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Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the model’s highlighted side (or lean) to what happened at full time.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Favoritner AC Retz ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 0-1, 0-0, 1-1, 1-0, 0-2 2-1 ✖ Incorrect
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View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "2ca8f2d37dcb24e5bdf7627777bfe95ed2ad2d3f323904bb29be52ccf93f53bf",
"decision_algo_version": "2.2.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"afp_away_win_prob": 0.4055,
"afp_draw_prob": 0.3033,
"afp_home_win_prob": 0.2912,
"away_predicted_xg": 1.02,
"away_win_prob": 0.4055,
"away_win_prob_posterior": 0.4055,
"bayes_applied": 1,
"btts_no_prob": 0.588,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.412,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.3033,
"draw_prob_posterior": 0.3033,
"fair_odds_away": 2.47,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": 2.47,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.3,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": 3.3,
"fair_odds_home": 3.43,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": 3.43,
"home_predicted_xg": 0.96,
"home_win_prob": 0.2912,
"home_win_prob_posterior": 0.2912,
"over_25_prob": 0.318,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.682
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Favoritner AC",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Favoritner AC"
},
"away_xg": 1.02,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Favoritner AC",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.1465,
"edge_gap": 0.1019,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.5516,
"model_prob": 0.4051,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 40.5,
"draw": 30.3,
"home": 29.2
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 1.61
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 1.61,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Favoritner AC Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 1.81,
"market_odds": 1.61,
"model_odds": 2.47,
"overround": 12.6,
"prob_edge": -21.6,
"value_pct": -34.8,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 6,
"away_failed_to_score": 10,
"away_played": 31,
"away_score_rate": 63.9,
"home_clean_sheet": 4,
"home_failed_to_score": 16,
"home_played": 31,
"home_score_rate": 61.7,
"no_prob": 58.8,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 58.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 41.2
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.02,
"home_expected": 0.96,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 14.1
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 13.8
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 13.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 13.3
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-2",
"prob": 7.2
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Retz or Draw",
"prob": 59.4
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Retz or Favoritner AC",
"prob": 69.7
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Favoritner AC",
"prob": 70.9
}
],
"pick_key": "X2",
"pick_label": "Draw or Favoritner AC",
"pick_prob": 70.9
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 40.6,
"draw_pct": 30.3,
"home_pct": 29.1,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Favoritner AC"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 1.98,
"away_avg_scored": 1.4,
"confidence": "high",
"home_avg_scored": 0.7,
"over_prob": 31.8,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 68.2,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 1.98,
"under_prob": 68.2
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 38.2,
"implied_prob": 21.9,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market": "Draw",
"model_prob": 30.3,
"odds": 4.56
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"has_data": false
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"most_likely": {
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 14.1
}
},
"home_xg": 0.96,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.4594,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -45.9,
"text": "-45.9%"
},
"ev_under": 0.7732,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 77.3,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.7732,
"over_prob": 31.8,
"sort_key": 10845.88,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 68.2,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.4818,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 48.2,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"ev_yes": -0.4026,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -40.3,
"text": "-40.3%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.4818,
"no_prob": 58.8,
"sort_key": 10433.62,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 41.2
},
{
"decision": "no_bet",
"ev": -0.2224,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -22.2,
"text": "-22.2%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.5516,
"max_ev": -0.0292,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -2.9,
"text": "-2.9%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4051,
"side_label": "Favoritner AC",
"sort_key": 1792.7,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 822.3,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "0-1",
"top_prob": 14.1
}
],
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 8367,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/8367.webp",
"away_team_name": "Favoritner AC",
"country_code": "AT",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/at.svg",
