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Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the model’s highlighted side (or lean) to what happened at full time.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Kreuzlingen Draw ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 2-2, 1-0 1-1 ✔ Correct
AI briefing is not available yet for this match. Run “Batch generate odds” again after upgrading the server to generate the summary.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "16ddd91971da6005a84d5ae65fcbbb67114defe7629001c6e35284aecde0189c",
"decision_algo_version": "2.2.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.25,
"away_win_prob": null,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.438,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.562,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": null,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": null,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": null,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": null,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.45,
"home_win_prob": null,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.506,
"prediction_confidence": "none",
"under_25_prob": 0.494
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : Kreuzlingen or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Kreuzlingen"
},
"away_xg": 1.25,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Kreuzlingen",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.0395,
"edge_gap": 0.092,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4572,
"model_prob": 0.4177,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 32.6,
"draw": 25.7,
"home": 41.8
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": null
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 5,
"away_failed_to_score": 10,
"away_played": 34,
"away_score_rate": 70.6,
"home_clean_sheet": 3,
"home_failed_to_score": 10,
"home_played": 33,
"home_score_rate": 69.7,
"no_prob": 50.8,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 50.8,
"source": "stats",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 49.2
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.7,
"home_expected": 1.75,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 9.4
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.0
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-2",
"prob": 7.0
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 5.6
}
],
"source": "avg"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Kreuzlingen or Draw",
"prob": 90.0
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Kreuzlingen or Lugano II",
"prob": 55.0
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Lugano II",
"prob": 55.0
}
],
"pick_key": "1X",
"pick_label": "Kreuzlingen or Draw",
"pick_prob": 90.0
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 10.0,
"draw_pct": 45.0,
"home_pct": 45.0,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Kreuzlingen"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 3.45,
"away_avg_scored": 1.4,
"confidence": "high",
"home_avg_scored": 1.3,
"over_prob": 67.0,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 67.0,
"source": "avg",
"strong_pick": false,
"total_expected": 3.45,
"under_prob": 33.0
},
"prob_source": null,
"value_bet_enhanced": null
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Lugano II",
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Kreuzlingen",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 45.72,
"gap_pp": -3.95,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 41.77
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 23.91,
"gap_pp": 1.76,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 25.67
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 30.37,
"gap_pp": 2.19,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 32.57
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 65.59,
"gap_pp": 1.41,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 67.0
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 34.41,
"gap_pp": -1.41,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 33.0
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 1.94,
"early": 1.94,
"implied_closing_pct": 45.72,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 45.72,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.71,
"early": 3.71,
"implied_closing_pct": 23.91,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 23.91,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.92,
"early": 2.92,
"implied_closing_pct": 30.37,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 30.37,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.39,
"early": 1.39,
"implied_closing_pct": 65.59,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 65.59,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.65,
"early": 2.65,
"implied_closing_pct": 34.41,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 34.41,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 2.2,
"kind": "1x2_a"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 9.4
}
},
"home_xg": 1.45,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.5748,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 57.5,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"ev_yes": -0.3456,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -34.6,
"text": "-34.6%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.5748,
"no_prob": 50.8,
"sort_key": 10667.32,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 49.2
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.0687,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -6.9,
"text": "-6.9%"
},
"ev_under": -0.0199,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -2.0,
"text": "-2.0%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": -0.0199,
"over_prob": 67.0,
"sort_key": 1795.025,
"tier": "bad_ev",
"under_prob": 33.0,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "no_bet",
"ev": -0.1563,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -15.6,
"text": "-15.6%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4572,
