Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 matlamat) ✔ Betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Botafogo Botafogo ✔ Betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 2-1, 1-1, 2-0, 3-1, 1-0 2-1 ✔ Betul
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.2
AI Fair Odds
1.67
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Botafogo win · Botafogo 2–1 Santos
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Probability Calibration
- Expected: 59.9%
- Historical Bucket: 55–60% — Building sample
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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"decision_algo_version": "2.3.1",
"facts": {
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"away_win_prob": 0.1866,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.347,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.653,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2149,
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"fair_odds_away": 5.36,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 4.65,
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"fair_odds_home": 1.67,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 2.3,
"home_win_prob": 0.5985,
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"over_25_prob": 0.688,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under_25_prob": 0.312
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : Botafogo or draw",
"main_pick_display": "Winner : Botafogo",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Botafogo"
},
"away_xg": 1.25,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Botafogo",
"confidence": 59.9,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "high",
"display_text": "Winner : Botafogo",
"edge": 0.1591,
"edge_gap": 0.3836,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4395,
"model_prob": 0.5985,
"pick_type": "winner",
"probabilities": {
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"draw": 21.5,
"home": 59.9
},
"reason": "",
"selection": "home",
"selection_name": "Botafogo"
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"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.2
}
],
"risk_color": "#f44336",
"risk_key": "high_risk",
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.2,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Botafogo Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.28,
"market_odds": 2.2,
"model_odds": 1.67,
"overround": 3.4,
"prob_edge": 14.4,
"value_pct": 31.7,
"value_rating": "strong_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 4,
"away_failed_to_score": 2,
"away_played": 18,
"away_score_rate": 71.3,
"home_clean_sheet": 1,
"home_failed_to_score": 2,
"home_played": 17,
"home_score_rate": 90.0,
"no_prob": 34.7,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 65.3,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 65.3
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.25,
"home_expected": 2.3,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.5
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{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 7.6
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 3,
"label": "3-1",
"prob": 7.3
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 6.6
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Botafogo or Draw",
"prob": 81.4
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Botafogo or Santos",
"prob": 78.6
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Santos",
"prob": 40.2
}
],
"pick_key": "1X",
"pick_label": "Botafogo or Draw",
"pick_prob": 81.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 18.7,
"draw_pct": 21.5,
"home_pct": 59.9,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Botafogo"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 3.55,
"away_avg_scored": 1.4,
"confidence": "high",
"home_avg_scored": 1.8,
"over_prob": 68.8,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 68.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"total_expected": 3.55,
"under_prob": 31.2
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 31.8,
"implied_prob": 45.5,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Botafogo Win",
"model_prob": 59.9,
"odds": 2.2
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Santos",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 28.27,
"draw": 27.78,
"home": 43.95
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-07-16 22:29:01",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-07-16 21:59:02",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Botafogo",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 43.95,
"gap_pp": 15.91,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 59.85
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 27.78,
"gap_pp": -6.29,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 21.5
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 28.27,
"gap_pp": -9.62,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 18.65
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 50.0,
"gap_pp": 18.8,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 68.8
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 50.0,
"gap_pp": -18.8,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 31.2
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.2,
"early": 2.2,
"implied_closing_pct": 43.95,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 43.95,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.48,
"early": 3.48,
"implied_closing_pct": 27.78,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 27.78,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 3.42,
"early": 3.42,
"implied_closing_pct": 28.27,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 28.27,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.94,
"early": 1.94,
"implied_closing_pct": 50.0,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 50.0,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.94,
