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Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Ya ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire ✔ Betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 2-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-0 2-1 ✔ Betul
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.8
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Chicago Fire win · Chicago Fire 2–1 New York City FC
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "337561dd570902ffc92e325623107c528eefcf4d2a268f6c5aa052ad200d69ae",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.31,
"away_win_prob": 0.29,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.396,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.605,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2702,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 3.45,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.7,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.27,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.65,
"home_win_prob": 0.4398,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.568,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under_25_prob": 0.432
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or New York City FC",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "New York City FC"
},
"away_xg": 1.31,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Chicago Fire",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.0891,
"edge_gap": 0.1506,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.5294,
"model_prob": 0.4402,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 29.0,
"draw": 27.0,
"home": 44.0
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "bet365 us",
"odd": 1.8
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 1.8,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "bet365 us",
"display_market": "Chicago Fire Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 1.89,
"market_odds": 1.8,
"model_odds": 2.27,
"overround": 4.9,
"prob_edge": -11.5,
"value_pct": -20.7,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 5,
"away_failed_to_score": 5,
"away_played": 27,
"away_score_rate": 73.0,
"home_clean_sheet": 7,
"home_failed_to_score": 2,
"home_played": 26,
"home_score_rate": 80.8,
"no_prob": 39.6,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 60.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 60.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.31,
"home_expected": 1.65,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 11.2
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.2
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 8.6
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.3
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 7.1
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Chicago Fire or Draw",
"prob": 71.0
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Chicago Fire or New York City FC",
"prob": 73.0
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or New York City FC",
"prob": 56.0
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Chicago Fire or New York City FC",
"pick_prob": 73.0
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 29.0,
"draw_pct": 27.0,
"home_pct": 44.0,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Chicago Fire"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.96,
"away_avg_scored": 1.5,
"confidence": "medium",
"home_avg_scored": 1.8,
"over_prob": 56.8,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 56.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.96,
"under_prob": 43.2
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "bet365 us",
"edge": 18.9,
"implied_prob": 24.4,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "New York City FC Win",
"model_prob": 29.0,
"odds": 4.1
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "New York City FC",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 23.24,
"draw": 23.82,
"home": 52.94
},
"closing_bookmaker": "bet365 us",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-10-10 18:29:42",
"closing_source": "official",
"early_bookmaker": "bet365 us",
"early_capture": "PRE20",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-10-10 18:10:13",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Chicago Fire",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 52.94,
"gap_pp": -8.91,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 44.02
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 23.82,
"gap_pp": 3.19,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 27.01
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 23.24,
"gap_pp": 5.73,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 28.97
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 1.8,
"early": 1.8,
"implied_closing_pct": 52.94,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 52.94,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 4.0,
"early": 4.0,
"implied_closing_pct": 23.82,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 23.82,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 4.1,
"early": 4.1,
"implied_closing_pct": 23.24,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 23.24,
"kind": "1x2_a"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 5.7,
"kind": "1x2_a"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -1.3,
"ev": -0.104,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 8.0,
"market_prob": 0.125,
"market_prob_pct": 12.5,
"model_prob": 0.112,
"model_prob_pct": 11.2,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 11.2
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 11.2
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.2
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 8.6
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.3
},
{
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 7.1
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.65,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.3963,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.35,
"edge": 0.0149,
"edge_pp": 1.5,
"market_prob": 0.3943,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.432,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.5449,
"best_odd": 1.53,
"edge": -0.0205,
"ev": -0.1047,
"implied_prob": 0.6057,
"model_prob": 0.568,
"p_final": 0.5851
},
"p_final": 0.4093,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.8,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0152,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0382,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.3963,
"best_odd": 2.35,
"edge": 0.0149,
"ev": -0.0382,
"implied_prob": 0.3943,
"model_prob": 0.432,
"p_final": 0.4093
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1026,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -10.3,
"text": "-10.3%"
},
"ev_under": 0.0714,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 7.1,
"text": "+7.1%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0714,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over_prob": 56.8,
"sort_key": 10214.26,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 43.2,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from Chicago Fire, but the model still strongly favours Chicago Fire.",
"consensus_odds": 1.8,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1305,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -13.1,
