Freienbach vs Baden Statistics & Analysis

May 20, 2026 - 18:00
3 1.45
0 1.25
xG Accuracy: 46%
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang

Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa

Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.

  • Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 matlamat) ✔ Betul
  • Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Tidak ✖ tak betul
  • 1X2 Freienbach Freienbach ✔ Betul
  • Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 2-2, 1-3 3-0 ✖ tak betul

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 08, 2026 · 11:07 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3258778

Closing Odds 2.24
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Freienbach win · Freienbach 3–0 Baden
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Intelijen pasaran

Bacaan selepas pilihan utama: bagaimana suapan penutup berprioriti bergerak berbanding model.

Ringkasan pasaran

Pasaran kekal stabil menjelang sepakan. Tiada anjakan implied ketara antara PRE30 dan PRE1 pada snapshot berprioriti.

Walaupun pergerakan lewat kecil, model masih menilai Freienbach (1X2),Lukis (1X2),Bawah 2.5 gol jauh melebihi implied snapshot penutupan — bacaan statik "model vs harga", bukan kejaran steam.

Model masih melebihi implied penutupan pada Bawah 2.5 gol kira-kira 13.5 mata peratus — isyarat salah harga paling jelas pada halaman ini.

Model vs implied penutup

Pasaran Model % Implied penutup % Jurang (pp)
Freienbach (1X2) 41.8 34.7 +7.1
Lukis (1X2) 25.7 24.4 +1.2
Baden (1X2) 32.6 40.9 -8.3
Lebih 2.5 gol 50.6 64.1 -13.5
Bawah 2.5 gol 49.4 35.9 +13.5
Apa maksudnya

Secara ringkas: model kira-kira 49.4% pada Bawah 2.5 gol, manakala snapshot penutup menunjukkan kira-kira 35.9%. Bezanya — kira-kira 13.5 mata peratus — ialah jurang model-vs-pasaran terbesar yang ditonjolkan di halaman ini.

Ringkas: "implied penutup" ialah kebarangkalian terbit daripada odds akhir yang ditangkap (selepas de-vig ringkas). "Jurang (pp)" = peratus model tolak implied tersebut, dalam mata peratus (pp).

Pergerakan garisan menjelang sepakan mula

Satu buku prioriti setiap snapshot (bukan semua). Laluan tangkapan: PRE30 → PRE1 · Buku: Pinnacle

Dalam kurungan pada lajur: Penutup = snapshot pertama tersedia ikut PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Awal = pertama dalam PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 yang berbeza daripada Penutup.

Odds terperinci dilipat di bawah — pergerakan implied (de-vig) boleh diabaikan.

Lihat jadual penuh baris demi baris
Pasaran Awal (PRE30) Penutup (PRE1) Δ tersirat (pp)
Freienbach (1X2) 2.64 2.64 0.0
Lukis (1X2) 3.75 3.75 0.0
Baden (1X2) 2.24 2.24 0.0
Lebih 2.5 gol 1.44 1.44 0.0
Bawah 2.5 gol 2.57 2.57 0.0

Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.

