Statistik / Bola Sepak / Poland. III liga – Grupa II / Tłuchowia vs Stargard Szczeciński

Tłuchowia vs Stargard Szczeciński Statistics & Analysis

May 22, 2026 - 15:30
1 1.45
4 1.25
xG Accuracy: 42%
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang

Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa

Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.

  • Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
  • Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Ya ✖ tak betul
  • 1X2 Tłuchowia Stargard Szczeciński ✖ tak betul
  • Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-2, 0-1, 0-2, 2-1 1-4 ✖ tak betul

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 05, 2026 · 12:58 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3050521

Closing Odds 1.54
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Stargard Szczeciński win · Tłuchowia 1–4 Stargard Szczeciński
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Intelijen pasaran

Bacaan selepas pilihan utama: bagaimana suapan penutup berprioriti bergerak berbanding model.

Ringkasan pasaran

Pasaran kekal stabil menjelang sepakan. Tiada anjakan implied ketara antara PRE30 dan PRE1 pada snapshot berprioriti.

Walaupun pergerakan lewat kecil, model masih menilai Tłuchowia (1X2),Lukis (1X2),Bawah 2.5 gol jauh melebihi implied snapshot penutupan — bacaan statik "model vs harga", bukan kejaran steam.

Model masih melebihi implied penutupan pada Tłuchowia (1X2) kira-kira 20.8 mata peratus — isyarat salah harga paling jelas pada halaman ini.

Model vs implied penutup

Pasaran Model % Implied penutup % Jurang (pp)
Tłuchowia (1X2) 41.8 21.0 +20.8
Lukis (1X2) 25.7 21.3 +4.4
Stargard Szczeciński (1X2) 32.6 57.7 -25.1
Lebih 2.5 gol 50.6 58.6 -8.0
Bawah 2.5 gol 49.4 41.4 +8.0
Apa maksudnya

Secara ringkas: model kira-kira 41.8% pada Tłuchowia (1X2), manakala snapshot penutup menunjukkan kira-kira 21.0%. Bezanya — kira-kira 20.8 mata peratus — ialah jurang model-vs-pasaran terbesar yang ditonjolkan di halaman ini.

Ringkas: "implied penutup" ialah kebarangkalian terbit daripada odds akhir yang ditangkap (selepas de-vig ringkas). "Jurang (pp)" = peratus model tolak implied tersebut, dalam mata peratus (pp).

Pergerakan garisan menjelang sepakan mula

Satu buku prioriti setiap snapshot (bukan semua). Laluan tangkapan: PRE30 → PRE1 · Buku: Pinnacle

Dalam kurungan pada lajur: Penutup = snapshot pertama tersedia ikut PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Awal = pertama dalam PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 yang berbeza daripada Penutup.

Odds terperinci dilipat di bawah — pergerakan implied (de-vig) boleh diabaikan.

Lihat jadual penuh baris demi baris
Pasaran Awal (PRE30) Penutup (PRE1) Δ tersirat (pp)
Tłuchowia (1X2) 4.23 4.23 0.0
Lukis (1X2) 4.17 4.17 0.0
Stargard Szczeciński (1X2) 1.54 1.54 0.0
Lebih 2.5 gol 1.56 1.56 0.0
Bawah 2.5 gol 2.21 2.21 0.0

Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.

