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Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the model’s highlighted side (or lean) to what happened at full time.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (8 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Bolivia W Paraguay W ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-0, 2-0, 1-2 0-8 ✖ Incorrect
AI briefing is not available yet for this match. Run “Batch generate odds” again after upgrading the server to generate the summary.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "a3ce4115c46c57a6c563c9204f4685a64d74359c9658b4d94de2f87b81fab2d9",
"decision_algo_version": "2.2.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.18,
"away_win_prob": 0.2429,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.413,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.587,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2641,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 4.12,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.79,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.03,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.75,
"home_win_prob": 0.493,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.561,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.439
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Paraguay W",
"main_pick_display": "Winner : Bolivia W",
"percent_away": "50%",
"percent_draw": "50%",
"percent_home": "0%",
"winner_name": "Paraguay W"
},
"away_xg": 1.18,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Bolivia W",
"confidence": 49.3,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "Winner : Bolivia W",
"edge": 0.4543,
"edge_gap": 0.2289,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.0387,
"model_prob": 0.493,
"pick_type": "winner",
"probabilities": {
"away": 24.3,
"draw": 26.4,
"home": 49.3
},
"reason": "",
"selection": "home",
"selection_name": "Bolivia W"
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 24.03
}
],
"risk_color": "#f44336",
"risk_key": "high_risk",
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 24.03,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Bolivia W Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 25.86,
"market_odds": 24.03,
"model_odds": 2.03,
"overround": 7.6,
"prob_edge": 45.1,
"value_pct": 1083.7,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 2,
"away_failed_to_score": 1,
"away_played": 6,
"away_score_rate": 69.3,
"home_clean_sheet": 0,
"home_failed_to_score": 4,
"home_played": 6,
"home_score_rate": 82.6,
"no_prob": 41.3,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 58.7,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 58.7
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.18,
"home_expected": 1.75,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 11.0
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.6
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.3
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 8.2
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 6.5
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Bolivia W or Draw",
"prob": 75.7
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Bolivia W or Paraguay W",
"prob": 73.6
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Paraguay W",
"prob": 50.7
}
],
"pick_key": "1X",
"pick_label": "Bolivia W or Draw",
"pick_prob": 75.7
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 24.3,
"draw_pct": 26.4,
"home_pct": 49.3,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Bolivia W"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.93,
"away_avg_scored": 1.0,
"confidence": "medium",
"home_avg_scored": 0.3,
"over_prob": 56.1,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 56.1,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.93,
"under_prob": 43.9
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 1084.7,
"implied_prob": 4.2,
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Bolivia W Win",
"model_prob": 49.3,
"odds": 24.03
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"has_data": false
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 11.0
}
},
"home_xg": 1.75,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.3773,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -37.7,
"text": "-37.7%"
},
"ev_under": 2.073,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 207.3,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 2.073,
"over_prob": 56.1,
"sort_key": 12015.7,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 43.9,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 1.0209,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 102.1,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.0387,
"max_ev": 1.0209,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 102.1,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"model_prob": 0.493,
"side_label": "Bolivia W",
"sort_key": 10918.81,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2979,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -29.8,
"text": "-29.8%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.4088,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 40.9,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.4088,
"no_prob": 41.3,
"sort_key": 10367.92,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 58.7
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 813.0,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 11.0
}
],
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 16941,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/16941.webp",
"away_team_name": "Paraguay W",
"country_code": null,
"country_flag": null,
"country_name": null,
"fixture_id": 1483042,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_country": "Bolivia",
"home_team_id": 16924,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/16924.webp",
"home_team_name": "Bolivia W",
"league_country": "World",
"league_id": 1206,
"league_logo": null,
"league_name": "CONMEBOL Nations League Women",
"league_season": 2025,
"match_date": "2026-06-05 20:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.3,
"best_odd": 1.03,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.1977,
"ev": -0.2745,
"implied_prob": 0.9021,
"model_prob": 0.2429,
"p_final": 0.7043
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1386,
"best_odd": 15.68,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0284,
"ev": 0.3741,
"implied_prob": 0.0593,
"model_prob": 0.2641,
"p_final": 0.0876
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.1,
"best_odd": 24.03,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0454,
"ev": 1.0209,
"implied_prob": 0.0387,
"model_prob": 0.493,
"p_final": 0.0841
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 1.7,
"best_yes_odd": 2.4,
"edge_no": -0.1761,
"edge_yes": 0.1761,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2979,
"ev_yes": 0.4088,
"implied_no": 0.5891,
"implied_yes": 0.4109,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 1.11,
"best_under_odd": 7.0,
"edge_over": -0.2892,
"edge_under": 0.2892,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.3773,
"ev_under": 2.073,
"implied_over": 0.8502,
"implied_under": 0.1498,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.93,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 2.073,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
"scoring_type": "high_scoring",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.587,
"draw_prob": 0.2641,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.493,
"over_prob": 0.561,
"total_xg": 2.93,
"under_prob": 0.439,
"xg_diff": 0.57
},
"type": "high_scoring",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3741,
"implied_prob": 0.0593,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.2641,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "speculative",
"risk_tier": "longshot",
"side": "draw",
"side_label": "draw",
"slot": "longshot"
}
],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0454,
"ev": 1.0209,
"implied_prob": 0.0387,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.493,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Bolivia W"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.1761,
"ev": 0.4088,
"implied_prob": 0.4109,
"model_prob": 0.587,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.2892,
"ev": 2.073,
"implied_prob": 0.1498,
"model_prob": 0.439,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1483042,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 2.073,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.2429,
"draw": 0.2641,
"home": 0.493
},
"reason_codes": [
"high_total_goals",
"longshot_high_variance"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 1.0209,
"implied_prob": 0.0387,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.493,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Bolivia W",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 1.0209,
"implied_prob": 0.0387,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.493,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Bolivia W",
"slot": "secondary"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.4088,
"implied_prob": 0.4109,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.587,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Paraguay W",
"home": "Bolivia W"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.864545,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 2.073,
"implied_prob": 0.1498,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.439,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 4
}
},
"fixture_id": 1483042,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-06-05T19:59:06.752680+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
How to use this
- Focus on the Primary line when you want one actionable idea.
- Do not parlay many thin-edge picks together; edges do not add reliably.
- Treat longshots as optional, high-stake-sizing plays only.
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