Statistik / Bola Sepak / Arab Saudi. Liga Pro Arab Saudi / Al-Ettifaq vs Al Najma

Al-Ettifaq vs Al Najma Statistics & Analysis

Al-Ettifaq Al-Ettifaq
May 04, 2026 - 18:00
0 1.96
0 1.20
xG Accuracy: 42%
Al Najma Al Najma
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Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa

Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.

  • Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
  • Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Tidak ✖ tak betul
  • 1X2 Al-Ettifaq Lukis ✖ tak betul
  • Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 2-1, 1-0, 2-0, 3-1 0-0 ✖ tak betul

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 02, 2026 · 16:26 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2886901

Closing Odds 1.48
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Al-Ettifaq 0–0 Al Najma
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): +37.5%

Intelijen pasaran

Bacaan selepas pilihan utama: bagaimana suapan penutup berprioriti bergerak berbanding model.

Ringkasan pasaran

Pasaran kekal stabil menjelang sepakan. Tiada anjakan implied ketara antara PRE30 dan PRE1 pada snapshot berprioriti.

Walaupun pergerakan lewat kecil, model masih menilai Lukis (1X2),Al Najma (1X2),Bawah 2.5 gol jauh melebihi implied snapshot penutupan — bacaan statik "model vs harga", bukan kejaran steam.

Model masih melebihi implied penutupan pada Al Najma (1X2) kira-kira 5.3 mata peratus — isyarat salah harga paling jelas pada halaman ini.

Model vs implied penutup

Pasaran Model % Implied penutup % Jurang (pp)
Al-Ettifaq (1X2) 53.8 63.8 -10.1
Lukis (1X2) 24.4 19.6 +4.8
Al Najma (1X2) 21.8 16.5 +5.3
Lebih 2.5 gol 61.2 63.8 -2.5
Bawah 2.5 gol 38.8 36.2 +2.5
Apa maksudnya

Secara ringkas: model kira-kira 21.8% pada Al Najma (1X2), manakala snapshot penutup menunjukkan kira-kira 16.5%. Bezanya — kira-kira 5.3 mata peratus — ialah jurang model-vs-pasaran terbesar yang ditonjolkan di halaman ini.

Ringkas: "implied penutup" ialah kebarangkalian terbit daripada odds akhir yang ditangkap (selepas de-vig ringkas). "Jurang (pp)" = peratus model tolak implied tersebut, dalam mata peratus (pp).

Pergerakan garisan menjelang sepakan mula

Satu buku prioriti setiap snapshot (bukan semua). Laluan tangkapan: PRE30 → PRE1 · Buku: Pinnacle

Dalam kurungan pada lajur: Penutup = snapshot pertama tersedia ikut PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Awal = pertama dalam PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 yang berbeza daripada Penutup.

Odds terperinci dilipat di bawah — pergerakan implied (de-vig) boleh diabaikan.

Lihat jadual penuh baris demi baris
Pasaran Awal (PRE30) Penutup (PRE1) Δ tersirat (pp)
Al-Ettifaq (1X2) 1.48 1.48 0.0
Lukis (1X2) 4.81 4.81 0.0
Al Najma (1X2) 5.72 5.72 0.0
Lebih 2.5 gol 1.49 1.49 0.0
Bawah 2.5 gol 2.62 2.62 0.0

Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.