View technical JSON
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      "btts_no_prob": 0.438,
      "btts_yes_prob": 0.562,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
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    "betting_markets": {
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        "away_played": 32,
        "away_score_rate": 75.0,
        "home_clean_sheet": 7,
        "home_failed_to_score": 13,
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          },
          {
            "away": 2,
            "home": 0,
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          },
          {
            "away": 1,
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            "label": "2-1",
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      "double_chance": {
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        "draw_pct": 45.0,
        "home_pct": 10.0,
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        "lean_label": "Draw"
      },
      "over_under": {
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        "avg_total": 3.0,
        "away_avg_scored": 1.5,
        "confidence": "medium",
        "home_avg_scored": 1.0,
        "over_prob": 57.7,
        "pick": "Over 2.5",
        "pick_prob": 57.7,
        "source": "avg",
        "strong_pick": false,
        "total_expected": 3.0,
        "under_prob": 42.3
      },
      "prob_source": null,
      "value_bet_enhanced": null
    },
    "closing_line_bundle": {
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      "closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
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      "has_data": true,
      "home_team": "T\u0142uchowia",
      "largest_move_kind": null,
      "max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
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          "gap_pp": 20.76,
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          "gap_pp": 4.36,
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      "movement": [
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          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 21.0,
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          "implied_closing_pct": 21.31,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 21.31,
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        {
          "closing": 1.54,
          "early": 1.54,
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          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
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          "closing": 1.56,
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          "implied_closing_pct": 58.62,
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      "movement_negligible": true,
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      "most_likely": {
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    "home_xg": 1.45,
    "homepage_pick": null,
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        "ev_yes": -0.288,
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        "id": "btts",
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        "under_prob": 42.3,
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        "sort_key": 5207.52,
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        "sort_key": 813.0,
        "tier": "risk",
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        "top_prob": 11.0
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      "away_team_id": 6959,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/6959.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Stargard Szczeci\u0144ski",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/pl.svg",
      "country_name": "Poland",
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      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_id": 26181,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/26181.webp",
      "home_team_name": "T\u0142uchowia",
      "league_country": "Poland",
      "league_id": 781,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/781.webp",
      "league_name": "III liga \u2013 Grupa II",
      "league_season": 2025,
      "match_date": "2026-05-23 16:00:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS"
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            "calibration": {
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              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
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          },
          "draw": {
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              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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        "btts": {
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          "best_yes_odd": 1.6,
          "edge_no": 0.1403,
          "edge_yes": -0.1403,
          "ev_available": true,
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          "ev_yes": -0.288,
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          "implied_yes": 0.5853,
          "n_bookmakers": 7,
          "reliability": "medium"
        },
        "ou25": {
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          "best_under_odd": 2.4,
          "edge_over": -0.0199,
          "edge_under": 0.0199,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_over": -0.0941,
          "ev_under": 0.0152,
          "implied_over": 0.5969,
          "implied_under": 0.4031,
          "n_bookmakers": 8,
          "reliability": "medium"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 2.7,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
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      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-04-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.1.0"
      },
      "balanced_alternative": null,
      "best_tracked_ev": 0.3154,
      "confidence": 6.0,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
        "breakdown": [
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          "pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
          "pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
        ],
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          "Primary line identified (+1.0)",
          "Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
        ],
        "score": 6.0
      },
      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": false,
        "1x2_open_contest": true,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
      },
      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
      },
      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
        "scoring_type": "neutral",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.445,
          "draw_prob": 0.2567,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.4177,
          "over_prob": 0.577,
          "total_xg": 2.7,
          "under_prob": 0.423,
          "xg_diff": 0.2
        },
        "type": "neutral",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
      },
      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "decision": "small_edge",
          "edge": 0.0286,
          "ev": 0.0094,
          "implied_prob": 0.21,
          "max_ev_side": "home",
          "model_prob": 0.4177,
          "side": "home",
          "side_label": "T\u0142uchowia"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.1403,
          "ev": 0.3154,
          "implied_prob": 0.4147,
          "model_prob": 0.555,
          "side": "no",
          "value_side": "no"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "small_edge",
          "edge": 0.0199,
          "ev": 0.0152,
          "implied_prob": 0.4031,
          "model_prob": 0.423,
          "side": "under",
          "value_side": "under"
        }
      },
      "match_id": 1410755,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "bet",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": true,
        "code": "clear_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.3154,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 1.0,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.3257,
        "draw": 0.2567,
        "home": 0.4177
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "high_total_goals"
      ],
      "secondary_pick": null,
      "secondary_picks": [],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Stargard Szczeci\u0144ski",
        "home": "T\u0142uchowia"
      },
      "top_pick": {
        "composite_score": 0.175047,
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.3154,
        "implied_prob": 0.4147,
        "market": "btts",
        "model_prob": 0.555,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "no",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
      },
      "valid_markets_count": 1
    }
  },
  "fixture_id": 1410755,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-05-23T20:34:00.561650+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}

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III liga – Grupa II III liga – Grupa II — Kedudukan
# PASUKAN P M S K Mata
1 Zawisza Bydgoszcz 34 25 5 4 80
2 Luzino 34 24 4 6 76
3 Polonia Środa 34 20 6 8 66
4 Lipno Stęszew 34 15 6 13 51
5 Noteć Czarnków 34 14 7 14 49
6 Elana Toruń 34 14 7 13 49
7 Lech Poznań II 34 14 7 13 49
8 Flota Świnoujście 34 14 7 13 49
9 Wda Świecie 34 14 6 14 48
10 Unia Swarzędz 34 13 8 13 47
11 Kluczevia Stargard 34 13 7 14 46
12 Stargard Szczeciński 34 12 9 13 45
13 Victoria Września 34 13 3 18 42
14 Pogoń Szczecin II 34 12 5 17 41
15 Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce 34 10 9 15 39
16 Cartusia Kartuzy 34 11 5 18 38
17 Tłuchowia 34 8 6 19 31
18 Wybrzeże Rewalskie Rewal 34 3 6 25 15
# PASUKAN P J B +/- Mata
1 Luzino 34 79 39 +40 76
2 Pogoń Szczecin II 34 75 66 +9 41
3 Zawisza Bydgoszcz 34 73 23 +50 80
4 Polonia Środa 34 67 43 +24 66
5 Lech Poznań II 34 67 54 +13 49
6 Stargard Szczeciński 34 56 51 +5 45
7 Kluczevia Stargard 34 54 43 +11 46
8 Noteć Czarnków 34 49 46 +3 49
9 Elana Toruń 34 49 55 -6 49
10 Flota Świnoujście 34 48 52 -4 49
11 Unia Swarzędz 34 47 41 +6 47
12 Lipno Stęszew 34 47 54 -7 51
13 Wda Świecie 34 44 66 -22 48
14 Victoria Września 34 41 46 -5 42
15 Cartusia Kartuzy 34 38 51 -13 38
16 Tłuchowia 34 37 66 -29 31
17 Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce 34 35 46 -11 39
18 Wybrzeże Rewalskie Rewal 34 20 84 -64 15