly favours Chapecoense. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pending",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 26,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 8,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 8,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Chapecoense 1.44 xG vs Internacional 1.27 \u2192 Chapecoense 39.5%",
"Market Drift: Chapecoense odds \u2191 +21.4%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Chapecoense, but the market has moved away from Chapecoense.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": false,
"hero_edge_pp": null,
"hero_label": "",
"hero_side": null,
"market_activity": "Chapecoense odds lengthened \u2191 +21.4%.",
"market_agreement": "unknown",
"market_agreement_label": "\u2014",
"market_interpretation": {},
"market_narrative": {},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pending",
"status": "pending"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pending",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 7.8 pp (at 39.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 7.8,
"max_prob_pct": 39.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "",
"largest_gap_pp": null,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": null,
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob_pct": 39.5,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Chapecoense",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "",
"signal_label": ""
},
{
"difference_pp": null,
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob_pct": 28.82,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "",
"signal_label": ""
},
{
"difference_pp": null,
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.68,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Internacional",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "",
"signal_label": ""
}
],
"status": "unknown",
"status_label": "\u2014",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical model leans Chapecoense (39.5%).",
"However, Chapecoense has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +21.4%, 7/9) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"The market has moved away from Chapecoense, but the model still strongly favours Chapecoense. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": null,
"closing_odds": null,
"closing_reason": "Expected before kickoff",
"closing_status": "waiting",
"closing_status_label": "Waiting",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": null,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "market_monitoring",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Market monitoring",
"entry_implied_pct": 29.41,
"entry_odds": 3.4,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pending",
"model_validation_status": "pending",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "pending"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "pending"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 7,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +21.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 21.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +12.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 12.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +12.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 12.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.8
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "7/9",
"clv_label": "Ready to validate",
"clv_status": "ready",
"current_odds": 3.4,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +21.4%",
"move_pct_abs": 21.4,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 128h 3m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"7/9 books lengthened Chapecoense together (21.4% drift, score 64) \u2014 broad market fade, not a single-book blip.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 21.4,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.92",
"3.36",
"2.80"
],
"display": "3.47 \u2192 2.77 \u2192 3.40",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 128h 3m",
"pick_team": "Chapecoense",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.47"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.77"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.40"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.8,
3.92,
3.4
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,8.4",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.80"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.80"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.92"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.40"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.8,
"page_alert_line": "Market drift alert: Chapecoense odds \u2191 +21.4% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Chapecoense",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Market drift alert: Chapecoense odds \u2191 +21.4% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc9",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.4,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +21.4%",
"open_odds": 2.8,
"summary": "Market moved away from Chapecoense while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Chapecoense",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "strong_drift",
"signal_label": "Strong drift",
"steam_score": 64,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "7/9",
"current_odds": 3.4,
"move_display": "\u2191 +21.4%",
"open_odds": 2.8,
"pick_team": "Chapecoense",
"steam_score": 64,
"steam_team_name": "Chapecoense",
"steam_tier": "A"
},
"premium_teaser": {},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "internacional",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Internacional",
"away_team_id": 119,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/119.webp",
"away_team_name": "Internacional",
"away_team_public_id": "2d3lx3uLKSotuw",
"away_team_slug": "internacional",
"country_code": "BR",
"country_display_name": "Brazil",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/br.svg",
"country_id": 24,
"country_name": "Brazil",
"fixture_id": 1492373,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Brazil",
"home_team_display_name": "Chapecoense",
"home_team_id": 132,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/132.webp",
"home_team_name": "Chapecoense",
"home_team_public_id": "14FIZ3MPxbsu0Q",
"home_team_slug": "chapecoense-sc",
"ht.home_team_slug": "chapecoense-sc",
"league_country": "Brazil",
"league_country_display": "Brazil",
"league_display_name": "Serie A Brazil",
"league_id": 71,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/71.webp",
