Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Nassr Statistics & Analysis

Al-Qadisiyah FC

May 03, 2026 - 18:00

3 1.21

1 2.07

xG Accuracy: 46%

Al-Nassr

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the model’s highlighted side (or lean) to what happened at full time.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Lebih / Kurang 2.5 Kurang 2.5 Lebih 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Ya ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Al-Nassr Al-Qadisiyah FC ✖ Incorrect
Cerapan skor tepat 1-2 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Taklimat perlawanan AI

Ringkasan perlawanan AI

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Pro League
Fixture: Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Nassr
Kickoff: 2026-05-02 17:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 20.6% · Draw 23.5% · Away 55.9%
xG (showing): Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.21 — Al-Nassr 2.07 (total xG ≈ 3.28)
Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS No
Model: 37.5% · Implied: 33.4% · Probability edge: +4.1 pts · Est. EV: +12.5%
BTTS (model): Yes 62.5% · No 37.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-2 (9.8%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Taruhan terbaik dan sebab

The engine’s headline primary is: BTTS No.

If 1X2 looks tight, the engine may still find clearer structure in totals or BTTS — that is intentional.

When several markets sit near +EV, keep stakes small — correlation means edges do not add cleanly.

FAQ

Safer market than correct score?

Markets with more liquidity and smoother prices (often 1X2 or O/U 2.5 from many books) are usually easier to reason about than long-tail correct-score prices; still read EV on each leg.

Why might 1X2 look unattractive while totals do not?

Tight 1X2 prices often embed a fair three-way split, so EV on match-winner can sit negative even when Over/Under or BTTS still diverges from the model — compare the 1X2 row on the market cards to O/U and BTTS.

What is the best-supported line in this snapshot?

Match the hero card above: if it says “Betting Primary Pick”, that leg cleared primary rules; if it says “Best +EV (tracked markets)”, it is the strongest +EV line that did not meet stricter Primary thresholds. The bullets below repeat the same model %, implied %, edge (pts), and EV % as that card.

Is the most likely correct score a good bet?

Usually no as a standalone bet: the “most likely” scoreline is still a low absolute probability tail event (often single digits, sometimes low teens). Use it as context; keep any correct-score stake in the “fun / small” bucket.

Faktor risiko

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Metodologi

Inputs: Same structured facts bundle as the public prediction page (xG / Poisson snapshot, market EV where available, decision engine v2).
Narrative: Template sentence library with fixture-stable selection (no per-request LLM for this block).
Compliance: Educational framing only; not personalised advice.

Terakhir dikemas kini

May 01, 2026 (UTC)

Bagaimana untuk menggunakan ini

Fokus pada baris Utama apabila anda mahukan satu idea yang boleh diambil tindakan.
Jangan parlay banyak picks tepi nipis bersama-sama;tepi tidak menambah dengan pasti.
Anggap pukulan panjang sebagai permainan pilihan, bersaiz tinggi sahaja.

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Pro League — Kedudukan

#	PASUKAN	MP	M	S	K	PTS
1	Al-Nassr	33	27	2	4	83
2	Al-Hilal Saudi FC	33	24	9	0	81
3	Al-Ahli Jeddah	33	24	6	3	78
4	Al-Qadisiyah FC	33	22	8	3	74
5	Al-Ittihad FC	33	16	7	10	55
6	Al Taawon	33	15	8	10	53
7	Al-Ettifaq	33	14	7	12	49
8	NEOM	33	12	8	13	44
9	Al-Hazm	33	10	9	14	39
10	Al-Fayha	33	10	8	15	38
11	Al Khaleej Saihat	33	10	7	16	37
12	Al-Fateh	33	9	9	15	36
13	Al Shabab	33	8	11	14	35
14	Al Kholood	33	9	5	19	32
15	Damac	33	6	11	16	29
16	Al Riyadh	33	6	9	18	27
17	Al Okhdood	33	5	5	23	20
18	Al Najma	33	2	7	24	13

#	PASUKAN	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Al-Nassr	33	87	27	+60	83
2	Al-Hilal Saudi FC	33	84	27	+57	81
3	Al-Qadisiyah FC	33	78	33	+45	74
4	Al-Ahli Jeddah	33	67	24	+43	78
5	Al Taawon	33	59	44	+15	53
6	Al-Ittihad FC	33	54	43	+11	55
7	Al Khaleej Saihat	33	53	58	-5	37
8	Al-Ettifaq	33	50	54	-4	49
9	Al Shabab	33	44	56	-12	35
10	NEOM	33	42	47	-5	44
11	Al-Fayha	33	41	53	-12	38
12	Al-Fateh	33	41	55	-14	36
13	Al Kholood	33	39	61	-22	32
14	Al-Hazm	33	36	57	-21	39
15	Al Riyadh	33	34	63	-29	27
16	Damac	33	31	51	-20	29
17	Al Najma	33	31	76	-45	13
18	Al Okhdood	33	27	69	-42	20

#	PASUKAN	MP	xG	xGC	+/-	PTS
1	Al-Nassr	33	65.9	24.9	+41.0	83
2	Al-Hilal Saudi FC	33	66.0	25.1	+40.9	81
3	Al-Ahli Jeddah	33	55.6	24.3	+31.3	78
4	Al-Qadisiyah FC	33	58.8	33.4	+25.4	74
5	Al-Ittihad FC	33	47.6	37.0	+10.6	55
6	NEOM	33	44.2	38.9	+5.3	44
7	Al Shabab	33	43.1	43.3	-0.2	35
8	Al Taawon	33	41.1	42.2	-1.1	53
9	Al Khaleej Saihat	33	40.9	42.6	-1.7	37
10	Al-Fateh	33	40.9	43.5	-2.6	36
11	Al-Fayha	33	33.1	42.3	-9.2	38
12	Al Riyadh	33	40.3	50.0	-9.7	27
13	Damac	33	24.2	37.4	-13.2	29
14	Al-Hazm	33	31.7	46.5	-14.8	39
15	Al-Ettifaq	33	38.4	54.9	-16.5	49
16	Al Kholood	33	31.6	48.5	-16.9	32
17	Al Najma	33	26.8	60.1	-33.3	13
18	Al Okhdood	33	26.3	61.8	-35.5	20