Statistik / Bola Sepak / Switzerland. 1. Liga Promosi / Grand-Saconnex vs Luzern II

Grand-Saconnex vs Luzern II Statistics & Analysis

Grand-Saconnex Grand-Saconnex
May 16, 2026 - 15:00
3 1.45
2 1.25
xG Accuracy: 53%
Luzern II Luzern II
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Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa

Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.

  • Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 matlamat) ✔ Betul
  • Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Betul
  • 1X2 Grand-Saconnex Grand-Saconnex ✔ Betul
  • Cerapan skor tepat 2-2, 2-1, 1-2, 1-1, 3-2 3-2 ✔ Betul

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 31, 2026 · 06:56 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2584219

Closing Odds 1.78
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Grand-Saconnex win · Grand-Saconnex 3–2 Luzern II
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Intelijen pasaran

Bacaan selepas pilihan utama: bagaimana suapan penutup berprioriti bergerak berbanding model.

Ringkasan pasaran

Pasaran kekal stabil menjelang sepakan. Tiada anjakan implied ketara antara PRE30 dan PRE1 pada snapshot berprioriti.

Walaupun pergerakan lewat kecil, model masih menilai Lukis (1X2),Luzern II (1X2) jauh melebihi implied snapshot penutupan — bacaan statik "model vs harga", bukan kejaran steam.

Model masih melebihi implied penutupan pada Luzern II (1X2) kira-kira 6.3 mata peratus — isyarat salah harga paling jelas pada halaman ini.

Model vs implied penutup

Pasaran Model % Implied penutup % Jurang (pp)
Grand-Saconnex (1X2) 41.8 52.2 -10.4
Lukis (1X2) 25.7 21.5 +4.1
Luzern II (1X2) 32.6 26.3 +6.3
Apa maksudnya

Secara ringkas: model kira-kira 32.6% pada Luzern II (1X2), manakala snapshot penutup menunjukkan kira-kira 26.3%. Bezanya — kira-kira 6.3 mata peratus — ialah jurang model-vs-pasaran terbesar yang ditonjolkan di halaman ini.

Ringkas: "implied penutup" ialah kebarangkalian terbit daripada odds akhir yang ditangkap (selepas de-vig ringkas). "Jurang (pp)" = peratus model tolak implied tersebut, dalam mata peratus (pp).

Pergerakan garisan menjelang sepakan mula

Satu buku prioriti setiap snapshot (bukan semua). Laluan tangkapan: PRE30 → PRE1 · Buku: Pinnacle

Dalam kurungan pada lajur: Penutup = snapshot pertama tersedia ikut PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Awal = pertama dalam PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 yang berbeza daripada Penutup.

Odds terperinci dilipat di bawah — pergerakan implied (de-vig) boleh diabaikan.

Lihat jadual penuh baris demi baris
Pasaran Awal (PRE30) Penutup (PRE1) Δ tersirat (pp)
Grand-Saconnex (1X2) 1.78 1.78 0.0
Lukis (1X2) 4.31 4.31 0.0
Luzern II (1X2) 3.53 3.53 0.0

Taklimat perlawanan AI

Ringkasan perlawanan AI

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: 1. Liga Promosi
  • Fixture: Grand-Saconnex vs Luzern II
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-17 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Grand-Saconnex 1.45 — Luzern II 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +1.9%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 17.9% · Over 2.5 82.1%); BTTS Yes (Yes 81.5% · No 18.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 81.5% · No 18.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 2-2 (7.2%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Syor Sejarah

Keputusan Sejarah: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Hasil: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Faktor Risiko Dipertimbangkan Sebelum Sepak Mula

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Terakhir dikemas kini

May 17, 2026 (UTC)

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1. Liga Promosi 1. Liga Promosi — Kedudukan
# PASUKAN P M S K Mata
1 SC Kriens 34 25 4 5 79
2 Brühl 34 22 6 6 72
3 Biel-Bienne 34 19 7 8 64
4 Basel II 34 17 8 9 59
5 Bavois 34 17 4 13 55
6 Young Boys II 34 15 9 10 54
7 FC Schaffhausen 34 16 5 13 53
8 Bulle 34 15 6 13 51
9 Cham 34 14 8 12 50
10 Grand-Saconnex 34 11 10 13 43
11 Zürich II 34 11 8 15 41
12 Breitenrain 34 11 8 15 41
13 Luzern II 34 10 10 14 40
14 Kreuzlingen 34 8 13 13 37
15 Lugano II 34 8 12 14 36
16 Paradiso 34 8 11 15 35
17 Lausanne Sport II 34 9 4 21 31
18 Vevey Sports 34 1 5 28 2
# PASUKAN P J B +/- Mata
1 SC Kriens 34 100 43 +57 79
2 Brühl 34 89 46 +43 72
3 Luzern II 34 80 83 -3 40
4 Biel-Bienne 34 78 46 +32 64
5 Grand-Saconnex 34 71 69 +2 43
6 Bulle 34 70 64 +6 51
7 Young Boys II 34 66 52 +14 54
8 Basel II 34 65 48 +17 59
9 Bavois 34 64 53 +11 55
10 Cham 34 62 61 +1 50
11 Lausanne Sport II 34 60 84 -24 31
12 Zürich II 34 59 62 -3 41
13 FC Schaffhausen 34 51 46 +5 53
14 Paradiso 34 51 65 -14 35
15 Breitenrain 34 47 51 -4 41
16 Lugano II 34 45 75 -30 36
17 Kreuzlingen 34 43 66 -23 37
18 Vevey Sports 34 28 115 -87 2
1. Liga Promosi Switzerland. 1. Liga Promosi Ramalan