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  "facts": {
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      "away_win_prob": 0.2179,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
      "draw_prob": 0.2446,
      "fair_odds_away": 4.59,
      "fair_odds_draw": 4.09,
      "fair_odds_home": 1.86,
      "home_predicted_xg": 1.96,
      "home_win_prob": 0.5375,
      "prediction_confidence": "high"
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    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "Double chance : Al-Ettifaq or draw",
      "main_pick_display": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
      "percent_away": "10%",
      "percent_draw": "45%",
      "percent_home": "45%",
      "winner_name": "Al-Ettifaq"
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    "away_xg": 1.2,
    "betting_insight": {
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      "confidence": null,
      "main_pick_meta": {
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        "edge": -0.1008,
        "edge_gap": 0.2931,
        "market": "1X2",
        "market_prob": 0.6384,
        "model_prob": 0.5376,
        "pick_type": "no_value",
        "probabilities": {
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          "draw": 24.4,
          "home": 53.8
        },
        "reason": "Model probability is not above market implied probability",
        "selection": null,
        "selection_name": null
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      "market_comparison": [
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          "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
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      "risk_key": null,
      "stacked_market": null,
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        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "display_market": "Al-Ettifaq Win",
        "is_value": false,
        "label": "Home",
        "market_fair_odds": 1.57,
        "market_odds": 1.48,
        "model_odds": 1.86,
        "overround": 5.8,
        "prob_edge": -13.8,
        "value_pct": -20.4,
        "value_rating": "no_value"
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    },
    "betting_markets": {
      "btts": {
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        "away_failed_to_score": 9,
        "away_played": 30,
        "away_score_rate": 69.9,
        "home_clean_sheet": 7,
        "home_failed_to_score": 8,
        "home_played": 30,
        "home_score_rate": 85.9,
        "no_prob": 38.7,
        "pick": "Yes",
        "pick_prob": 61.3,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": false,
        "yes_prob": 61.3
      },
      "correct_score": {
        "away_expected": 1.2,
        "home_expected": 1.96,
        "scores": [
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            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-1",
            "prob": 10.0
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-1",
            "prob": 9.8
          },
          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-0",
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            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-0",
            "prob": 8.1
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 3,
            "label": "3-1",
            "prob": 6.4
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        ],
        "source": "xG"
      },
      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
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            "key": "1X",
            "label": "Al-Ettifaq or Draw",
            "prob": 78.3
          },
          {
            "key": "12",
            "label": "Al-Ettifaq or Al Najma",
            "prob": 75.6
          },
          {
            "key": "X2",
            "label": "Draw or Al Najma",
            "prob": 46.3
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        ],
        "pick_key": "1X",
        "pick_label": "Al-Ettifaq or Draw",
        "pick_prob": 78.3
      },
      "match_winner": {
        "away_pct": 21.8,
        "draw_pct": 24.5,
        "home_pct": 53.8,
        "lean_key": "home",
        "lean_label": "Al-Ettifaq"
      },
      "over_under": {
        "api_hint": null,
        "avg_total": 3.16,
        "away_avg_scored": 1.0,
        "confidence": "medium",
        "home_avg_scored": 1.5,
        "over_prob": 61.2,
        "pick": "Under 2.5",
        "pick_prob": 61.2,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "total_expected": 3.16,
        "under_prob": 38.8
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      "prob_source": "poisson",
      "value_bet_enhanced": {
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        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "edge": 24.7,
        "implied_prob": 17.5,
        "is_value": true,
        "label": "Away",
        "market": "Al Najma Win",
        "model_prob": 21.8,
        "odds": 5.72
      }
    },
    "correct_score_insight": {
      "best_value": null,
      "most_likely": {
        "label": "1-1",
        "prob": 10.0
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    },
    "home_xg": 1.96,
    "homepage_pick": null,
    "market_cards": [
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        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_over": -0.0636,
        "ev_under": 0.0204,
        "featured": true,
        "id": "ou_2_5",
        "max_ev": 0.0204,
        "over_prob": 61.2,
        "sort_key": 10018.36,
        "tier": "best",
        "under_prob": 38.8,
        "value_side": "under"
      },
      {
        "decision": "no_bet",
        "ev": -0.1311,
        "ev_available": true,
        "featured": false,
        "id": "1x2",
        "implied_prob": 0.6384,
        "max_ev": 0.0003,
        "model_prob": 0.5376,
        "side_label": "Al-Ettifaq",
        "sort_key": 5200.24,
        "tier": "lean"
      },
      {
        "decision": "lean",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_no": -0.0596,
        "ev_yes": -0.0069,
        "featured": false,
        "id": "btts",
        "max_ev": -0.0069,
        "no_prob": 38.7,
        "sort_key": 1798.275,
