Polanka nad Odrou vs Hodonín Statistics & Analysis

{
  "bundle_version": 1,
  "content_hash": "2799e975e5a658b78c84eedd4f249f2fee1001b709966440343c0e1d0921a6da",
  "decision_algo_version": "2.2.0",
  "facts": {
    "ai_fp": {
      "away_predicted_xg": 1.81,
      "away_win_prob": 0.4806,
      "away_win_prob_posterior": null,
      "bayes_applied": 0,
      "btts_no_prob": 0.378,
      "btts_yes_prob": 0.622,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
      "draw_prob": 0.2573,
      "draw_prob_posterior": null,
      "fair_odds_away": 2.08,
      "fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
      "fair_odds_draw": 3.89,
      "fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
      "fair_odds_home": 3.82,
      "fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
      "home_predicted_xg": 1.3,
      "home_win_prob": 0.2621,
      "home_win_prob_posterior": null,
      "over_25_prob": 0.601,
      "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
      "under_25_prob": 0.399
    },
    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "Winner : Hodon\u00edn",
      "main_pick_display": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
      "percent_away": "50%",
      "percent_draw": "50%",
      "percent_home": "0%",
      "winner_name": "Hodon\u00edn"
    },
    "away_xg": 1.81,
    "betting_insight": {
      "bet_label": "Hodon\u00edn",
      "confidence": null,
      "main_pick_meta": {
        "confidence": "low",
        "display_text": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
        "edge": -0.1414,
        "edge_gap": 0.2191,
        "market": "1X2",
        "market_prob": 0.6223,
        "model_prob": 0.481,
        "pick_type": "no_value",
        "probabilities": {
          "away": 48.1,
          "draw": 25.7,
          "home": 26.2
        },
        "reason": "Model probability is not above market implied probability",
        "selection": null,
        "selection_name": null
      },
      "market_comparison": [
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
          "odd": 1.44
        }
      ],
      "risk_color": null,
      "risk_key": null,
      "stacked_market": null,
      "value_bet": {
        "best_odds": 1.44,
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
        "display_market": "Hodon\u00edn Win",
        "is_value": false,
        "label": "Away",
        "market_fair_odds": 1.61,
        "market_odds": 1.44,
        "model_odds": 2.08,
        "overround": 11.6,
        "prob_edge": -21.4,
        "value_pct": -30.8,
        "value_rating": "no_value"
      }
    },
    "betting_markets": {
      "btts": {
        "away_clean_sheet": 9,
        "away_failed_to_score": 3,
        "away_played": 31,
        "away_score_rate": 83.6,
        "home_clean_sheet": 5,
        "home_failed_to_score": 11,
        "home_played": 31,
        "home_score_rate": 72.7,
        "no_prob": 37.8,
        "pick": "Yes",
        "pick_prob": 62.2,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "yes_prob": 62.2
      },
      "correct_score": {
        "away_expected": 1.81,
        "home_expected": 1.3,
        "scores": [
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-1",
            "prob": 10.5
          },
          {
            "away": 2,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-2",
            "prob": 9.5
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 0,
            "label": "0-1",
            "prob": 8.1
          },
          {
            "away": 2,
            "home": 0,
            "label": "0-2",
            "prob": 7.3
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-1",
            "prob": 6.8
          }
        ],
        "source": "xG"
      },
      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
          {
            "key": "1X",
            "label": "Polanka nad Odrou or Draw",
            "prob": 51.9
          },
          {
            "key": "12",
            "label": "Polanka nad Odrou or Hodon\u00edn",
            "prob": 74.3
          },
          {
            "key": "X2",
            "label": "Draw or Hodon\u00edn",
            "prob": 73.8
          }
        ],
        "pick_key": "12",
        "pick_label": "Polanka nad Odrou or Hodon\u00edn",
        "pick_prob": 74.3
      },
      "match_winner": {
        "away_pct": 48.1,
        "draw_pct": 25.7,
        "home_pct": 26.2,
        "lean_key": "away",
        "lean_label": "Hodon\u00edn"
      },
      "over_under": {
        "api_hint": null,
        "avg_total": 3.11,
        "away_avg_scored": 2.3,
        "confidence": "medium",
        "home_avg_scored": 1.0,
        "over_prob": 60.1,
        "pick": "Over 2.5",
        "pick_prob": 60.1,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": false,
        "total_expected": 3.11,
        "under_prob": 39.9
      },
      "prob_source": "poisson",
      "value_bet_enhanced": {
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
        "edge": 37.6,
        "implied_prob": 19.0,
        "is_value": true,
        "label": "Home",
        "market": "Polanka nad Odrou Win",
