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Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the model’s highlighted side (or lean) to what happened at full time.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Chile W Ecuador W ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 3-1 1-2 ✖ Incorrect
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View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "9cbbf59d60af2d03ed70dd892cfb381c93b63d332794f176911ee81375744d97",
"decision_algo_version": "2.2.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.08,
"away_win_prob": 0.2056,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.43,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.57,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2545,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 4.86,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.93,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 1.85,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.85,
"home_win_prob": 0.5399,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.561,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.439
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Double chance : Chile W or draw and -3.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Chile W"
},
"away_xg": 1.08,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Chile W",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
"edge": -0.0027,
"edge_gap": 0.2859,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.5428,
"model_prob": 0.5401,
"pick_type": "no_value",
"probabilities": {
"away": 20.6,
"draw": 25.4,
"home": 54.0
},
"reason": "Model probability is not above market implied probability",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 1.67
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 1.67,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Chile W Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 1.84,
"market_odds": 1.67,
"model_odds": 1.85,
"overround": 10.3,
"prob_edge": -5.8,
"value_pct": -9.7,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 4,
"away_failed_to_score": 3,
"away_played": 6,
"away_score_rate": 66.0,
"home_clean_sheet": 3,
"home_failed_to_score": 3,
"home_played": 7,
"home_score_rate": 84.3,
"no_prob": 43.0,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 57.0,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 57.0
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.08,
"home_expected": 1.85,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 10.7
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.9
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.9
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 9.1
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 3,
"label": "3-1",
"prob": 6.1
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Chile W or Draw",
"prob": 79.4
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Chile W or Ecuador W",
"prob": 74.6
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Ecuador W",
"prob": 46.0
}
],
"pick_key": "1X",
"pick_label": "Chile W or Draw",
"pick_prob": 79.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 20.6,
"draw_pct": 25.4,
"home_pct": 54.0,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Chile W"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "-3.5",
"avg_total": 2.93,
"away_avg_scored": 1.0,
"confidence": "medium",
"home_avg_scored": 1.4,
"over_prob": 56.1,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 56.1,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.93,
"under_prob": 43.9
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": -9.7,
"implied_prob": 59.9,
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Chile W Win",
"model_prob": 54.1,
"odds": 1.67
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"has_data": false
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 10.7
}
},
"home_xg": 1.85,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0996,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 10.0,
"text": "+10.0%"
},
"ev_under": -0.1878,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -18.8,
"text": "-18.8%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0996,
"over_prob": 56.1,
"sort_key": 10239.64,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 43.9,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1787,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -17.9,
"text": "-17.9%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.0887,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 8.9,
"text": "+8.9%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0887,
"no_prob": 43.0,
"sort_key": 10079.83,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 57.0
},
{
"decision": "no_bet",
"ev": -0.0962,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -9.6,
"text": "-9.6%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.5428,
"max_ev": -0.0882,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -8.8,
"text": "-8.8%"
},
"model_prob": 0.5401,
"side_label": "Chile W",
"sort_key": 1777.95,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 812.1,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 10.7
}
],
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 1731,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1731.webp",
"away_team_name": "Ecuador W",
"country_code": null,
"country_flag": null,
"country_name": null,
"fixture_id": 1483043,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_country": "Chile",
"home_team_id": 1977,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1977.webp",
"home_team_name": "Chile W",
"league_country": "World",
"league_id": 1206,
"league_logo": null,
"league_name": "CONMEBOL Nations League Women",
"league_season": 2025,
"match_date": "2026-06-05 20:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 7.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1982,
"best_odd": 4.54,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0012,
"ev": -0.0882,
"implied_prob": 0.1997,
"model_prob": 0.2056,
"p_final": 0.2008
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2985,
"best_odd": 3.52,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.001,
"ev": -0.0969,
"implied_prob": 0.2575,
"model_prob": 0.2543,
"p_final": 0.2566
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.5976,
"best_odd": 1.67,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0016,
"ev": -0.0962,
"implied_prob": 0.5428,
"model_prob": 0.5401,
"p_final": 0.5412
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 1.91,
"best_yes_odd": 1.91,
"edge_no": -0.0739,
"edge_yes": 0.0739,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1787,
"ev_yes": 0.0887,
"implied_no": 0.5039,
"implied_yes": 0.4961,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 1.96,
"best_under_odd": 1.85,
"edge_over": 0.0726,
"edge_under": -0.0726,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0996,
"ev_under": -0.1878,
"implied_over": 0.4884,
"implied_under": 0.5116,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.93,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0996,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
"scoring_type": "high_scoring",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.57,
"draw_prob": 0.2543,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.5401,
"over_prob": 0.561,
"total_xg": 2.93,
"under_prob": 0.439,
"xg_diff": 0.77
},
"type": "high_scoring",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0016,
"ev": -0.0962,
"implied_prob": 0.5428,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.5401,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Chile W"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0739,
"ev": 0.0887,
"implied_prob": 0.4961,
"model_prob": 0.57,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0726,
"ev": 0.0996,
"implied_prob": 0.4884,
"model_prob": 0.561,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1483043,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0996,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.2056,
"draw": 0.2543,
"home": 0.5401
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0887,
"implied_prob": 0.4961,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.57,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0887,
"implied_prob": 0.4961,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.57,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Ecuador W",
"home": "Chile W"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.069845,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0996,
"implied_prob": 0.4884,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.561,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2
}
},
"fixture_id": 1483043,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-06-05T19:59:08.201779+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
How to use this
- Focus on the Primary line when you want one actionable idea.
- Do not parlay many thin-edge picks together; edges do not add reliably.
- Treat longshots as optional, high-stake-sizing plays only.
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