        "tier": "bad_ev",
        "value_side": "yes",
        "yes_prob": 61.3
      },
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        "sort_key": 810.0,
        "tier": "risk",
        "top_label": "1-1",
        "top_prob": 10.0
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    "match": {
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      "away_team_id": 2992,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/2992.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Al Najma",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/sa.svg",
      "country_name": "Saudi-Arabia",
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      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_id": 2934,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/2934.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Al-Ettifaq",
      "league_country": "Saudi-Arabia",
      "league_id": 307,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/307.webp",
      "league_name": "Liga Pro Arab Saudi",
      "league_season": 2025,
      "match_date": "2026-05-04 18:00:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS"
    },
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        ],
        "score": 7.5
      },
      "markets": {
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          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.1842,
            "best_odd": 5.72,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0097,
            "ev": 0.0003,
            "implied_prob": 0.1652,
            "model_prob": 0.2179,
            "p_final": 0.1749
          },
          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.1856,
            "best_odd": 4.81,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0089,
            "ev": -0.0123,
            "implied_prob": 0.1964,
            "model_prob": 0.2445,
            "p_final": 0.2053
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.5093,
            "best_odd": 1.48,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0513,
            "ev": -0.1311,
            "implied_prob": 0.6384,
            "model_prob": 0.5376,
            "p_final": 0.5871
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        },
        "btts": {
          "best_no_odd": 2.43,
          "best_yes_odd": 1.62,
          "edge_no": -0.0283,
          "edge_yes": 0.0283,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_no": -0.0596,
          "ev_yes": -0.0069,
          "implied_no": 0.4153,
          "implied_yes": 0.5847,
          "n_bookmakers": 10,
          "reliability": "medium"
        },
        "ou25": {
          "best_over_odd": 1.53,
          "best_under_odd": 2.63,
          "edge_over": -0.0178,
          "edge_under": 0.0178,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_over": -0.0636,
          "ev_under": 0.0204,
          "implied_over": 0.6298,
          "implied_under": 0.3702,
          "n_bookmakers": 10,
          "reliability": "medium"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 3.16,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-04-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.0.0"
      },
      "balanced_alternative": null,
      "best_tracked_ev": 0.0204,
      "confidence": 5.0,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
        "breakdown": [],
        "breakdown_resolved": [],
        "score": 5.0
      },
      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": true,
        "1x2_open_contest": false,
        "grade": "C",
        "stake_factor": 0.0
      },
      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
      },
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        "scoring_type": "high_scoring",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.613,
          "draw_prob": 0.2445,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.5376,
          "over_prob": 0.612,
          "total_xg": 3.16,
          "under_prob": 0.388,
          "xg_diff": 0.76
        },
        "type": "high_scoring",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
      },
      "hero_display_pick": {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.0204,
        "hero_display_only": true,
        "implied_prob": 0.3702,
        "market": "ou_2_5",
        "model_prob": 0.388,
        "not_dominant": true,
        "risk_band": "speculative",
        "risk_tier": "hero_display",
        "side": "under",
        "slot": "hero_display"
      },
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "decision": "no_bet",
          "edge": -0.0513,
          "ev": -0.1311,
          "implied_prob": 0.6384,
          "max_ev_side": "away",
          "model_prob": 0.5376,
          "side": "home",
          "side_label": "Al-Ettifaq"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "lean",
          "edge": 0.0283,
          "ev": -0.0069,
          "implied_prob": 0.5847,
          "model_prob": 0.613,
          "side": "yes",
          "value_side": "yes"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.0178,
          "ev": 0.0204,
          "implied_prob": 0.3702,
          "model_prob": 0.388,
          "side": "under",
          "value_side": "under"
        }
      },
      "match_id": 1436189,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "optional",
        "actionable": false,
        "clear_edge": false,
        "code": "thin_edge",
        "execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
        "insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
        "max_valid_ev": 0.0204,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 0.25,
        "use_split_strip": true
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.2179,
        "draw": 0.2445,
        "home": 0.5376
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "no_ev_1x2",
        "high_total_goals"
      ],
      "secondary_pick": null,
      "secondary_picks": [],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Al Najma",
        "home": "Al-Ettifaq"
      },
      "top_pick": null,
      "valid_markets_count": 1
    }
  },
  "fixture_id": 1436189,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-05-04T17:59:03.986950+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}

