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Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the model’s highlighted side (or lean) to what happened at full time.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Kozakken Boys Quick Boys ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 0-1, 0-2, 2-1 1-2 ✔ Correct
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View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "dd72b7b1169247bab198e3d09f1b38f7ae71023f65f031ad110f9d91103496fa",
"decision_algo_version": "2.1.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.25,
"away_win_prob": null,
"btts_no_prob": 0.438,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.562,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": null,
"fair_odds_away": null,
"fair_odds_draw": null,
"fair_odds_home": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.45,
"home_win_prob": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.506,
"prediction_confidence": "none",
"under_25_prob": 0.494
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Quick Boys",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Quick Boys"
},
"away_xg": 1.25,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Kozakken Boys",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.2073,
"edge_gap": 0.092,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.2104,
"model_prob": 0.4177,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 32.6,
"draw": 25.7,
"home": 41.8
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": null
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 10,
"away_failed_to_score": 3,
"away_played": 33,
"away_score_rate": 90.9,
"home_clean_sheet": 7,
"home_failed_to_score": 6,
"home_played": 33,
"home_score_rate": 81.8,
"no_prob": 25.6,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 74.4,
"source": "stats",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 74.4
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.8,
"home_expected": 1.2,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 10.8
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.0
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-2",
"prob": 8.1
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 6.5
}
],
"source": "avg"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Kozakken Boys or Draw",
"prob": 55.0
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Kozakken Boys or Quick Boys",
"prob": 55.0
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Quick Boys",
"prob": 90.0
}
],
"pick_key": "X2",
"pick_label": "Draw or Quick Boys",
"pick_prob": 90.0
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 45.0,
"draw_pct": 45.0,
"home_pct": 10.0,
"lean_key": "draw",
"lean_label": "Draw"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 3.0,
"away_avg_scored": 2.0,
"confidence": "medium",
"home_avg_scored": 1.4,
"over_prob": 57.7,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 57.7,
"source": "avg",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 3.0,
"under_prob": 42.3
},
"prob_source": null,
"value_bet_enhanced": null
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Quick Boys",
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Kozakken Boys",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 21.04,
"gap_pp": 20.73,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 41.77
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 21.34,
"gap_pp": 4.33,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 25.67
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 57.62,
"gap_pp": -25.06,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 32.57
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 62.09,
"gap_pp": -4.39,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 57.7
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 37.91,
"gap_pp": 4.39,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 42.3
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 4.3,
"early": 4.3,
"implied_closing_pct": 21.04,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 21.04,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 4.24,
"early": 4.24,
"implied_closing_pct": 21.34,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 21.34,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 1.57,
"early": 1.57,
"implied_closing_pct": 57.62,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 57.62,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.49,
"early": 1.49,
"implied_closing_pct": 62.09,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 62.09,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.44,
"early": 2.44,
"implied_closing_pct": 37.91,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 37.91,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 20.7,
"kind": "1x2_h"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 10.8
}
},
"home_xg": 1.45,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.4112,
"ev_yes": 0.183,
"featured": true,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.183,
"no_prob": 25.6,
"sort_key": 10314.7,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 74.4
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.0768,
"ev_under": 0.0406,
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0406,
"over_prob": 57.7,
"sort_key": 10036.54,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 42.3,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "small_edge",
"ev": 0.0275,
"ev_available": true,
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.2104,
"max_ev": 0.0275,
"model_prob": 0.4177,
"side_label": "Kozakken Boys",
"sort_key": 5222.0,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 812.4,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 10.8
}
],
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 1272,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1272.webp",
"away_team_name": "Quick Boys",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/nl.svg",
"country_name": "Netherlands",
"fixture_id": 1399271,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_id": 1242,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1242.webp",
"home_team_name": "Kozakken Boys",
"league_country": "Netherlands",
"league_id": 492,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/492.webp",
"league_name": "Tweede Divisie",
"league_season": 2025,
"match_date": "2026-05-23 13:30:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.3745,
"best_odd": 1.57,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0938,
"ev": -0.2426,
"implied_prob": 0.5762,
"model_prob": 0.3257,
"p_final": 0.4824
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.187,
"best_odd": 4.24,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0081,
"ev": -0.061,
"implied_prob": 0.2134,
"model_prob": 0.2567,
"p_final": 0.2215
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.1378,
"best_odd": 4.3,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0286,
"ev": 0.0275,
"implied_prob": 0.2104,
"model_prob": 0.4177,
"p_final": 0.239
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 2.3,
"best_yes_odd": 1.59,
"edge_no": -0.1554,
"edge_yes": 0.1554,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.4112,
"ev_yes": 0.183,
"implied_no": 0.4114,
"implied_yes": 0.5886,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 1.6,
"best_under_odd": 2.46,
"edge_over": -0.035,
"edge_under": 0.035,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.0768,
"ev_under": 0.0406,
"implied_over": 0.612,
"implied_under": 0.388,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.7,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-04-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.1.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.183,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
"scoring_type": "neutral",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.744,
"draw_prob": 0.2567,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4177,
"over_prob": 0.577,
"total_xg": 2.7,
"under_prob": 0.423,
"xg_diff": 0.2
},
"type": "neutral",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.0286,
"ev": 0.0275,
"implied_prob": 0.2104,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.4177,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Kozakken Boys"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.1554,
"ev": 0.183,
"implied_prob": 0.5886,
"model_prob": 0.744,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.035,
"ev": 0.0406,
"implied_prob": 0.388,
"model_prob": 0.423,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1399271,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.183,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3257,
"draw": 0.2567,
"home": 0.4177
},
"reason_codes": [
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Quick Boys",
"home": "Kozakken Boys"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.136152,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.183,
"implied_prob": 0.5886,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.744,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3
}
},
"fixture_id": 1399271,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-05-23T18:43:04.527700+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
How to use this
- Focus on the Primary line when you want one actionable idea.
