Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ahli Jeddah Statistics & Analysis

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  "content_hash": "91430b1dd47643dcaf3351a6dc23a7bc8b21884d8efd553276ee53dc2d29376b",
  "decision_algo_version": "2.1.0",
  "facts": {
    "ai_fp": {
      "away_predicted_xg": 1.57,
      "away_win_prob": 0.5409,
      "btts_no_prob": 0.549,
      "btts_yes_prob": 0.451,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
      "draw_prob": 0.2839,
      "fair_odds_away": 1.85,
      "fair_odds_draw": 3.52,
      "fair_odds_home": 5.71,
      "home_predicted_xg": 0.8,
      "home_win_prob": 0.1752,
      "over_25_prob": 0.422,
      "prediction_confidence": "high",
      "under_25_prob": 0.578
    },
    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "Double chance : draw or Al-Ahli Jeddah",
      "main_pick_display": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
      "percent_away": "50%",
      "percent_draw": "50%",
      "percent_home": "0%",
      "winner_name": "Al-Ahli Jeddah"
    },
    "away_xg": 1.57,
    "betting_insight": {
      "bet_label": "Al-Ahli Jeddah",
      "confidence": null,
      "main_pick_meta": {
        "confidence": "low",
        "display_text": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
        "edge": -0.0696,
        "edge_gap": 0.2565,
        "market": "1X2",
        "market_prob": 0.6103,
        "model_prob": 0.5407,
        "pick_type": "no_value",
        "probabilities": {
          "away": 54.1,
          "draw": 28.4,
          "home": 17.5
        },
        "reason": "Model probability is not above market implied probability",
        "selection": null,
        "selection_name": null
      },
      "market_comparison": [
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
          "odd": 1.55
        }
      ],
      "risk_color": null,
      "risk_key": null,
      "stacked_market": null,
      "value_bet": {
        "best_odds": 1.55,
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "display_market": "Al-Ahli Jeddah Win",
        "is_value": false,
        "label": "Away",
        "market_fair_odds": 1.64,
        "market_odds": 1.55,
        "model_odds": 1.85,
        "overround": 5.7,
        "prob_edge": -10.5,
        "value_pct": -16.2,
        "value_rating": "no_value"
      }
    },
    "betting_markets": {
      "btts": {
        "away_clean_sheet": 17,
        "away_failed_to_score": 3,
        "away_played": 33,
        "away_score_rate": 79.2,
        "home_clean_sheet": 4,
        "home_failed_to_score": 9,
        "home_played": 33,
        "home_score_rate": 55.1,
        "no_prob": 54.9,
        "pick": "No",
        "pick_prob": 54.9,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "yes_prob": 45.1
      },
      "correct_score": {
        "away_expected": 1.57,
        "home_expected": 0.8,
        "scores": [
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 0,
            "label": "0-1",
            "prob": 14.7
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-1",
            "prob": 11.7
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          {
            "away": 2,
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            "label": "0-2",
            "prob": 11.5
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          {
            "away": 0,
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            "label": "0-0",
            "prob": 9.3
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          {
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        ],
        "source": "xG"
      },
      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
          {
            "key": "1X",
            "label": "Al Khaleej Saihat or Draw",
            "prob": 45.9
          },
          {
            "key": "12",
            "label": "Al Khaleej Saihat or Al-Ahli Jeddah",
            "prob": 71.6
          },
          {
            "key": "X2",
            "label": "Draw or Al-Ahli Jeddah",
            "prob": 82.5
          }
        ],
        "pick_key": "X2",
        "pick_label": "Draw or Al-Ahli Jeddah",
        "pick_prob": 82.5
      },
      "match_winner": {
        "away_pct": 54.1,
        "draw_pct": 28.4,
        "home_pct": 17.5,
        "lean_key": "away",
        "lean_label": "Al-Ahli Jeddah"
      },
      "over_under": {
        "api_hint": null,
        "avg_total": 2.37,
        "away_avg_scored": 2.0,
        "confidence": "medium",
        "home_avg_scored": 1.6,
        "over_prob": 42.2,
        "pick": "Under 2.5",
        "pick_prob": 57.8,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "total_expected": 2.37,
        "under_prob": 57.8
      },
      "prob_source": "poisson",
      "value_bet_enhanced": {
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        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "edge": 29.5,
        "implied_prob": 21.9,
        "is_value": true,
        "label": "Draw",
        "market": "Draw",
        "model_prob": 28.4,
        "odds": 4.56
      }
    },
    "closing_line_bundle": {
      "away_team": "Al-Ahli Jeddah",
      "closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "closing_capture": "PRE1",
      "early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "early_capture": "PRE30",
      "has_data": true,
      "home_team": "Al Khaleej Saihat",
      "largest_move_kind": null,
      "max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
      "model_vs_closing": [
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          "closing_implied_pct": 18.23,
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          "kind": "1x2_h",
          "model_pct": 17.52
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 20.74,
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          "kind": "1x2_d",
          "model_pct": 28.42
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 61.03,
          "gap_pp": -6.96,
          "kind": "1x2_a",
          "model_pct": 54.07
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 63.99,
          "gap_pp": -21.79,
          "kind": "ou_o",
          "model_pct": 42.2
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 36.01,
          "gap_pp": 21.79,
          "kind": "ou_u",
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      "movement": [
        {
          "closing": 5.19,
          "early": 5.19,
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          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
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          "kind": "1x2_h"
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        {
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          "kind": "1x2_d"
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        {
          "closing": 1.55,
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          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
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          "kind": "1x2_a"
        },
        {
          "closing": 1.48,
          "early": 1.48,
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          "kind": "ou_o"
        },
        {
          "closing": 2.63,
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          "kind": "ou_u"
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      "movement_negligible": true,
      "same_bookmaker": true,
      "top_value_gap": {
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    },
    "correct_score_insight": {
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      "most_likely": {
        "label": "0-1",
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    "home_xg": 0.8,
    "homepage_pick": {
      "best_bookmaker": "Unibet",
      "best_odds": 1.5,
      "confidence": "moderate",
      "display_label": "Away Al-Ahli Jeddah",
      "edge": -12.6,
      "ev": -17.1,
      "probability": 54.1
    },
    "market_cards": [
      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_over": -0.3543,
        "ev_under": 0.5433,
        "featured": true,
        "id": "ou_2_5",
