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Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the model’s highlighted side (or lean) to what happened at full time.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Lebih / Kurang 2.5 Lebih 2.5 Lebih 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Netherlands Lukis ✖ Incorrect
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 1-2 2-2 ✖ Incorrect
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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"key": "12",
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{
"key": "X2",
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],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Netherlands or Japan",
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"draw_pct": 28.8,
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{
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"tier": "best",
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{
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"ev_no": -0.1328,
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},
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"tier": "best",
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{
"decision": "no_bet",
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"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4636,
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"max_ev_display": {
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"raw_pct": 3.7,
"text": "+3.7%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4001,
"side_label": "Netherlands",
"sort_key": 5229.28,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 816.6,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
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}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "10/14",
"alert_breadth_note": "10/14 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -7.9%",
"alert_team": "Draw",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 6.4,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -6.36,
"hero_label": "Netherlands",
"market_prob_pct": 46.4,
"market_team": "Netherlands",
"model_prob_pct": 40.0,
"model_team": "Netherlands",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Model and market broadly aligned",
"steam_score": 50,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -6.36,
"fair_prob": 40.0,
"label": "Netherlands",
"market_prob": 46.36,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.77,
"fair_prob": 28.8,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 28.03,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.59,
"fair_prob": 31.2,
"label": "Japan",
"market_prob": 25.61,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.7,
"fair_prob": 50.6,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 46.9,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.7,
"fair_prob": 49.4,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 53.1,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.7,
"fair_prob": 56.2,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 51.5,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.7,
"fair_prob": 43.8,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 48.5,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -6.36,
"fair_prob_pct": 40.0,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Netherlands",
"market_prob_pct": 46.36,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Draw"
},
"fair_source": "wc_poisson",
"fair_vs_market": {
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"comparison_disabled": false,
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 6.36,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "high",
"fair_confidence_label": "High",
"fair_source_note": "Fair probability estimated from Elo-adjusted Poisson model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Netherlands",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_prob_pct": 46.4,
"model_prob_pct": 40.0,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"reliability_headline": "Reliable prediction",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_tier": "reliable",
"summary": "Both lean Netherlands, but the market prices them higher (46.4% vs model 40.0%). The edge remains modest and the match stays relatively open.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass"
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -6.36,
"hero_label": "Netherlands",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Draw odds shortened \u2193 -7.9%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Draw, with odds shortening by 7.9%.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Netherlands. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Buying interest on Draw \u2014 odds shortened by 7.9%.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Netherlands. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Draw, with odds shortening by 7.9%.",
"Buying interest on Draw \u2014 odds shortened by 7.9%."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Netherlands above the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Draw has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 7.9%.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (10/14) supports the current market view on Draw."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"max_gap_pp": 6.36,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 8.8 pp (at 40.0%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 8.8,
"max_prob_pct": 40.0,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -6.36,
"fair_prob_pct": 40.0,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Netherlands",
"market_prob_pct": 46.36,
"side": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.77,
"fair_prob_pct": 28.8,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 28.03,
"side": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.59,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.2,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Japan",
"market_prob_pct": 25.61,
"side": "away"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Buying interest on Draw \u2014 odds shortened by 7.9%.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Netherlands (46.4%).",
"However, Draw has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -7.9%, 10/14).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Netherlands, Market \u2192 Netherlands, Recent sharp money \u2192 Draw.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 47.39,
"closing_odds": 2.11,
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 47.39,
"entry_odds": 2.11,
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 10,
"books_total": 14,
"breadth_display": "10/14",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.5,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -7.9%",
"move_pct_abs": 7.9,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 224h 16m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Bet365 led repricing on Draw (7.9%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_path": {
"display": "3.80 \u2192 3.10 \u2192 3.50",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 224h 16m",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.80"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.10"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.50"
}
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,18.0 56.0,17.4",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop"
},
"open_odds": 3.8,
"page_alert_line": "Strong steam move across 10/14 sportsbooks on Draw",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 50,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "10/14",
"current_odds": 3.5,
"move_display": "\u2193 -7.9%",
"open_odds": 3.8,
"pick_team": "Draw",
"steam_score": 50,
"steam_team_name": "Draw",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 6.4,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 12,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/12.webp",
"away_team_name": "Japan",
"country_code": null,
"country_flag": null,
"country_name": "World",
"fixture_id": 1489376,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_country": "Netherlands",
"home_team_id": 1118,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1118.webp",
"home_team_name": "Netherlands",
"league_country": "World",
"league_id": 1,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/1.webp",
"league_name": "World Cup",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-06-14 20:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Arlington",
"venue_name": "AT\u0026T Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.275,
"best_odd": 3.82,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0153,
"ev": 0.0366,
"implied_prob": 0.2561,
"model_prob": 0.3116,
"p_final": 0.2714
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2964,
"best_odd": 3.49,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0024,
"ev": -0.0135,
"implied_prob": 0.2803,
"model_prob": 0.2883,
"p_final": 0.2827
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4071,
"best_odd": 2.11,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0259,
"ev": -0.0763,
"implied_prob": 0.4636,
"model_prob": 0.4001,
"p_final": 0.4378
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 1.98,
"best_yes_odd": 1.87,
"edge_no": -0.047,
"edge_yes": 0.047,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1328,
"ev_yes": 0.0509,
"implied_no": 0.485,
"implied_yes": 0.515,
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 2.11,
"best_under_odd": 1.94,
"edge_over": 0.037,
"edge_under": -0.037,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0677,
"ev_under": -0.0416,
"implied_over": 0.469,
"implied_under": 0.531,
"n_bookmakers": 12,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.7,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0677,
"confidence": 5.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 5.5
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
"scoring_type": "neutral",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.562,
"draw_prob": 0.2883,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4001,
"over_prob": 0.506,
"total_xg": 2.7,
"under_prob": 0.494,
"xg_diff": 0.192
},
"type": "neutral",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0366,
"implied_prob": 0.2561,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.3116,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "speculative",
"risk_tier": "longshot",
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Japan",
"slot": "longshot"
}
],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0259,
"ev": -0.0763,
"implied_prob": 0.4636,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4001,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Netherlands"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.047,
"ev": 0.0509,
"implied_prob": 0.515,
"model_prob": 0.562,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.037,
"ev": 0.0677,
"implied_prob": 0.469,
"model_prob": 0.506,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1489376,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0677,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3116,
"draw": 0.2883,
"home": 0.4001
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"high_total_goals",
"longshot_high_variance"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0509,
"implied_prob": 0.515,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.562,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0509,
"implied_prob": 0.515,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.562,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Japan",
"home": "Netherlands"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.034256,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0677,
"implied_prob": 0.469,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.506,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3
}
},
"fixture_id": 1489376,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-06-14T19:59:04.580488+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Bagaimana untuk menggunakan ini
- Fokus pada baris Utama apabila anda mahukan satu idea yang boleh diambil tindakan.
- Jangan parlay banyak picks tepi nipis bersama-sama;tepi tidak menambah dengan pasti.
- Anggap pukulan panjang sebagai permainan pilihan, bersaiz tinggi sahaja.
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