- Do not parlay many thin-edge picks together; edges do not add reliably.
- Treat longshots as optional, high-stake-sizing plays only.
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Tweede Divisie — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Quick Boys | 33 | 18 | 10 | 5 | 63 |
| 2 | De Treffers | 33 | 18 | 8 | 7 | 62 |
| 3 | Hoek | 33 | 19 | 5 | 9 | 62 |
| 4 | Spakenburg | 33 | 16 | 8 | 9 | 56 |
| 5 | Rijnsburgse Boys | 33 | 15 | 8 | 10 | 53 |
| 6 | HHC | 33 | 16 | 5 | 12 | 53 |
| 7 | Katwijk | 33 | 14 | 7 | 12 | 49 |
| 8 | Almere City II | 33 | 14 | 5 | 14 | 47 |
| 9 | Kozakken Boys | 33 | 13 | 8 | 12 | 47 |
| 10 | Sparta Rotterdam II | 33 | 12 | 9 | 12 | 45 |
| 11 | AFC Amsterdam | 33 | 12 | 9 | 12 | 45 |
| 12 | Barendrecht | 33 | 13 | 4 | 16 | 43 |
| 13 | RKAV Volendam | 33 | 13 | 3 | 17 | 42 |
| 14 | GVVV Veenendaal | 33 | 12 | 6 | 15 | 42 |
| 15 | Koninklijke HFC | 33 | 11 | 3 | 19 | 36 |
| 16 | Ijsselmeervogels | 33 | 9 | 4 | 20 | 31 |
| 17 | Excelsior Maassluis | 33 | 7 | 7 | 19 | 28 |
| 18 | ACV | 33 | 6 | 9 | 18 | 27 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spakenburg | 33 | 70 | 57 | +13 | 56 |
| 2 | Sparta Rotterdam II | 33 | 70 | 69 | +1 | 45 |
| 3 | Rijnsburgse Boys | 33 | 69 | 55 | +14 | 53 |
| 4 | Quick Boys | 33 | 67 | 34 | +33 | 63 |
| 5 | Almere City II | 33 | 65 | 58 | +7 | 47 |
| 6 | De Treffers | 33 | 62 | 35 | +27 | 62 |
| 7 | Barendrecht | 33 | 61 | 82 | -21 | 43 |
| 8 | Hoek | 33 | 58 | 35 | +23 | 62 |
| 9 | Katwijk | 33 | 56 | 54 | +2 | 49 |
| 10 | HHC | 33 | 55 | 42 | +13 | 53 |
| 11 | RKAV Volendam | 33 | 50 | 55 | -5 | 42 |
| 12 | GVVV Veenendaal | 33 | 48 | 62 | -14 | 42 |
| 13 | Kozakken Boys | 33 | 46 | 53 | -7 | 47 |
| 14 | AFC Amsterdam | 33 | 44 | 51 | -7 | 45 |
| 15 | Ijsselmeervogels | 33 | 44 | 61 | -17 | 31 |
| 16 | ACV | 33 | 44 | 69 | -25 | 27 |
| 17 | Excelsior Maassluis | 33 | 37 | 57 | -20 | 28 |
| 18 | Koninklijke HFC | 33 | 30 | 47 | -17 | 36 |
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