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        "over_prob": 42.2,
        "sort_key": 10638.97,
        "tier": "best",
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        "value_side": "under"
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        "tier": "best",
        "value_side": "no",
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      },
      {
        "decision": "no_bet",
        "ev": -0.112,
        "ev_available": true,
        "featured": false,
        "id": "1x2",
        "implied_prob": 0.6103,
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        "side_label": "Al-Ahli Jeddah",
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        "tier": "lean"
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      {
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    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 2929,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/2929.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Al-Ahli Jeddah",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/sa.svg",
      "country_name": "Saudi-Arabia",
      "fixture_id": 1436212,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_id": 2928,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/2928.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Al Khaleej Saihat",
      "league_country": "Saudi-Arabia",
      "league_id": 307,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/307.webp",
      "league_name": "Pro League",
      "league_season": 2025,
      "match_date": "2026-05-21 17:00:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS"
    },
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          "pred_conf_md_xg_borderline"
        ],
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          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
          "Total xG in borderline band (high variance) (\u22121.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.0
      },
      "markets": {
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            "calibration": {
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              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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            "ev": -0.112,
            "implied_prob": 0.6103,
            "model_prob": 0.5407,
            "p_final": 0.5729
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          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.177,
            "best_odd": 4.56,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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            "ev": 0.0079,
            "implied_prob": 0.2074,
            "model_prob": 0.2842,
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          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.1979,
            "best_odd": 5.19,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0014,
            "ev": -0.0613,
            "implied_prob": 0.1823,
            "model_prob": 0.1752,
            "p_final": 0.1809
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        },
        "btts": {
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          "best_yes_odd": 1.67,
          "edge_no": 0.1435,
          "edge_yes": -0.1435,
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          "ev_no": 0.3176,
          "ev_yes": -0.2468,
          "implied_no": 0.4055,
          "implied_yes": 0.5945,
          "n_bookmakers": 11,
          "reliability": "medium"
        },
        "ou25": {
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          "best_under_odd": 2.67,
          "edge_over": -0.2107,
          "edge_under": 0.2107,
          "ev_available": true,
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          "ev_under": 0.5433,
          "implied_over": 0.6327,
          "implied_under": 0.3673,
          "n_bookmakers": 11,
          "reliability": "medium"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 2.37,
      "variance_flag": true
    },
    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-04-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.1.0"
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      "best_tracked_ev": 0.5433,
      "confidence": 7.5,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
          "pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
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          "Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
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        "1x2_open_contest": false,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
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        "gap": null,
        "side": null
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      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
        "scoring_type": "neutral",
        "signals": {
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          "draw_prob": 0.2842,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.5407,
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          "total_xg": 2.37,
          "under_prob": 0.578,
          "xg_diff": 0.77
        },
        "type": "neutral",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
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      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "longshot_picks": [],
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          "implied_prob": 0.6103,
          "max_ev_side": "draw",
          "model_prob": 0.5407,
          "side": "away",
          "side_label": "Al-Ahli Jeddah"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.1435,
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          "implied_prob": 0.4055,
          "model_prob": 0.549,
          "side": "no",
          "value_side": "no"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
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          "implied_prob": 0.3673,
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          "side": "under",
          "value_side": "under"
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      },
      "match_id": 1436212,
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        "action": "bet",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": true,
        "code": "clear_edge",
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        "insight_line_key": null,
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        "stake_mult": 1.0,
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        "away": 0.5407,
        "draw": 0.2842,
        "home": 0.1752
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        "variance_medium"
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      "secondary_pick": {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.3176,
        "implied_prob": 0.4055,
        "market": "btts",
        "model_prob": 0.549,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "secondary",
        "side": "no",
        "slot": "secondary"
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      "secondary_picks": [
        {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "ev": 0.3176,
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          "market": "btts",
          "model_prob": 0.549,
          "not_dominant": false,
          "risk_band": "strong",
          "risk_tier": "secondary",
          "side": "no",
          "slot": "secondary"
        }
      ],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Al-Ahli Jeddah",
        "home": "Al Khaleej Saihat"
      },
      "top_pick": {
        "composite_score": 0.276344,
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.5433,
        "implied_prob": 0.3673,
        "market": "ou_2_5",
        "model_prob": 0.578,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "under",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
      },
      "valid_markets_count": 2
    }
  },
  "fixture_id": 1436212,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-05-21T18:16:54.333875+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}