Ghana vs Panama Statistics & Analysis

Jun 17, 2026 - 23:00
1 0.97
0 1.73
xG Accuracy: 62%
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang

Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa

Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.

  • Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
  • Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Tidak ✖ tak betul
  • 1X2 Panama Ghana ✖ tak betul
  • Cerapan skor tepat 0-1, 1-1, 0-2, 1-2, 0-0 1-0 ✖ tak betul

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 20:42 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1504535

Closing Odds 3.38
AI Fair Odds 1.85
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Ghana win · Ghana 1–0 Panama
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Probability Calibration

  • Expected: 54.0%
  • Historical Bucket: 50–55% — Building sample

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Intelijen pasaran

Bacaan selepas pilihan utama: bagaimana suapan penutup berprioriti bergerak berbanding model.

Ringkasan pasaran

Pasaran kekal stabil menjelang sepakan. Tiada anjakan implied ketara antara PRE30 dan PRE1 pada snapshot berprioriti.

Walaupun pergerakan lewat kecil, model masih menilai Panama (1X2),Lebih 2.5 gol jauh melebihi implied snapshot penutupan — bacaan statik "model vs harga", bukan kejaran steam.

Model masih melebihi implied penutupan pada Panama (1X2) kira-kira 25.1 mata peratus — isyarat salah harga paling jelas pada halaman ini.

Model vs implied penutup

Pasaran Model % Implied penutup % Jurang (pp)
Ghana (1X2) 19.4 40.6 -21.2
Lukis (1X2) 26.6 30.5 -3.9
Panama (1X2) 54.0 28.9 +25.1
Lebih 2.5 gol 50.6 39.9 +10.8
Bawah 2.5 gol 49.4 60.1 -10.8
Apa maksudnya

Secara ringkas: model kira-kira 54.0% pada Panama (1X2), manakala snapshot penutup menunjukkan kira-kira 28.9%. Bezanya — kira-kira 25.1 mata peratus — ialah jurang model-vs-pasaran terbesar yang ditonjolkan di halaman ini.

Ringkas: "implied penutup" ialah kebarangkalian terbit daripada odds akhir yang ditangkap (selepas de-vig ringkas). "Jurang (pp)" = peratus model tolak implied tersebut, dalam mata peratus (pp).

Pergerakan garisan menjelang sepakan mula

Satu buku prioriti setiap snapshot (bukan semua). Laluan tangkapan: PRE30 → PRE1 · Buku: Pinnacle

Dalam kurungan pada lajur: Penutup = snapshot pertama tersedia ikut PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Awal = pertama dalam PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 yang berbeza daripada Penutup.

Odds terperinci dilipat di bawah — pergerakan implied (de-vig) boleh diabaikan.

Lihat jadual penuh baris demi baris
Pasaran Awal (PRE30) Penutup (PRE1) Δ tersirat (pp)
Ghana (1X2) 2.41 2.41 0.0
Lukis (1X2) 3.21 3.21 0.0
Panama (1X2) 3.38 3.38 0.0
Lebih 2.5 gol 2.43 2.43 0.0
Bawah 2.5 gol 1.61 1.61 0.0

Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.