"league_name": "Serie A Brazil",
"league_public_id": "0wg055kq66Q9K5",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-12 20:00:00",
"public_id": "5s0lSubmdPU4na",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.3405,
"best_odd": 2.02,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0552,
"ev": -0.1447,
"implied_prob": 0.4787,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4787,
"draw": 0.2747,
"home": 0.2467
},
"model_prob": 0.3165,
"p_final": 0.4234
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2939,
"best_odd": 3.52,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.004,
"ev": -0.0191,
"implied_prob": 0.2747,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4787,
"draw": 0.2747,
"home": 0.2467
},
"model_prob": 0.2882,
"p_final": 0.2787
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2331,
"best_odd": 3.92,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0347,
"ev": 0.1027,
"implied_prob": 0.2467,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4787,
"draw": 0.2747,
"home": 0.2467
},
"model_prob": 0.3953,
"p_final": 0.2813
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.02,
"edge": -0.1786,
"ev": -0.3607,
"implied_prob": 0.495,
"model_prob": 0.3165
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.52,
"edge": 0.0041,
"ev": 0.0145,
"implied_prob": 0.2841,
"model_prob": 0.2882
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 3.92,
"edge": 0.1402,
"ev": 0.5496,
"implied_prob": 0.2551,
"model_prob": 0.3953
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.3462,
"alpha_yes": 0.3808,
"best_no_odd": 2.12,
"best_yes_odd": 1.73,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0089,
"edge_yes": 0.0089,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0778,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0766,
"ev_yes": -0.0226,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0667,
"implied_no": 0.4439,
"implied_yes": 0.5561,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.3462,
"best_odd": 2.1,
"edge": -0.0025,
"ev": -0.0766,
"implied_prob": 0.4422,
"model_prob": 0.435,
"p_final": 0.4397
},
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.3808,
"best_odd": 1.665,
"edge": 0.0028,
"ev": -0.0667,
"implied_prob": 0.5578,
"model_prob": 0.565,
"p_final": 0.5605
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.4397,
"p_final_yes": 0.5605,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.3662,
"alpha_under": 0.3662,
"best_over_odd": 1.91,
"best_under_odd": 1.99,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.88,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.93,
"edge_over": 0.0008,
"edge_under": -0.0008,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.0278,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.046,
"ev_under": -0.0229,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0494,
"implied_over": 0.5082,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5066,
"implied_under": 0.4918,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4934,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.3662,
"best_odd": 1.88,
"edge": 0.0009,
"ev": -0.046,
"implied_prob": 0.5066,
"model_prob": 0.509,
"p_final": 0.5075
},
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.3662,
"best_odd": 1.93,
"edge": -0.0009,
"ev": -0.0494,
"implied_prob": 0.4934,
"model_prob": 0.491,
"p_final": 0.4925
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5075,
"p_final_under": 0.4925,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.71,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1027,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5496,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1027,
"confidence": 6.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.7,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.7
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "B",
"stake_factor": 0.5
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 14.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.9,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Chapecoense, but the model still strongly favours Chapecoense."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1027,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5496,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 26,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Chapecoense at 39.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 24.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Chapecoense as the value side (39.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 14.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Chapecoense, but the model still strongly favours Chapecoense.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Chapecoense",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Chapecoense \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.92 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +55% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1492373 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.92 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +10.3% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +10.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +10.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +10.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "58 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "26 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+10.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Chapecoense, but the model still strongly favours Chapecoense.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +55% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 58,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Chapecoense, but the model still strongly favours Chapecoense.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.1027,
"consensus_ev_display": "+10.3%",
"consensus_odds": 3.92,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2467,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3953,
"raw_edge_display": "+14.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.25510204081632654,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.5496,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+55.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 6.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.17"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.17
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
"scoring_type": "neutral",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.565,
"draw_prob": 0.2882,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3953,
"over_prob": 0.509,
