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Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the model’s highlighted side (or lean) to what happened at full time.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Zaqatala Zaqatala ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 0-1, 0-2, 1-1, 1-2, 0-3 2-1 ✖ Incorrect
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View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "ede41e10ddf3cd74371d53ed77dd1281a0a53e40c73e8f5b194d877b24b92705",
"decision_algo_version": "2.1.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.25,
"away_win_prob": null,
"btts_no_prob": 0.438,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.562,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": null,
"fair_odds_away": null,
"fair_odds_draw": null,
"fair_odds_home": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.45,
"home_win_prob": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.506,
"prediction_confidence": "none",
"under_25_prob": 0.494
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Safa Baku",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "50%",
"percent_draw": "50%",
"percent_home": "0%",
"winner_name": "Safa Baku"
},
"away_xg": 1.25,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Zaqatala",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.3475,
"edge_gap": 0.092,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.0701,
"model_prob": 0.4177,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 32.6,
"draw": 25.7,
"home": 41.8
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": null
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 14,
"away_failed_to_score": 4,
"away_played": 26,
"away_score_rate": 84.6,
"home_clean_sheet": 7,
"home_failed_to_score": 10,
"home_played": 26,
"home_score_rate": 61.5,
"no_prob": 47.9,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 52.1,
"source": "stats",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 52.1
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.85,
"home_expected": 0.85,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 12.4
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-2",
"prob": 11.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 10.6
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 9.8
},
{
"away": 3,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-3",
"prob": 7.1
}
],
"source": "avg"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Zaqatala or Draw",
"prob": 50.0
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Zaqatala or Safa Baku",
"prob": 50.0
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Safa Baku",
"prob": 100.0
}
],
"pick_key": "X2",
"pick_label": "Draw or Safa Baku",
"pick_prob": 100.0
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 50.0,
"draw_pct": 50.0,
"home_pct": 0.0,
"lean_key": "draw",
"lean_label": "Draw"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.7,
"away_avg_scored": 2.0,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.0,
"over_prob": 50.6,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 50.6,
"source": "avg",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.7,
"under_prob": 49.4
},
"prob_source": null,
"value_bet_enhanced": null
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Safa Baku",
"closing_bookmaker": "Bet365",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"early_bookmaker": "Bet365",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Zaqatala",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 7.01,
"gap_pp": 34.75,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 41.77
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 13.02,
"gap_pp": 12.65,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 25.67
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 79.96,
"gap_pp": -47.4,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 32.57
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 53.95,
"gap_pp": -3.35,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 50.6
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 46.05,
"gap_pp": 3.35,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 49.4
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 13.0,
"early": 13.0,
"implied_closing_pct": 7.01,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 7.01,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 7.0,
"early": 7.0,
"implied_closing_pct": 13.02,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 13.02,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 1.14,
"early": 1.14,
"implied_closing_pct": 79.96,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 79.96,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.75,
"early": 1.75,
"implied_closing_pct": 53.95,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 53.95,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.05,
"early": 2.05,
"implied_closing_pct": 46.05,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 46.05,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 34.8,
"kind": "1x2_h"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"most_likely": {
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 12.4
}
},
"home_xg": 1.45,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3634,
"ev_available": true,
"featured": true,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.0701,
"max_ev": 0.3634,
"model_prob": 0.4177,
"side_label": "Zaqatala",
"sort_key": 10477.06,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1145,
"ev_under": 0.0374,
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0374,
"over_prob": 50.6,
"sort_key": 10033.66,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 49.4,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0899,
