FSV Mainz 05 II vs Freiburg II Statistics & Analysis

{
  "bundle_version": 1,
  "content_hash": "06b3586e4f94e147a846bb892d6389a0e95f85ce19bebdb68613a12a5890a760",
  "decision_algo_version": "2.1.0",
  "facts": {
    "ai_fp": {
      "away_predicted_xg": 1.25,
      "away_win_prob": null,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
      "draw_prob": null,
      "fair_odds_away": null,
      "fair_odds_draw": null,
      "fair_odds_home": null,
      "home_predicted_xg": 1.45,
      "home_win_prob": null,
      "prediction_confidence": "none"
    },
    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "Double chance : draw or Freiburg II",
      "main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
      "percent_away": "45%",
      "percent_draw": "45%",
      "percent_home": "10%",
      "winner_name": "Freiburg II"
    },
    "away_xg": 1.25,
    "betting_insight": {
      "bet_label": "FSV Mainz 05 II",
      "confidence": null,
      "main_pick_meta": {
        "confidence": "low",
        "display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
        "edge": -0.1014,
        "edge_gap": 0.092,
        "market": "1X2",
        "market_prob": 0.5191,
        "model_prob": 0.4177,
        "pick_type": "no_strong",
        "probabilities": {
          "away": 32.6,
          "draw": 25.7,
          "home": 41.8
        },
        "reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
        "selection": null,
        "selection_name": null
      },
      "market_comparison": [],
      "risk_color": null,
      "risk_key": null,
      "stacked_market": null,
      "value_bet": null
    },
    "betting_markets": {
      "btts": {
        "away_clean_sheet": 3,
        "away_failed_to_score": 2,
        "away_played": 33,
        "away_score_rate": 93.9,
        "home_clean_sheet": 7,
        "home_failed_to_score": 6,
        "home_played": 33,
        "home_score_rate": 81.8,
        "no_prob": 23.1,
        "pick": "Yes",
        "pick_prob": 76.9,
        "source": "stats",
        "strong_pick": false,
        "yes_prob": 76.9
      },
      "correct_score": {
        "away_expected": 1.65,
        "home_expected": 1.9,
        "scores": [
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-1",
            "prob": 9.0
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-1",
            "prob": 8.6
          },
          {
            "away": 2,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-2",
            "prob": 7.4
          },
          {
            "away": 2,
            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-2",
            "prob": 7.1
          },
          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-0",
            "prob": 5.5
          }
        ],
        "source": "avg"
      },
      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
          {
            "key": "1X",
            "label": "FSV Mainz 05 II or Draw",
            "prob": 55.0
          },
          {
            "key": "12",
            "label": "FSV Mainz 05 II or Freiburg II",
            "prob": 55.0
          },
          {
            "key": "X2",
            "label": "Draw or Freiburg II",
            "prob": 90.0
          }
        ],
        "pick_key": "X2",
        "pick_label": "Draw or Freiburg II",
        "pick_prob": 90.0
      },
      "match_winner": {
        "away_pct": 45.0,
        "draw_pct": 45.0,
        "home_pct": 10.0,
        "lean_key": "draw",
        "lean_label": "Draw"
      },
      "over_under": {
        "api_hint": null,
        "avg_total": 3.55,
        "away_avg_scored": 2.1,
        "confidence": "high",
        "home_avg_scored": 1.6,
        "over_prob": 68.8,
        "pick": "Under 2.5",
        "pick_prob": 68.8,
        "source": "avg",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "total_expected": 3.55,
        "under_prob": 31.2
      },
      "prob_source": null,
      "value_bet_enhanced": null
    },
    "closing_line_bundle": {
      "away_team": "Freiburg II",
      "closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "closing_capture": "PRE1",
      "early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "early_capture": "PRE30",
      "has_data": true,
      "home_team": "FSV Mainz 05 II",
      "largest_move_kind": null,
      "max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
      "model_vs_closing": [
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 51.91,
          "gap_pp": -10.14,
          "kind": "1x2_h",
          "model_pct": 41.77
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 21.75,
          "gap_pp": 3.91,
          "kind": "1x2_d",
          "model_pct": 25.67
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 26.34,
          "gap_pp": 6.23,
          "kind": "1x2_a",
          "model_pct": 32.57
        }
      ],
      "movement": [
        {
          "closing": 1.71,
          "early": 1.71,
          "implied_closing_pct": 51.91,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 51.91,
          "kind": "1x2_h"
        },
        {
          "closing": 4.08,
          "early": 4.08,
          "implied_closing_pct": 21.75,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 21.75,
          "kind": "1x2_d"
        },
        {
          "closing": 3.37,
          "early": 3.37,
          "implied_closing_pct": 26.34,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 26.34,
          "kind": "1x2_a"
        }
      ],
      "movement_negligible": true,
      "same_bookmaker": true,
      "top_value_gap": {
        "gap_pp": 6.2,
        "kind": "1x2_a"
      }
    },
    "correct_score_insight": {
      "best_value": null,
      "most_likely": {
        "label": "1-1",
        "prob": 9.0
      }
    },
    "home_xg": 1.45,
    "homepage_pick": null,
    "market_cards": [
      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_over": -0.1056,
        "ev_under": 0.17,
        "featured": true,
        "id": "ou_2_5",
        "max_ev": 0.17,
        "over_prob": 68.8,
        "sort_key": 10153.0,
        "tier": "best",
        "under_prob": 31.2,
        "value_side": "under"
      },
      {
        "decision": "lean",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_no": -0.2146,
        "ev_yes": -0.0003,
        "featured": false,
        "id": "btts",
        "max_ev": -0.0003,
        "no_prob": 23.1,
        "sort_key": 4049.958,
        "tier": "lean",
        "value_side": "yes",
        "yes_prob": 76.9
      },
      {
        "decision": "no_bet",
        "ev": -0.2006,