"text": "-13.1%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.5294,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0042,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -0.4,
"text": "-0.4%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4402,
"raw_edge_display": "-8.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -8.9,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2076,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-20.8%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Chicago Fire",
"sort_key": 2199.664,
"tier": "pass"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.4098,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.45,
"edge": 0.0067,
"edge_pp": 0.7,
"market_prob": 0.3797,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.396,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.4098,
"best_odd": 2.45,
"edge": 0.0067,
"ev": -0.0533,
"implied_prob": 0.3797,
"model_prob": 0.396,
"p_final": 0.3864
},
"p_final": 0.3864,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.6,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0298,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0533,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.5643,
"best_odd": 1.5,
"edge": -0.0086,
"ev": -0.0825,
"implied_prob": 0.6203,
"model_prob": 0.605,
"p_final": 0.6116
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.01,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -1.0,
"text": "-1.0%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.0744,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -7.4,
"text": "-7.4%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": -0.01,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no_prob": 39.6,
"sort_key": 1797.5,
"tier": "bad_ev",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 60.5
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 813.6,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 11.2
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "8/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "8/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +11.4%",
"alert_team": "Chicago Fire",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 9.0,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -8.96,
"hero_label": "Chicago Fire",
"market_prob_pct": 52.9,
"market_team": "Chicago Fire",
"model_prob_pct": 44.0,
"model_team": "Chicago Fire",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 40,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.0,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Chicago Fire, but the model still strongly favours Chicago Fire."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.0,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Chicago Fire, but the model still strongly favours Chicago Fire."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0714,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1876,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 34,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Chicago Fire at 44.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 52.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Chicago Fire as the value side (44.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Chicago Fire, but the model still strongly favours Chicago Fire.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Chicago Fire",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Chicago Fire \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.75 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +19% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1490511 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.75 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +7.1% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +7.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +7.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +7.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "76 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+7.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Chicago Fire, but the model still strongly favours Chicago Fire.",
"Decision strength: 3.7/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +19% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 76,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Chicago Fire, but the model still strongly favours Chicago Fire.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1305,
"consensus_ev_display": "-13.1%",
"consensus_odds": 1.8,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5294,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4402,
"raw_edge_display": "-8.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -8.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5555555555555556,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2076,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-20.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 22.2,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.34
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "8/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.8888888888888888,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 20.5,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.9,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 76,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 8.96,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 8.96,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.31,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 22.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.65,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.65,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.65 \u00b7 Away xG 1.31 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +22%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.4,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +11.4%",
"steam_team": "Chicago Fire",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 43,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Chicago Fire, but the model still strongly favours Chicago Fire.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.0,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Chicago Fire, but the model still strongly favours Chicago Fire."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.0,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Chicago Fire, but the model still strongly favours Chicago Fire."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0714,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1876,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 34,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Chicago Fire at 44.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 52.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Chicago Fire as the value side (44.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Chicago Fire, but the model still strongly favours Chicago Fire.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Chicago Fire",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Chicago Fire \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.75 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +19% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1490511 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.75 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +7.1% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +7.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +7.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +7.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "76 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+7.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Chicago Fire, but the model still strongly favours Chicago Fire.",