        "model_prob": 26.2,
        "odds": 5.25
      }
    },
    "closing_line_bundle": {
      "away_team": "Hodon\u00edn",
      "closing_bookmaker": "Bet365",
      "closing_capture": "PRE1",
      "early_bookmaker": "Bet365",
      "early_capture": "PRE30",
      "has_data": true,
      "home_team": "Polanka nad Odrou",
      "largest_move_kind": null,
      "max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
      "model_vs_closing": [
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 17.07,
          "gap_pp": 9.12,
          "kind": "1x2_h",
          "model_pct": 26.19
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 20.7,
          "gap_pp": 5.02,
          "kind": "1x2_d",
          "model_pct": 25.72
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 62.23,
          "gap_pp": -14.14,
          "kind": "1x2_a",
          "model_pct": 48.1
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 60.87,
          "gap_pp": -0.77,
          "kind": "ou_o",
          "model_pct": 60.1
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 39.13,
          "gap_pp": 0.77,
          "kind": "ou_u",
          "model_pct": 39.9
        }
      ],
      "movement": [
        {
          "closing": 5.25,
          "early": 5.25,
          "implied_closing_pct": 17.07,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 17.07,
          "kind": "1x2_h"
        },
        {
          "closing": 4.33,
          "early": 4.33,
          "implied_closing_pct": 20.7,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 20.7,
          "kind": "1x2_d"
        },
        {
          "closing": 1.44,
          "early": 1.44,
          "implied_closing_pct": 62.23,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 62.23,
          "kind": "1x2_a"
        },
        {
          "closing": 1.53,
          "early": 1.53,
          "implied_closing_pct": 60.87,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 60.87,
          "kind": "ou_o"
        },
        {
          "closing": 2.38,
          "early": 2.38,
          "implied_closing_pct": 39.13,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 39.13,
          "kind": "ou_u"
        }
      ],
      "movement_negligible": true,
      "same_bookmaker": true,
      "top_value_gap": {
        "gap_pp": 9.1,
        "kind": "1x2_h"
      }
    },
    "correct_score_insight": {
      "best_value": null,
      "most_likely": {
        "label": "1-1",
        "prob": 10.5
      }
    },
    "home_xg": 1.3,
    "homepage_pick": null,
    "market_cards": [
      {
        "decision": "small_edge",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_no": -0.2062,
        "ev_no_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": -20.6,
          "text": "-20.6%"
        },
        "ev_yes": 0.0201,
        "ev_yes_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": 2.0,
          "text": "+2.0%"
        },
        "featured": true,
        "id": "btts",
        "max_ev": 0.0201,
        "no_prob": 37.8,
        "sort_key": 5216.08,
        "tier": "lean",
        "value_side": "yes",
        "yes_prob": 62.2
      },
      {
        "decision": "no_bet",
        "ev": -0.2001,
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": -20.0,
          "text": "-20.0%"
        },
        "featured": false,
        "id": "1x2",
        "implied_prob": 0.6223,
        "max_ev": -0.0212,
        "max_ev_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": -2.1,
          "text": "-2.1%"
        },
        "model_prob": 0.481,
        "side_label": "Hodon\u00edn",
        "sort_key": 1794.7,
        "tier": "bad_ev"
      },
      {
        "decision": "lean",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_over": -0.0805,
        "ev_over_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": -8.1,
          "text": "-8.1%"
        },
        "ev_under": -0.0504,
        "ev_under_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": -5.0,
          "text": "-5.0%"
        },
        "featured": false,
        "id": "ou_2_5",
        "max_ev": -0.0504,
        "over_prob": 60.1,
        "sort_key": 1787.4,
        "tier": "bad_ev",
        "under_prob": 39.9,
        "value_side": "under"
      },
      {
        "featured": false,
        "id": "correct_score",
        "sort_key": 811.5,
        "tier": "risk",
        "top_label": "1-1",
        "top_prob": 10.5
      }
    ],
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 7297,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/7297.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Hodon\u00edn",
      "country_code": "CZ",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/cz.svg",
      "country_name": "Czech-Republic",
      "fixture_id": 1487431,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_country": "Czech-Republic",
      "home_team_id": 7332,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/7332.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Polanka nad Odrou",
      "league_country": "Czech-Republic",
      "league_id": 349,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/349.webp",