View technical JSON
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    ],
    "market_intelligence": {
      "betting_signal": {
        "alert_breadth": "13/14",
        "alert_breadth_note": "13/14 sportsbooks confirmed",
        "alert_move": "\u2191 +15.0%",
        "alert_team": "Ghana",
        "alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
        "divergence_pp": 25.1,
        "has_alert": true,
        "hero_edge_pp": 25.06,
        "hero_label": "Panama",
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        "model_prob_pct": 54.0,
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        "status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
        "steam_score": 85,
        "steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
        "steam_tier": "A+",
        "title": "Betting Signal"
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      "edge_rows": [
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          "edge_pp": -21.19,
          "fair_prob": 19.4,
          "label": "Ghana",
          "market_prob": 40.59,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "home"
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        {
          "edge_pp": -3.87,
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          "label": "Draw",
          "market_prob": 30.47,
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          "outcome": "draw"
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        {
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          "label": "Panama",
          "market_prob": 28.94,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "away"
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        {
          "edge_pp": 9.96,
          "fair_prob": 50.6,
          "label": "Over 2.5",
          "market_prob": 40.64,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "over"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -9.96,
          "fair_prob": 49.4,
          "label": "Under 2.5",
          "market_prob": 59.36,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "under"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 4.92,
          "fair_prob": 52.5,
          "label": "BTTS Yes",
          "market_prob": 47.58,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "yes"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -4.92,
          "fair_prob": 47.5,
          "label": "BTTS No",
          "market_prob": 52.42,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "no"
        }
      ],
      "edge_snapshot": {
        "edge_label": "extreme_disagreement",
        "edge_pp": 25.06,
        "fair_prob_pct": 54.0,
        "hero_side": "away",
        "hero_team_name": "Panama",
        "market_prob_pct": 28.94,
        "status": "strong_disagreement",
        "steam_team_name": "Ghana"
      },
      "fair_source": "wc_poisson",
      "fair_vs_market": {
        "comparison_available": true,
        "comparison_disabled": false,
        "degraded_note": "",
        "divergence_guard": {
          "divergence_level": "extreme",
          "edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
          "max_gap_pp": 25.06,
          "suppress_hero": false,
          "suppress_value_language": true
        },
        "divergence_label": "Extreme model-market divergence",
        "divergence_level": "extreme",
        "divergence_level_label": "Extreme divergence",
        "divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs substantially from current market pricing. Large divergences can occur when rating inputs are incomplete, team-strength estimates are uncertain, or the market incorporates information not present in the model. Interpret with caution.",
        "divergence_tier": "extreme",
        "edge_label": "Extreme disagreement",
        "edge_label_key": "extreme_disagreement",
        "fair_confidence": "high",
        "fair_confidence_label": "High",
        "fair_source_note": "Fair probability estimated from Elo-adjusted Poisson model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
        "forecast_assessment": {
          "favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
          "favourite_label": "Panama",
          "forecast_certainty_tier": "medium",
          "headline": "Slight edge match",
          "market_agreement_label": "Weak",
          "market_prob_pct": 28.9,
          "model_prob_pct": 54.0,
          "outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
          "paragraphs": [],
          "reliability_headline": "Use caution",
          "reliability_icon": "!",
          "reliability_tier": "caution",
          "summary": "Model and market lean the same side on Panama, but pricing gaps warrant caution.",
          "tier": "slight_edge",
          "title": "Prediction Assessment",
          "validation_label": "Warning"
        },
        "forecast_certainty": {
          "note": "A lead outcome exists, but the match is not one-sided in the model.",
          "tier": "medium",
          "tier_label": "Medium"
        },
        "forecast_certainty_label": "Medium",
        "has_market_probs": true,
        "hero_edge_pp": 25.06,
        "hero_label": "Panama",
        "hero_side": "away",
        "market_activity": "Ghana odds lengthened \u2191 +15.0%.",
        "market_agreement": "weak",
        "market_agreement_label": "Weak",
        "market_interpretation": {},
        "market_narrative": {},
        "max_gap_pp": 25.06,
        "model_validation": {
          "score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
          "status": "warning"
        },
        "model_validation_label": "Warning",
        "outcome_separation": {
          "breakdown": [
            "Favourite exceeds second outcome by 27.4 pp (at 54.0%)."
          ],
          "lead_gap_pp": 27.4,
          "max_prob_pct": 54.0,
          "note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
          "tier": "medium",
          "tier_label": "Medium"
        },
        "outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
        "rows": [
          {
            "edge_pp": -21.19,
            "fair_prob_pct": 19.4,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Ghana",
            "market_prob_pct": 40.59,
            "side": "home"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": -3.87,