"early": 1.94,
"implied_closing_pct": 50.0,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 50.0,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 18.8,
"kind": "ou_o"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"most_likely": {
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.5
}
},
"home_xg": 2.3,
"homepage_pick": {
"best_bookmaker": "Betano",
"best_odds": 2.15,
"confidence": "moderate",
"display_label": "Home Botafogo",
"edge": 13.3,
"ev": 28.7,
"probability": 59.9
},
"market_cards": [
{
"consensus_odds": 2.2,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0867,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 8.7,
"text": "+8.7%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4395,
"max_ev": 0.0867,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 8.7,
"text": "+8.7%"
},
"model_prob": 0.5985,
"side_label": "Botafogo",
"sort_key": 10228.03,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"ev_available": false,
"ev_over": null,
"ev_over_display": null,
"ev_under": null,
"ev_under_display": null,
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": null,
"over_prob": 68.8,
"sort_key": 4050.0,
"tier": "lean",
"under_prob": 31.2,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"ev_available": false,
"ev_no": null,
"ev_no_display": null,
"ev_yes": null,
"ev_yes_display": null,
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": null,
"no_prob": 34.7,
"sort_key": 4050.0,
"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 65.3
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 808.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "2-1",
"top_prob": 9.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "13/14",
"alert_breadth_note": "13/14 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -14.5%",
"alert_team": "Santos",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 15.9,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 15.9,
"hero_label": "Botafogo",
"market_prob_pct": 44.0,
"market_team": "Botafogo",
"model_prob_pct": 59.9,
"model_team": "Botafogo",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 76,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Santos, but the model still strongly favours Botafogo."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Santos, but the model still strongly favours Botafogo."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0867,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3168,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.9,
"execution_confidence": 45,
"gates_failed": [
"Decision strength below 7"
],
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Santos, but the model still strongly favours Botafogo.",
"model_lean": "Botafogo",
"outlier_detected": true,
"primary_allowed": false,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Santos, but the model still strongly favours Botafogo.",
"Decision strength: 4.9/10",
"Decision strength below 7",
"Outlier price +32% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 57,
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Santos, but the model still strongly favours Botafogo.",
"tier": "observe",
"version": "v1"
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"evidence": {
"score": 82,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Strong model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (16 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 17.1,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 9.3,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 57,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"mv_status": "warning",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Execution Confidence",
"score": 45,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Model Value",
"score": 28,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward Santos, but the model still strongly favours Botafogo.",
"alignment": {
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Santos, but the model still strongly favours Botafogo."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Santos, but the model still strongly favours Botafogo."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0867,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3168,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.9,
"execution_confidence": 45,
"gates_failed": [
"Decision strength below 7"
],
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Santos, but the model still strongly favours Botafogo.",
"model_lean": "Botafogo",
"outlier_detected": true,
"primary_allowed": false,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Santos, but the model still strongly favours Botafogo.",
"Decision strength: 4.9/10",
"Decision strength below 7",
"Outlier price +32% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 57,
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Santos, but the model still strongly favours Botafogo.",
"tier": "observe",
"version": "v1"
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward Santos, but the model still strongly favours Botafogo.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Botafogo 2.30 xG vs Santos 1.25 \u2192 Botafogo 59.9%",
"Market: Botafogo ~44.0% implied",
"Market Steam: Santos \u2193 -14.5%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Botafogo, but sharp money moved toward Santos.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 15.9,
"fair_prob": 59.85,
"label": "Botafogo",
"market_prob": 43.95,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.29,
"fair_prob": 21.49,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 27.78,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.61,
"fair_prob": 18.66,
"label": "Santos",
