Statistik / Bola Sepak / Portugal. Segunda Liga / Marítimo vs Chaves

Marítimo vs Chaves Statistics & Analysis

Marítimo Marítimo
May 15, 2026 - 18:00
1 1.25
3 0.95
xG Accuracy: 53%
Chaves Chaves
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Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa

Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.

  • Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
  • Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Ya ✖ tak betul
  • 1X2 Marítimo Chaves ✖ tak betul
  • Cerapan skor tepat 1-0, 1-1, 0-0, 0-1, 2-0 1-3 ✖ tak betul

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 17:39 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1480485

Closing Odds 3.64
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Chaves win · Marítimo 1–3 Chaves
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Intelijen pasaran

Bacaan selepas pilihan utama: bagaimana suapan penutup berprioriti bergerak berbanding model.

Ringkasan pasaran

Pasaran kekal stabil menjelang sepakan. Tiada anjakan implied ketara antara PRE30 dan PRE1 pada snapshot berprioriti.

Walaupun pergerakan lewat kecil, model masih menilai Lukis (1X2),Bawah 2.5 gol jauh melebihi implied snapshot penutupan — bacaan statik "model vs harga", bukan kejaran steam.

Model masih melebihi implied penutupan pada Bawah 2.5 gol kira-kira 18.2 mata peratus — isyarat salah harga paling jelas pada halaman ini.

Model vs implied penutup

Pasaran Model % Implied penutup % Jurang (pp)
Marítimo (1X2) 43.2 45.0 -1.8
Lukis (1X2) 28.7 26.1 +2.6
Chaves (1X2) 28.1 28.9 -0.8
Lebih 2.5 gol 37.7 55.9 -18.2
Bawah 2.5 gol 62.3 44.1 +18.2
Apa maksudnya

Secara ringkas: model kira-kira 62.3% pada Bawah 2.5 gol, manakala snapshot penutup menunjukkan kira-kira 44.1%. Bezanya — kira-kira 18.2 mata peratus — ialah jurang model-vs-pasaran terbesar yang ditonjolkan di halaman ini.

Ringkas: "implied penutup" ialah kebarangkalian terbit daripada odds akhir yang ditangkap (selepas de-vig ringkas). "Jurang (pp)" = peratus model tolak implied tersebut, dalam mata peratus (pp).

Pergerakan garisan menjelang sepakan mula

Satu buku prioriti setiap snapshot (bukan semua). Laluan tangkapan: PRE30 → PRE1 · Buku: Pinnacle

Dalam kurungan pada lajur: Penutup = snapshot pertama tersedia ikut PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Awal = pertama dalam PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 yang berbeza daripada Penutup.

Odds terperinci dilipat di bawah — pergerakan implied (de-vig) boleh diabaikan.

Lihat jadual penuh baris demi baris
Pasaran Awal (PRE30) Penutup (PRE1) Δ tersirat (pp)
Marítimo (1X2) 2.11 2.11 0.0
Lukis (1X2) 3.64 3.64 0.0
Chaves (1X2) 3.28 3.28 0.0
Lebih 2.5 gol 1.68 1.68 0.0
Bawah 2.5 gol 2.13 2.13 0.0

Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.