"Decision strength: 3.7/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +19% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 76,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Chicago Fire, but the model still strongly favours Chicago Fire.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1305,
"consensus_ev_display": "-13.1%",
"consensus_odds": 1.8,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5294,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4402,
"raw_edge_display": "-8.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -8.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5555555555555556,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2076,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-20.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 22.2,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.34
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Chicago Fire, but the model still strongly favours Chicago Fire.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Chicago Fire 1.65 xG vs New York City FC 1.31 \u2192 Chicago Fire 44.0%",
"Market: Chicago Fire ~52.9% implied",
"Market Drift: Chicago Fire odds \u2191 +11.4%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Chicago Fire, but the market has moved away from Chicago Fire.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -8.96,
"fair_prob": 43.98,
"label": "Chicago Fire",
"market_prob": 52.94,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.2,
"fair_prob": 27.02,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 23.82,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.76,
"fair_prob": 29.0,
"label": "New York City FC",
"market_prob": 23.24,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.0,
"fair_prob": 56.8,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 60.8,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.0,
"fair_prob": 43.2,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 39.2,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.42,
"fair_prob": 60.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 61.92,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.52,
"fair_prob": 39.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 38.08,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -8.96,
"fair_prob_pct": 43.98,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Chicago Fire",
"market_prob_pct": 52.94,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Chicago Fire"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Chicago Fire\u0027s win probability at 52.9%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 44.0%, a difference of 9.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 8.96,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Chicago Fire",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 52.9,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-8.9 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -8.9,
"model_prob_pct": 44.0,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-8.9 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -8.9,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 76,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Chicago Fire, but the model still strongly favours Chicago Fire. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 43,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Chicago Fire 1.65 xG vs New York City FC 1.31 \u2192 Chicago Fire 44.0%",
"Market: Chicago Fire ~52.9% implied",
"Market Drift: Chicago Fire odds \u2191 +11.4%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Chicago Fire, but the market has moved away from Chicago Fire.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -8.96,
"hero_label": "Chicago Fire",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Chicago Fire odds lengthened \u2191 +11.4%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Chicago Fire. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Chicago Fire.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Chicago Fire. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Chicago Fire."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Chicago Fire above the current fair estimate.",
"Recent line movement on Chicago Fire (\u2191 +11.4%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (8/9) supports the current market view on Chicago Fire."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 8.96,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 15.0 pp (at 44.0%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 15.0,
"max_prob_pct": 44.0,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Chicago Fire",
"largest_gap_pp": -9.0,
"lead": "The closing market prices Chicago Fire higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 9.0,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -8.96,
"edge_pp": -8.96,
"fair_prob_pct": 43.98,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Chicago Fire",
"market_prob_pct": 52.94,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.2,
"edge_pp": 3.2,
"fair_prob_pct": 27.02,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 23.82,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 5.76,
"edge_pp": 5.76,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.0,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "New York City FC",
"market_prob_pct": 23.24,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Chicago Fire.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Chicago Fire (52.9%).",
"Chicago Fire odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +11.4%, 8/9) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Chicago Fire, Market \u2192 Chicago Fire, while Chicago Fire odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 55.56,
"closing_odds": 1.8,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 55.56,
"entry_odds": 1.8,
"match_phase": "live",
"match_phase_detail": "2H",
"match_phase_display": "Live \u00b7 2H",
"match_phase_label": "Live",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 8,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +11.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 9,
"bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.1
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "8/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 1.95,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +11.4%",
"move_pct_abs": 11.4,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 125h 15m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on Chicago Fire (11.4%, 8/9) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.4,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"1.95",
"1.85",
"1.75"
],
"display": "1.98 \u2192 1.70 \u2192 1.95",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 125h 15m",
"pick_team": "Chicago Fire",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "1.98"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "1.70"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "1.95"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
