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Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the model’s highlighted side (or lean) to what happened at full time.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Górnik Zabrze U19 Górnik Zabrze U19 ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-2, 1-1, 2-2, 2-1, 1-3 4-2 ✖ Incorrect
AI briefing is not available yet for this match. Run “Batch generate odds” again after upgrading the server to generate the summary.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "3d4dec8258e6ff9fb01f3c55fb3b028baee304aaec9424c08a4c681c9061f7db",
"decision_algo_version": "2.2.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.25,
"away_win_prob": null,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.438,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.562,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": null,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": null,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": null,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": null,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.45,
"home_win_prob": null,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.506,
"prediction_confidence": "none",
"under_25_prob": 0.494
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : G\u00f3rnik Zabrze U19 or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "G\u00f3rnik Zabrze U19"
},
"away_xg": 1.25,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "G\u00f3rnik Zabrze U19",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.0177,
"edge_gap": 0.092,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4,
"model_prob": 0.4177,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 32.6,
"draw": 25.7,
"home": 41.8
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": null
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 4,
"away_failed_to_score": 4,
"away_played": 29,
"away_score_rate": 86.2,
"home_clean_sheet": 7,
"home_failed_to_score": 3,
"home_played": 29,
"home_score_rate": 89.7,
"no_prob": 22.7,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 77.3,
"source": "stats",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 77.3
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 2.05,
"home_expected": 1.9,
"scores": [
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.7
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 7.5
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-2",
"prob": 7.3
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.1
},
{
"away": 3,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-3",
"prob": 5.3
}
],
"source": "avg"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "G\u00f3rnik Zabrze U19 or Draw",
"prob": 90.0
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "G\u00f3rnik Zabrze U19 or Lech Pozna\u0144 U19",
"prob": 55.0
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Lech Pozna\u0144 U19",
"prob": 55.0
}
],
"pick_key": "1X",
"pick_label": "G\u00f3rnik Zabrze U19 or Draw",
"pick_prob": 90.0
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 10.0,
"draw_pct": 45.0,
"home_pct": 45.0,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "G\u00f3rnik Zabrze U19"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 3.95,
"away_avg_scored": 2.5,
"confidence": "high",
"home_avg_scored": 2.2,
"over_prob": 75.4,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 75.4,
"source": "avg",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 3.95,
"under_prob": 24.6
},
"prob_source": null,
"value_bet_enhanced": null
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Lech Pozna\u0144 U19",
"closing_bookmaker": "Bet365",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"early_bookmaker": "Bet365",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "G\u00f3rnik Zabrze U19",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 40.0,
"gap_pp": 1.77,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 41.77
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 24.0,
"gap_pp": 1.67,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 25.67
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 36.0,
"gap_pp": -3.43,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 32.57
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 64.53,
"gap_pp": 10.87,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 75.4
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 35.47,
"gap_pp": -10.87,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 24.6
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.25,
"early": 2.25,
"implied_closing_pct": 40.0,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 40.0,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.75,
"early": 3.75,
"implied_closing_pct": 24.0,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 24.0,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.5,
"early": 2.5,
"implied_closing_pct": 36.0,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 36.0,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.44,
"early": 1.44,
"implied_closing_pct": 64.53,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 64.53,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.62,
"early": 2.62,
"implied_closing_pct": 35.47,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 35.47,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 10.9,
"kind": "ou_o"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.7
}
},
"home_xg": 1.45,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.3576,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -35.8,
"text": "-35.8%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.0977,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 9.8,
"text": "+9.8%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0977,
"no_prob": 22.7,
"sort_key": 10237.93,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 77.3
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0858,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 8.6,
"text": "+8.6%"
},
"ev_under": -0.3358,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -33.6,
"text": "-33.6%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0858,
"over_prob": 75.4,