            "fair_prob_pct": 26.6,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Draw",
            "market_prob_pct": 30.47,
            "side": "draw"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": 25.06,
            "fair_prob_pct": 54.0,
            "is_hero": true,
            "label": "Panama",
            "market_prob_pct": 28.94,
            "side": "away"
          }
        ],
        "status": "strong_disagreement",
        "status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
        "steam_note": "",
        "unavailable_note": ""
      },
      "interpretation": {
        "has_conflict": true,
        "paragraphs": [
          "The betting market strongly prefers Ghana (28.9%).",
          "However, Ghana has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2191 +15.0%, 13/14).",
          "This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Panama, Market \u2192 Ghana, Recent sharp money \u2192 Ghana.",
          "Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
        ],
        "show": true,
        "title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
      },
      "lifecycle": {
        "closing_implied_pct": 29.59,
        "closing_odds": 3.38,
        "clv_pending": true,
        "clv_pp": 0.0,
        "clv_status": "pending",
        "context": "match",
        "current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
        "current_stage_detail": "",
        "current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
        "entry_implied_pct": 29.59,
        "entry_odds": 3.38,
        "model_validation_label": "Warning",
        "model_validation_status": "warning",
        "stages": [
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "forecast_generated",
            "label": "Prediction Generated",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "market_detected",
            "label": "Market Compared",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "model_validated",
            "label": "Validation Passed",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "PRE1",
            "id": "closing_recorded",
            "label": "Closing Recorded",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "clv_evaluated",
            "label": "CLV Evaluated",
            "status": "pending"
          }
        ]
      },
      "market_move_intelligence": {
        "books_reacting": 13,
        "books_total": 14,
        "breadth_display": "13/14",
        "clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
        "clv_status": "evaluated",
        "current_odds": 2.3,
        "move_context": "Largest move today",
        "move_display": "\u2191 +15.0%",
        "move_pct_abs": 15.0,
        "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
        "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 299h 57m",
        "narrative_paragraphs": [
          "13/14 books synchronized on Ghana (15.0% steam, score 85) \u2014 high-conviction multi-book repricing beats isolated ticks.",
          "Sharp sportsbooks led a meaningful repricing with broad market follow-through."
        ],
        "narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
        "odds_path": {
          "display": "2.44 \u2192 1.95 \u2192 2.30",
          "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
          "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 299h 57m",
          "pick_team": "Ghana",
          "points": [
            {
              "label_key": "open",
              "value": "2.44"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "extreme",
              "value": "1.95"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "current",
              "value": "2.30"
            }
          ],
          "sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,4.8",
          "sparkline_trend": "up",
          "sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise"
        },
        "open_odds": 2.0,
        "page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: Ghana \u2191 +15.0% market move detected",
        "phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
        "phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
        "pick_team": "Ghana",
        "ref_book": "Bet365",
        "seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: Ghana \u2191 +15.0% market move detected",
        "sharp_leader": "Betfair",
        "show": true,
        "signal_badge_class": "steam",
        "signal_icon": "\ud83d\udd25",
        "signal_key": "strong_steam",
        "signal_label": "Strong steam",
        "steam_score": 85,
        "steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
        "steam_tier": "A+",
        "title": "Market Move Intelligence"
      },
      "market_overview": {
        "breadth_display": "13/14",
        "current_odds": 2.3,
        "move_display": "\u2191 +15.0%",
        "open_odds": 2.0,
        "pick_team": "Ghana",
        "steam_score": 85,
        "steam_team_name": "Ghana",
        "steam_tier": "A+"
      },
      "premium_teaser": {
        "current_divergence_pp": 25.1,
        "divergence_label": "Current divergence",
        "title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
        "unlock_items": [
          "Historical similar matches",
          "Closing odds analysis",
          "CLV tracking",
          "Sharp money signals",
          "Market efficiency rating",
          "Historical model vs market results"
        ],
        "unlock_label": "Unlock"
      },
      "show": true
    },
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 11,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/11.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Panama",
      "country_code": null,
      "country_flag": null,
      "country_name": "World",
      "fixture_id": 1489385,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_country": "Ghana",
      "home_team_id": 1504,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1504.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Ghana",
      "league_country": "World",
      "league_id": 1,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/1.webp",
      "league_name": "Piala Dunia",
      "league_season": 2026,
      "match_date": "2026-06-17 23:00:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS",