"market_prob": 28.27,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 68.8,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 31.2,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 65.3,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 34.7,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 15.9,
"fair_prob_pct": 59.85,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Botafogo",
"market_prob_pct": 43.95,
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"steam_team_name": "Santos"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Botafogo\u0027s win probability at 59.9%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 44.0%, a difference of 15.9 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
"max_gap_pp": 15.9,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
"favourite_label": "Botafogo",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "high",
"headline": "Slight edge match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_prob_pct": 44.0,
"model_prob_pct": 59.9,
"outcome_separation_tier": "high",
"paragraphs": [],
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 57,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved toward Santos, but the model still strongly favours Botafogo. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "slight_edge",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Execution Confidence",
"score": 45,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Model Value",
"score": 28,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "candidate",
"label": "Candidate +EV"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Botafogo 2.30 xG vs Santos 1.25 \u2192 Botafogo 59.9%",
"Market: Botafogo ~44.0% implied",
"Market Steam: Santos \u2193 -14.5%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Botafogo, but sharp money moved toward Santos.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "One outcome clearly leads the model 1X2 grid.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "High",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 15.9,
"hero_label": "Botafogo",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Santos odds shortened \u2193 -14.5%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.",
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Santos, with odds shortening by 14.5%.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Botafogo.",
"note": "Buying interest on Santos \u2014 odds shortened by 14.5%.",
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Botafogo.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Santos, with odds shortening by 14.5%.",
"Buying interest on Santos \u2014 odds shortened by 14.5%."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate favors Botafogo more strongly than current market pricing.",
"At the same time, Santos has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 14.5%.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (13/14) supports the current market view on Santos."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 15.9,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 38.4 pp (at 59.9%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 38.4,
"max_prob_pct": 59.9,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "High",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Botafogo",
"largest_gap_pp": 15.9,
"lead": "The model rates Botafogo considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 15.9,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 15.9,
"edge_pp": 15.9,
"fair_prob_pct": 59.85,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Botafogo",
"market_prob_pct": 43.95,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
},
{
"difference_pp": -6.29,
"edge_pp": -6.29,
"fair_prob_pct": 21.49,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 27.78,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -9.61,
"edge_pp": -9.61,
"fair_prob_pct": 18.66,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Santos",
"market_prob_pct": 28.27,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
"steam_note": "Buying interest on Santos \u2014 odds shortened by 14.5%.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Botafogo (44.0%).",
"However, Santos has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -14.5%, 13/14).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Botafogo, Market \u2192 Botafogo, Recent sharp money \u2192 Santos.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 45.45,
"closing_odds": 2.2,
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 45.45,
"entry_odds": 2.2,
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 13,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 1,
"bookmaker_name": "10Bet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -15.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": -15.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -14.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": -14.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -13.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": -13.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 21,
"bookmaker_name": "888Sport",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -12.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": -12.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -12.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": -12.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 9,
"bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -11.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": -11.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -9.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -9.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -9.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": -9.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -9.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -9.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -9.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -9.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -8.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": -8.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 34,