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        "pick_prob": 58.3,
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        "strong_pick": true,
        "total_expected": 2.35,
        "under_prob": 58.3
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    },
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      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/223.webp",
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      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/pt.svg",
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      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/214.webp",
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          "n_bookmakers": 10,
          "reliability": "medium"
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      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 2.2,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
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      "algorithm": {
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      "best_tracked_ev": 0.2418,
      "confidence": 6.0,
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        "score": 6.0
      },
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        "1x2_dominant": false,
        "1x2_open_contest": true,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
      },
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        "gap": null,
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      },
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        "scoring_type": "balanced",
        "signals": {
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          "draw_prob": 0.287,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.4317,
          "over_prob": 0.417,
          "total_xg": 2.2,
          "under_prob": 0.583,
          "xg_diff": 0.3
        },
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        "typing_weights_enabled": true
      },
      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "decision": "no_bet",
          "edge": -0.0079,
          "ev": -0.0676,
          "implied_prob": 0.4499,
          "max_ev_side": "draw",
          "model_prob": 0.4317,
          "side": "home",
          "side_label": "Mar\u00edtimo"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "lean",
          "edge": 0.0123,
          "ev": -0.0239,
          "implied_prob": 0.4177,
          "model_prob": 0.43,
          "side": "no",
          "value_side": "no"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.1295,
          "ev": 0.2418,
          "implied_prob": 0.4535,
          "model_prob": 0.583,
          "side": "under",
          "value_side": "under"
        }
      },
      "match_id": 1398270,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "bet",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": true,
        "code": "clear_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.2418,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 1.0,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.2813,
        "draw": 0.287,
        "home": 0.4317
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "no_ev_1x2"
      ],
      "secondary_pick": null,
      "secondary_picks": [],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Chaves",
        "home": "Mar\u00edtimo"
      },
      "top_pick": {
        "composite_score": 0.098679,
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.2418,
        "implied_prob": 0.4535,
        "market": "ou_2_5",
        "model_prob": 0.583,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "under",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
      },
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    }
  },
  "fixture_id": 1398270,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-05-17T15:01:18.907404+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}

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Langgan Sekarang
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Segunda Liga Segunda Liga — Kedudukan
# PASUKAN P M S K Mata
1 Marítimo 34 20 6 8 66
2 Academico Viseu 34 17 8 9 59
3 Torreense 34 18 5 11 59
4 Vizela 34 14 9 11 51
5 FC Porto B 34 15 6 13 51
6 União de Leiria 34 13 11 10 50
7 Leixões 34 15 5 14 50
8 Feirense 34 12 10 12 46
9 Chaves 34 13 6 15 45
10 Benfica B 34 11 11 12 44
11 Felgueiras 1932 34 11 11 12 44
12 Lusitânia Lourosa 34 11 10 13 43
13 Sporting CP B 34 13 3 18 42
14 Penafiel 34 11 8 15 41
15 Portimonense 34 11 7 16 40
16 Farense 34 10 10 14 40
17 Pacos Ferreira 34 9 12 13 39
18 Oliveirense 34 8 10 16 34
# PASUKAN P J B +/- Mata
1 Academico Viseu 34 58 33 +25 59
2 União de Leiria 34 52 46 +6 50
3 Marítimo 34 50 29 +21 66
4 Torreense 34 46 33 +13 59
5 Leixões 34 46 55 -9 50
6 Lusitânia Lourosa 34 44 52 -8 43
7 Benfica B 34 43 44 -1 44
8 Chaves 34 42 40 +2 45
9 Sporting CP B 34 41 34 +7 42
10 FC Porto B 34 41 42 -1 51
11 Vizela 34 39 40 -1 51
12 Portimonense 34 39 49 -10 40
13 Penafiel 34 37 39 -2 41
14 Feirense 34 37 40 -3 46
15 Felgueiras 1932 34 34 38 -4 44
16 Pacos Ferreira 34 34 48 -14 39
17 Oliveirense 34 34 49 -15 34
18 Farense 34 31 37 -6 40
# PASUKAN P xG xGC +/- Mata
1 Marítimo 34 9.6 5.5 +4.1 66
2 Chaves 34 7.5 4.3 +3.2 45
3 Academico Viseu 34 8.5 6.2 +2.3 59
4 Feirense 34 2.9 1.1 +1.8 46
5 Leixões 34 7.9 7.1 +0.8 50
6 Portimonense 34 6.2 5.4 +0.8 40
7 Benfica B 34 4.1 3.5 +0.6 44
8 Felgueiras 1932 34 7.2 6.7 +0.5 44
9 União de Leiria 34 8.6 8.2 +0.4 50
10 Sporting CP B 34 3.6 3.2 +0.4 42
11 Farense 34 3.8 4.2 -0.4 40
12 Lusitânia Lourosa 34 7.6 8.5 -0.9 43
13 Vizela 34 3.1 4.4 -1.3 51
14 Oliveirense 34 6.8 8.7 -1.9 34
15 Torreense 34 3.1 5.0 -1.9 59
16 Penafiel 34 4.7 7.3 -2.6 41
17 FC Porto B 34 4.0 6.7 -2.7 51
18 Pacos Ferreira 34 4.0 7.3 -3.3 39