      "venue_city": "Toronto",
      "venue_name": "BMO Field"
    },
    "match_decision": {
      "confidence": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 7.5
      },
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.1871,
            "best_odd": 3.38,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0469,
            "ev": 0.1368,
            "implied_prob": 0.2894,
            "model_prob": 0.5402,
            "p_final": 0.3363
          },
          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.2825,
            "best_odd": 3.21,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.011,
            "ev": -0.0571,
            "implied_prob": 0.3047,
            "model_prob": 0.2658,
            "p_final": 0.2937
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.307,
            "best_odd": 2.41,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.065,
            "ev": -0.1786,
            "implied_prob": 0.4059,
            "model_prob": 0.194,
            "p_final": 0.3408
          }
        },
        "btts": {
          "best_no_odd": 1.87,
          "best_yes_odd": 2.02,
          "edge_no": -0.0492,
          "edge_yes": 0.0492,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_no": -0.1118,
          "ev_yes": 0.0605,
          "implied_no": 0.5242,
          "implied_yes": 0.4758,
          "n_bookmakers": 11,
          "reliability": "medium"
        },
        "ou25": {
          "best_over_odd": 2.42,
          "best_under_odd": 1.65,
          "edge_over": 0.0996,
          "edge_under": -0.0996,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_over": 0.2245,
          "ev_under": -0.1849,
          "implied_over": 0.4064,
          "implied_under": 0.5936,
          "n_bookmakers": 12,
          "reliability": "medium"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 2.7,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.2.0"
      },
      "balanced_alternative": null,
      "best_tracked_ev": 0.2245,
      "confidence": 7.5,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
          "pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Primary line identified (+1.0)",
          "Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
          "Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 7.5
      },
      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": true,
        "1x2_open_contest": false,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
      },
      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
      },
      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
        "scoring_type": "neutral",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.525,
          "draw_prob": 0.2658,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.5402,
          "over_prob": 0.506,
          "total_xg": 2.7,
          "under_prob": 0.494,
          "xg_diff": 0.768
        },
        "type": "neutral",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
      },
      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.0469,
          "ev": 0.1368,
          "implied_prob": 0.2894,
          "max_ev_side": "away",
          "model_prob": 0.5402,
          "side": "away",
          "side_label": "Panama"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.0492,
          "ev": 0.0605,
          "implied_prob": 0.4758,
          "model_prob": 0.525,
          "side": "yes",
          "value_side": "yes"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.0996,
          "ev": 0.2245,
          "implied_prob": 0.4064,
          "model_prob": 0.506,
          "side": "over",
          "value_side": "over"
        }
      },
      "match_id": 1489385,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "bet",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": true,
        "code": "clear_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.2245,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 1.0,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.5402,
        "draw": 0.2658,
        "home": 0.194
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "high_total_goals"
      ],
      "secondary_pick": {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.1368,
        "implied_prob": 0.2894,
        "market": "1x2",
        "model_prob": 0.5402,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "secondary",
        "side": "away",
        "side_label": "Panama",
        "slot": "secondary"
      },
      "secondary_picks": [
        {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "ev": 0.1368,
          "implied_prob": 0.2894,
          "market": "1x2",
          "model_prob": 0.5402,
          "not_dominant": false,
          "risk_band": "strong",
          "risk_tier": "secondary",
          "side": "away",
          "side_label": "Panama",
          "slot": "secondary"
        },
        {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "ev": 0.0605,
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          "market": "btts",
          "model_prob": 0.525,
          "not_dominant": false,
          "risk_band": "strong",
          "risk_tier": "secondary",
          "side": "yes",
          "slot": "secondary"
        }
      ],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Panama",
        "home": "Ghana"
      },
      "top_pick": {
        "composite_score": 0.113597,
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.2245,
        "implied_prob": 0.4064,
        "market": "ou_2_5",
        "model_prob": 0.506,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "over",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
      },
      "valid_markets_count": 3
    }
  },
  "fixture_id": 1489385,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-06-17T22:59:05.777445+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}

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Piala Dunia Piala Dunia — Kedudukan
# PASUKAN P M S K Mata
1 Mexico 3 3 0 0 9
2 Afrika Selatan 3 1 1 1 4
3 Korea Selatan 3 1 0 2 3
4 Czech Republic 3 0 1 2 1
# PASUKAN P J B +/- Mata
1 Mexico 3 6 0 +6 9
2 Afrika Selatan 3 2 3 -1 4
3 Korea Selatan 3 2 3 -1 3
4 Czech Republic 3 2 6 -4 1
# PASUKAN P xG xGC +/- Mata
1 Mexico 3 6.6 3.8 +2.8 9
2 Korea Selatan 3 4.1 2.5 +1.6 3
3 Afrika Selatan 3 2.7 4.7 -2.0 4
4 Czech Republic 3 2.4 5.4 -3.0 1