View technical JSON
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      "dc_rho": -0.13,
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    "away_xg": 1.25,
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    "betting_markets": {
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        "away_score_rate": 89.3,
        "home_clean_sheet": 5,
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        ],
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      },
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      "match_winner": {
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        "home_pct": 10.0,
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        "lean_label": "Draw"
      },
      "over_under": {
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        "avg_total": 3.65,
        "away_avg_scored": 2.0,
        "confidence": "high",
        "home_avg_scored": 1.7,
        "over_prob": 70.6,
        "pick": "Over 2.5",
        "pick_prob": 70.6,
        "source": "avg",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "total_expected": 3.65,
        "under_prob": 29.4
      },
      "prob_source": null,
      "value_bet_enhanced": null
    },
    "closing_line_bundle": {
      "away_team": "Baden",
      "closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "closing_capture": "PRE1",
      "early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "early_capture": "PRE30",
      "has_data": true,
      "home_team": "Freienbach",
      "largest_move_kind": null,
      "max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
      "model_vs_closing": [
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    "homepage_pick": null,
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      "away_team_id": 12699,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/12699.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Baden",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/ch.svg",
      "country_name": "Switzerland",
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      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_id": 6625,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/6625.webp",
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      "league_name": "1. Liga Classic - Kumpulan 3",
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      "status_long": "Not Started",
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          "implied_under": 0.3663,
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          "reliability": "medium"
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      },
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      "total_xg": 2.7,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
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      "algorithm": {
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        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.1.0"
      },
      "balanced_alternative": null,
      "best_tracked_ev": 0.059,
      "confidence": 5.0,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
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          "pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
        ],
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          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
        ],
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      },
      "execution": {
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        "1x2_open_contest": true,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
      },
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        "gap": null,
        "side": null
      },
      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
        "scoring_type": "neutral",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.702,
          "draw_prob": 0.2567,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.4177,
          "over_prob": 0.706,
          "total_xg": 2.7,
          "under_prob": 0.294,
          "xg_diff": 0.2
        },
        "type": "neutral",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
      },
      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
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          "edge": 0.0285,
          "ev": -0.009,
          "implied_prob": 0.3469,
          "max_ev_side": "home",
          "model_prob": 0.4177,
          "side": "home",
          "side_label": "Freienbach"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "small_edge",
          "edge": 0.0557,
          "ev": 0.0109,
          "implied_prob": 0.6463,
          "model_prob": 0.702,
          "side": "yes",
          "value_side": "yes"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
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          "edge": 0.0723,
          "ev": 0.059,
          "implied_prob": 0.6337,
          "model_prob": 0.706,
          "side": "over",
          "value_side": "over"
        }
      },
      "match_id": 1430619,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "optional",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": false,
        "code": "thin_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.059,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 0.25,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.3257,
        "draw": 0.2567,
        "home": 0.4177
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "no_ev_1x2",
        "high_total_goals"
      ],
      "secondary_pick": null,
      "secondary_picks": [],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Baden",
        "home": "Freienbach"
      },
      "top_pick": {
        "composite_score": 0.041654,
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.059,
        "implied_prob": 0.6337,
        "market": "ou_2_5",
        "model_prob": 0.706,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "over",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
      },
      "valid_markets_count": 1
    }
  },
  "fixture_id": 1430619,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-05-23T18:51:00.603905+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}

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1. Liga Classic - Kumpulan 3 1. Liga Classic - Kumpulan 3 — Kedudukan
# PASUKAN P M S K Mata
1 YF Juventus 30 23 4 3 73
2 Tuggen 30 19 4 7 61
3 Taverne 30 18 6 6 60
4 Wettswil-Bonstetten 30 18 5 7 59
5 Dietikon 30 12 8 10 44
6 Freienbach 30 12 7 11 43
7 Baden 30 11 8 11 41
8 Mendrisio 30 11 7 12 40
9 Winterthur II 30 10 9 11 39
10 Collina d'Oro 30 10 9 11 39
11 Kosova 30 9 9 12 36
12 St. Gallen II 30 9 5 16 35
13 Eschen / Mauren 30 7 11 12 32
14 Widnau 30 7 6 17 27
15 Höngg 30 6 7 17 25
16 SV Schaffhausen 30 3 5 22 14
# PASUKAN P J B +/- Mata
1 YF Juventus 30 81 26 +55 73
2 Wettswil-Bonstetten 30 74 36 +38 59
3 Tuggen 30 74 52 +22 61
4 Winterthur II 30 61 53 +8 39
5 Baden 30 58 52 +6 41
6 Dietikon 30 54 47 +7 44
7 Kosova 30 54 55 -1 36
8 Taverne 30 53 31 +22 60
9 Freienbach 30 53 53 0 43
10 St. Gallen II 30 47 66 -19 35
11 Collina d'Oro 30 46 44 +2 39
12 Mendrisio 30 42 44 -2 40
13 Eschen / Mauren 30 35 51 -16 32
14 Widnau 30 34 63 -29 27
15 Höngg 30 32 62 -30 25
16 SV Schaffhausen 30 24 87 -63 14