"bookmaker_name": "Superbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -6.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": -6.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 16,
"bookmaker_name": "Unibet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -5.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": -5.4
}
],
"books_total": 14,
"breadth_display": "13/14",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.25,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -14.5%",
"move_pct_abs": 14.5,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 159h 23m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book steam on Santos (14.5%, 13/14) \u2014 aligned shortening, not a single-book blip.",
"Sharp sportsbooks led a meaningful repricing with broad market follow-through."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -14.5,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.80",
"3.52",
"3.25"
],
"display": "3.90 \u2192 3.23 \u2192 3.25",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 159h 23m",
"pick_team": "Santos",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.90"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.23"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.25"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.8,
3.42,
3.25
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,12.4 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.80"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.25"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.80"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.25"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.8,
"page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: Santos \u2193 -14.5% market move detected",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Santos",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: Santos \u2193 -14.5% market move detected",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc8",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.25,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -14.5%",
"open_odds": 3.8,
"summary": "Market moved toward Santos while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Santos",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "market_steam",
"signal_label": "Steam",
"steam_score": 76,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "13/14",
"current_odds": 3.25,
"move_display": "\u2193 -14.5%",
"open_odds": 3.8,
"pick_team": "Santos",
"steam_score": 76,
"steam_team_name": "Santos",
"steam_tier": "A+"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 15.9,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Santos",
"away_team_id": 128,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/128.webp",
"away_team_name": "Santos",
"away_team_slug": "santos",
"country_code": "BR",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/br.svg",
"country_name": "Brazil",
"fixture_id": 1492291,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Brazil",
"home_team_display_name": "Botafogo",
"home_team_id": 120,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/120.webp",
"home_team_name": "Botafogo",
"home_team_slug": "botafogo",
"league_country": "Brazil",
"league_display_name": "Campeonato Brasileiro S\u00e9rie A",
"league_id": 71,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/71.webp",
"league_name": "Campeonato Brasileiro S\u00e9rie A",
"league_name_canonical": "Serie A Brazil",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-07-16 22:30:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Rio de Janeiro",
"venue_name": "Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 8.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2567,
"best_odd": 3.42,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0247,
"ev": -0.1176,
"implied_prob": 0.2827,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2827,
"draw": 0.2778,
"home": 0.4395
},
"model_prob": 0.1865,
"p_final": 0.258
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2717,
"best_odd": 3.48,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0171,
"ev": -0.0926,
"implied_prob": 0.2778,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2827,
"draw": 0.2778,
"home": 0.4395
},
"model_prob": 0.215,
"p_final": 0.2607
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3426,
"best_odd": 2.2,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0545,
"ev": 0.0867,
"implied_prob": 0.4395,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2827,
"draw": 0.2778,
"home": 0.4395
},
"model_prob": 0.5985,
"p_final": 0.494
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.42,
"edge": -0.1059,
"ev": -0.3622,
"implied_prob": 0.2924,
"model_prob": 0.1865
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.48,
"edge": -0.0724,
"ev": -0.2519,
"implied_prob": 0.2874,
"model_prob": 0.215
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.2,
"edge": 0.144,
"ev": 0.3168,
"implied_prob": 0.4545,
"model_prob": 0.5985
}
},
"btts": {
"ev_available": false,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"ev_available": false,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"reliability": "low"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.55,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.3.1"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0867,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3168,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0867,
"confidence": 6.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 4.9,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 4.9
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Santos, but the model still strongly favours Botafogo."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0867,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3168,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.9,