      "league_name": "3. liga - MSFL",
      "league_season": 2025,
      "match_date": "2026-06-03 15:30:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS",
      "venue_city": null,
      "venue_name": "Stadium Polanka nad Odrou"
    },
    "match_decision": {
      "confidence": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.5
      },
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.4728,
            "best_odd": 1.44,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0668,
            "ev": -0.2001,
            "implied_prob": 0.6223,
            "model_prob": 0.481,
            "p_final": 0.5555
          },
          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.1849,
            "best_odd": 4.33,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0093,
            "ev": -0.0636,
            "implied_prob": 0.207,
            "model_prob": 0.2572,
            "p_final": 0.2163
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.1726,
            "best_odd": 5.25,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0157,
            "ev": -0.0212,
            "implied_prob": 0.1707,
            "model_prob": 0.2619,
            "p_final": 0.1864
          }
        },
        "btts": {
          "best_no_odd": 2.1,
          "best_yes_odd": 1.64,
          "edge_no": -0.0637,
          "edge_yes": 0.0637,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_no": -0.2062,
          "ev_yes": 0.0201,
          "implied_no": 0.4417,
          "implied_yes": 0.5583,
          "n_bookmakers": 3,
          "reliability": "medium"
        },
        "ou25": {
          "best_over_odd": 1.53,
          "best_under_odd": 2.38,
          "edge_over": 0.0007,
          "edge_under": -0.0007,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_over": -0.0805,
          "ev_under": -0.0504,
          "implied_over": 0.6003,
          "implied_under": 0.3997,
          "n_bookmakers": 6,
          "reliability": "medium"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 3.11,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.2.0"
      },
      "balanced_alternative": null,
      "best_tracked_ev": 0.0201,
      "confidence": 4.0,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
        ],
        "score": 4.0
      },
      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": false,
        "1x2_open_contest": true,
        "grade": "C",
        "stake_factor": 0.0
      },
      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
      },
      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
        "scoring_type": "high_scoring",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.622,
          "draw_prob": 0.2572,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.481,
          "over_prob": 0.601,
          "total_xg": 3.11,
          "under_prob": 0.399,
          "xg_diff": 0.51
        },
        "type": "high_scoring",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
      },
      "hero_display_pick": {
        "decision": "small_edge",
        "ev": 0.0201,
        "hero_display_only": true,
        "implied_prob": 0.5583,
        "market": "btts",
        "model_prob": 0.622,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "hero_display",
        "side": "yes",
        "slot": "hero_display"
      },
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "decision": "no_bet",
          "edge": -0.0668,
          "ev": -0.2001,
          "implied_prob": 0.6223,
          "max_ev_side": "home",
          "model_prob": 0.481,
          "side": "away",
          "side_label": "Hodon\u00edn"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "small_edge",
          "edge": 0.0637,
          "ev": 0.0201,
          "implied_prob": 0.5583,
          "model_prob": 0.622,
          "side": "yes",
          "value_side": "yes"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "lean",
          "edge": -0.0007,
          "ev": -0.0504,
          "implied_prob": 0.3997,
          "model_prob": 0.399,
          "side": "under",
          "value_side": "under"
        }
      },
      "match_id": 1487431,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "optional",
        "actionable": false,
        "clear_edge": false,
        "code": "thin_edge",
        "execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
        "insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
        "max_valid_ev": 0.0201,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 0.25,
        "use_split_strip": true
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.481,
        "draw": 0.2572,
        "home": 0.2619
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "no_ev_1x2",
        "high_total_goals"
      ],
      "secondary_pick": null,
      "secondary_picks": [],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Hodon\u00edn",
        "home": "Polanka nad Odrou"
      },
      "top_pick": null,
      "valid_markets_count": 1
    }
  },
  "fixture_id": 1487431,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-06-03T18:14:07.100328+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}