"max_ev": -0.0852,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -8.5,
"text": "-8.5%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4177,
"side_label": "Kreuzlingen",
"sort_key": 1778.7,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 808.2,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 9.4
}
],
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 17441,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/17441.webp",
"away_team_name": "Lugano II",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ch.svg",
"country_name": "Switzerland",
"fixture_id": 1420342,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_country": "Switzerland",
"home_team_id": 14504,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/14504.webp",
"home_team_name": "Kreuzlingen",
"league_country": "Switzerland",
"league_id": 510,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/510.webp",
"league_name": "1. Liga Promotion",
"league_season": 2025,
"match_date": "2026-05-30 14:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Kreuzlingen",
"venue_name": "Sportplatz Hafenareal"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4352,
"best_odd": 2.92,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0095,
"ev": -0.0852,
"implied_prob": 0.3037,
"model_prob": 0.3257,
"p_final": 0.3133
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2921,
"best_odd": 3.71,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0051,
"ev": -0.094,
"implied_prob": 0.2391,
"model_prob": 0.2567,
"p_final": 0.2442
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.5644,
"best_odd": 1.94,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0223,
"ev": -0.1563,
"implied_prob": 0.4572,
"model_prob": 0.4177,
"p_final": 0.4349
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 3.1,
"best_yes_odd": 1.33,
"edge_no": 0.1968,
"edge_yes": -0.1968,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.5748,
"ev_yes": -0.3456,
"implied_no": 0.3112,
"implied_yes": 0.6888,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 1.39,
"best_under_odd": 2.97,
"edge_over": -0.0136,
"edge_under": 0.0136,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.0687,
"ev_under": -0.0199,
"implied_over": 0.6836,
"implied_under": 0.3164,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.7,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.5748,
"confidence": 6.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
"scoring_type": "neutral",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.492,
"draw_prob": 0.2567,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4177,
"over_prob": 0.67,
"total_xg": 2.7,
"under_prob": 0.33,
"xg_diff": 0.2
},
"type": "neutral",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0223,
"ev": -0.1563,
"implied_prob": 0.4572,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4177,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Kreuzlingen"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.1968,
"ev": 0.5748,
"implied_prob": 0.3112,
"model_prob": 0.508,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "lean",
"edge": 0.0136,
"ev": -0.0199,
"implied_prob": 0.3164,
"model_prob": 0.33,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1420342,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.5748,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3257,
"draw": 0.2567,
"home": 0.4177
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Lugano II",
"home": "Kreuzlingen"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.291998,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.5748,
"implied_prob": 0.3112,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.508,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1
}
},
"fixture_id": 1420342,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-05-30T18:54:14.826964+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
How to use this
- Focus on the Primary line when you want one actionable idea.
- Do not parlay many thin-edge picks together; edges do not add reliably.
- Treat longshots as optional, high-stake-sizing plays only.
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1. Liga Promotion — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SC Kriens | 34 | 25 | 4 | 5 | 79 |
| 2 | Brühl | 34 | 22 | 6 | 6 | 72 |
| 3 | Biel-Bienne | 34 | 19 | 7 | 8 | 64 |
| 4 | Basel II | 34 | 17 | 8 | 9 | 59 |
| 5 | Bavois | 34 | 17 | 4 | 13 | 55 |
| 6 | Young Boys II | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 54 |
| 7 | FC Schaffhausen | 34 | 16 | 5 | 13 | 53 |
| 8 | Bulle | 34 | 15 | 6 | 13 | 51 |
| 9 | Cham | 34 | 14 | 8 | 12 | 50 |
| 10 | Grand-Saconnex | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 43 |
| 11 | Zürich II | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 41 |
| 12 | Breitenrain | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 41 |
| 13 | Luzern II | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 40 |
| 14 | Kreuzlingen | 34 | 8 | 13 | 13 | 37 |
| 15 | Lugano II | 34 | 8 | 12 | 14 | 36 |
| 16 | Paradiso | 34 | 8 | 11 | 15 | 35 |
| 17 | Lausanne Sport II | 34 | 9 | 4 | 21 | 31 |
| 18 | Vevey Sports | 34 | 1 | 5 | 28 | 2 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SC Kriens | 34 | 100 | 43 | +57 | 79 |
| 2 | Brühl | 34 | 89 | 46 | +43 | 72 |
| 3 | Luzern II | 34 | 80 | 83 | -3 | 40 |
| 4 | Biel-Bienne | 34 | 78 | 46 | +32 | 64 |
| 5 | Grand-Saconnex | 34 | 71 | 69 | +2 | 43 |
| 6 | Bulle | 34 | 70 | 64 | +6 | 51 |
| 7 | Young Boys II | 34 | 66 | 52 | +14 | 54 |
| 8 | Basel II | 34 | 65 | 48 | +17 | 59 |
| 9 | Bavois | 34 | 64 | 53 | +11 | 55 |
| 10 | Cham | 34 | 62 | 61 | +1 | 50 |
| 11 | Lausanne Sport II | 34 | 60 | 84 | -24 | 31 |
| 12 | Zürich II | 34 | 59 | 62 | -3 | 41 |
| 13 | FC Schaffhausen | 34 | 51 | 46 | +5 | 53 |
| 14 | Paradiso | 34 | 51 | 65 | -14 | 35 |
| 15 | Breitenrain | 34 | 47 | 51 | -4 | 41 |
| 16 | Lugano II | 34 | 45 | 75 | -30 | 36 |
| 17 | Kreuzlingen | 34 | 43 | 66 | -23 | 37 |
| 18 | Vevey Sports | 34 | 28 | 115 | -87 | 2 |
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