"execution_confidence": 45,
"gates_failed": [
"Decision strength below 7"
],
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Santos, but the model still strongly favours Botafogo.",
"model_lean": "Botafogo",
"outlier_detected": true,
"primary_allowed": false,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Santos, but the model still strongly favours Botafogo.",
"Decision strength: 4.9/10",
"Decision strength below 7",
"Outlier price +32% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 57,
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Santos, but the model still strongly favours Botafogo.",
"tier": "observe",
"version": "v1"
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5f3a\u4fe1\u53f7\uff08\u4f4e\u65b9\u5dee\uff09",
"scoring_type": "strong_signal",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.653,
"draw_prob": 0.215,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.5985,
"over_prob": 0.688,
"total_xg": 3.55,
"under_prob": 0.312,
"xg_diff": 1.05
},
"type": "strong_signal",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.2,
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0545,
"ev": 0.0867,
"implied_prob": 0.4395,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.5985,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Botafogo"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.653,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "lean",
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.688,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1492291,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0867,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.1865,
"draw": 0.215,
"home": 0.5985
},
"reason_codes": [
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Santos",
"home": "Botafogo"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.062268,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0867,
"implied_prob": 0.4395,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.5985,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Botafogo",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1
}
},
"fixture_id": 1492291,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-07-16T22:29:06.362102+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Langgan Sekarang
Serie A Brazil — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras | 27 | 16 | 8 | 3 | 56 |
| 2 | Flamengo | 26 | 16 | 6 | 4 | 54 |
| 3 | Athletico Paranaense | 27 | 13 | 7 | 7 | 46 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 27 | 12 | 9 | 6 | 45 |
| 5 | Bahia | 26 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 43 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 27 | 12 | 6 | 9 | 42 |
| 7 | Atlético-MG | 26 | 11 | 6 | 9 | 39 |
| 8 | Coritiba | 27 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 38 |
| 9 | RB Bragantino | 26 | 10 | 6 | 10 | 36 |
| 10 | Santos | 26 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 35 |
| 11 | São Paulo | 26 | 9 | 6 | 11 | 33 |
| 12 | Vitória | 27 | 9 | 6 | 12 | 33 |
| 13 | Corinthians | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 32 |
| 14 | Botafogo | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 32 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 27 | 7 | 8 | 12 | 29 |
| 16 | Gremio | 26 | 7 | 7 | 12 | 28 |
| 17 | Vasco da Gama | 26 | 7 | 7 | 12 | 28 |
| 18 | Internacional | 27 | 6 | 10 | 11 | 28 |
| 19 | Remo | 26 | 5 | 8 | 13 | 23 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 26 | 3 | 8 | 15 | 17 |
| 20 | Chapecoense B | 20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 10 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 26 | 51 | 21 | +30 | 54 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 27 | 47 | 21 | +26 | 56 |
| 3 | Athletico Paranaense | 27 | 41 | 31 | +10 | 46 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 27 | 41 | 35 | +6 | 45 |
| 5 | Bahia | 26 | 40 | 32 | +8 | 43 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 27 | 39 | 39 | 0 | 42 |
| 7 | Santos | 26 | 39 | 39 | 0 | 35 |
| 8 | Botafogo | 26 | 38 | 41 | -3 | 32 |
| 9 | Coritiba | 27 | 37 | 38 | -1 | 38 |
| 10 | Atlético-MG | 26 | 35 | 31 | +4 | 39 |
| 11 | RB Bragantino | 26 | 32 | 29 | +3 | 36 |
| 12 | São Paulo | 26 | 31 | 30 | +1 | 33 |
| 13 | Mirassol | 27 | 31 | 42 | -11 | 29 |
| 14 | Internacional | 27 | 30 | 35 | -5 | 28 |
| 15 | Remo | 26 | 30 | 43 | -13 | 23 |
| 16 | Vasco da Gama | 26 | 29 | 41 | -12 | 28 |
| 17 | Gremio | 26 | 28 | 35 | -7 | 28 |
| 18 | Chapecoense | 26 | 28 | 52 | -24 | 17 |
| 19 | Corinthians | 26 | 27 | 27 | 0 | 32 |
| 20 | Vitória | 27 | 27 | 39 | -12 | 33 |
| 21 | Chapecoense B | 20 | 19 | 41 | -22 | 10 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | xG | xGC | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bahia | 26 | 12.2 | 6.9 | +5.3 | 43 |
| 2 | Santos | 26 | 9.9 | 6.6 | +3.3 | 35 |
| 3 | Flamengo | 26 | 9.0 | 5.7 | +3.3 | 54 |
| 4 | Vasco da Gama | 26 | 9.2 | 6.1 | +3.1 | 28 |
| 5 | Atlético-MG | 26 | 5.9 | 2.9 | +3.0 | 39 |
| 6 | Corinthians | 26 | 7.2 | 4.7 | +2.5 | 32 |
| 7 | Athletico Paranaense | 27 | 10.2 | 8.1 | +2.1 | 46 |
| 8 | Fluminense | 27 | 8.7 | 6.8 | +1.9 | 45 |
| 9 | Palmeiras | 27 | 8.2 | 6.5 | +1.7 | 56 |
| 10 | São Paulo | 26 | 4.9 | 4.8 | +0.1 | 33 |
| 11 | Botafogo | 26 | 10.1 | 10.3 | -0.2 | 32 |
| 12 | RB Bragantino | 26 | 4.9 | 5.7 | -0.8 | 36 |
| 13 | Cruzeiro | 27 | 9.3 | 10.2 | -0.9 | 42 |
| 14 | Mirassol | 27 | 7.1 | 9.0 | -1.9 | 29 |
| 15 | Remo | 26 | 5.6 | 7.7 | -2.1 | 23 |
| 16 | Coritiba | 27 | 4.9 | 7.1 | -2.2 | 38 |
| 17 | Chapecoense | 26 | 7.3 | 9.9 | -2.6 | 17 |
| 18 | Internacional | 27 | 8.8 | 11.5 | -2.7 | 28 |
| 19 | Vitória | 27 | 6.6 | 11.7 | -5.1 | 33 |
| 20 | Gremio | 26 | 4.7 | 12.6 | -7.9 | 28 |
| 21 | Chapecoense B | 20 | — | — | — | 10 |