"sort_key": 10077.22,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 24.6,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "no_bet",
"ev": -0.0826,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -8.3,
"text": "-8.3%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4,
"max_ev": -0.0817,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -8.2,
"text": "-8.2%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4177,
"side_label": "G\u00f3rnik Zabrze U19",
"sort_key": 1779.575,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 803.1,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-2",
"top_prob": 7.7
}
],
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 7958,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/7958.webp",
"away_team_name": "Lech Pozna\u0144 U19",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/pl.svg",
"country_name": "Poland",
"fixture_id": 1481994,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_country": "Poland",
"home_team_id": 16391,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/16391.webp",
"home_team_name": "G\u00f3rnik Zabrze U19",
"league_country": "Poland",
"league_id": 676,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/676.webp",
"league_name": "Central Youth League",
"league_season": 2025,
"match_date": "2026-05-30 10:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4268,
"best_odd": 2.5,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0147,
"ev": -0.1367,
"implied_prob": 0.36,
"model_prob": 0.3257,
"p_final": 0.3453
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2925,
"best_odd": 3.75,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0049,
"ev": -0.0817,
"implied_prob": 0.24,
"model_prob": 0.2567,
"p_final": 0.2449
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4381,
"best_odd": 2.25,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0077,
"ev": -0.0826,
"implied_prob": 0.4,
"model_prob": 0.4177,
"p_final": 0.4077
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 2.83,
"best_yes_odd": 1.42,
"edge_no": -0.1055,
"edge_yes": 0.1055,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.3576,
"ev_yes": 0.0977,
"implied_no": 0.3325,
"implied_yes": 0.6675,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 1.44,
"best_under_odd": 2.7,
"edge_over": 0.1012,
"edge_under": -0.1012,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0858,
"ev_under": -0.3358,
"implied_over": 0.6528,
"implied_under": 0.3472,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.7,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0977,
"confidence": 5.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 5.5
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
"scoring_type": "neutral",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.773,
"draw_prob": 0.2567,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4177,
"over_prob": 0.754,
"total_xg": 2.7,
"under_prob": 0.246,
"xg_diff": 0.2
},
"type": "neutral",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0077,
"ev": -0.0826,
"implied_prob": 0.4,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.4177,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "G\u00f3rnik Zabrze U19"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.1055,
"ev": 0.0977,
"implied_prob": 0.6675,
"model_prob": 0.773,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.1012,
"ev": 0.0858,
"implied_prob": 0.6528,
"model_prob": 0.754,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1481994,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0977,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3257,
"draw": 0.2567,
"home": 0.4177
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Lech Pozna\u0144 U19",
"home": "G\u00f3rnik Zabrze U19"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.075522,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0977,
"implied_prob": 0.6675,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.773,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2
}
},
"fixture_id": 1481994,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-05-30T18:13:49.952966+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
How to use this
- Focus on the Primary line when you want one actionable idea.
- Do not parlay many thin-edge picks together; edges do not add reliably.
- Treat longshots as optional, high-stake-sizing plays only.
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Central Youth League — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Legia Warszawa U19 | 30 | 21 | 4 | 5 | 67 |
| 2 | Górnik Zabrze U19 | 30 | 18 | 5 | 7 | 59 |
| 3 | Lech Poznań U19 | 30 | 17 | 6 | 7 | 57 |
| 4 | Miedź Legnica U19 | 30 | 16 | 6 | 8 | 54 |
| 5 | Polonia Warszawa U19 | 30 | 15 | 6 | 9 | 51 |
| 6 | Zagłębie Lubin U19 | 30 | 16 | 3 | 11 | 51 |
| 7 | Escola Varsovia U19 | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | 48 |
| 8 | Śląsk Wrocław U19 | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 42 |
| 9 | Wisła Kraków U19 | 30 | 13 | 2 | 15 | 41 |
| 10 | Stal Rzeszów U19 | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | 39 |
| 11 | Jagiellonia U19 | 30 | 11 | 4 | 15 | 37 |
| 12 | Arkonia U19 | 30 | 9 | 7 | 14 | 34 |
| 13 | Znicz Pruszków U19 | 30 | 9 | 5 | 16 | 32 |
| 14 | Lechia Gdańsk U19 | 30 | 7 | 4 | 19 | 25 |
| 15 | Resovia U19 | 30 | 5 | 9 | 16 | 24 |
| 16 | Odra Opole U19 | 30 | 5 | 2 | 23 | 17 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Legia Warszawa U19 | 30 | 86 | 39 | +47 | 67 |
| 2 | Lech Poznań U19 | 30 | 74 | 51 | +23 | 57 |
| 3 | Górnik Zabrze U19 | 30 | 68 | 47 | +21 | 59 |
| 4 | Escola Varsovia U19 | 30 | 66 | 61 | +5 | 48 |
| 5 | Jagiellonia U19 | 30 | 62 | 62 | 0 | 37 |
| 6 | Miedź Legnica U19 | 30 | 61 | 43 | +18 | 54 |
| 7 | Zagłębie Lubin U19 | 30 | 55 | 48 | +7 | 51 |
| 8 | Śląsk Wrocław U19 | 30 | 55 | 54 | +1 | 42 |
| 9 | Polonia Warszawa U19 | 30 | 54 | 37 | +17 | 51 |
| 10 | Wisła Kraków U19 | 30 | 52 | 58 | -6 | 41 |
| 11 | Lechia Gdańsk U19 | 30 | 50 | 68 | -18 | 25 |
| 12 | Stal Rzeszów U19 | 30 | 40 | 45 | -5 | 39 |
| 13 | Arkonia U19 | 30 | 40 | 50 | -10 | 34 |
| 14 | Znicz Pruszków U19 | 30 | 34 | 48 | -14 | 32 |
| 15 | Odra Opole U19 | 30 | 31 | 84 | -53 | 17 |
| 16 | Resovia U19 | 30 | 27 | 60 | -33 | 24 |