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Liga Pro Arab Saudi Liga Pro Arab Saudi — Kedudukan
# PASUKAN P M S K Mata
1 Al-Nassr 34 28 2 4 86
2 Al-Hilal Saudi FC 34 25 9 0 84
3 Al-Ahli Jeddah 34 25 6 3 81
4 Al-Qadisiyah FC 34 23 8 3 77
5 Al-Ittihad FC 34 16 7 11 55
6 Al Taawon 34 15 8 11 53
7 Al-Ettifaq 34 14 8 12 50
8 NEOM 34 12 9 13 45
9 Al-Hazm 34 11 9 14 42
10 Al-Fayha 34 10 8 16 38
11 Al-Fateh 34 9 10 15 37
12 Al Khaleej Saihat 34 10 7 17 37
13 Al Shabab 34 8 11 15 35
14 Al Kholood 34 9 6 19 33
15 Al Riyadh 34 7 9 18 30
16 Damac 34 6 11 17 29
17 Al Akhdoud 34 5 5 24 20
18 Al Najma 34 3 7 24 16
# PASUKAN P J B +/- Mata
1 Al-Nassr 34 91 28 +63 86
2 Al-Hilal Saudi FC 34 85 27 +58 84
3 Al-Qadisiyah FC 34 83 34 +49 77
4 Al-Ahli Jeddah 34 71 25 +46 81
5 Al Taawon 34 59 46 +13 53
6 Al-Ittihad FC 34 55 48 +7 55
7 Al Khaleej Saihat 34 54 62 -8 37
8 Al-Ettifaq 34 51 55 -4 50
9 Al Shabab 34 44 57 -13 35
10 NEOM 34 43 48 -5 45
11 Al-Fayha 34 41 54 -13 38
12 Al-Fateh 34 41 55 -14 37
13 Al Kholood 34 39 61 -22 33
14 Al-Hazm 34 38 57 -19 42
15 Al Riyadh 34 35 63 -28 30
16 Damac 34 32 55 -23 29
17 Al Najma 34 32 76 -44 16
18 Al Akhdoud 34 27 70 -43 20
# PASUKAN P xG xGC +/- Mata
1 Al-Nassr 34 69.8 26.0 +43.8 86
2 Al-Hilal Saudi FC 34 68.9 25.9 +43.0 84
3 Al-Ahli Jeddah 34 62.4 26.7 +35.7 81
4 Al-Qadisiyah FC 34 62.9 35.2 +27.7 77
5 Al-Ittihad FC 34 49.5 41.2 +8.3 55
6 NEOM 34 45.8 39.4 +6.4 45
7 Al Shabab 34 44.1 44.7 -0.6 35
8 Al Taawon 34 42.0 44.7 -2.7 53
9 Al Khaleej Saihat 34 42.6 46.3 -3.7 37
10 Al-Fateh 34 42.5 49.6 -7.1 37
11 Al Riyadh 34 41.4 50.5 -9.1 30
12 Al-Fayha 34 33.3 43.4 -10.1 38
13 Al-Hazm 34 34.1 47.4 -13.3 42
14 Damac 34 25.1 38.5 -13.4 29
15 Al-Ettifaq 34 39.0 56.5 -17.5 50
16 Al Kholood 34 33.2 51.5 -18.3 33
17 Al Najma 34 28.1 61.0 -32.9 16
18 Al Akhdoud 34 26.8 62.8 -36.0 20