"total_xg": 2.71,
"under_prob": 0.491,
"xg_diff": 0.17
},
"type": "neutral",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 3.92,
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0347,
"ev": 0.1027,
"implied_prob": 0.2467,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.3953,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Chapecoense"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.3808,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.665,
"edge": 0.0028,
"market_prob": 0.5578,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.565,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.3462,
"best_odd": 2.1,
"edge": -0.0025,
"ev": -0.0766,
"implied_prob": 0.4422,
"model_prob": 0.435,
"p_final": 0.4397
},
"p_final": 0.5605,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0667,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.3808,
"best_odd": 1.665,
"edge": 0.0028,
"ev": -0.0667,
"implied_prob": 0.5578,
"model_prob": 0.565,
"p_final": 0.5605
}
},
"edge": 0.0089,
"ev": -0.0226,
"implied_prob": 0.5561,
"model_prob": 0.565,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.3662,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.93,
"edge": -0.0009,
"market_prob": 0.4934,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.491,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.3662,
"best_odd": 1.88,
"edge": 0.0009,
"ev": -0.046,
"implied_prob": 0.5066,
"model_prob": 0.509,
"p_final": 0.5075
},
"p_final": 0.4925,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0494,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.3662,
"best_odd": 1.93,
"edge": -0.0009,
"ev": -0.0494,
"implied_prob": 0.4934,
"model_prob": 0.491,
"p_final": 0.4925
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": -0.0008,
"ev": -0.0229,
"implied_prob": 0.4918,
"model_prob": 0.491,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1492373,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1027,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3165,
"draw": 0.2882,
"home": 0.3953
},
"reason_codes": [
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Internacional",
"home": "Chapecoense"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.040597,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1027,
"implied_prob": 0.2467,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.3953,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "weak",
"risk_band": "speculative",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Chapecoense",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": true
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.1027,
"consensus_ev_display": "+10.3%",
"consensus_odds": 3.92,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2467,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3953,
"raw_edge_display": "+14.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.25510204081632654,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.5496,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+55.0%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1492373,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-12T20:02:40.288085+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Langgan Sekarang
Serie A Brazil — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 28 | 18 | 6 | 4 | 60 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 28 | 16 | 9 | 3 | 57 |
| 3 | Athletico Paranaense | 28 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 49 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 28 | 13 | 9 | 6 | 48 |
| 5 | Bahia | 28 | 12 | 10 | 6 | 46 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 28 | 13 | 6 | 9 | 45 |
| 7 | Atlético-MG | 27 | 11 | 7 | 9 | 40 |
| 8 | Santos | 27 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 38 |
| 9 | Coritiba | 28 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 38 |
| 10 | RB Bragantino | 27 | 10 | 6 | 11 | 36 |
| 11 | São Paulo | 27 | 10 | 6 | 11 | 36 |
| 12 | Botafogo | 28 | 9 | 8 | 11 | 35 |
| 13 | Vitória | 28 | 9 | 6 | 13 | 33 |
| 14 | Corinthians | 28 | 8 | 8 | 12 | 32 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 28 | 8 | 8 | 12 | 32 |
| 16 | Vasco da Gama | 27 | 8 | 7 | 12 | 31 |
| 17 | Gremio | 28 | 7 | 8 | 13 | 29 |
| 18 | Internacional | 28 | 6 | 10 | 12 | 28 |
| 19 | Remo | 28 | 5 | 8 | 15 | 23 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 27 | 3 | 9 | 15 | 18 |
| 20 | Chapecoense B | 20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 10 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 28 | 55 | 23 | +32 | 60 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 28 | 47 | 21 | +26 | 57 |
| 3 | Fluminense | 28 | 44 | 36 | +8 | 48 |
| 4 | Athletico Paranaense | 28 | 43 | 32 | +11 | 49 |
| 5 | Bahia | 28 | 43 | 35 | +8 | 46 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 28 | 42 | 40 | +2 | 45 |
| 7 | Santos | 27 | 41 | 40 | +1 | 38 |
| 8 | Botafogo | 28 | 41 | 45 | -4 | 35 |
| 9 | Coritiba | 28 | 37 | 43 | -6 | 38 |
| 10 | Atlético-MG | 27 | 36 | 32 | +4 | 40 |
| 11 | Vasco da Gama | 27 | 34 | 41 | -7 | 31 |
| 12 | RB Bragantino | 27 | 33 | 31 | +2 | 36 |
| 13 | Mirassol | 28 | 33 | 42 | -9 | 32 |
| 14 | São Paulo | 27 | 32 | 30 | +2 | 36 |
| 15 | Remo | 28 | 32 | 47 | -15 | 23 |
| 16 | Internacional | 28 | 30 | 36 | -6 | 28 |
| 17 | Gremio | 28 | 30 | 38 | -8 | 29 |
| 18 | Corinthians | 28 | 29 | 32 | -3 | 32 |
| 19 | Chapecoense | 27 | 29 | 53 | -24 | 18 |
| 20 | Vitória | 28 | 28 | 42 | -14 | 33 |
| 21 | Chapecoense B | 20 | 19 | 41 | -22 | 10 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | xG | xGC | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bahia | 28 | 12.2 | 6.9 | +5.3 | 46 |
| 2 | Santos | 27 | 9.9 | 6.6 | +3.3 | 38 |
| 3 | Flamengo | 28 | 9.0 | 5.7 | +3.3 | 60 |
| 4 | Vasco da Gama | 27 | 9.2 | 6.1 | +3.1 | 31 |
| 5 | Atlético-MG | 27 | 5.9 | 2.9 | +3.0 | 40 |
| 6 | Corinthians | 28 | 7.2 | 4.7 | +2.5 | 32 |
| 7 | Athletico Paranaense | 28 | 10.2 | 8.1 | +2.1 | 49 |
| 8 | Fluminense | 28 | 8.7 | 6.8 | +1.9 | 48 |
| 9 | Palmeiras | 28 | 8.2 | 6.5 | +1.7 | 57 |
| 10 | Botafogo | 28 | 11.0 | 10.9 | +0.1 | 35 |
| 11 | São Paulo | 27 | 4.9 | 4.8 | +0.1 | 36 |
| 12 | RB Bragantino | 27 | 4.9 | 5.7 | -0.8 | 36 |
| 13 | Cruzeiro | 28 | 9.3 | 10.2 | -0.9 | 45 |
| 14 | Mirassol | 28 | 7.1 | 9.0 | -1.9 | 32 |
| 15 | Remo | 28 | 5.6 | 7.7 | -2.1 | 23 |
| 16 | Coritiba | 28 | 4.9 | 7.1 | -2.2 | 38 |
| 17 | Chapecoense | 27 | 7.3 | 9.9 | -2.6 | 18 |
| 18 | Internacional | 28 | 8.8 | 11.5 | -2.7 | 28 |
| 19 | Vitória | 28 | 6.6 | 11.7 | -5.1 | 33 |
| 20 | Gremio | 28 | 5.3 | 13.5 | -8.2 | 29 |
| 21 | Chapecoense B | 20 | — | — | — | 10 |