1.75,
1.8,
1.95
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,13.5 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "1.75"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "1.75"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "1.95"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "1.95"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 1.75,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 8/9 sportsbooks on Chicago Fire",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Chicago Fire",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 1.95,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +11.4%",
"open_odds": 1.75,
"summary": "Market moved away from Chicago Fire while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Chicago Fire",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 40,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "8/9",
"current_odds": 1.95,
"move_display": "\u2191 +11.4%",
"open_odds": 1.75,
"pick_team": "Chicago Fire",
"steam_score": 40,
"steam_team_name": "Chicago Fire",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 9.0,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "new-york-city-fc",
"away_expected_goals": 1.01,
"away_goal_display": 1,
"away_team_display_name": "New York City FC",
"away_team_id": 1604,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1604.webp",
"away_team_name": "New York City FC",
"away_team_public_id": "5WoZLZzOEcFZWs",
"away_team_slug": "new-york-city-fc",
"country_code": "US",
"country_display_name": "USA",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/us.svg",
"country_id": 163,
"country_name": "USA",
"fixture_id": 1490511,
"goals_away": 1,
"goals_home": 1,
"home_expected_goals": 0.25,
"home_goal_display": 1,
"home_team_country": "USA",
"home_team_display_name": "Chicago Fire",
"home_team_id": 1607,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1607.webp",
"home_team_name": "Chicago Fire",
"home_team_public_id": "1tuqWAfwjitXhS",
"home_team_slug": "chicago-fire",
"ht.home_team_slug": "chicago-fire",
"league_country": "USA",
"league_country_display": "USA",
"league_display_name": "Major League Soccer",
"league_id": 253,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/253.webp",
"league_name": "Major League Soccer",
"league_public_id": "2mZNhylXlUFt9l",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-10-10 18:30:00",
"public_id": "3dZyFkKSODEFvd",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Second Half",
"status_short": "2H",
"venue_city": "Chicago",
"venue_name": "Soldier Field"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1828,
"best_odd": 4.1,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0105,
"ev": -0.0042,
"implied_prob": 0.2324,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2324,
"draw": 0.2382,
"home": 0.5294
},
"model_prob": 0.2897,
"p_final": 0.2429
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1904,
"best_odd": 4.0,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0061,
"ev": -0.0228,
"implied_prob": 0.2382,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2324,
"draw": 0.2382,
"home": 0.5294
},
"model_prob": 0.2701,
"p_final": 0.2443
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.5198,
"best_odd": 1.8,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0463,
"ev": -0.1305,
"implied_prob": 0.5294,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2324,
"draw": 0.2382,
"home": 0.5294
},
"model_prob": 0.4402,
"p_final": 0.483
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 4.1,
"edge": 0.0458,
"ev": 0.1876,
"implied_prob": 0.2439,
"model_prob": 0.2897
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 4.0,
"edge": 0.0201,
"ev": 0.0804,
"implied_prob": 0.25,
"model_prob": 0.2701
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.8,
"edge": -0.1153,
"ev": -0.2076,
"implied_prob": 0.5556,
"model_prob": 0.4402
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.4098,
"alpha_yes": 0.5643,
"best_no_odd": 2.5,
"best_yes_odd": 1.53,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0152,
"edge_yes": -0.0142,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.01,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0533,
"ev_yes": -0.0744,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0825,
"implied_no": 0.3808,
"implied_yes": 0.6192,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.4098,
"best_odd": 2.45,
"edge": 0.0067,
"ev": -0.0533,
"implied_prob": 0.3797,
"model_prob": 0.396,
"p_final": 0.3864
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.5643,
"best_odd": 1.5,
"edge": -0.0086,
"ev": -0.0825,
"implied_prob": 0.6203,
"model_prob": 0.605,
"p_final": 0.6116
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"p_final_no": 0.3864,
"p_final_yes": 0.6116,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.5449,
"alpha_under": 0.3963,
"best_over_odd": 1.58,
"best_under_odd": 2.48,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.53,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.35,
"edge_over": -0.04,
"edge_under": 0.04,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1026,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1047,
"ev_under": 0.0714,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0382,
"implied_over": 0.608,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6057,
"implied_under": 0.392,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3943,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.5449,
"best_odd": 1.53,
"edge": -0.0205,
"ev": -0.1047,
"implied_prob": 0.6057,
"model_prob": 0.568,
"p_final": 0.5851
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.3963,
"best_odd": 2.35,
"edge": 0.0149,
"ev": -0.0382,
"implied_prob": 0.3943,
"model_prob": 0.432,
"p_final": 0.4093
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5851,
"p_final_under": 0.4093,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.96,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0714,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1876,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0714,
"confidence": 5.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 3.7,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.7,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 3.7,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.7
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.0,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Chicago Fire, but the model still strongly favours Chicago Fire."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0714,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1876,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 34,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Chicago Fire at 44.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 52.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Chicago Fire as the value side (44.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Chicago Fire, but the model still strongly favours Chicago Fire.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Chicago Fire",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Chicago Fire \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.75 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +19% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1490511 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.75 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +7.1% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +7.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +7.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +7.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "76 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+7.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Chicago Fire, but the model still strongly favours Chicago Fire.",