"ev_yes": -0.0257,
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": -0.0257,
"no_prob": 47.9,
"sort_key": 1793.575,
"tier": "bad_ev",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 52.1
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.2,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "0-1",
"top_prob": 12.4
}
],
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 25318,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/25318.webp",
"away_team_name": "Safa Baku",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/az.svg",
"country_name": "Azerbaijan",
"fixture_id": 1466981,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_id": 5500,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/5500.webp",
"home_team_name": "Zaqatala",
"league_country": "Azerbaijan",
"league_id": 418,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/418.webp",
"league_name": "Birinci Dasta",
"league_season": 2025,
"match_date": "2026-05-22 11:30:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.3,
"best_odd": 1.14,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.1422,
"ev": -0.2505,
"implied_prob": 0.7996,
"model_prob": 0.3257,
"p_final": 0.6574
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1621,
"best_odd": 7.0,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0205,
"ev": 0.0551,
"implied_prob": 0.1302,
"model_prob": 0.2567,
"p_final": 0.1507
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.1,
"best_odd": 13.0,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0348,
"ev": 0.3634,
"implied_prob": 0.0701,
"model_prob": 0.4177,
"p_final": 0.1049
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 1.9,
"best_yes_odd": 1.87,
"edge_no": -0.021,
"edge_yes": 0.021,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0899,
"ev_yes": -0.0257,
"implied_no": 0.5,
"implied_yes": 0.5,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 1.75,
"best_under_odd": 2.1,
"edge_over": -0.0397,
"edge_under": 0.0397,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1145,
"ev_under": 0.0374,
"implied_over": 0.5457,
"implied_under": 0.4543,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.7,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-04-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.1.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.3634,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "B",
"stake_factor": 0.5
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
"scoring_type": "neutral",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.521,
"draw_prob": 0.2567,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4177,
"over_prob": 0.506,
"total_xg": 2.7,
"under_prob": 0.494,
"xg_diff": 0.2
},
"type": "neutral",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0551,
"implied_prob": 0.1302,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.2567,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "speculative",
"risk_tier": "longshot",
"side": "draw",
"side_label": "draw",
"slot": "longshot"
}
],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0348,
"ev": 0.3634,
"implied_prob": 0.0701,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.4177,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Zaqatala"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"edge": 0.021,
"ev": -0.0257,
"implied_prob": 0.5,
"model_prob": 0.521,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0397,
"ev": 0.0374,
"implied_prob": 0.4543,
"model_prob": 0.494,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1466981,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.3634,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3257,
"draw": 0.2567,
"home": 0.4177
},
"reason_codes": [
"high_total_goals",
"longshot_high_variance"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Safa Baku",
"home": "Zaqatala"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.151792,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3634,
"implied_prob": 0.0701,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.4177,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Zaqatala",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3
}
},
"fixture_id": 1466981,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-05-22T18:17:14.379034+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
How to use this
- Focus on the Primary line when you want one actionable idea.
- Do not parlay many thin-edge picks together; edges do not add reliably.
- Treat longshots as optional, high-stake-sizing plays only.
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Birinci Dasta — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Safa Baku | 26 | 16 | 9 | 1 | 57 |
| 2 | Səbail | 26 | 14 | 8 | 4 | 50 |
| 3 | Mingəçevir | 26 | 14 | 6 | 6 | 48 |
| 4 | Baku Sportinq | 26 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 48 |
| 5 | Şahdağ | 26 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 42 |
| 6 | MOIK | 27 | 9 | 6 | 12 | 33 |
| 7 | Zaqatala | 26 | 7 | 4 | 15 | 25 |
| 8 | Cəbrayıl | 27 | 7 | 3 | 17 | 24 |
| 9 | Şimal | 27 | 5 | 5 | 17 | 20 |
| 10 | Difai Ağsu | 27 | 4 | 6 | 17 | 18 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Safa Baku | 26 | 51 | 19 | +32 | 57 |
| 2 | Mingəçevir | 26 | 51 | 26 | +25 | 48 |
| 3 | Səbail | 26 | 45 | 17 | +28 | 50 |
| 4 | Cəbrayıl | 27 | 40 | 56 | -16 | 24 |
| 5 | Baku Sportinq | 26 | 39 | 22 | +17 | 48 |
| 6 | Şahdağ | 26 | 35 | 26 | +9 | 42 |
| 7 | MOIK | 27 | 33 | 40 | -7 | 33 |
| 8 | Difai Ağsu | 27 | 28 | 60 | -32 | 18 |
| 9 | Zaqatala | 26 | 25 | 43 | -18 | 25 |
| 10 | Şimal | 27 | 23 | 61 | -38 | 20 |
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