"country_name": "Austria",
"fixture_id": 1418147,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_country": "Austria",
"home_team_id": 8288,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/8288.webp",
"home_team_name": "Retz",
"league_country": "Austria",
"league_id": 221,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/221.webp",
"league_name": "Regionalliga - Ost",
"league_season": 2025,
"match_date": "2026-06-06 14:30:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Retz",
"venue_name": "Sportplatz Retz"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_draw_above_30"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4682,
"best_odd": 1.61,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0686,
"ev": -0.2224,
"implied_prob": 0.5516,
"model_prob": 0.4051,
"p_final": 0.483
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1675,
"best_odd": 4.56,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0182,
"ev": -0.0292,
"implied_prob": 0.1947,
"model_prob": 0.3032,
"p_final": 0.2129
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2829,
"best_odd": 3.5,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0107,
"ev": -0.0744,
"implied_prob": 0.2537,
"model_prob": 0.2917,
"p_final": 0.2645
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 2.52,
"best_yes_odd": 1.45,
"edge_no": 0.2139,
"edge_yes": -0.2139,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.4818,
"ev_yes": -0.4026,
"implied_no": 0.3741,
"implied_yes": 0.6259,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 1.7,
"best_under_odd": 2.6,
"edge_over": -0.295,
"edge_under": 0.295,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.4594,
"ev_under": 0.7732,
"implied_over": 0.613,
"implied_under": 0.387,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 1.98,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.7732,
"confidence": 6.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_draw_above_30",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u6781\u7aef\u9632\u5b88\uff08\u4f4e\u8fdb\u7403\uff09",
"scoring_type": "defensive",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.412,
"draw_prob": 0.3032,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4051,
"over_prob": 0.318,
"total_xg": 1.98,
"under_prob": 0.682,
"xg_diff": 0.06
},
"type": "defensive",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0686,
"ev": -0.2224,
"implied_prob": 0.5516,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.4051,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Favoritner AC"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.2139,
"ev": 0.4818,
"implied_prob": 0.3741,
"model_prob": 0.588,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.295,
"ev": 0.7732,
"implied_prob": 0.387,
"model_prob": 0.682,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1418147,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.7732,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.4051,
"draw": 0.3032,
"home": 0.2917
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.4818,
"implied_prob": 0.3741,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.588,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.4818,
"implied_prob": 0.3741,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.588,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Favoritner AC",
"home": "Retz"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.685519,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.7732,
"implied_prob": 0.387,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.682,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2
}
},
"fixture_id": 1418147,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-06-06T18:15:02.033824+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
How to use this
- Focus on the Primary line when you want one actionable idea.
- Do not parlay many thin-edge picks together; edges do not add reliably.
- Treat longshots as optional, high-stake-sizing plays only.
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Regionalliga - Ost — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Parndorf | 32 | 18 | 8 | 6 | 62 |
| 2 | Gloggnitz | 31 | 18 | 8 | 5 | 62 |
| 3 | Krems / Rehberg | 32 | 17 | 7 | 8 | 58 |
| 4 | Leobendorf | 32 | 18 | 3 | 11 | 57 |
| 5 | Oberwart | 32 | 17 | 5 | 10 | 56 |
| 6 | SV Horn | 32 | 14 | 9 | 9 | 51 |
| 7 | Traiskirchen | 32 | 14 | 8 | 10 | 50 |
| 8 | Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf | 32 | 13 | 10 | 9 | 49 |
| 9 | Fach-Donaufeld | 32 | 13 | 8 | 11 | 47 |
| 10 | Wiener Viktoria | 32 | 13 | 6 | 13 | 45 |
| 11 | Donau | 32 | 12 | 8 | 12 | 44 |
| 12 | Wiener SC | 31 | 12 | 7 | 12 | 43 |
| 13 | Favoritner AC | 31 | 12 | 3 | 16 | 39 |
| 14 | Union Mauer | 32 | 10 | 7 | 15 | 37 |
| 15 | Neusiedl | 32 | 8 | 5 | 19 | 29 |
| 16 | Retz | 31 | 3 | 8 | 20 | 17 |
| 17 | TWL Elektra | 32 | 2 | 2 | 28 | 8 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oberwart | 32 | 73 | 42 | +31 | 56 |
| 2 | Traiskirchen | 32 | 70 | 52 | +18 | 50 |
| 3 | Krems / Rehberg | 32 | 61 | 33 | +28 | 58 |
| 4 | Parndorf | 32 | 58 | 34 | +24 | 62 |
| 5 | SV Horn | 32 | 57 | 35 | +22 | 51 |
| 6 | Gloggnitz | 31 | 57 | 39 | +18 | 62 |
| 7 | Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf | 32 | 55 | 37 | +18 | 49 |
| 8 | Fach-Donaufeld | 32 | 51 | 44 | +7 | 47 |
| 9 | Wiener Viktoria | 32 | 50 | 51 | -1 | 45 |
| 10 | Donau | 32 | 50 | 57 | -7 | 44 |
| 11 | Leobendorf | 32 | 48 | 34 | +14 | 57 |
| 12 | Wiener SC | 31 | 48 | 51 | -3 | 43 |
| 13 | Neusiedl | 32 | 46 | 72 | -26 | 29 |
| 14 | Favoritner AC | 31 | 43 | 50 | -7 | 39 |
| 15 | Union Mauer | 32 | 32 | 47 | -15 | 37 |
| 16 | Retz | 31 | 23 | 63 | -40 | 17 |
| 17 | TWL Elektra | 32 | 21 | 102 | -81 | 8 |