"Decision strength: 3.7/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +19% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 76,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Chicago Fire, but the model still strongly favours Chicago Fire.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1305,
"consensus_ev_display": "-13.1%",
"consensus_odds": 1.8,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5294,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4402,
"raw_edge_display": "-8.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -8.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5555555555555556,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2076,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-20.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 22.2,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.34
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
"scoring_type": "high_scoring",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.605,
"draw_prob": 0.2701,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4402,
"over_prob": 0.568,
"total_xg": 2.96,
"under_prob": 0.432,
"xg_diff": 0.34
},
"type": "high_scoring",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.8,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0463,
"ev": -0.1305,
"implied_prob": 0.5294,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4402,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Chicago Fire"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.4098,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.45,
"edge": 0.0067,
"market_prob": 0.3797,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.396,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.4098,
"best_odd": 2.45,
"edge": 0.0067,
"ev": -0.0533,
"implied_prob": 0.3797,
"model_prob": 0.396,
"p_final": 0.3864
},
"p_final": 0.3864,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0533,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.5643,
"best_odd": 1.5,
"edge": -0.0086,
"ev": -0.0825,
"implied_prob": 0.6203,
"model_prob": 0.605,
"p_final": 0.6116
}
},
"edge": 0.0152,
"ev": -0.01,
"implied_prob": 0.3808,
"model_prob": 0.396,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.3963,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.35,
"edge": 0.0149,
"market_prob": 0.3943,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.432,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.5449,
"best_odd": 1.53,
"edge": -0.0205,
"ev": -0.1047,
"implied_prob": 0.6057,
"model_prob": 0.568,
"p_final": 0.5851
},
"p_final": 0.4093,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0382,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.3963,
"best_odd": 2.35,
"edge": 0.0149,
"ev": -0.0382,
"implied_prob": 0.3943,
"model_prob": 0.432,
"p_final": 0.4093
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.04,
"ev": 0.0714,
"implied_prob": 0.392,
"model_prob": 0.432,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1490511,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0714,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.2897,
"draw": 0.2701,
"home": 0.4402
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "New York City FC",
"home": "Chicago Fire"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.029303,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0714,
"implied_prob": 0.392,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.432,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1305,
"consensus_ev_display": "-13.1%",
"consensus_odds": 1.8,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5294,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4402,
"raw_edge_display": "-8.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -8.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5555555555555556,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2076,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-20.8%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1490511,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-10-10T20:20:50.738767+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Langgan Sekarang
Major League Soccer — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 28 | 15 | 6 | 7 | 51 |
| 2 | St. Louis City | 28 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 50 |
| 3 | FC Dallas | 28 | 13 | 8 | 7 | 47 |
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 28 | 13 | 7 | 8 | 46 |
| 5 | Houston Dynamo | 28 | 13 | 6 | 9 | 45 |
| 6 | Los Angeles FC | 29 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 42 |
| 7 | Seattle Sounders | 28 | 11 | 8 | 9 | 41 |
| 8 | Colorado Rapids | 28 | 11 | 4 | 13 | 37 |
| 9 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 29 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 36 |
| 10 | Portland Timbers | 28 | 9 | 6 | 13 | 33 |
| 11 | Real Salt Lake | 28 | 9 | 5 | 14 | 32 |
| 12 | San Diego | 28 | 8 | 8 | 12 | 32 |
| 13 | Austin FC | 28 | 7 | 10 | 11 | 31 |
| 14 | Minnesota United FC | 28 | 7 | 9 | 12 | 30 |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 28 | 6 | 4 | 18 | 22 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 28 | 61 | 30 | +31 | 51 |
| 2 | St. Louis City | 28 | 54 | 38 | +16 | 50 |
| 3 | FC Dallas | 28 | 52 | 45 | +7 | 47 |
| 4 | Portland Timbers | 28 | 51 | 54 | -3 | 33 |
| 5 | San Jose Earthquakes | 28 | 50 | 40 | +10 | 46 |
| 6 | San Diego | 28 | 48 | 51 | -3 | 32 |
| 7 | Los Angeles FC | 29 | 44 | 31 | +13 | 42 |
| 8 | Minnesota United FC | 28 | 42 | 51 | -9 | 30 |
| 9 | Real Salt Lake | 28 | 41 | 46 | -5 | 32 |
| 10 | Colorado Rapids | 28 | 39 | 39 | 0 | 37 |
| 11 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 29 | 39 | 50 | -11 | 36 |
| 12 | Seattle Sounders | 28 | 38 | 35 | +3 | 41 |
| 13 | Houston Dynamo | 28 | 36 | 34 | +2 | 45 |
| 14 | Austin FC | 28 | 36 | 51 | -15 | 31 |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 28 | 35 | 68 | -33 | 22 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | xG | xGC | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St. Louis City | 28 | 19.6 | 10.8 | +8.8 | 50 |
| 2 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 28 | 17.4 | 8.8 | +8.6 | 51 |
| 3 | Colorado Rapids | 28 | 15.9 | 9.8 | +6.1 | 37 |
| 4 | Minnesota United FC | 28 | 20.7 | 16.9 | +3.8 | 30 |
| 5 | Portland Timbers | 28 | 21.2 | 17.8 | +3.4 | 33 |
| 6 | Los Angeles FC | 29 | 20.0 | 17.6 | +2.4 | 42 |
| 7 | San Diego | 28 | 19.4 | 17.1 | +2.3 | 32 |
| 8 | San Jose Earthquakes | 28 | 15.4 | 16.2 | -0.8 | 46 |
| 9 | Houston Dynamo | 28 | 14.1 | 14.9 | -0.8 | 45 |
| 10 | Seattle Sounders | 28 | 13.9 | 17.0 | -3.1 | 41 |
| 11 | FC Dallas | 28 | 13.6 | 17.2 | -3.6 | 47 |
| 12 | Real Salt Lake | 28 | 17.1 | 22.1 | -5.0 | 32 |
| 13 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 29 | 14.9 | 24.5 | -9.6 | 36 |
| 14 | Sporting Kansas City | 28 | 12.3 | 24.0 | -11.7 | 22 |
| 15 | Austin FC | 28 | 11.2 | 23.0 | -11.8 | 31 |