        "ev_available": true,
        "featured": false,
        "id": "1x2",
        "implied_prob": 0.5191,
        "max_ev": -0.0553,
        "model_prob": 0.4177,
        "side_label": "FSV Mainz 05 II",
        "sort_key": 1786.175,
        "tier": "bad_ev"
      },
      {
        "featured": false,
        "id": "correct_score",
        "sort_key": 807.0,
        "tier": "risk",
        "top_label": "1-1",
        "top_prob": 9.0
      }
    ],
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 9363,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/9363.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Freiburg II",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/de.svg",
      "country_name": "Germany",
      "fixture_id": 1408966,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_id": 1331,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1331.webp",
      "home_team_name": "FSV Mainz 05 II",
      "league_country": "Germany",
      "league_id": 86,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/86.webp",
      "league_name": "Regionalliga - SudWest",
      "league_season": 2025,
      "match_date": "2026-05-16 12:00:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS"
    },
    "match_decision": {
      "confidence": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.5
      },
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.272,
            "best_odd": 3.37,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0169,
            "ev": -0.0553,
            "implied_prob": 0.2634,
            "model_prob": 0.3257,
            "p_final": 0.2803
          },
          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.1883,
            "best_odd": 4.08,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0074,
            "ev": -0.0823,
            "implied_prob": 0.2175,
            "model_prob": 0.2567,
            "p_final": 0.2249
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.5087,
            "best_odd": 1.71,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0516,
            "ev": -0.2006,
            "implied_prob": 0.5191,
            "model_prob": 0.4177,
            "p_final": 0.4675
          }
        },
        "btts": {
          "best_no_odd": 3.4,
          "best_yes_odd": 1.3,
          "edge_no": -0.0608,
          "edge_yes": 0.0608,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_no": -0.2146,
          "ev_yes": -0.0003,
          "implied_no": 0.2918,
          "implied_yes": 0.7082,
          "n_bookmakers": 5,
          "reliability": "medium"
        },
        "ou25": {
          "best_over_odd": 1.3,
          "best_under_odd": 3.75,
          "edge_over": -0.037,
          "edge_under": 0.037,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_over": -0.1056,
          "ev_under": 0.17,
          "implied_over": 0.725,
          "implied_under": 0.275,
          "n_bookmakers": 5,
          "reliability": "medium"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 2.7,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-04-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.1.0"
      },
      "balanced_alternative": null,
      "best_tracked_ev": 0.17,
      "confidence": 4.0,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
        ],
        "score": 4.0
      },
      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": false,
        "1x2_open_contest": true,
        "grade": "C",
        "stake_factor": 0.0
      },
      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
      },
      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
        "scoring_type": "neutral",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.769,
          "draw_prob": 0.2567,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.4177,
          "over_prob": 0.688,
          "total_xg": 2.7,
          "under_prob": 0.312,
          "xg_diff": 0.2
        },
        "type": "neutral",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
      },
      "hero_display_pick": {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.17,
        "hero_display_only": true,
        "implied_prob": 0.275,
        "market": "ou_2_5",
        "model_prob": 0.312,
        "not_dominant": true,
        "risk_band": "speculative",
        "risk_tier": "hero_display",
        "side": "under",
        "slot": "hero_display"
      },
      "longshot_picks": [
        {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "ev": 0.17,
          "implied_prob": 0.275,
          "market": "ou_2_5",
          "model_prob": 0.312,
          "not_dominant": true,
          "risk_band": "speculative",
          "risk_tier": "longshot",
          "side": "under",
          "slot": "longshot"
        }
      ],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "decision": "no_bet",
          "edge": -0.0516,
          "ev": -0.2006,
          "implied_prob": 0.5191,
          "max_ev_side": "away",
          "model_prob": 0.4177,
          "side": "home",
          "side_label": "FSV Mainz 05 II"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "lean",
          "edge": 0.0608,
          "ev": -0.0003,
          "implied_prob": 0.7082,
          "model_prob": 0.769,
          "side": "yes",
          "value_side": "yes"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.037,
          "ev": 0.17,
          "implied_prob": 0.275,
          "model_prob": 0.312,
          "side": "under",
          "value_side": "under"
        }
      },
      "match_id": 1408966,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "high_risk",
        "actionable": false,
        "clear_edge": false,
        "code": "longshot",
        "execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
        "insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_longshot_only",
        "max_valid_ev": 0.17,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 0.1,
        "use_split_strip": true
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.3257,
        "draw": 0.2567,
        "home": 0.4177
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "no_ev_1x2",
        "high_total_goals",
        "longshot_high_variance"
      ],
      "secondary_pick": null,
      "secondary_picks": [],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Freiburg II",
        "home": "FSV Mainz 05 II"
      },
      "top_pick": null,
      "valid_markets_count": 1
    }
  },
  "fixture_id": 1408966,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-05-16T12:00:30.651638+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}